Alright, I think as of right now I will say the coming Operation Gangnam Shield situation is about a 42% chance of Ferdinand event itself. I think this is just the primer.
The two Blowhards will push each other too far and we will get a Dessert storm like event that ends in a crippled N. Korea still in it's current regime but being handled by Outsiders under the influence of the Devils in Japan and the US. China has already scolded both sides and stated they well not support anyone starting anything, and Russia has offered the same sort of reply to the situation, while Japan and Australia are siding with US posturing and the UN is talking like it will allow this to happen if the justifications are presented.
North Korean leadership won't be less paranoid or more willing to be more humanitarian and less authoritarian just because somebody more powerful thumped them. The after effect of that conflict will be the death throws of that tiny empire, and coup attempts or civil war ramping up as the looming end gets closer. The US will keep making calls about violations (some real and some paranoid) to the agreements at the end of the Gangnam Shield action.
And then I think NK leadership ends and the Vacuum results in a mess. Only this time it's a mess that Russia, China, US, Japan, Australia, and S Korea all have something riding on the outcome. And the thing is that No matter which side comes through they will likely still see the US and Japan (and allies like Australia) as the evil outsiders. They may not be particularly enamored with China or Russia either. But all players will have a vested interest in making sure missile lobbing extremists don't get into the positions of leadership.
Having this Mess on their doorstep will not appeal to China after they tried to discourage it. And they may well have an ally in Russia for those sentiments. But lets not pretend its China and Russia, best friends forever. This Is more like Russia and the US were allies in the World Wars.
More interestingly from my view over here in the US, we can expect a sense of victory over the NK leadership in the first round that will have Trump riding high for 'solving' that problematic korean situation that's been going for almost trumps whole life. While turmoil in the EU breaking up and the crumbling of trade as new trade negotiations choke on blame for the economic situation flying around, it will make things like the brexit look like a near escape and Trumps backing brexit and disrupting US trade deals look like a protective measure. The 'contraction' is easily blamed on outside problems that would be worse if not for the actions of Trump.
And that coupled with a quagmire of devided opposition to an Encumbant should get US a second term for Trump. Shortly after that happens I expect the depression to hit full swing in much of the western world and be underway in the rest of the world. The ferdinand event will happen around this time. Though it might not immediately be recognised as such. It will likely be a multi fronted conflict with more than two sides And a year or two in you can expect the alliances to have changed a little.
I still feel like somewhere in his second term we can expect trump to be gone. I think it's possible that it will be health or assasination, but I won't rule out Nixon style resignment of impeachment proceedings.
and the future past that is blurry, and heavily dependent on things far enough out to not have enough to go on.
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