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What will be our Ferdinand Event?

WW3 world war

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#41
kjaggard

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So I'll pull this back toward the top.

 

North Korean missile test while staring down Japan, While Japan has a diplomatic meeting with the Trump-in-chief. It feels like sides are being lined up in the Pacific.

 

and now News is there is an assasination in the Family of the North Korean leadership. Expect crackdowns to follow that are terrifying violations of human rights and a sense of growing paranoia and public shows of power to NK nation and international communities.

 

I expect this to make countries like Japan Nervous, and to lean toward Allied nations like the US.

 

And that Taiwan situation may come back up. It's a great place to stage military operations in the seas around that area. And the first interactions of Trump annoyed China enough that they may not support reactions to NKs behavior, in some ways possibly forcing the hand of Trumps team to negotiate with Taiwan instead which China has stated in the past it would see as an act of potential war.

 

so the area bares watching in the coming months.


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#42
TranscendingGod

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North Korea? That miserable state? Hardly something worth starting WWIII over and in fact I can't imagine the Chinese backing the state if they were to be the unequivocal provocateurs.  


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#43
Raklian

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China should just annex North Korea and be done with it.

 

Yes, South Koreans may have strong objections about it given it's in their fervent hope both Koreas will unify into one nation but that's going to always be a distant dream. There's too much politics involved when it concerns China's relationship with USA on this geopolitical front. China taking over North Korea and implementing state controls like the rest of the country would actually solve USA's current problem it has with an unruly rogue state with nuclear weapons. South Korea can't prop up the failed state on its own but China has the resources to do so.


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#44
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So I'll pull this back toward the top.

 

North Korean missile test while staring down Japan, While Japan has a diplomatic meeting with the Trump-in-chief. It feels like sides are being lined up in the Pacific.

 

and now News is there is an assasination in the Family of the North Korean leadership. Expect crackdowns to follow that are terrifying violations of human rights and a sense of growing paranoia and public shows of power to NK nation and international communities.

 

I expect this to make countries like Japan Nervous, and to lean toward Allied nations like the US.

 

And that Taiwan situation may come back up. It's a great place to stage military operations in the seas around that area. And the first interactions of Trump annoyed China enough that they may not support reactions to NKs behavior, in some ways possibly forcing the hand of Trumps team to negotiate with Taiwan instead which China has stated in the past it would see as an act of potential war.

 

so the area bares watching in the coming months.

While it does bear close observation, I have an odd feeling that this isn't the event you're looking for. Expect more geopolitical intrigue, but I'm not so sure it'll lead to a shooting war.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#45
Raklian

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While it does bear close observation, I have an odd feeling that this isn't the event you're looking for. Expect more geopolitical intrigue, but I'm not so sure it'll lead to a shooting war.

 

 

Right. We're now living in a world where multiple countries each have at least hundred nuclear weapons ready to be unleashed.

 

So... the bar is helluva lot higher compared to the past to actually risk starting a shooting war.


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#46
Yuli Ban

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Not to mention that the Norks are not as psychotic as they're popularly believed to be. They're not like the legitimately schizophrenic Khmer Rouge— they know they can't win any war they fall into, and they're not so suicidal as to go out looking for a war. 

They're totalitarian madmen, undoubtedly, but they're interested more in self-preservation than anything. They're already close to being estranged to China— just a couple years ago, they denounced China as an enemy state. China, without question, knows that it would be an infinitely better option to simply annex North Korea if only they could be assured the geopolitical fallout would not be so tremendous as we know it would be.

 

 

MAD is not just a phenomenon for the whole world. It can exist for singular regions. That's the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula. If they get into a war with the South, they get wiped out too. No one wins. And if they survive, they all head into exile, possibly into prison or even to the wall. 

 

It's not like in 1914 or 1939 where the leaders of the autocracies and totalitarian states genuinely believed they had a shot at winning— they know they'd lose any war. South Korean propaganda may make them sound like loonies who believe they could land on the sun if they went at night, but the DPRK is still composed of humans.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#47
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China should just annex North Korea and be done with it.

 

Yes, South Koreans may have strong objections about it given it's in their fervent hope both Koreas will unify into one nation but that's going to always be a distant dream. There's too much politics involved when it concerns China's relationship with USA on this geopolitical front. China taking over North Korea and implementing state controls like the rest of the country would actually solve USA's current problem it has with an unruly rogue state with nuclear weapons. South Korea can't prop up the failed state on its own but China has the resources to do so.

 

Interesting idea, although I don't think that America will particularly enjoy the idea of a "communist" country i.e radically different ideologically, taking control of a particularly important territory with nuclear weapons. Remember that China will almost completely surround South Korea then which would be highly opposed to IMO.

 

Also, I really don't think that the UN would approve of this, if I'm assuming that N.Korea do not want to be annexed. 

 

I think the only likely scenario that China would annex N.Korea is if korea explicitly acted upon a relatively violent or aggressive manoeuvre. So far N.Korea have only been yelling with a big mouth and showing countries their debatable military strength, however never acting aggressively. 

 

I'm just wondering though, would N.Korea want to be annexed with China? Seen as though they both held communist ideals during the cold war and are somewhat allies? Hmm


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#48
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I'm just wondering though, would N.Korea want to be annexed with China? Seen as though they both held communist ideals during the cold war and are somewhat allies? Hmm

1: They may have both been communist at one point, but they've long since separated ideologically. 

North Korea no longer considers itself communist. They're a socialist Juche nation that bears more in common with national-socialism (read: not Nazism) than any Marxian strain of communism. Likewise, most communists have abandoned them (I'm sure Joe will too, eventually), only paying lip support for their generally anti-Western stance. Mao only tolerated Kim Il-Sung at best; the CCP sees North Korea only as a buffer state. Maybe once upon a time, they saw them as an ally, but that was so long ago that only the oldest Party members can remember those days. And they probably regret those days. Xi Jinping is something of a more colorful, less ideological successor to Mao. And it's through his regime that China's been most hostile towards North Korea. 

 

2: 'Somewhat allies' is the understatement of the decade. China and North Korea have that relationship of a mean old dog and a sick feral cat kept in the same abandoned house. The old dog keeps pests away from the house because it views it as its territory, even if that includes that cat. If the old dog could be rid of the cat, that'd be incredible. And the cat would love nothing more than to be healthy and own the house itself. 

 

They're "allies" in the absolute loosest sense of the world. If North Korea weren't directly connected to China and a buffer between the mainland and the US-backed South Korea, the CCP probably wouldn't give two shits about them.

 

 

China annexing North Korea would be the best possible route. It doesn't even have to be a "hard" annexation. It could be something like a more tightly-controlled version of One Country, Two Systems that they have with Hong Kong. They get rid of the Kims, purge the DPRK elite, and establish a much more pro-China regime. They then fix the country, granting it full access to all the goods and services the mainland receives in return for their natural resources and probably become a genuinely "Red" version of the South. No more starving masses; no more famines; better responses to floods; infrastructure is improved exponentially; education is improved infinitely; taking what little worked under the Nork system and fusing it with Chinese-style socialism. 

20 years later, North Korea is a wealthy and advanced nation that happens to have a socialist government, and they pursue peaceful reunification with the South, and reunification finally occurs. What was once the North is still socialist and pro-Chinese, just like how many nations have different regions that have their own particularly political unions. But, of course, it's not like the Kim's Korea seeking to reunify with the South, as if South Korea was going to merge with an impoverished totalitarian state (especially for as long as the USA had a say in the matter).


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#49
kjaggard

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I think the thing I keep coming back to is that logistically these ideas seem like a hard sell, but we are dealing with certain world leaders who genuinely don't seem to have a head for legistics, don't listen to others, and really like to tell you how great they are and get pissy when others negative things about them.

 

Trump has had a bug up his butt over things in asian even before he announced his run. He's not exactly showed any respect for how this work over there. and I'm reminded of a conversation I had at my last job with a MAGette (sorry I couldn't help that one, it just happened and it amused me); the guy was former navy, believes we need a world leader who will make the lesser nations fall in line and show we are done with push over leader worried about their feelings, that America needs to dominate. Specifically he asked me "Do you think Obama was good as a president?" and talked like Obama had single handed begun to dismantle the US military. My response was simply, "Obama was a Diplomat." he took that as a condemnation.

 

Therein lies the problem, because while trump supporters may seem like authoritarian egotists, it's not just the supporters. The administration itself is steeped in the same broth.

 

World leaders have always had a delicate spot about insults from others, but this administration made it's first announcement a defense about the size of crowds at the swearing in, and has complained that the media is not being nice... and then refused to answer questions at a press event from those he doesn't like, while constantly complaining in public about the 'biased lying media".

 

Trump thin skin, love of power and no hesitation to use it, antagonism of China even early in the election process, willful ignorance of the worlds political currents, and so much more, make this more of a psychological observation of what people like these leaders could end up doing than it is about what makes sense from long term plans with an awareness of historical patterns for the relations between nations.

 

 

Also as a reminder, My original proposal for the percipitation of North Korean requires that the Leader with an iron grip on everything is eliminated by natural on non-natural forces, and the lack of control opens a competition for control in a country that likes to do demonstrate missile launches while glaring at Japan and has Declared President Obama crossed the red line by supporting sanctions and refused to use diplomatic communications and instead tried to make it's interactions with the US go through wartime channels.

 

So either a coup of a civil war in the area with people vying for the leadership who respond and act like that to neighboring countries and world powers. It's not as preposterous as it sounds.


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#50
kjaggard

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I don't think these latest events are quite right for it. It's like watching a bad dub, where the lips move in silence and then when the lips stop words can be heard but nobody is speaking. The timing is off on it all.

 

The thing about a lead up to a world war is it's a series of waves of events that in themselves don't set anything off but establish a frequency which when the trigger hits it takes advantage of that frequency to break apart world structures.

 

It's why I say this year will be a lot of false starts and near misses. They are establishing the volatile frequency into which the ferdinand event will play.

 

It's also helpful if we he the cry "wolf" enough that we stop jumping up to check, because it's just another bumbling of political ineptitudes like the last 14. I will benefit from the fact that we don't take it seriously until it has too much momentum to do anything against it.

 

I do feel that it kind of has to happen in the next 3 years, with enough chances to give a sense of nationalistic heroes and champions against the evil opposition to perpetuate the nationalistic trends of late that sort of set the groundwork for what's to come.

 

Usually that is followed by the quagmire and war weariness before the shear stubborness and then desperate push that drives last thump that puts a foot down to bring it all to an end. That might happen, but I feel like it's more likely this time around we won't get to the stubborness, desperation and final thump that stops the whole mess and lets a series of experiments and philosophies take root in the attempts to rebuild which ultimately leads to cold wars and superpower conflicts that amount to posturing and threats from people who remember how desperate it was and are not ready to go there yet again. It allows them to decide to figure out ways to back off while saving face while they try to be just a little more ready.

 

I feel like this time, we will hit the weariness phase and settle into luke warm war. Not quite ending the world war, but not at the same frantic pace of full on world conquering wars. Becoming a sort of chronic condition. It might slide into cold wars for a bit but without the ending of the early war there may be things like so many of those cold wars close calls that are not close but actually fan the flames for a year or two before letting it settle back for a time before flairing again.

 

The conflicts will provoke industry, and innovations and push us to new heights again. It's also likely to do some 'interesting' things to population and resource statistics.

 

huh, I wonder if this also might provide a good breeding ground for that global pandemic that Gates and many others say isn't a matter of if, but when?


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#51
kjaggard

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Alright, I think  as of right now I will say the coming Operation Gangnam Shield situation is about a 42% chance of Ferdinand event itself. I think this is just the primer.

 

The two Blowhards will push each other too far and we will get a Dessert storm like event that ends in a crippled N. Korea still in it's current regime but being handled by Outsiders under the influence of the Devils in Japan and the US. China has already scolded both sides and stated they well not support anyone starting anything, and Russia has offered the same sort of reply to the situation, while Japan and Australia are siding with US posturing and the UN is talking like it will allow this to happen if the justifications are presented.

 

North Korean leadership won't be less paranoid or more willing to be more humanitarian and less authoritarian just because somebody more powerful thumped them. The after effect of that conflict will be the death throws of that tiny empire, and coup attempts or civil war ramping up as the looming end gets closer. The US will keep making calls about violations (some real and some paranoid) to the agreements at the end of the Gangnam Shield action.

 

And then I think NK leadership ends and the Vacuum results in a mess. Only this time it's a mess that Russia, China, US, Japan, Australia, and S Korea all have something riding on the outcome. And the thing is that No matter which side comes through they will likely still see the US and Japan (and allies like Australia) as the evil outsiders. They may not be particularly enamored with China or Russia either. But all players will have a vested interest in making sure missile lobbing extremists don't get into the positions of leadership.

 

Having this Mess on their doorstep will not appeal to China after they tried to discourage it. And they may well have an ally in Russia for those sentiments. But lets not pretend its China and Russia, best friends forever. This Is more like Russia and the US were allies in the World Wars.

 

More interestingly from my view over here in the US, we can expect a sense of victory over the NK leadership in the first round that will have Trump riding high for 'solving' that problematic korean situation that's been going for almost trumps whole life. While turmoil in the EU breaking up and the crumbling of trade as new trade negotiations choke on blame for the economic situation flying around, it will make things like the brexit look like a near escape and Trumps backing brexit and disrupting US trade deals look like a protective measure. The 'contraction' is easily blamed on outside problems that would be worse if not for the actions of Trump.

 

And that coupled with a quagmire of devided opposition to an Encumbant should get US a second term for Trump. Shortly after that happens I expect the depression to hit full swing in much of the western world and be underway in the rest of the world. The ferdinand event will happen around this time. Though it might not immediately be recognised as such. It will likely be a multi fronted conflict with more than two sides And a year or two in you can expect the alliances to have changed a little.

 

I still feel like somewhere in his second term we can expect trump to be gone. I think it's possible that it will be health or assasination, but I won't rule out Nixon style resignment of impeachment proceedings.

 

and the future past that is blurry, and heavily dependent on things far enough out to not have enough to go on.


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Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#52
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I don't think we are there just yet, but right now feels like an elephant in a mine field, eventually it'll hit a landmine and it will fall setting off all the surrounding ones too. Things don't feel right for it just yet.


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Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#53
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Now that Donald Trump has lost his bid for re-election and will only be president for 6 days, I think it is a good time to resurrect this thread. Also, it has been four years since the last post, but it feels like there won't be a Ferdinand event until COVID-19 has been dealt with.


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#54
Guyverman1990

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Now that Donald Trump has lost his bid for re-election and will only be president for 6 days, I think it is a good time to resurrect this thread. Also, it has been four years since the last post, but it feels like there won't be a Ferdinand event until COVID-19 has been dealt with.

Unless some rabid Trump supporter tries to assassinate Biden.



#55
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Now that Donald Trump has lost his bid for re-election and will only be president for 6 days, I think it is a good time to resurrect this thread. Also, it has been four years since the last post, but it feels like there won't be a Ferdinand event until COVID-19 has been dealt with.

Unless some rabid Trump supporter tries to assassinate Biden.

 

@Guyverman1990, did you read the first post of this thread which explains what a Ferdinand Event is, because even a successful assassination of Joe Biden by a fanatic Trump supporter would not cause World War 3 to happen.


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