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Fix your predictions' timing


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15 replies to this topic

#1
Simulated_Reality

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Deep learning is underway. Already, computers can beat champions at go, an incredibly high level game. Neural networks are being evolved that can do high level things that humans can without the massive neurological architecture. Clearly, the method being used is already better than traditional evolution. We have biological presets at our disposal, are reverse engineering the human brain to the point where we can simulate it well on a supercomputer (like we did in 2014). All we need is bigger neural nets and we'll develop neural networks that are constructed with a connection cost and hyperNEAT, will be more efficient than the human brain and will have a billion times the processing power of the human brain by 2045. The software won't need to be designed by humans; it will be evolving and self improving at exponentially faster rates than humans could design it. So, with all of this in mind, when will the singularity happen?

 

"2100+"

 

You're high. That's like saying computers were invented in 3,000 AD. And then there's the knock on effect of the singularity on other predictions. For example, when the singularity happens, in around 2045 (as predicted by an expert, Ray Kurzweil, who's always right about his predictions. Like in chess, you listen to an expert with a fantastic track record, not 500 million disagreeing novices and intermediates. What's right isn't a popularity contest.) and then you can expect a software and design explosion from the intelligent machines, making every other engineering-determined prediction arrive sooner.

 

Please fix your predictions' timing, future timeline. Throw away popular belief in favour of expert calculations.



#2
Jakob

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You don't stand much of a chance of getting nonsense posted to the timeline--which already assumes too-rapid progress IMHO--especially if you are this rude and arrogant about it.

 

Also--there's no such thing as an "expert" on futurism, and Ray Kurzweil isn't "always right".


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#3
Whereas

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Kurzweil tends to get his times wrong. His predictions are often close to the spot, but decades too early. So Kurzweil saying it'll be in 2045 is a decent argument for it being later than that.

But of course, we may also never achieve a significant technological singularity - this depends on things we don't yet know. It could well turn out that even an AI that's smarter than us plain won't be able to figure out how to solve our most important problems (one of those being how to make an AI significantly smarter). Maybe it'll be like bringing a bigger shovel to move a mountain with.


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If you're wrong, how would you know it?


#4
Jakob

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.



#5
Pisiu369

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Singularity in 2100+ Don't make me laugh. Singularity in 2045 yes.



#6
wjfox

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The Singularity is wishful thinking. Climate change will wreak havoc in the coming decades. The way things are going, we'll be lucky to survive this century.
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#7
Recyvuym

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Singularitarians are so adorable.

 

And before anyone jumps down my throat, I mean the proper hardcore ones like this guy.


Edited by Recyvuym, 16 May 2016 - 12:16 PM.

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I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#8
TranscendingGod

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Singularitarians are so adorable.
 
And before anyone jumps down my throat, I mean the proper hardcore ones like this guy.


What is that even supposed to mean? Proper hardcore ones? I think you meant to say that people who believe in the infallibility of a prediction are "so adorable". Believing in a possible Singularity is far from an unreasonable belief. Believing in the inevitability of anything is, on the otherhand, unreasonable. Of course you can refer to my post about the nature of the future for further rhetoric.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#9
Recyvuym

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Exactly man, I mean stuff like this specifically:

 

You're high. That's like saying computers were invented in 3,000 AD. And then there's the knock on effect of the singularity on other predictions. For example, when the singularity happens, in around 2045 (as predicted by an expert, Ray Kurzweil, who's always right about his predictions. Like in chess, you listen to an expert with a fantastic track record, not 500 million disagreeing novices and intermediates. What's right isn't a popularity contest.) and then you can expect a software and design explosion from the intelligent machines, making every other engineering-determined prediction arrive sooner.

 

Please fix your predictions' timing, future timeline. Throw away popular belief in favour of expert calculations.

 

Ray Kurzweil is the Prophet, he never makes mistakes, we will transcend these mortal coils by mid-century because Ray Kurzweil is a genius, anyone who doesn't agree is a moron, fix your prediction because it's wrong. This is pure Singularitarian fanaticism in action. I get the feeling you didn't believe me before when I said these guys existed.


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I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#10
TranscendingGod

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Exactly man, I mean stuff like this specifically:

 

You're high. That's like saying computers were invented in 3,000 AD. And then there's the knock on effect of the singularity on other predictions. For example, when the singularity happens, in around 2045 (as predicted by an expert, Ray Kurzweil, who's always right about his predictions. Like in chess, you listen to an expert with a fantastic track record, not 500 million disagreeing novices and intermediates. What's right isn't a popularity contest.) and then you can expect a software and design explosion from the intelligent machines, making every other engineering-determined prediction arrive sooner.

 

Please fix your predictions' timing, future timeline. Throw away popular belief in favour of expert calculations.

 

Ray Kurzweil is the Prophet, he's never wrong, we will transcend these mortal coils by mid-century because Ray Kurzweil is a genius. This is pure Singularitarian fanaticism in action. I get the feeling you didn't believe me before when I said these guys existed.

I get the feeling you are still misrepresenting Singularitarians. If you would read Kurzweil's books then you would understand that this rhetoric (it really cannot even be called rhetoric) which you talk about i.e. infallible predictions and holding Kurzweil as some prophetic genius whose only merit is his wit is far from the rhetoric expressed by a majority of Singularitarians. Kurzweil himself only describes what happens if current trends follow their due course. This fanaticism that you speak of is simply the delusion presented before you by kids on the internet who don't know half of what they speak of. They take tidbits they read from articles they only half comprehend and twist it to fit their own fanciful worlds. Something which i fear dreadfully affects even those who would think them "reasonable".

 

To be honest this forum's rationality or intelligence level is not much higher than the youtube comment sections. You can hardly take the spiel of nonsense uttered by the children on this forum as representative of a legitimate ramification of technology's encore. 

 

Yuli Ban, a fellow Singularitarian,  is hardly such a fellow as what you describe above. Ben Goertzel, Hugo de Garis, and myriads others have realized that such a thing as a Singularity is possible and quite likely.

 

In essence your blatant generalization of a whole group of people is the root cause of your misunderstanding. Labels often lead people to judge without first comprehending.  

 

Edit: I don't mean to be snide. When i speak of this forum's lack of rationality I include many(including myself although not to the extent of some here) but it is not meant to be all encompassing.

 

As an example TheDoomToom private messaged me the other day about something he believed i was wrong about. I tried to respectfully correct him and then he said with the utmost audacity "No. I am correct.". After I demonstrated his lack of understanding he retracted his contemptuous belief in his own understanding  and called him an arrogant child. After which he proceeded to use a racial slur by calling me a "beaner". Such a thing is hardly demonstrative of anyone who should be given any credence.


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#11
Recyvuym

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Okay. Thank you Sensei.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#12
TranscendingGod

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Okay. Thank you Sensei.

Keko desu kohai-kun.


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#13
Recyvuym

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Okay. Thank you Sifu.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#14
TranscendingGod

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Okay. Thank you Sifu.

Wait why are we switching to Chinese? I don't know any Chinese.


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#15
Erowind

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I would not be here if this forums discussions were comparable to the Youtube comments section. Sure we have a fair share of kids (including myself 18 is still adolescence) and a few trolls like Smeargle. But, we also have people like Recyvuym, Yuli, Wjfox, Ghostreaper and so on. Not to mention the discussion here can be pretty in depth and interesting at times. I mean we're no philosophyforums.com but FT is where civil casual conversation shines.



#16
Mike the average

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I was actually agreeing with the op until i got to Kurzweil is always right, Im a fan of Kurzweil but that was hilarious.

I hope Sim reality doesn't get banned or anything, just for the laughs.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein




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