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The Future of Kazakhstan


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#1
Futurist

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What exactly do all of you think that the future of Kazakhstan is going to look like?



#2
four

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Probably much the same as what it is now: a relatively small country overshadowed by its neighbors.

China's economic influence in Central Asia is steadily rising; this trend will likely continue in the future.

Climate change shouldn't affect Kazakhstan too badly. Maybe some desertification in the west, but nothing major.

Kazakhstan has a sizeable Russian minority, mostly on its northern border. There are no signs of trouble here, but should Kazakhstan and Russia fall out in the future, it is possible that Russia will try to annex northern parts of Kazakhstan.
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#3
nomad

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On a long enough timeline, like 300 years? A desert from global warming and damage caused by climate refugees defoliating the land which will encourage desertification. Just like everything but Alaska, Canada, Russia, maybe Greenland, maybe parts of Antarctica, and maybe parts of China.


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#4
TheComrade

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Kazakhstan has a sizeable Russian minority, mostly on its northern border. There are no signs of trouble here, but should Kazakhstan and Russia fall out in the future, it is possible that Russia will try to annex northern parts of Kazakhstan.

 

President (only by name, in fact he is khan) Nazarbayev - a wise man. He understand that nationalism may become a very destructive force & that peaceful coexistence of different peoples is a key to stability and economic success. Back in 1990-s, after the collapse of USSR, kazakhstan was in much worse shape compared to Ukraine, but look at them now! However, khan Nazarbayev is an old man and who knows what will happen after his death? He have no clear successor: the person popular enough to come to power through elections (since such a person would become a threat to his power right now). So:

 

1) If there will be a long political crisis after his death

2) If by that time Kazakhstan will be seriously struck by economic troubles and Kazakh nationalists will be searching for scapegoats

3) If by that time Ukrainian krisis will be already resolved (one way or another)

 

...then Russia may intervene. I still think this is unlikely, but (again) who knows? If in 2013 someone told me about Crimea, i'd just laughed...


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#5
Frizz

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#6
TopScienceFacts

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Chinese increasingly strong economy, will eventually start to have a knock on effect for Kazakhstan aswell as the surrounding countries.

 

Kazakhstan also has a vast supply of minerals and oil which might make it an interesting theater in the next decades! 


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#7
Guyverman1990

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All those Turkic countries of central Asia(Kazakhstan included) should consider forming a union akin to the East African Federation. With Russia always leering towards them, it would b a smart move.

#8
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Kazakhstan has a sizeable Russian minority, mostly on its northern border. There are no signs of trouble here, but should Kazakhstan and Russia fall out in the future, it is possible that Russia will try to annex northern parts of Kazakhstan.

 

President (only by name, in fact he is khan) Nazarbayev - a wise man. He understand that nationalism may be become a very destructive force & that peaceful coexistence of different peoples is a key to stability and economic success. Back in 1990-s, after the collapse of USSR, kazakhstan was in much worse shape compared to Ukraine, but look at them now! However, khan Nazarbayev is an old man and who knows what will happen after his death? He have no clear successor: the person popular enough to come to power through elections (since such a person would become a threat to his power right now). So:

 

1) If there will be a long political crisis after his death

2) If by that time Kazakhstan will be seriously struck by economic troubles and Kazakh nationalists will be searching for scapegoats

3) If by that time Ukrainian krisis will be already resolved (one way or another)

 

...then Russia may intervene. I still think this is unlikely, but (again) who knows? If in 2013 someone told me about Crimea, i'd just laughed...

Agreed--if there will still be some Russian-majority areas in Kazakhstan at that point in time. After all, isn't the percentage of ethnic Kazakhs in the northern parts of Kazakhstan gradually increasing?

 

Also, though, if Kazakhstan will experience a severe deterioration of its relations with Russia (such as if Kazakhstan will decide to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union), then I can likewise see Russia annexing some or all of the Russian-majority areas of Kazakhstan.

 

In addition to this, though, I think that Nazarbayev is (thankfully) smart enough to make the Kazakhstani political transition after his death as smooth as the Turkmenistani political transition after the death of Niyazov was back in 2006. :)



#9
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I know this is off topic but I just wanted to say how much I value our friendship, futurist. Love u*.

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#10
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Probably much the same as what it is now: a relatively small country overshadowed by its neighbors.

China's economic influence in Central Asia is steadily rising; this trend will likely continue in the future.

Climate change shouldn't affect Kazakhstan too badly. Maybe some desertification in the west, but nothing major.

Kazakhstan has a sizeable Russian minority, mostly on its northern border. There are no signs of trouble here, but should Kazakhstan and Russia fall out in the future, it is possible that Russia will try to annex northern parts of Kazakhstan.

I pretty much agree with everything that you wrote here, Four! :) Of course, what I am especially curious about is how exactly the international community and especially countries such as China will react to a Russian annexation of some Russian-majority Kazakhstani territories. After all, aren't both Kazakhstan and China members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?



#11
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Also, @PhoenixRu: You are aware that a Russian annexation of any Kazakh territory means that the Eurasian Economic Union will become permanently dead, correct?



#12
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All those Turkic countries of central Asia(Kazakhstan included) should consider forming a union akin to the East African Federation. With Russia always leering towards them, it would b a smart move.

Would both Turkey and Azerbaijan also be members of such a union, though?



#13
TheComrade

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Amazing example of oriental servilism: Kazakh politicians want to rename capital after president

 

 

The suggestion to rename Astana was buried in a declaration unanimously passed by both chambers of parliament on Wednesday.

 

...pure madness if you ask me. This is like renaming Moscow into Putingrad, or New York into Obama City.

 

So far, Nazarbayev refusing, but very soon we'll know is he really refusing or just playing the role of "behewolent and wise, but modest khan" who will allow to "persuade" himself. I still hope for the first option. Nazarbayev is indeed a wise ruler, he should understand that this renaming will not bring him new greatness, but will rather make his country a laughing stock. 



#14
caltrek

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Amazing example of oriental servilism: Kazakh politicians want to rename capital after president

 

 

The suggestion to rename Astana was buried in a declaration unanimously passed by both chambers of parliament on Wednesday.

 

...pure madness if you ask me. This is like renaming Moscow into Putingrad, or New York into Obama City.

 

So far, Nazarbayev refusing, but very soon we'll know is he really refusing or just playing the role of "behewolent and wise, but modest khan" who will allow to "persuade" himself. I still hope for the first option. Nazarbayev is indeed a wise ruler, he should understand that this renaming will not bring him new greatness, but will rather make his country a laughing stock. 

 

 

As a bit of an aside, when Obama was first elected, a California community changed the name of one of its streets from "Broadway" to "Obama Way".  


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#15
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Amazing example of oriental servilism: Kazakh politicians want to rename capital after president

 

 

The suggestion to rename Astana was buried in a declaration unanimously passed by both chambers of parliament on Wednesday.

 

...pure madness if you ask me. This is like renaming Moscow into Putingrad, or New York into Obama City.

 

So far, Nazarbayev refusing, but very soon we'll know is he really refusing or just playing the role of "behewolent and wise, but modest khan" who will allow to "persuade" himself. I still hope for the first option. Nazarbayev is indeed a wise ruler, he should understand that this renaming will not bring him new greatness, but will rather make his country a laughing stock. 

Frankly, I think that this is just a stunt by Nazarbayev to make himself look good and magnanimous by refusing to do this. Plus, in any case, this can be done after his death.



#16
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Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev, a key Russian ally, resigns after almost 30 years in power

 

5c90ec03fc7e931c2a8b463c.JPG

 

Key Russian ally Nursultan Nazarbayev, the long-time president of Kazakhstan, has handed in his resignation after almost 30 years in power.

 
"I have made the decision to end my tenure as president," 78-year-old Nazarbayev said in his address.





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