Сontinuing the conversation with myself:
My forecast for upcoming (31 march) elections in Ukraine:
I round (31 March) - Zelensky and Poroshenko. The main thing: Yulia Tymoshenko will be filtered out (no matter with fair vote count or insignificant rigging to add 2-3% votes to Poroshenko).
Results of the first round:
Zelensky - 30,24% (got in the second round)
Poroshenko - 15,95% (got in the second round)
Tymoshenko - 13,40% (filtered out)
Well, it was easy... the second part is a bit more counterintuitive:
II round (April) - Poroshenko (as the only person with "administrative resourse") will win and become the new/old president of Ukraine. Zelensky will calmly swallow this, and Ukrainian voters will have to swallow the "fair" victory of candidate with 10-15% aproval rating.
Of course, if these elections were fair, Poroshenko would have been doomed. But this is Ukraine... The main unknown thing: are Western "friends of Ukraine" ready to support Poroshenko no matter what, or they're more interested in "peaceful and democratic transition of power" between puppets.
In first case, Poroshenko and his election commissions can draw any results. I think the "humble" 50-55% will be enough.
In second case, "friends of Ukraine" will let Poroshenko know that they will not swallow the obvious rigging, but then we're facing another question: will Poroshenko do it no matter what? I think yes, he will.