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Which developing countries are on track to become developed by 2030 and 2050?

developing countries developed countries 2030 2050 africa asia latin america

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#1
Eyalin

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Hey guys,

 

Sorry, I haven't been on this forum in a long time. I've had this question in my head for quite some time now and thought I should finally get around to posting it. This is my first post, by the way.

 

Which developing countries are on track to become developed by 2030? And which ones by 2050?

 

Which developed countries might fall back into underdevelopment?

 

What should be the criteria for considering a country developed?

 

What (realistic) steps must a developing country take in order to become developed? (I'm not looking to hear "must have low levels of corruption," I wanna hear something realistic and doable.)

 

Should Chile and Uruguay finally be considered developed? I've seen various stats on Wikipedia for these two countries and in my opinion they should be considered developed.

 

Will there be new terminologies like 'hyperdeveloped countries' and 'Type I countries' by 2100 for developed countries that will be far ahead of their counterparts?

 

I'm also really looking to hear what you guys have to say about African countries and how you think some of them will turn out by 2050.

 

All are welcome to post and give their opinions whether factual or not, and to go off on tangents if they like (I know I certainly do).

 

 



#2
Rainbow Frog

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Hey guys,

 

Sorry, I haven't been on this forum in a long time. I've had this question in my head for quite some time now and thought I should finally get around to posting it. This is my first post, by the way.

 

Which developing countries are on track to become developed by 2030? And which ones by 2050?

 

Which developed countries might fall back into underdevelopment?

 

What should be the criteria for considering a country developed?

 

What (realistic) steps must a developing country take in order to become developed? (I'm not looking to hear "must have low levels of corruption," I wanna hear something realistic and doable.)

 

Should Chile and Uruguay finally be considered developed? I've seen various stats on Wikipedia for these two countries and in my opinion they should be considered developed.

 

Will there be new terminologies like 'hyperdeveloped countries' and 'Type I countries' by 2100 for developed countries that will be far ahead of their counterparts?

 

I'm also really looking to hear what you guys have to say about African countries and how you think some of them will turn out by 2050.

 

All are welcome to post and give their opinions whether factual or not, and to go off on tangents if they like (I know I certainly do).

 

I would consider the following to be hallmarks of a developed nation:

 

  • Vast majority of population has access to all basic human needs
  • Technology must be a most 10 yrs behind leading technological countries
  • No constant warfare or civil unrest
  • Vast majority of population is educated
  • Average life expectancy should be at least 70 yrs
  • Average income should be reasonably high
  • Low corruption too

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#3
Mike the average

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by 2050 most of SE Asia, India, this is the fastest moving region in the world

 

Turkey (if it isn't already)

 

Nigeria


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#4
Eyalin

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Okay, but I'm really interested to know how governments in developed countries get this done; like what structures and policies they have in place.

 

Another point: Do you think it would be against the interest of certain corporations and governments for certain countries (e.g. the mineral-rich Congo) to become stable and developed?

 

I think my country should decriminalise homosexuality to attain political and economic support from the West, limit trade with China, send delegations to successful countries like Singapore to learn what we can from them, implement a programme in which people can be sent to leading universities and polytechnics at a low cost and be brought back in order to build our knowledge economy, etc. I've noticed how a lot of successful people in my country tend to have acquired experience from abroad. We should also implement tribal quotas in government for social cohesion.

 

Thanks what I think so far but I'm looking to learn more.



#5
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I believe I've heard somewhere that China will be developed by 2050, which I'd love to see happen. Places like Shanghai are already super modern in a lot of ways.



#6
Eyalin

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by 2050 most of SE Asia, India, this is the fastest moving region in the world

 

Turkey (if it isn't already)

 

Nigeria

I'd place my bets on Turkey and China becoming partially developed by 2050. I say partially because they wouldn't meet the full criteria for being classified as developed. Speaking of which, if we are going to insist on low corruption and high political/social stability, can we say that the US is not fully developed? There's some pretty high level, sophisticated corruption that goes unnoticed and thus unaccounted for in these corruption indexes. Plus it doesn't strike me as politically stable compared to European countries (not taking into account Southern Europe).

 

Nigeria is not going to be developed by 2050. Not with that Boko Haram insurgency and pervasive corruption that makes my country look developed. Though, we are also pretty damn corrupt. Plus they're gonna have a population crisis. In Africa, I think South Africa, Botswana, Rwanda, Tunisia and Morocco will do better.



#7
Zeitgeist123

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south korea (already considered first world )
 
2020:
argentina
chile
poland
hungary
 
2030: 
 
malaysia
turkey
mexico
brazil
thailand
china
 
2050:
 
indonesia
philippines
south africa
india
 
dark horse:
 
egypt
sri lanka 
russia

“Philosophy is a pretty toy if one indulges in it with moderation at the right time of life. But if one pursues it further than one should, it is absolute ruin." - Callicles to Socrates


#8
Eyalin

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south korea (already considered first world )
 
2020:
argentina
chile
poland
hungary
 
2030: 
 
malaysia
turkey
mexico
brazil
thailand
china
 
2050:
 
indonesia
philippines
south africa
india
 
dark horse:
 
egypt
sri lanka 
russia
 
countries that will fall back from developed economy status:
 
 
greece
sweden

 

Interesting you listed Sweden. Why? I could definitely imagine Greece losing developed status.



#9
Zeitgeist123

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UN reports said it according to some sources (sweden becoming 3rd world in 15 years). but upon checking, ALL of the sources were unreliable. seems like a UN report about sweden is being purposedly misinterpreted. so i just removed the category altogether. 


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#10
Jakob

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I would say that China and India will be the big ones. They're already well on their way. (There might be a few other smaller countries)



#11
Frizz

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2060 - China.

2050 - Russia.

2080 - Brazil.

2150 - India.

2050 - South Africa.

2070 - Mexico.
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#12
Eyalin

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2150 for India? Pretty pessimistic, man. By 2150, 'developed' and 'developing' countries might become a tired old concept.



#13
Jakob

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2150 for India? Pretty pessimistic, man. By 2150, 'developed' and 'developing' countries might become a tired old concept.

Definitely. India is already on its way to being developed. By 2150, only a handful of countries will still be undeveloped/developing.



#14
Ewan

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2050 is unlikely for India & China, they're huge countries with vastly different incomes across the board. Some parts of China already are developed but the country is too big to be classified as developed any time soon. There was a thread like this before when I made a larger post but I can't seem to find it. 

 

I think by 2050 almost all small countries in Europe that aren't currently developed will be (so the Baltics for instance, many by 2030 even). Perhaps the case for the Middle East as well. I think some countries in SEA will be developed by 2030 (Malaysia perhaps Thailand) & some by 2050 (Vietnam). I'm not sure Philippines or Indonesia will be, perhaps for the former, probably not for the latter. 

 

Regarding what makes a country developed? Large service sector, small industry & agriculture sectors. High HDI, and preferably low Gini coefficient but I don't think that's crucial at all really (there are countries with low Gini but low HDI like Afghanistan for instance). 

 

800px-2014_UN_Human_Development_Report_Q

 

This is the current world HDI. Note that some countries that are high HDI (dark blue) are not classified as "developed" countries presumably because of their reliance on industry. 



#15
Yuli Ban

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By 2030? China, Vietnam, Malaysia, South Africa, and Brazil most likely. If all goes well, Cuba should get there too. And if the people oust the cartels, then Mexico has a chance too. I expect there will be about two dozen surprises. Also, I doubt countries will lose first world status.

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#16
Jakob

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@Ewan: I can't see the Middle East gaining 1st world status until the late 21st century or beyond. Too unstable and only getting messier.



#17
jamesgera

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The Congo is on its way. They are making deals with China which is bringing in more markets and jobs. It might not be on track by 2030 but life will improve there

#18
Zeitgeist123

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2050 is unlikely for India & China, they're huge countries with vastly different incomes across the board. Some parts of China already are developed but the country is too big to be classified as developed any time soon. There was a thread like this before when I made a larger post but I can't seem to find it. 

 

 

i thought the same, smaller countries with high workforce population would be able to climb up easier. take a look at singapore, they were able to rise up from thrid world to first in more or less just 2 decades. city-states are easier to manage.

 

 

I think some countries in SEA will be developed by 2030 (Malaysia perhaps Thailand) & some by 2050 (Vietnam). I'm not sure Philippines or Indonesia will be, perhaps for the former, probably not for the latter. 

 

 

may i ask how did you come up with this?

 

indonesia, malaysia, thailand, philippines are already newly-industrialised countries (though not yet developed). vietnam is least developed from the previously mentioned and is just trying to crawl back and rise up among its economic peers - laos, cambodia, myanmar, timor leste- though they are rising fast. it will take them a few more decades before the level of economy these tiger cub economies are now. so it is highly unlikely that vietnam will become a first world country in 2050 ahead of indonesia or the philippines.

 

i based my previous list on these:

 

---------------

List the economy of countries that will dominate in 2050:  (only SEA countries are listed below)

Source: HSBC

 

Size of Economy

 

#16: Philippines - $1.7 trillion  (Year 2000 dollars)

#17: Indonesia - $1.5 trillion (Year 2000 dollars)

#21: Malaysia-  $1.2 trillion (Year 2000 dollars)

#23: Thailand - $856 billion (Year 2000 dollars)

#41: Vietnam -  $451 billion  (Year 2000 dollars)

#42: Singapore - $441 billion (Year 2000 dollars)
 
**

 

Income per capita: 

 

Singapore: $84,405

Malaysia: $29,247

Thailand: $11,674

Philippines: $10,893

Indonesia:  $5,215

Vietnam: $4,335

 

----------------------

----------------------

 

High potential of becoming, among the world's largest economies in the 21st century:

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India, China

N11 -  Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam


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#19
Eyalin

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The Congo is on its way. They are making deals with China which is bringing in more markets and jobs. It might not be on track by 2030 but life will improve there

http://www.news24.co...-riots-20150125.

 

Life will improve, of course, but probably in the next century. Currently DR Congo has the 2nd lowest HDI. The Chinese are there to exploit them and are in collusion with the country's elite. It's the same story elsewhere in Africa.



#20
Futurist

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Hey guys,

 

Sorry, I haven't been on this forum in a long time. I've had this question in my head for quite some time now and thought I should finally get around to posting it. This is my first post, by the way.

 

Which developing countries are on track to become developed by 2030? And which ones by 2050?

 

Which developed countries might fall back into underdevelopment?

 

What should be the criteria for considering a country developed?

 

What (realistic) steps must a developing country take in order to become developed? (I'm not looking to hear "must have low levels of corruption," I wanna hear something realistic and doable.)

 

Should Chile and Uruguay finally be considered developed? I've seen various stats on Wikipedia for these two countries and in my opinion they should be considered developed.

 

Will there be new terminologies like 'hyperdeveloped countries' and 'Type I countries' by 2100 for developed countries that will be far ahead of their counterparts?

 

I'm also really looking to hear what you guys have to say about African countries and how you think some of them will turn out by 2050.

 

All are welcome to post and give their opinions whether factual or not, and to go off on tangents if they like (I know I certainly do).

This link might help answer your question here, depending on how exactly you define "developed":

Pages 29 to 31 in this report show economic projections all the way up to 2050 for various prominent countries: http://blogs.univ-po...s-Paper-208.pdf

Also, the United Nations has some population projections and urbanization projections for every country worldwide, and the U.S. Census Bureau likewise has population projections for every country in the world.

I hope that this helps answer your question here. :)







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