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World's Largest Economy in 2050 and 2100?


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Poll: World's largest economy in... (73 member(s) have cast votes)

2050

  1. Voted United States (27 votes [30.68%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 30.68%

  2. India (7 votes [7.95%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.95%

  3. Brazil (2 votes [2.27%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.27%

  4. Mexico (2 votes [2.27%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.27%

  5. Russian Federation (2 votes [2.27%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.27%

  6. Voted PRC (42 votes [47.73%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 47.73%

  7. Other (6 votes [6.82%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.82%

2100

  1. United States (19 votes [20.88%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 20.88%

  2. India (20 votes [21.98%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 21.98%

  3. Brazil (3 votes [3.30%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 3.30%

  4. Mexico (1 votes [1.10%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.10%

  5. Voted Russian Federation (10 votes [10.99%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.99%

  6. Some place in Africa (4 votes [4.40%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.40%

  7. PRC (19 votes [20.88%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 20.88%

  8. Other (15 votes [16.48%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 16.48%

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#21
Zachemc2

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It's China and India domination in the future.

How could the PRC dominate with a large real estate bubble that will burst before 2020?

#22
Shimmy

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I think you're missing the importance of size.. Tanzania just isn't big enough to ever compete with china purely in that respect, I don't know if its even big enough to contain a population of 300,000,000. China has ten times the area. Unless country borders change massively it's just not going to happen. Plus Africa just doesn't have the political structure or infrastructure to get anywhere fast in the next 100 years in my opinion. Even the climate is an issue with regards to places like Tanzania.

#23
Zachemc2

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I think that Africa will take advantage of the Singularity like Europe did the Industrial Revolution. By 2100, we ought to have developed something that can fit 300 million people. Possibly 2 mile high skyscrapers or a type of virtual reality. We won't need land for farming, as we'll have vertical farms.

#24
KingstonDon

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Can I just call to attention that measuring probability of becoming a considerable economic power totally doesn't hinge on population per se. It hinges not just on how big your workforce is /can be but MUCH more importantly, economic growth rates, political stability - both national and regional -, gross foreign investment ratio, workforce productivity, etc. This is why many of us have no doubt about China and then potentally India, because we can tick most of those boxes off. China had a billion people - 8 times Japan - for a very very long time before it surpassed Japan and that was thanks to intelligent policies.

#25
Shimmy

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Africa will almost definitely be the last place to be affected by the singularity (if it exists). If anything, the increasing rates of technological advancement will just further widen the gap between africa and europe/america/china. Compared to other continents Africa does miniscule amounts of research in computing and the like. Your logic makes no sense to me.

#26
Nick1984

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Since when did a high population = high GDP?

Edited by Nick1984, 23 November 2011 - 06:47 PM.


#27
Zachemc2

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Africa will almost definitely be the last place to be affected by the singularity (if it exists). If anything, the increasing rates of technological advancement will just further widen the gap between africa and europe/america/china. Compared to other continents Africa does miniscule amounts of research in computing and the like. Your logic makes no sense to me.

Africa's economy is growing at about 8 percent a year. And unlike East Asia, it doesn't look like that it will slow down that much into the 21st century.

Since when did a high population = high GDP?

Let's look at a place with 1 billion people versus 10 million people. The place with 10 million people would have to have 1,000 times the per capita GDP than the one with one billion in order to match their total economic size.

#28
truthiness

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Africa is a giant hornet's nest, and it's only going to get worse. With a rising population, the specters of disease, famine, and war will continue to haunt Africa for decades to come. That's not even considering what climate change will do to the continent. I doubt the Sahara or the rainforest will be transforming into idyllic prairies anytime soon. Any local wealth generated will continue to flow into the hands of local ruling powers and the military currently in charge. It's a slow burning disaster down there. Has been ever since colonialization.
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#29
Zachemc2

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I don't think that it will be the paradise like America circa 2100 either, but I do think there will be a large increase in living standards. Coupled with a large increase in population, well, yeah.

#30
Zeitgeist123

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I said that its either China or India, but im placing my bet on India more...

“Philosophy is a pretty toy if one indulges in it with moderation at the right time of life. But if one pursues it further than one should, it is absolute ruin." - Callicles to Socrates


#31
GNR Rvolution

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Aside the the obvious countries like India, China, the US and Russia I can see countries in the equatorial regions doing well in the face of global warming by 2050. Canada, Scandinavian countries like Norway and Finland, Argentina and actually Russia more than any of the other big nations will prosper better in the face of this adversity. I don't see the countries closer to the equator doing so well, ceratinly Africa will simply find it even harder to get out of the poverty trap it is currently in, and I think India will actually suffer pretty badly. Even the US and China will have issues with this, certainly in places like Texas / California / Florida illegal immigration from Mexico will sky-rocket and heatwaves are going to cripple the area. Come 2100 though, assuming that we aren't all dead from 'freaky weather' or war, I would expect to see the effect of those countries who fared better showing regionally. I think that Russia will be another big player by then, although who is running it by then and whether the former eastern bloc countries have been re-absorbed is debatable. China, the US and Germany will be behind them, followed by the countries noted in the 2050 section. Of course, it could all be nonsense...
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#32
Shimmy

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Oh yea, I forgot to actually give my answers. 2050 - United Kingdom 2100 - United Kingdom Basically when the euro weakens so that one pound is worth 6000 Euros, Britain will buy most of Europe and become unbelievably rich and powerful.

#33
Zachemc2

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Oh yea, I forgot to actually give my answers.

2050 - United Kingdom
2100 - United Kingdom

Basically when the euro weakens so that one pound is worth 6000 Euros, Britain will buy most of Europe and become unbelievably rich and powerful.


Or the EU could just change its name to the United Kingdom. But then it would be surpassed by the US and India. Hmm...

Edited by Zachemc2, 24 November 2011 - 11:21 PM.


#34
timetrek

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It's China and India domination in the future.

How could the PRC dominate with a large real estate bubble that will burst before 2020?


Real estate in China will burst even before we reach year 2020. They have all the resources People, Metal, Machinery, Mineral, Military, etc. to cope with it.

#35
Nick1984

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It's China and India domination in the future.

How could the PRC dominate with a large real estate bubble that will burst before 2020?


Real estate in China will burst even before we reach year 2020. They have all the resources People, Metal, Machinery, Mineral, Military, etc. to cope with it.


Precisely, China will continue to grow throughout this century because they're doing what Britain did in the Victorian era and America in the 1950s.

China's growth will only slow when democracy kicks in (once the middle class and domestic market grow to a certain size, the CCP will find it hard to resist reforming again) and trade unions form and raise wages to less profitable levels.

#36
Logically Irrational

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This is what I've been thinking. For a lesser economy, the real estate bubble would be devestating. Of course with China will be able to overcome it. I could see the bubble causing turmoil into the early 2020s, but I don't see a total collapse coming for China.
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

#37
truthiness

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China's growth will only slow when democracy kicks in (once the middle class and domestic market grow to a certain size, the CCP will find it hard to resist reforming again) and trade unions form and raise wages to less profitable levels.


This is a great point. The stark truth China will face is that capitalism and democracy don't mix. Chinese growth is predicated on continued low wages and oppression of the massive lower class, yet growth will lead inexorably lead to a strengthening of that lower class, which will naturally demand higher wages and more freedoms. When that day comes, the Chinese will learn that there is always someone somewhere willing to do your job for less. It may be Africa, or India, or Southeast or Central Asia. It may be each of these, or it may be a matter of increasing automation, but there is no way the Wal-Marts of the world will shell out a living wage or benefits to their mules. They'll find new backs to break.
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#38
Nick1984

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Africa will almost definitely be the last place to be affected by the singularity (if it exists). If anything, the increasing rates of technological advancement will just further widen the gap between africa and europe/america/china. Compared to other continents Africa does miniscule amounts of research in computing and the like. Your logic makes no sense to me.

Africa's economy is growing at about 8 percent a year. And unlike East Asia, it doesn't look like that it will slow down that much into the 21st century.


Africa's economy is worth nothing though, what's 8 percent of nothing Zachemc2? That's right, nothing, it's growing nothing per year.

#39
Logically Irrational

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^^ Hyperbole, but yeah, Africa still has a long way to go. I agree it is the least likely to slow down this century, but you have to think about starting points.
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

#40
TreeHandThing

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Everyone thinks that India will be a major power...but with global warming, won't India just be an abandoned wasteland? 2050: Cold war-style standoff between China and U.S. 2100: Russia




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