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What will be our Ferdinand Event?

WW3 world war

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#1
kjaggard

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I'm coining the term Ferdinand Event to denote events like the Archduke Ferdinands death which history will see as the trigger event that set off a world war, a following depression and a subsequent second world war, because it was laid into fertile soil.

 

I was talking with somebody recently about a book I'm writing about how events lately seem to be making that fertile soil, and how those events don't HAVE to result in a world war, it takes what I'd dubbed Ferdinand events to percipitate it out. As I have been thinking about the topic it occurs to me that human history is littered with aborted fertile soil events, we pretty much shed them like skin cells through history. It's only when we get a good mix in the right places, and trip them off with a Ferdinand event that we seem to see them as contributing factors.

 

So we've been posting a lot of fertile soil lately, we're all on edge because it feels like at any moment the right event could deliver the hammer blow that bring it all crashing down.

 

So what do people think will be the Ferdinand event, and when do you think it will happen?

 

I'll reserve my thoughts until I've heard some of what others think.


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#2
Yuli Ban

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Though I may not know what the exact event will be, I bet it will be related to artificial intelligence. Someone will use machine learning to expose the weakness of another nation, and, after making some wizard noises with your mouth, we're deep into the asshole of World War III. Or maybe the AI discovers that Paektu is about to blow, leading to North Korea invading South Korea out of desperation.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
Rusakov

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Trump winning. :(



#4
Sciencerocks

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Trump winning. :(

 

 

More specifically his deregulation's that will cause the same problems as Hover and George w Bush caused to create a new global depression.



#5
MarcZ

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Trump winning. :(

 

 

More specifically his deregulation's that will cause the same problems as Hover and George w Bush caused to create a new global depression.

 

 

Except Trump isn't particularly pro-deregulation. Ripping up NAFTA would add lots of new regulations. 



#6
Futurist

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I'm coining the term Ferdinand Event to denote events like the Archduke Ferdinands death which history will see as the trigger event that set off a world war, a following depression and a subsequent second world war, because it was laid into fertile soil.

 

I was talking with somebody recently about a book I'm writing about how events lately seem to be making that fertile soil, and how those events don't HAVE to result in a world war, it takes what I'd dubbed Ferdinand events to percipitate it out. As I have been thinking about the topic it occurs to me that human history is littered with aborted fertile soil events, we pretty much shed them like skin cells through history. It's only when we get a good mix in the right places, and trip them off with a Ferdinand event that we seem to see them as contributing factors.

 

So we've been posting a lot of fertile soil lately, we're all on edge because it feels like at any moment the right event could deliver the hammer blow that bring it all crashing down.

 

So what do people think will be the Ferdinand event, and when do you think it will happen?

 

I'll reserve my thoughts until I've heard some of what others think.

Frankly, I think that either 9/11 or Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation is currently the closest thing to a Ferdinand event that the 21st century has had thus far.



#7
Yuli Ban

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In all seriousness, I can't think of a bigger Ferdinand Event from the past 5 years than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That singlehandedly obliterated 13 years of stable relations between Russia and the West, far more so than the invasion of Georgia. In our modern nuclear-wired age, pulling a Sudetenland is a massive-ass no-no. Even the US wouldn't pull shit like that, and we're the ones who run the world. If we tried, we'd get smacked by everyone save Israel and maybe England.

 

Imagine if America tried annexing Baja California following the election of a leader we didn't particularly approve of, all because we think it belongs to us. Anyone who thinks such an action wouldn't run the (high) risk of a shooting war between the US and Mexico needs several large doses of lithium.

 

Luckily, nothing came of that. The War in Donetsk is still ongoing, but it's relatively contained. At this point, it would be the equivalent of the US fighting drug cartels in Mexico. Bloody— bloodier than most people realize even— but not going to explode into a world war.

 

A close second would be Turkey's downing of a Russian jet. That was an act of war, end of discussion. However, Turkey's a NATO member and is in a very critical location; the West can't just not come to their aid should a shooting war erupt. 

 

But again, nothing came of that.

 

Of course, if a future action were to be pursued as a Ferdinand Event, I suppose the assassination of Angela Merkel, Vladimir Putin, and/or Barrack Obama by an agent of ISIS would have to suffice. 


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#8
Maximus

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The Russian annexation of Crimea definitely could have been a flashpoint for world war. Even now, a likely scenario is that Ukrainian nationalists assassinate Putin if he visits Crimea and boom, Russian tanks are parading through Kiev the next day. You know the rest from there.

 

There's also quite a few possible flashpoints for war with China, like the South China sea, Taiwan, North Korea, etc.

 

Another scenario for future conflict would be a resource war, although I doubt that would cause a world war. It would probably involve developing nations fighting over water or food, or something like that.



#9
Yuli Ban

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"Ukrainian nationalists assassinate Putin"

 

Now that's a trigger for a world war if there ever were one. 

 

Also, we came damn close to having a flashpoint over Taiwan just a few weeks ago.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#10
Recyvuym

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More specifically his deregulation's that will cause the same problems as Hover and George w Bush caused to create a new global depression.


Matthew you do realise Bill Clinton was also responsible for that same deregulation? You should be more worried about his wife doing that.

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#11
PyroRobot

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I hope india destroys pakistan  and annexs it. Russia conquers ukraine and moldova along with georgia, armenia and azerbaijan. China conquers mongolia. America makes canada join america along with Cuba. The UK annexs Ireland. France gets belgium and swtizerland. saudi arabia annexes the arabian pennisula, australia and new zealand merge into 1 country. nepal and bangladesh join india. Iran takes afghanistan and turkmenistan. Egypt conquers sudan. Nigeria takes benin and togo.


I am done goodbye.


#12
Yuli Ban

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I hope india destroys pakistan  and annexs it. Russia conquers ukraine and moldova along with georgia, armenia and azerbaijan. China conquers mongolia. America makes canada join america along with Cuba. The UK annexs Ireland. France gets belgium and swtizerland. saudi arabia annexes the arabian pennisula, australia and new zealand merge into 1 country. nepal and bangladesh join india. Iran takes afghanistan and turkmenistan. Egypt conquers sudan. Nigeria takes benin and togo.

Why stop there?

 

Russia should invade all of Europe and annex it into its empire. All of Asia rightfully belongs to China, so nothing should stop them from taking over the likes of India and Indochina and Japan. The UK, US, and Australia need to realize that they have to stick together, so hopefully they'll also take Greenland, Central America, and South America.

 

Yeah, this'll be a perfect set up... All we need are names. Oh, I got it!

goqYZsp.png


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#13
TheComrade

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As I have been thinking about the topic it occurs to me that human history is littered with aborted fertile soil events, we pretty much shed them like skin cells through history. It's only when we get a good mix in the right places, and trip them off with a Ferdinand event that we seem to see them as contributing factors.

 

But I thought it was obvious and self-evident. This is NOT the "Ferdinand Event" that caused WW1, but much more serious reasons: competition between imperialist powers, protectionism, struggle for markets and so on. And "Ferdinand Event" was only the last drop (one of many possible drops).

 

The same way, to find next "Ferdinand Event" you firstly should see the real reasons for a future big war. What reasons? The modern world is very different from pre-WW1 world. Unlike few Great Powers of 1914, today we have only one superpower - USA. other "independent states" are either US vassals (oh sorry, i meant "allies") or just small and insignificant. There are, hovewer, two exceptions: China and Russia. Not that they can challenge the US hegemony (especially Russia), but their very existence makes this hegemony incomplete.

 

Russia is especially irritating: relatively weak and was already "defeated" in the end of Cold War but partially recovered and again dares to behave as independent great power. We still very well remember as in 2014 the US representative Samantha Power fell into powerless hysterics, right at the UN meeting:

 

Spoiler

 

Among other things, she screamed something like: "Who do you think you are? YOU were defeated, not we!" and this is very well demonstrates the worldview of US elite. So, let me guess, the current anti-Russian "cold war" would have started anyway, regardless of Ukraine and Crimea. And the next big war should be exactly the NATO invasion (oh sorry, i meant "peacekeeping operation") in Russia. The military preparations already began.

 

Yes, Russia have nukes but (as westerners think) will not dare to use them in responce to conventional war. Other than that, Russia seem weak: rusty weapons, drunken soldiers, stupid generals and corrupt politicians (at least so it portrayed in western media). Victory will be easy, isn't it? Just as easy as it was for Napoleon and Hitler... as for "Ferdinand Event" for this war, it may be anything, from "horrible persecution of gays" to "revealed Russian plans to conquer Estonia". Anyway, "our patience is over, the world community should react fast and decisive and send the clear message to aggressor. Fortunatelly, the significant number of our troops already deployed near Russian borders and ready to action. This morning they crossed the...etc".

 

As for China, it is literally the Germany of 1890-1900: rapidly growing power, dissatisfied with already established world order but still not strong enough to openly challenge the current hegemon. But it will definitely change in the future (imho during the next 20-30 years).



#14
kjaggard

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a Ferdinand event is the trigger event, trigger events don't happen in the void, they require things to be primed. The last drop as you call it. The thing that commits everybody to a course that cannot be taken back, where if it didn't happen things might defuse, or wax and wane and maybe trigger at another time, but when it happens the whole thing comes to fruition.

 

I hadn't thought of a Putin assassination. The guy strikes me as knowing enough to be prepared for that. Though it does make me realize that when he steps down, has a heart attack or gets killed that those shoes are not going to be easy to fill, even with his inner circle to manage the situation the next person in the seat will be Putin Lite and that's going to hurt the whole course of the country as well as relations and agreements with other countries who based their relationships on the character of Putin as Leader.

 

My feeling on the Ferdinand event is:

Of all the Damned places it will go down, it will be North Korea.

hear me out.

I'm Figuring the US preferrs to keep it cold with Russia, and that the EU faces destabalisation as other referendums have the bigger more stable economies from pulling out rather than continue to be donors to the failing ones. The economic upset and trade bickering resulting means spill over into NATO and UN relations, effectively filibustering any attempts to do anything useful.

Meanwhile Russia will protect is people in former territories like it protected the Crimean territories recently spreading its boarders again. And Trump will respect Putin for it and informally not get in the way while not commiting to anything. The EU will be too much a mess to do anything. (if in the off chance it's Hillary as president it may still go this way, but more because Hillary won't go in alone on Russian, the rest of NATO need to commit at least 50% to the opporation, we can't foot the bill for this otherwise, maybe some sanctions, blah blah blah, but nothing really hostile.)

 

But heres the thing, Trumps got a bug up his butt about China. It's part that he publically blames them for "taking our jobs" and so has to appear to at least hold that grudge, but He's a bully too, and bullies know damn well they can't allow anyone the chance to become a potential rival.

 

Funny thing is that China and Russia, you can't really crap on one without it bothering the other a bit. So Putin may be the thing that keeps Trump in line with regards to China.

 

So Putin grooming his replacement while still managing things from the background might still keep things in place but on the edge. But when something happens to the Great Marshal of North Korea...

 

If he dies of ill health or is assassinated without a son of age to take over... North Korea will be an atomic power, in complete chaos, and china their primary support and advisor who is already starting to show a bit of impatience with North Koreas actions may just decide they are the best choice as the one who have assisted so much in the past to stabalize the regions. Essentially absorbing north Korea.

 

I can imagine South Korea losing it's shit over that, and Japan won't be too impressed either. Both of whom have treaties with, you guessed it, The US whose Leader has a hate-on for China already, but China absorbing a Nuclear and heavily militarized nation... It's pretty much giving permission to react. Meanwhile china was not at a point where they were power enough to be the other super power to the USAs superpower. But China plus the North Korea military might be enough.

 

The US v China issue strains Russian US relations in eastern Europe. While a China, Russia, North Korea would be a powerhouse that could steamroll a struggling US stretched a bit from dealing with a middle east mess, tossing in Europe, and Canada, Aus, and NZ, things get a bit more World Warry.

 

Brazil and venezuela collapsing, and central american refugee crisis making a mess of south and central american and creating problems on the US southern boarder, and the middle east now free of a lot of attention goes to hell. The middle east will never be an organized faction in this fight and they aren't likely to pick among the others to side with it'll just be a mess of multiple civil wars with ISIL stirring the pot inside and outside the region, getting them all to deplete themselves while they expand their territories by offering food and infrastructure stability in the storm. Meanwhile terrorist activity keeps hitting areas in europe and even egging stuff on in Pakistan India relations causing tensions over Indian borders which are already problematic for china and India.

 

I'd wager northern africa will have some troubles with the Middle east and ISIL terrorism, it might even stress the central african nations enough to have bases from other countries though trying to remain neutral.

 

It's not going to be as clean as Axis and Allies was, this may have 3-5 factions and the combat will range from things like we see in the middle east now, to coldwar style conflicts with cyber attacks and insertion teams to disrupt infrastructure and military forces. There will be very few 'front lines'. Though international waters and space may well become areas of conflict as well.


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#15
Mike the average

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Asia pacific and indian borders would have to rate as the most volatile. As both will involve the only 2 countries that are relevant - US and China.

Everything else is either a skirmish, a stalemate, or a total occupation which doesnt cause ww3 because no other country actually cares unless they can get something out of it.

I think even just taiwans accidental bombing of a boat is more of a worry than russia occupying entire regions. God knows what wouldve happened if that was a chinese boat.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
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#16
Zeitgeist123

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the south china sea.


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#17
TheComrade

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I think even just taiwans accidental bombing of a boat is more of a worry than russia occupying entire regions.

 

I don't know why but i feel myself a bit insulted...



#18
Mike the average

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Sorry but Europes old and irrelevant these days. A blessing in disguise.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein

#19
Recyvuym

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I think even just taiwans accidental bombing of a boat is more of a worry than russia occupying entire regions.

 

I don't know why but i feel myself a bit insulted...

 

 

I actually took Mike's post to mean Russia and NATO are locked in stalemate. I know you're concerned they're going to march across the border any day (and so am I), but so far they haven't and we can only hope NATO isn't as nuts as they're making themselves out to be. The arms buildup strikes me as bluster - they know they can't do shit and they're throwing a tantrum. As long as Putin doesn't allow himself to be provoked into war, it's a deadlock.

 

Whereas the Taiwan incident earlier this year could so easily have escalated to WWIII within hours.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#20
nikkisixx101

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Crimea = Russia. It has been for centuries until in the 50's Kruschev assigned it to Ukraine when they were both in the same political entity. The people are Russian, want to be part of Russia and the only reason it became an issue was the US was inciting a political faction in the Ukraine to break away for financial reasons. The vast majority of the Russian population supported the move.

 

Crimea is none of the US buisness and if it counts as some "ferdinand" moment then it is because of the aggresion this country constantly directs at Russia stirring up  instability along there borders.

 

We want Ukraine to buy our arms and not Russia's thats what this is all about. 

 

Read things in debth the MSM is horrible for geo-political stuff.







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