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2016 US Presidential Election


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#21
LowLevelFunctionary

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You may as well add Marco Rubio, Condoleeza Rice, Bobby Jindal, and Paul Ryan for the Republicans, and throw in Joe Biden for Democrats and Bloomberg as an Independent but with potential to run as a Democrat (I say democrat because I doubt he'd have the credibility to win any Republican nomination at this point).

Edited by LowLevelFunctionary, 15 November 2012 - 03:01 PM.


#22
LowLevelFunctionary

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I think we can safely add Rand Paul as a contender for the GOP after this week!

#23
CamGoldenGun

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if Chris Christie is running and he gets to run his show and not trying to cater to the extremists, the Republicans will win. He's earned enough among North East voters that it will be enough to get at least 51%



#24
Cody930

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Eh...I'd be wary and look at Christie a bit further. I think people aren't looking into his governorship in NJ a little deeper. Not doubting his run completely but it's best to delve into what he might be standing for against the opposition.  He certainly is off-base from the crazy GOP of the House and would certainly change the electoral map if he snagged the White House. Not afraid to go against them. He also accepts climate change for what it is and is a supporter of clean energy. Plenty of tax credits went to solar and also to wind farms. He doesn't freak about other religions either; specifically the Islamaphobia, he appointed a Muslim judge to the Superior Court. That sparked stupidity from papers and critics by saying he had Islamist ties... *facepalm* His leadership with Sandy has been great as well. 

 

Now all that said, he isn't a supporter of the states EPA despite being a clean energy supporter and pulled NJ out of RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative). He vetoed a minimum wage bill AND a same-sex marriage bill which nationally are pretty high issues now. He thinks marriage should be put to a public referendum. NJ also has a huge property tax problem and he hasn't been able to control it effectively. 

 

The really ugly part is his attack on education...man he came into office ramming the unions, public teachers, and education aid. His budget called for $1 billion in cuts to aid which was actually overruled because it went under the states educational obligation to cover over a million children. That said he's added more aid to schools now but his attitude toward teachers is still rather treacherous. 

 

He also subscribes to the Reagan/Bush tax cut mantra as well. He tried pushing for a 10% cut in income tax (again..property taxes were something residents wanted to have been dealt with) which didn't get anywhere with both chambers democratically controlled. This was before Sandy so now this idea is pretty much garbage with money needed to rebuild the shore. 

 

Unless he 180s like Romney on a lot of issues, I wouldn't see much of these positions changing (albeit only a few tweaks) if he steps up to the plate for 2016. Edit: I should eat my own words for saying Rand Paul probably wouldn't run. :p


Edited by Cody930, 15 March 2013 - 01:42 AM.

"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#25
CamGoldenGun

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Honestly, if he sticks to his guns and doesn't 180 I see a lot of people voting for him just on that alone. Obama was looking like he would change a lot in the US, but instead of a quick increase in temperature, it's just been lukewarm. Lobbying is killing the government.



#26
Squillimy

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personally i think a majority of the US is beginning to be anti - republican. many of the states that are well known for being red states voted blue for the 2012 elections. Republicans may even desperately try to elect a racially minority candidate as they now see the power of the minority vote, and to be honest, they completely failed at targeting said community in both 2008 and 2012. Mitt Romney had a VERY negative view by the majority of the lower class, minorities, immigrants, and even much of the middle class; regardless of what the internet or news stations may make it seem like. Personally i think if Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden ran then he'd have a very good chance.

 

I very strongly disagree with the statement "democrats will lose if Hillary is selected as the nominee". The reality is quite the opposite. There are more women than men as a whole, and many of the women in America would vote for Hillary for the mere fact that she is one. Although I'm not saying this would completely pull the election, but she would probably have a VERY large chance of winning, especially considering we are facing a mainly democratic popular vote because of resentment of the republican party still left over from the Busch administration, and democrats and many new voters are beginning to see their views (the democrats) as more 'liberal' than republicans. Whether or not that is truely the case i won't go into right now, I'm just stating it how the majority sees it.

 

And the popular vote is at the point where they want to try something new and not statis-quo. We want to see a black, hispanic, or woman president now. We don't want a pure lineage of only old white men any more, and many people are beginning to believe that this is all that the republican party wants. So I'm actually leaning towards Hillary Clinton winning if she is chosen as a nominee. And if not then Joe Biden definately, mainly because he was Obama's vice president. I personally just don't think republican's are going to win the next election.

Please keep in mind that i'm not talking about political opinions or my bias towards one party or the other; the question was: who will win. And I'm basing my thoughts on the opinionated feelings that general public has and the majority vote.


What becomes of man when the things that man can create are greater than man itself?


#27
Jake Epping

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The main contenders of the Democratic primary will be Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Brian Schweitzer and Martin O'Malley. With the liberal wing failing to find an alternative to back, Clinton will win.

The main contenders of the Republican primary will be Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and some also-rans (Santorum, Jindal, Walker etc). The contest between the leading three will be long and divisive and will make many anxious about a hung convention with the third place finisher acting as kingmaker. I wager that Rubio will win. Clinton will do very well with white blue collar voters and will win overall.


Edited by Jake Epping, 21 March 2013 - 01:05 AM.


#28
CamGoldenGun

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I don't think Hilary will run. She'll be 69, second oldest next to Regan and she doesn't have Regan's star power.



#29
Jake Epping

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I don't think Hilary will run. She'll be 69, second oldest next to Regan and she doesn't have Regan's star power.

This is not a factor. No one said a word when Newt Gingrich or Herman Cain ran. 

Joe Biden's gonna run and he's older than Hillary.


Edited by Jake Epping, 17 March 2013 - 03:51 PM.


#30
CamGoldenGun

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No one expected Newt Gingrich or German Cain to win... except themselves, which is why it was a non-issue.

If Biden runs, democrats will lose (depending on who the Republicans pick, obviously). He's just an old smiling face behind Obama when Obama delivers the Presidential speeches.



#31
Cody930

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Been a while since the last post but figured I'd bump it due to recent news. Midterm elections are nearly upon us and once that's past 2016 will be all the hubbub. For those who may not know - Chris Christie, whose widely seen as the Republican candidate, took a major hit with two scandals that broke in the last few weeks; one involves intentional lane closures on the George Washington Bridge (claims he he had no knowledge of it) and the other being mishandling of Hurricane Sandy aid. Recent polling here showed that a majority said he should resign if it's found he did know about the GWB situation though he still holds a high approval rating as of now. Subpoenas are flying left and right over it (one of his staffers resigned after receiving one).  Christie had a lead over Hilary Clinton two months ago but now that's flipped since this story broke (trails her by 21 points). Even then a lot can change but he'll still carry baggage if he walks away from the bridge scandal without being caught in a lie let alone fumbling on the Sandy aid. An already fractured GOP is gonna have a hard time with it. Thoughts?


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#32
Yuli Ban

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God, Hilary will own this, I guarantee you.

And all of the American right will be up in arms. "First led by a communist n- erm, black person, now led by a communist woman?! Whatever happened to the United States of Jesus?!?!?!2!?"  


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#33
StanleyAlexander

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Hillary will run, and win, and nothing will change because POTUS is a figurehead.


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#34
Italian Ufo

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Ouch is getting closer and closer. now that I think is 2014. I predict that a democrat will for 2 terms and then we will have many Republicans from late 20s to late 40s.

American elections may also lose international interests. I also predict that soon or later it won't be a 2 party system.



#35
Futurist

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Hillary will run, and win, and nothing will change because POTUS is a figurehead.

^

 

This, in large part.



#36
Cody930

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Ouch is getting closer and closer. now that I think is 2014. I predict that a democrat will for 2 terms and then we will have many Republicans from late 20s to late 40s.

American elections may also lose international interests. I also predict that soon or later it won't be a 2 party system.

 

Maybe if the GOP had some radical transformation, holding the presidency for that long doesn't seem likely. Been a while since we've had a situation like that (for either side anyway). EDIT: That said it's been discussed we could be on the verge of a party shift which involves the death of conservatism as it is so who knows what will really pan out for the GOP. 


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#37
tw88

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Ouch is getting closer and closer. now that I think is 2014. I predict that a democrat will for 2 terms and then we will have many Republicans from late 20s to late 40s.

American elections may also lose international interests. I also predict that soon or later it won't be a 2 party system.

 

America rarely elects a party into the white house for more than two terms, its only happened twice in recent history with FDR and Reagan+Bush Cr. FDR and Reagan both were extremely popular presidents that enabled their party to maintain the white house for more than two terms.  Since it's generally assumed that the incumbent president will gain a second term, and that the incumbent party will be ousted after two terms in the white house, the opposing party generally gets their most electable candidates to run after a president completes two terms in office. Additionally the opposing parties base is generally more riled up and show up in greater numbers after a president completes two terms. Americans are liking Obama right now about as much as they liked George Bush at the end of his term, so a third term of democrats in the white house is probably unlikely.  A 3rd party may be possible, but 3rd parties in america are generally subsets of one of the two main parties.  America elections probably won't loose interest anytime soon, even with China and India gaining economically and militarily, the US will still be one of the largest economies and military powers in the world, and will still be the leader of the free world for the foreseeable future. 



#38
Cody930

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Ouch is getting closer and closer. now that I think is 2014. I predict that a democrat will for 2 terms and then we will have many Republicans from late 20s to late 40s.

American elections may also lose international interests. I also predict that soon or later it won't be a 2 party system.

 

America rarely elects a party into the white house for more than two terms, its only happened twice in recent history with FDR and Reagan+Bush Cr. FDR and Reagan both were extremely popular presidents that enabled their party to maintain the white house for more than two terms.  Since it's generally assumed that the incumbent president will gain a second term, and that the incumbent party will be ousted after two terms in the white house, the opposing party generally gets their most electable candidates to run after a president completes two terms in office. Additionally the opposing parties base is generally more riled up and show up in greater numbers after a president completes two terms. Americans are liking Obama right now about as much as they liked George Bush at the end of his term, so a third term of democrats in the white house is probably unlikely.  A 3rd party may be possible, but 3rd parties in america are generally subsets of one of the two main parties.  America elections probably won't loose interest anytime soon, even with China and India gaining economically and militarily, the US will still be one of the largest economies and military powers in the world, and will still be the leader of the free world for the foreseeable future. 

 

We've had period though that went longer than FDR and Reagan. Republicans essentially dominated the scene between the Grant and McKinley administrations; that's a decent 32 year period. You could even extend that all the way until FDR with the exception of Cleveland and Wilson, and Wilson won thanks to essentially a split ticket although the variety of Republicans in the presidency was a bit different in the 20s. 


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#39
MarcZ

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Unless there is a dark horse like Obama (no pun intended) in 2016 I think Hillary will be next POTUS. Christie is toast thanks to Bridgeghazi. 



#40
tw88

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Unless there is a dark horse like Obama (no pun intended) in 2016 I think Hillary will be next POTUS. Christie is toast thanks to Bridgeghazi.

I think the main problem with Hillary is that she is to many republicans what Sarah Palin is to democrats. She may just be the battle cry republicans need to get a good voter turn out.




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