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How are the predictions made on Future Timeline?


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#1
Simulated_Reality

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When you disagree with official sources, such as research papers and experts, when you are no more qualified to deduce the nuances of the situation than they are, and they are qualified to know what they're talking about, that's when almost any rational person can know you're being a bit dim. Yes, I'm talking to you, people who fit this category. How else would you spin it? If someone knew what the official sources  say and said Python wasn't object oriented, the rotational period of Earth is 25 hours or computers were not twice as powerful in 2000 as they were in 1995, what would you think of them? Would you think they're being rational? So, when someone disagrees with the fact the singularity will happen, when one of the most qualified people in the world to say whether or not it will confirms that it will, aren't they being a tad irrational? Do we want to let this irrationality poison this resource? How are the predictions made on this website? Could some of them be improved? Are any of them just opinion or are they backed up by facts? How do you know the singularity has a reasonable chance of not happening, when people far smarter and more qualified than you fail to reach this conclusion? Which or more likely; they're wrong or you're wrong?



#2
Jakob

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Nobody knows what will happen in the future. "Reliable" sources are guessing just as much as you and I and Will are. That's kinda the point--you can't "know" what's going to happen even in 2020 let alone 2100.


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#3
As We Rise

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Someone went to the future to gather information, then came back to tell Will.


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#4
Simulated_Reality

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Why is this? How do you know that? If they were just guessing about all their predictions, where did they mention that? Do you really think you know better than the experts at trend analysis?

 

We can extrapolate trends to understand our future capacities and therefore our future actions. Like the emergent properties of gas, future trends are predictable on large scales.



#5
Outlook

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You are getting a bit too emotional, so I'll play the part of your rational side:

 

"What will I get from posting this thread?

 

With this accusatory tone will wjfox listen to me? 

 

Can I instead present my ideas in a way that can be maturely discussed?

 

Will people think that I am emotionally distraught over the previous thread whilst creating this one?

 

Do I risk having a user mock me for getting too emotional over predictions?"


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Outlook's secret song of the ~week: https://youtu.be/DGe_Sluth3A


#6
wjfox

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When you disagree with official sources, such as research papers and experts, when you are no more qualified to deduce the nuances of the situation than they are, and they are qualified to know what they're talking about, that's when almost any rational person can know you're being a bit dim. Yes, I'm talking to you, people who fit this category. How else would you spin it? If someone knew what the official sources  say and said Python wasn't object oriented, the rotational period of Earth is 25 hours or computers were not twice as powerful in 2000 as they were in 1995, what would you think of them? Would you think they're being rational? So, when someone disagrees with the fact the singularity will happen, when one of the most qualified people in the world to say whether or not it will confirms that it will, aren't they being a tad irrational? Do we want to let this irrationality poison this resource? How are the predictions made on this website? Could some of them be improved? Are any of them just opinion or are they backed up by facts? How do you know the singularity has a reasonable chance of not happening, when people far smarter and more qualified than you fail to reach this conclusion? Which or more likely; they're wrong or you're wrong?

 

I'd be more inclined to respond if you didn't have such a condescending tone.


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#7
Recyvuym

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I love this guy. Right as we were talking about whether or not Singularitarian fanatics exist, one of them shows up.

 

Why are you saying we will reach this Singularity by 2045? According to Terrence McKenna, who is always righterer than Prophet Kurzweil, we're actually going to hit the Singularity by the year 2012. This is corroborated by the I Ching AND the Mayans AND psilocybin mushrooms. This is the same guy who gave us the Stoned Ape theory, frankly I think it's negligent not to update the timeline right now. Singularity in 2012, don't listen to these 2045 idiots.


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I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#8
BasilBerylium

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The world 16 years ago (Predictions from early XX century)

future-predictions-from-the-past-3.jpg

 

article-2200930-14EFADA4000005DC-60_634x

 

17m1u834sjyttjpg.jpg

Spoiler


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This website has a magic that makes people draw back here like moths to light.


#9
BasilBerylium

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The world 16 years ago (Predictions from early XX century)

future-predictions-from-the-past-3.jpg

 

article-2200930-14EFADA4000005DC-60_634x

 

17m1u834sjyttjpg.jpg

Spoiler

 


Singularity for this century

tumblr_static_41idjf875gowog8scg0oocw80.


This website has a magic that makes people draw back here like moths to light.


#10
Recyvuym

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17m1u834sjyttjpg.jpg[spoiler]

 

 

This one was right on the money.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#11
BasilBerylium

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When you disagree with official sources, such as research papers and experts, when you are no more qualified to deduce the nuances of the situation than they are, and they are qualified to know what they're talking about, that's when almost any rational person can know you're being a bit dim. Yes, I'm talking to you, people who fit this category. How else would you spin it? If someone knew what the official sources  say and said Python wasn't object oriented, the rotational period of Earth is 25 hours or computers were not twice as powerful in 2000 as they were in 1995, what would you think of them? Would you think they're being rational? So, when someone disagrees with the fact the singularity will happen, when one of the most qualified people in the world to say whether or not it will confirms that it will, aren't they being a tad irrational? Do we want to let this irrationality poison this resource? How are the predictions made on this website? Could some of them be improved? Are any of them just opinion or are they backed up by facts? How do you know the singularity has a reasonable chance of not happening, when people far smarter and more qualified than you fail to reach this conclusion? Which or more likely; they're wrong or you're wrong?

As you dare to speak so to the Infinite Oracle Hero, Blessed Predictions Invoker and Legendary King of Time Wjfox


This website has a magic that makes people draw back here like moths to light.


#12
Jakob

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The world 16 years ago (Predictions from early XX century)

future-predictions-from-the-past-3.jpg

 

article-2200930-14EFADA4000005DC-60_634x

 

17m1u834sjyttjpg.jpg

Spoiler

Yeah, you hit the nail on the head! :)

 

If any of us on this forum--me, you, Will, Yuli, TG--or off it--Kurzweil, Kaku, Dimandis--all our predictions would probably look equally dumb to a person from 2100.



#13
ddmkm122

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The world 16 years ago (Predictions from early ?? century).

future-predictions-from-the-past-3.jpg

 

article-2200930-14EFADA4000005DC-60_634x

 

17m1u834sjyttjpg.jpg

Spoiler

What do you mean?  I don't get this at all?  Besides, this looks more like it looks like today than it did 16 years ago, I'd imagine!






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