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Ukraine Watch Thread

Ukraine politics news

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#181
PhoenixRu

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Сontinuing the conversation with myself:

 

My forecast for upcoming (31 march) elections in Ukraine:

 

I round (31 March) - Zelensky and Poroshenko. The main thing: Yulia Tymoshenko will be filtered out (no matter with fair vote count or insignificant rigging to add 2-3% votes to Poroshenko).

 

Results of the first round:

 

Zelensky - 30,24% (got in the second round)

Poroshenko - 15,95% (got in the second round)

Tymoshenko - 13,40% (filtered out)

 

Well, it was easy... the second part is a bit more counterintuitive:

 

II round (April) - Poroshenko (as the only person with "administrative resourse") will win and become the new/old president of Ukraine. Zelensky will calmly swallow this, and Ukrainian voters will have to swallow the "fair" victory of candidate with 10-15% aproval rating.

 

Of course, if these elections were fair, Poroshenko would have been doomed. But this is Ukraine... The main unknown thing: are Western "friends of Ukraine" ready to support Poroshenko no matter what, or they're more interested in "peaceful and democratic transition of power" between puppets.

 

In first case, Poroshenko and his election commissions can draw any results. I think the "humble" 50-55% will be enough.

 

In second case, "friends of Ukraine" will let Poroshenko know that they will not swallow the obvious rigging, but then we're facing another question: will Poroshenko do it no matter what? I think yes, he will.



#182
PhoenixRu

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1645449_original.jpg

 

Maybe I was wrong... according to the last opinion poll, Zelensky (61%) is FAR ahead of Poroshenko (24%). This is too much, even for Ukraine. With such a gap, any vote rigging becomes very difficult if not impossible. At least because local participants are already more afraid of the future winner's revenge than of their current lame duck boss.

 

I'm not a fan of Zelensky. This guy is nothing but former comedian who is, probably, himself shocked and terrified by his future presidency. Being elected, he will most likely become the big disappointment. But such is the nature of protest vote.



#183
PhoenixRu

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Good thing, even though with five-years delay:

 

Russia banning oil, petroleum product, coal exports to Ukraine – Medvedev

 

"A few days ago the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers took the latest unfriendly step with respect to our country and expanded the list of Russian goods which cannot be imported to Ukrainian territory. In these conditions we are forced to protect our interests and take response measures," Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting of the Russian cabinet.
 
Medvedev said he had signed a resolution "banning the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products to Ukraine."


#184
PhoenixRu

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Goodbye, Poroshenko, your time is over!

 

1552868854_0:0:3072:1728_600x0_80_0_0_8f

 

As of 12:00, Vladimir Zelensky gaining 71.8% of the votes in the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine. Petro Poroshenko gaining 28.2%. NIMG also provides data for the country's macro-regions.

So, in the Central Ukraine, Zelensky - 72.9%, Poroshenko - 27.1%, in the South - 73.4% and 26.6%, in the West - 55.6% and 44.4%, in the East - 88.8% and 11.2% respectively.

 

Well done! He really managed to "unite the nation". Against himself...

 

UPDATE:

 

 

Ukraine’s incumbent President Pyotr Poroshenko, who, according to the exit polls, is far behind his rival, candidate from the Servant of the People party, showman Vladimir Zelensky, has recognized the results of the voting but said he is not going to quit politics.

 
"Next month I will vacate the presidential office. This is the choice of Ukrainians. I accept this decision. But I want to stress that I am not quitting politics," he said, adding that these were fair and transparent elections held in conformity with European standards.


#185
Sciencerocks

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Ukraine election: Comedian Zelensky 'wins presidency by landslide'

Source: BBC



Ukrainian comedian Volodymyr Zelensky has won a run-off election to become the country's next president by a landslide, exit polls suggest.

The polls give him more than 70% support. He dominated the first round of voting three weeks ago when 39 candidates were on the ticket.

Mr Zelensky challenged incumbent president Petro Poroshenko.

Mr Poroshenko has admitted defeat but told supporters gathered in Kiev that he will not leave politics.

 


Read more: https://www.bbc.co.u...europe-48007487



#186
PhoenixRu

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Ukraine election: Comedian Zelensky 'wins presidency by landslide'

 

I will not write a long post (since nobody cares anyway) but briefly: this was a pure protest vote. In normal situation, this guy Zelensky would gain 2-3%, no more... but situation is far from normal. The society is already feel sick from this heavy suffocating pathos of "nation, language, faith", from this rural archaic nationalism with its vyshyvankas and such, from fierce militarist rhetorics a-la "endless war against Russian-terroristic troops" and so on and so forth...

 

Did they understand the fatal historic mistake they made in 2014? Not at all, the course remains the same, just in slightly milder form (as it seem today). They just want a little break.

 

PS ...but to see the faces and observe the agony of porokhobots these days - is priceless.



#187
SkittleBlu

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The big challenge for the new Ukrainian president will be reconciling the differences over a fragmented country composed of many viewpoints and nationalities. Some Ukrainians want to join the EU and pivot towards the West, others want to maintain good relations with Russia. Many countries, not just Russia, want to project their influence in Ukraine. Poland, Hungary and Romania all have historically occupied parts of Ukraine and have interests there.



#188
PhoenixRu

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MOSCOW, April 24. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree, which makes it possible for residents of certain regions of southeastern Ukraine to obtain Russian citizenship under a simplified procedure. The document has been published on the Kremlin’s website.
 
"Individuals permanently residing in certain areas of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk regions have the right to apply for Russian citizenship under a simplified procedure," the decree reads. According to the document, the decision has been made "in order to protect human rights and freedoms" based on generally accepted international laws.

 



#189
PhoenixRu

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Extra madness...

 

Ukraine passes language law championed by outgoing president

 

Ukraine’s parliament approved a law on Thursday that grants special status to the Ukrainian language and makes it mandatory for public sector workers, despite opposition from the country’s large Russian-speaking minority who feel it is discriminatory.

 

The move, which obliges all citizens to know the Ukrainian language and makes it a mandatory requirement for civil servants, soldiers, doctors, and teachers, was championed by outgoing President Petro Poroshenko who needs to sign it into law before it takes effect, something he is expected to do.

 

Such was the Poroshenko's farewell gift for "Russian-speaking patriots of Ukraine". Those of them who will continue to speak Russian in official places, will face the "language inspectors" and will have to pay fine... how touching.



#190
PhoenixRu

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it seems this thread becomes my personal blog... Anyway, in addition to previous posts:

 

In recent interview Putin said that this decision (free Russian citizenship for people of Donbass) was planned long ago. Moreover, there are plans (still being discussed) to expand this program to the rest of Ukraine.

 

This will become true geopolitical bomb and will lead (In the middle and long-term) to further depopulation of Ukraine. For Ukrainians, Russian citizenship was/is desirable and attractive thing and I can easily imagine another 2-3 million people leaving this crazed and doomed land. Eventually, the wet dream of Ukrainian nazis will become reality:

 

"Get out to your Russia, Ivan!"

"Yeah, with pleasure! My papers are ready... "

 

1003540458_0:115:3077:1846_600x0_80_0_0_



#191
Alislaws

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It seems like, in some ways this would be the best solution, everyone who wants to live in russia moves to russia, everyone who wants to stay in Ukraine can stay in ukraine.

 

Ideally we should let all the Ukrainians who want to live in the EU move there and then everyone is where they want to be!

 

Sadly it will not be this simple I expect. 



#192
SkittleBlu

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Russia offers passports to Ukrainians. The new Ukrainian president slams this offer and instead offers Russians citizenship who he says “suffer” under Kremlin rule.
 
Ukraine wants to maintain its sovereignty. It is, however, being pulled into different directions by many outside countries. The challenge the new Ukrainian president faces is how to keep the country’s balance and reconcile its many interests.
 
Forget about how the Ukrainian president’s response to passports may have upset Russia. A large chunk of Ukrainians, especially in the east, want to maintain close relations with Russia. But a large chunk of Ukrainians also want to improve relations with the West.
 
Ukraine is caught in a delicate balancing act. It can’t continue this indefinitely. And it’s not the only country in the region that must do this. Belarus is in a similar position. It’s something that’s common to all countries that are located on a geopolitical fault line, especially one as big as this.


#193
caltrek

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Caught in Ukraine's violence, war and identity crisis

 

https://www.aljazeer...6182507197.html

 

Introduction:

 

(Al Jazeera) Mariupol, Ukraine - Diana Berg champions contemporary art, feminism and LGBT rights in the epicentre of Ukraine's main crises - a separatist war, spiralling political violence the weakened central government can hardly control, and an uneasy amalgamation of national ideology.

 

In the spring of 2014, the apolitical graphic designer, who grew in a Russian-speaking family in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, decided to counter the rise of a violent, Moscow-backed separatist movement around her.

 

She organised several anti-separatist protests that enraged the separatists.

 

At the last rally held in April 2014, thousands marched under Ukrainian flags, but a mobarmed with clubs, Cossack whips and Molotov cocktails ambushed them, killing a protester and wounding many others. 

 

After Berg and her girlfriend fled the nascent "People's Republic of Donetsk," the separatists sentenced them to death and posted Berg's personal information online, prompting hundreds of threats.

 

Although the linked article starts off by highlighting separatist violence, it also goes on to discuss the violence perpetrated by ultra-nationalists. It is thus closer in over all tone to SkittlBlu's post above.

 

230dce5127f14741aeea5cea275e2fbe_18.jpg

Diana Berg with posters satirising Ukranian poet Taras Shevchenko in the background

[Mansur Mirovalev/Al Jazeera]


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#194
caltrek

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Russia & Ukraine Will Swap Prisoners, but no Ceasefire

 

https://www.courthou...t-no-ceasefire/

 

Introduction:

 

PARIS (AP) — The presidents of Ukraine and Russia agreed Monday to revive the peace process on the bloody separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine and exchange all their prisoners, but failed to resolve crucial issues such as a timeline on local elections and control of the borders in the rebel-held region.

 

At the first meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders failed to find a compromise to bring an end to the 5-year-old war that has killed 14,000 people, emboldened the Kremlin and reshaped European geopolitics.

 

But they did agree to try again in four months to find solutions, said French President Emmanuel Macron, who mediated the talks along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and called them “fruitful,” in that it brought all four leaders together.

 

 

Conclusion:

The EU is expected to extend sanctions this week by another six months. Arriving for meetings in Brussels on Monday, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said: “At the moment I see no grounds to change anything in the European Union’s sanctions policy toward Russia in this matter. It would be good if we could get there at some point.”

 

Macron and Merkel said they agreed to intensify the monitoring by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is active only for 12 hours a day, and conduct it around the clock.

 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#195
PhoenixRu

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Russia & Ukraine Will Swap Prisoners

 

Rephrasing Britons, this is highly unlikely. Many of those prisoners held in Ukrainian prisons must have been already "successfully" driven to death, but Ukraine will never admit this officially and will do its best to delay the exchange or play the ugly show in style: "no-no-no, they themselves decided to stay with us..."







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