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The Crash of 2016/7: Why the Next Great Depression has Already Begun

recession prediction great depression economy economic collapse debt hyperinflation deleveraging wealth inequality neoliberalism

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#41
Ready Steady Yeti

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Why not 2029?



#42
Yuli Ban

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Global Bonds Suffer Worst Monthly Meltdown as $1.7 Trillion Lost

The 30-year-old bull market in bonds looks to be ending with a bang.
The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index lost 4 percent in November, the deepest slump since the gauge’s inception in 1990. Treasuries extended declines Thursday along with European bonds on speculation that the European Central Bank will consider sending a signal that stimulus will eventually end. The reflation trade has been driving markets since Donald Trump’s election victory due to his promises of tax cuts and $1 trillion in infrastructure spending.
Calling an end to the three-decade bond bull market is no longer looking like a fool’s errand: the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again -- and do so more often than once a year, inflationary expectations are climbing and there are hints global central banks may buy less sovereign debt going forward. Investors pulled $10.7 billion from U.S. bond funds in the two weeks after Trump’s victory, the biggest exodus since 2013’s “taper tantrum,” while American stock indexes jumped to records.

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#43
Yuli Ban

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6 million Americans have stopped paying their car loans, and it's becoming a 'significant concern'

There is a lot of talk out there about the auto-loan market right now.
Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has said the auto-lending market should "scare the heck out of everybody," while the auto-lending practices of some used-car dealerships has been given the John Oliver treatment on TV.
It's a topic we've been paying attention to as well. In a presentation in September at the Barclays Financial Services Conference, Gordon Smith, the chief executive for consumer and community banking at JPMorgan, set out some eye-opening statistics on the market.
Now the New York Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at the market. In a blog published Wednesday on the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics site, researchers highlighted the deteriorating performance of subprime auto loans and set off the alarm.
"The worsening in the delinquency rate of subprime auto loans is pronounced, with a notable increase during the past few years," the report said.
To be clear, the overall delinquency rate for auto loans is pretty stable, and the majority are performing well.
There are, however, signs of stress in the subprime market segment, which has seen rapid growth.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#44
Yuli Ban

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John Dyer of Roanoke, VA gets it:

Hate to be a pessimist, but sometimes I feel like we're Wile E. Coyote when he chases the Road Runner off a cliff and he is standing there, reflecting before the fall occurs. Our entire system is predicated on ignoring debt and believing in perpetual growth on a finite planet.
The European banking system is about to collapse, we are about to have millions of Venezuelan refugees figuring out where to flee, oil companies are selling oil below extraction costs in order to pay back their loans. Turkey has had enough of holding back millions of climate refugees for Europe. California keeps building housing as its aquifers run dry. Las Vegas has no comprehension that when the water level drops below Hoover Dam's turbines, they are toast.
Sorry.

His comment was to this article, The New Jobs Numbers Signal the End of an Economic Era.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#45
caltrek

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You can't really blame the GOP, of course— nothing can easily fix an economic depression

 

Now that just goes against my  religious conviction.  Of course you can always blame the GOP. The reason for my lack of faith in the GOP?

 

  1. That party has consistently opposed what I consider proper regulation of the banking sector. If Deutsche Bank does fail and brings U.S. banks down with it, it will only be because the banks are so interdependent that a big one can't go down with pulling the others down with it.  Effective regulations would limit such exposure in that U.S. banks would not hold sufficient positions in Deutshe Bank for a failure in that bank to directly cause them to fail.
  2.  If their is a crisis that results in depression, it will be because that crisis is miss-managed.  The GOP now controls both the legislative and executive branch. 

If the problems caused by excessive interpenetration in the banking sector do not materialize, then any downturn in the global economy can be countered through various stimulative mechanisms including:

 

  1. An easing of the money supply by the Fed (admittedly not under GOP control).
  2. Stimulative spending by the federal government including:
    1. Increased expenditures on the military.
    2. Expenditures on public works programs.
    3. An expansion of social welfare and related transfer payments.

Spending is under GOP control.  How to finance:

 

  1. Borrowing.  Relatively speaking the U.S. is well positioned in terms of investor confidence.
  2. Taxation.  This would be the hard political pill for the GOP to swallow.  So hard that it might refrain from solving the problem out of an exaggerated philosophical inclination against such a solution.  Now I am not talking about just any taxation.  I am talking about taxation aimed at the economic elite of this country. A tax that would be highly progressive in nature. Relying upon such a source of taxes would give the government a revenue stream from which it could match revenues with expenditures and/or provide a revenue stream to borrow funds.

Once a round of stimulative spending is undertaken the government would also recoup revenues through payroll taxes.  State and local governments would also see their sales tax revenues increase. Multiplier effects would bring additional benefits in this regard.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#46
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http://www.usdebtclock.org/



#47
caltrek

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US-national-debt-GDP-graph.png

 

 

As the graph shows, the debt was actually at its lowest point in 50 years (when Reagan to office) compared to the US economy, but he grew the debt much faster than he grew the economy. That’s why the graph shoots up when he takes office. No one had done that since Word War II, and Reagan had promised to balance the budget. That’s weird…

 

Consider what it means when the graph says 100%. It means the national debt equals one year of Gross Domestic (National) Product (GDP). So if we used the full value of what the US produces for one year just to pay off that debt, that would just do it. And 50% means, the debt would be paid off in six months of using the full output.

 

That sounds outlandishly huge, but consider a family making $100,000 a year that buys a $250,000 house with 20% down and takes a $200,000 mortgage. No one considers this unusual or risky. But that family would be off the top of the graph at 200%. It would take all they made for two years to pay off their debt. And the US has a slight advantage over most families. It can print money. So there is zero chance of default.

 

And only about 1/3 of the debt is owed to foreigners. Another 40% is owed to Americans, for example pension plans own quite a bit of it. And the rest is owed by the US government’s “General Fund” to other Government Trust Funds, like the Social Security Trust Fund and the military’s pension fund.

 

Stop with the doom and gloom. … And no, the high debt is not harming our credit. If you have bad credit, people will only loan you money at a high interest rate. Everyone in the world is willing to loan Uncle Sam money at almost zero interest. He’s got absolutely the best credit rating in the world.

 

 

http://zfacts.com/p/318.html


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#48
caltrek

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248944-galleryV9-nnhb.jpg

 

http://ritholtz.com/...n-by-president/


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#49
Yuli Ban

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OOR7xLd.png
Current monetary policy is not in any way normal. If we still need pedal to the metal expansionary monetary policy eight years into a recovery, then something is really wrong.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#50
Recyvuym

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Exactly, it's a zombie economy. Not to mention having rates this low inflates new bubbles pretty much by definition. And the Fed is about to raise rates again, on the assumption things are getting better (hint: they're not). Prepare for a fresh wave of defaults.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#51
caltrek

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Current monetary policy is not in any way normal. If we still need pedal to the metal expansionary monetary policy eight years into a recovery, then something is really wrong.

 

 

I would actually tend to agree with this.  The ongoing failure and related rejection of the European Union is also a development that I do not feel comfortable about.  I would also feel more comfortable if the U.S. Gross national debt were something substantially less than equal to 100% of GDP.  This thread has prompted me to look at various economic indicators.  I must admit, I am starting to get a feeling close to what I was getting when I reviewed polling results for the U.S. presidential race.  It looked like Hillary was going to win but this nagging possibility that Trump still had a chance kept creeping into the picture. In the same way, it looks to me like the U.S. at least will weather the coming storms, yet there is this nagging doubt brought on by factors toward which Yuli is pointing. 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#52
Yuli Ban

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A Major Banking Collapse Looks Imminent

This surprises almost everyone…
You don’t own the money in your bank account.
Once you deposit money at the bank, it’s no longer your property. It’s the bank’s.
What you own is a promise from the bank to repay you. It’s an unsecured liability. Technically, you’re a creditor of the bank. And that means a bank bail-in would probably burn you.
A bail-in is when a bank recapitalizes itself by tapping its creditors. That includes all of its average Joe depositors. Italians are about to find this out the hard way.
 
The Italian banking system is a mile-high house of cards. It’s looking wobblier every day.

The Italian economy is made up of many small and medium-sized businesses. Those businesses take out loans from Italian banks. But the country’s economy is in a deep and protracted depression. So, many of those loans have either gone bad or will go bad.
This has created a crisis in the Italian banking system. It’s taken years to build up, but the situation is finally coming to a head.
The Italian banking system is insolvent. Shares of most Italian banks have plummeted more than 50% so far this year.
Together, Italian banks hold $400 billion-plus worth of loans that are 90 days past due and unlikely to be repaid in full.
That’s a staggering figure. These nonperforming loans (NPLs) account for more than 18% of all outstanding bank loans in Italy. They add up to over 20% of the Italian GDP.
Here is some sobering perspective: Only 5% of all outstanding loans in France are nonperforming. In the US, it’s 2%. In the UK, it’s a mere 1.5%.
Italy’s NPLs are an enormous problem.
Behind the scenes, European central bankers are preparing for a major crisis—all while promising the public that “everything is under control.”

 


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#53
kjaggard

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See I'm a little less in the camp of the rapid and speedy change. I've been through a few rides like this before and in retrospect we tend to say this caused that and think that the 70s-80s troubles were about a month from start to bottom, or that the dot com bubble was a real POP,  Or that the 2008 happened all within a season rather than the larger timeframe it took to catch five and the slow burn along the way around the world.

 

So my expectation is that Three decent sized italian banks will start to faulter, but seem to catch themselves. One will be making it's final arrangments like some terminal patient trying to not take the whole family with them. and a bit before it goes... The bigger of the three just crumbles in a complete pile. This will take a minimum of four months. During that time ripple effects echo in european markets mostly, and things are on edge.

 

Over the next month and a half two more banks go down. Oddly the third of the big ones manages to hold it together through much of this. Europe starts talking recession and reinforcing things to protect against further instability. a smoldering worry about things starts the process of undermining other banks through europe.

 

meanwhile we will have had the french election, and it will have cause market reactions like Brexit and the night reaction to the italian referendum. So by mid summer the italian Bank holdout drops the other shoe and goes under. The new elections have been held and the Italian leadership is talking about restoring italy for Italians again. And an increasingly struggling population is eating it up for several months before...

 

The German elections don't go well. It's not a clear overwhelming victory for anybody, but it's enough to empower the nationalistic anti-global groups and interfere with ... well pretty much everything, so that the government is reduced to useless bickering and ineffective noises. which of course pisses off the citizens who in their anger will increasingly favor policy and people who not be diplomatic and instead will make things happen.

 

by years end Italy will looking a bit like greece and talks will be going around of one or more withdraws from the EU and we will start to see what the Brexit will actually be, so of course it's in their intrest to make that seem like an unattractive idea for others. Britains facing a bad time a they start their own slide into recession.

 

After new years Some EU will choose not to go through with withdraw, others will do it anyway. Trade negotiations are getting harsh between EU and former members, and between those that left, trying to get the best deals for multiple economies in recession and trying to rebuild individual economies from nearly the ground up again.

 

some of these economies come to some trade deals that in effect provides competition for the EU as a trade block. that fight gets messier over the next year and a half.

 

The earliest I see a big enough shockwave to crumble the world economy into complete depression is 2019/2020. I feel like it's likely to be some combination of refugees, droughts causing world food shortages for a few years in a row, and a major diplomatic insult or clash leading to trade retaliations.

 

I tend to think it's likely to not happen before trump gets a second 4 years in the white house. Where he will likely have a stroke/heartattack or die leaving us with his Vice president to manage the country and during that second term things will be pushed so far there won't be much hope of coming back.

 

Full on depression will occur in the first few years of the 2020s, and by mid 2020s we will be looking at a world war between multiple groups, not just two. and it will take years for both to settle out into multi directional cold wars that last  well toward the 2040s and possibly much further.


Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#54
Yuli Ban

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Here's what will one day be in the dictionaries of the world as an example of the phrase "Too Little, Too Late"
 

Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Economics Professor at Harvard : It’s Time for a Reset

Everywhere, anti-globalization is on the rise. We need to promote responsible nationalism. We must stop a race to the bottom in areas like labor standards and environmental protections 

In statistical terms, 2016 was a year of continuity for the world economy, as performance was quite similar to that of recent years. The big changes were political, as a widespread anti-globalization movement signaled a breakdown in a consensus among most political leaders that had held since the end of the World War II. It used to be generally accepted that reducing trade barriers increases prosperity and promotes peace, benefiting investing and recipient countries and promoting international cooperation in solving problems around the world. Almost all of this was called into question in 2016.
Both major party presidential candidates in the United States professed to be staunchly opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, and Donald J. Trump called for ripping up existing trade treaties like Nafta. Across the Atlantic, British voters opted to leave the European Union, while the ruling Conservative Party challenged the rights of foreign workers and the head of the Labour Party embraced socialism and expressed skepticism of Britain’s NATO membership. A trade deal between the European Union and hardly threatening Canada was almost scuppered by a recalcitrant Belgian province concerned about the effects of globalization on local workers. Movements hostile to the longstanding vision of an ever more united Europe gained strength in every major country.
Resistance to globalization was not confined to the West, nor to the industrialized world. Leaders including Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China and Narendra Modi in India all appealed to national pride, core values and strength, each placing uncomfortable emphasis on some variant of ethnic purity. In all four cases, any interest in universal values of openness or human rights is very much secondary to the reassertion of national strength.
This renaissance of nationalism and resistance to globalization appears to be universal, and not the exclusive preserve of either the left or right. It seems to stem from a profound sense on the part of many groups that their lives are buffeted by forces beyond their control. As people’s distance increases in a geographic sense, in a cultural sense, and in the sense of a lack of shared identity, they lose confidence in their leaders’ abilities to protect them. Insecurity is begetting atavism.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#55
Recyvuym

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I'd find that argument very persuasive, kjaggard, except for one thing: we've already been in that state of teetering on the edge since at least 2015 at this point. Frankly, you could easily make the case the entire Eurozone has been in a slow-motion crisis since the GFC.

 

To be clear, I'm not expecting everything to collapse overnight either. I think the trigger point will be now, December 2016, but it will probably be possible to deny that it's happening through most of the slow grind to the bottom that will be 2017. Yes there'll be new emergency measures and rabbits pulled out of the hat which will reassure investors and the populace, in some places. In others, there'll be bank failures, bail-outs, bail-ins (I don't quite expect all of Europe's banks to simply collapse without intervention, but even if there is intervention, that's still disastrous for the common person) and recession. But we'll be able to handwave most of it as isolated incidents. Maybe. I dunno. Can't actually see the future. But I doubt it'll be as slow as you think.

 

Why? Because this isn't just a European banking crisis. That's merely one of the catalysts. It's also the Chinese slowdown, which is already happening. The resultant recessions in African and other developing nations, which are already kicking into high gear. The low and negative interest rates, which are about to have the carpet pulled from under them. The signs of multiple bubbles already beginning to rupture even without a raise in rates. The anti-globalist revolt that's now in full swing the world over. The fact we've been living on literally nothing but debt for almost ten years.

 

Frankly, the crash should already have happened by now. My thesis all along has been that the powers that be are covering up the damage with a slap job of glue and bandaids. That state of "Everything's fine now folks, go back to sleep"? That's now. It's been happening for quite some time already. Things are different from all the precedents you've lived through, because the global economy has become utterly fake. By my estimation, that's about to start becoming all too clear to everybody... and you can see it in all the headlines I've been posting and Yuli's been posting. Like people's guts are beginning to lurch as the roller coaster chugs to the end of the line and it dawns on them that the rail simply ends over a sheer cliff. The attitudes of all the passengers tend to be one of two things. Either it's denial, I don't see the problem. Or it's, cover my eyes, I don't want to look...


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#56
kjaggard

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Frankly, the crash should already have happened by now.

 Yes it should have, it should have happened in 2002, and had it's second shot at 2008.

 

The thing is the governments and economies have been fake for a lot longer than most anyone on this board was alive. Quite frankly we bullshitted our way out of the great depression, our money hasn't been real since the silver standards went away, and the banking system became little more than slot machines with the whole Glass-stegal fiasco.

 

but strangely enough you can achieve enough with the posative thinking that has held things together since Regan had begun to unravel it all. we changed the world with the internet and ushered walked up to the threshold of the next stage of human history.

 

we've been like whiley coyote running over a cliff edge, as long as we didn't look down we got pretty far, in fact we got far enough that it's possible that toss a few over to the other side so they can lower a rope for the rest of us to climb when we fall.

 

Because truth be told, all economic systems and government are made of things constructed predominantly in the human brain and then tried to realize them in the world. They kinda work for a while until the things they don't do quite well enough build up and cause a breakdown. Then we construct a new one that supposed doesn't have those problems but the problems it does have build up until the new model breaks. and so one through history. And now here we are, pushing the edge of becoming a species that can move off world and live in a solar system, and control things on a molecular levels, and test the edges of ever lengthening life span.

 

That too will break under some yet to be found holes, but it will be at least a hundred years before we have to worry about that just yet.

 

It the mean time we will have our fall, but it won't be all at once, and it won't be as quick as people imagine it will. In part because too many people don't believe things are falling apart so they aren't reacting in a way that protects themselves while contributing to the fall. It's our old friend the sunk cost fallacy. You have a thing which you knew was worth something a few years ago, and now when you would be willing to sell the best offer so far is 60% what you know it was a few years ago. You refuse to go less than 80%. You will pay a little bit, maybe 5% for years to keep up with it trying to get 80% or more. Logically you should know that four years from now at 5% loss even getting 80%would be the same as 60% now. But you keep holding on, to this belief that you will get what you think it is worth.

 

It will happen the world over, at uneven rates and so the first phase of the fall will be slow and subtle before the "Oh, fuck" really sets in. then like a parent giving CPR to their child, we will keep trying to keep it alive. going down kicking and screaming the whole way, which will actually slow things slightly but only in the sense of being terrible, rather than heart rendingly agonizing.


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Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#57
Recyvuym

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Hey, well put. But with each little crash since Regan, the system has become a little more fragile each time. Look how much further the US economy had to fall back in '08, compared to now. Before that point, you could be forgiven for thinking the trend of capitalist growth was just going to continue forever. Now, we're already in a subtle global depression. It's a razor's edge between business as usual, and total chaos.

We shall see. For me the most pressing question now is whether Monte dei Paschi collapses on the 9th, or gets bailed in. Either is a different kind of disaster but a bail in might kick the can down the road another month or two. I'll concede you've lived longer and seen more but on the other hand, I don't think you've seen a situation quite like the one we're in now before. Nobody has.

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#58
Mike the average

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Maybe you shouldve put up a poll for this topic as well?


'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein

#59
Recyvuym

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In this case, I'm actually surprised by the number of people who've come around. I expected more resistance to the bitter end. I consider it a testament to how much has gone wrong with the global economy this year. Hope I haven't misled people on a wild goose chase after the apocalypse or TranscendingGod will get to laugh at me forever and ever and ever.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#60
Zaphod

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I still think it's possible that there wont be a crash any time soon, just prolonged stagnation and a recession in 3-4 years. I'm not prepared to make any hard predictions at this point as everything is far too uncertain. A crash does seem the more likely option however. 







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: recession, prediction, great depression, economy, economic collapse, debt, hyperinflation, deleveraging, wealth inequality, neoliberalism

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