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The Future of U.S. - Russian Relations

United States Russia Vladimir Putin Hillary Clinton International diplomacy

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#581
Alislaws

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The highlighted area shows a rise rather than a crash? 

 

 

This is an increase in bond yields, caused by a fall in prices (a drop in demand).

 

Ah thanks for clarifying!



#582
caltrek

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Trump Is Selling Out America, and His Supporters Love It

 

http://prospect.org/...porters-love-it

 

Introduction:

 

(American Prospect) President Donald J. Trump loves Vladimir Putin, the Russian strongman—as do the right-wingers who love Trump. 

 

Some on the far right see Putin as the restorer of Christendom; others simply see him as a champion of the white race. Donald Trump apparently sees Putin as the savior of, well, Donald Trump.

 

But motives hardly matter in this new time; for white nationalists like former White House strategist Steve Bannon, Trump’s weakness for Putin serves Bannon’s dark vision for a reordering of the world, one that has little respect for democracy or civil rights. In the days preceding Trump’s visit to London, Bannon got himself a nice hotel suite in which he courted European far-right leaders, such as Brexiteer Nigel Farage and the National Front’s Louis Aliot—during which he stoked the chaos gripping the government of the United Kingdom over negotiations with the European Union over the terms of the U.K.’s exit from that economic alliance.

 

As he did in Britain, Trump adhered to the Bannon playbook in Brussels—this time wreaking havoc at the NATO summit with demands that NATO allies double the percentage of each nation’s gross domestic product it pledges to devote to defense spending.

 

And it was all capped off by that disastrous press conference in Helsinki, at which Trump demonstrated a fealty to the Russian president in far greater measure than any commitment he maintains to uphold the Constitution of the United States. As Trump entertained Putin’s proposal for turning over a former U.S. diplomat for questioning by the Kremlin, he demonstrated his respect for the Constitution to be not so much.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#583
caltrek

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Why Russian Spies Really Like American Universities

 

https://www.propubli...an-universities

 

Introduction:

 

(ProPublica) Under the alias Cynthia Murphy, Russian spy Lydia Guryeva attended Columbia Business School, and ingratiated herself with a key fundraiser for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign. Guryeva’s instructions from Moscow, according to a 2010 FBI complaint, were to “strengthen…ties w. classmates on daily basis incl. professors who can help in job search and who will have (or already have) access to secret info” and to report “on their detailed personal data and character traits w. preliminary conclusions about their potential (vulnerability) to be recruited by Service.”

 

Now another graduate student at an urban East Coast university, who similarly cultivated powerbrokers and political operatives, is accused of being a Russian spy and taking orders from high-ranking officials in her homeland. Maria Butina, who received a master’s degree in international relations this past spring from American University in Washington, D.C., courted the National Rifle Association’s top guns and sought access to Republican presidential candidates Scott Walker and Donald Trump. She pleaded innocent last week to charges of conspiring to act as a foreign agent.

 

If the charges against Butina are accurate, she’s only the latest in a long line of Russian agents to infiltrate U.S. universities. Dating back to the Soviet era, Russian spies have sought to take advantage of academia's lax security, collaborative, global culture, and revolving door with government. Russian intelligence understands that today’s professor of international relations may be tomorrow’s assistant secretary of state, and vice versa. Although cyber-spying and hacking offer opportunities to glean secrets at less personal risk, the traditional strategies of human espionage persist, and sending a spy to school is prominent among them.

 

In that respect, little has changed since 1938, when Semyon Markovich Semyonov became the first Soviet agent to enroll at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and made contacts vital to stealing scientific secrets.

20180723-spy-students-3x2.jpg

Maria Butina pleaded innocent last week to charges of conspiring to act as a foreign agent.

(AP Photo)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#584
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Russian Prime Minister Warns US Against Sanctions

 

https://www.courthou...inst-sanctions/

 

Introduction:

 

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s prime minister sternly warned the United States on Friday against ramping up sanctions, saying that Moscow will retaliate with economic, political and unspecified “other” means.

 

The tough message from Dmitry Medvedev marked what the Kremlin sees as a red line, reflecting a growing dismay with the new U.S. sanctions that already has sent the Russian ruble plummeting to its lowest level in two years.

 

The U.S. State Department said Wednesday that Washington made the determination this week that Moscow had used the Novichok nerve agent to poison ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the British city of Salisbury and that sanctions would follow later this month. Russia has strongly denied involvement in the poisoning.

 

According to the State Department, those sanctions will include the presumed denial of export licenses for Russia to purchase many items with national security implications.

 

New sanctions proposals in U.S. Congress include legislation targeting Russia’s state-controlled banks and freezing their operations in dollars — a move that would deal a heavy blow to the Russian economy.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#585
PhoenixRu

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The tough message from Dmitry Medvedev marked what the Kremlin sees as a red line, reflecting a growing dismay with the new U.S. sanctions that already has sent the Russian ruble plummeting to its lowest level in two years.

 

America knows how to create enemies. Back in 2000-s, all our "kleptocrats", as you call them, were entirely pro-Western and dreamed to become the part of global financial elite, to sit at the same table with Rothschilds... Many years they whined "Dear West, why so much hatred? Why?". Even in 2014 they believed that "these troubles will not last long".

 

But America was stubborn and eventually succeeded... managed to turn even THEM into fierce "patriots" and fearless defenders of "Russian World". They just have no other choise: the situation reached the point where (from the point of Russian elite) destruction of Pax Americana already looks easier and more realistic than reconciliation.



#586
Yuli Ban

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There was actually a post from a Russian on Reddit that explained the mindset well:
kwonza

Russian here, you seem to be locked in this weird narrative of yours that paints all this undemocratic but formidable countries working against America. Sure in certain issues position of our countries may differ, we compete on many global markets against US goods and resources, all this more or less in the spirit of capitalism and free market.
 
That being said, I can’t really put my finger on any specific example when Russia (not sure about China) as you’ve said “jumped on some random opportunity just to spite Uncle Sam. Moreover, despite our previous ideological antagonism and vivid and intense history of spy shenanigans on both sides, whenever Americans were really in trouble we were there to help without questions and conditions.
 
Remember how, you guys, were backing up Chechen separatists in throughout all the 90’s? These Islamic radicals partially were supported by the closest and most loyal ally that US ever had – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Thanks to their money and support Separatist were able to carry out multiple attacks on Russian citizens for more than a decade. To be honest everyone was rather pissed about your position: one day Clinton was kissing with Yeltsin and calling him “My friend Boris”, next day your the US Administration publicly demands Russia to leave poor Chechnya alone. And we thought we were friends!
 
Anyway, despite all that US indirect support of violent religious groups, occasional weekly CNN reports painting Russia as a bloodthirsty monster, NATO growing aggressively closer and closer to our borders, despite all that shit constantly coming our way, the moment those two towers fell we were the FIRST nation in the world to contact you and offer our full military support and cooperation.
 
You’ve asked us to help you supplying your troops in Afghanistan via our railroad networks, and we have you access to do just that. In return for that, just with 4 years time, you’ve turned Afghanistan into a powerhouse of heroin production, as of now 90% of all H is produced there. These drugs go through Asia and in part through Russia, because of that there were more than twenty thousand additional deaths among Russian addicts in 2005 alone.
 
You’ve also spent time resources training the Georgian (country) army and arming them to the teeth with all your latest weapons and gadgets, our Army at that moment was critically understaffed and unequipped, this was actually what had kickstarted the massive reforms and modernization for our Armed Forces in the first place. We were so unprepared for that conflict it was only a miracle (and partially Georgian incompetence) that saved us all from a possible embarrassment and further problems.
 
I can’t say for everyone here, but some people here saw that attempt of a foreign superpower to organize a second-hand invasion using our hapless but opportunistic neighbor as something that wouldn’t improve our bilateral relations. Some have called it a dick move, for this and various other reasons.
 
And yet again, despite clear signs of unfriendliness in diplomatic level again and again show towards Russia, we weren’t holding any serious grudge against our old neighbors from over the Bering straight. Remember when Discovery’s tragedy had suddenly put a stop on all your Space research programs and thrown several of your space-related industries into serious jeopardy? By your logic we should have simply said you to go fuck yourself and ground NASA for more than decade, would have been a decent head-start for us, and quite a major humiliation for you. We didn’t do that either, we let you catch a ride on our Soyuz ships even thought they are tiny inside, we have you a permanent seat with us, because we believe that you should help those in trouble and don’t hold anything against them.
 
I can’t say I know any person from Russia who actually dislikes America or wants to see the country dead and destroyed (although I never really hang out with hard-core patriotic crowds, can’t vouch for them). We compete, sure, but it’s that constant arms race, space race and other races we’ve hard, that helped and encouraged both of our countries to work harder, to achieve more and to try and be better. Our countries need each other, the moment we stop pulling each other down is the moment we would actually open a first page of in the book of Space colonization.
 
And stop this crap about presuming we hate you for some reason. We don’t, we don’t even hate Germans because what’s gone is gone and they’ve changed for the better, so if we don’t hate them, why on Earth would we seriously hate you, Yanks? That said, we do think you can work on yourself as a country, the biggest issue you should address is that overgrown monstrosity that used to be your armed forces. Nowadays it sometimes hard to tell for sure between you two, who, in fact, controls who in this relationship.
 
Also, it’s great that you have this wide discourse about how foreign Intelligence services shouldn’t be the ones who chose the candidate. That is a great and very modern idea, glad you’ve come to this conclusion. Perhaps now we can address that US was unchallenged king of a state-level cyber-bullying for almost two decades? Try doing what you preach and see how it goes?
 
We don’t need your friendship, but the future of mankind does, this time we’ll let you decide. Perhaps it’s time to get over that little prank that we’ve made your leader and move from the language of vague threats and try establishing an productive conversation for a change? And if it turns out that your pride makes it impossible to see us and other countries as equals, and you chose to stick with that “superpower talks to lesser powers” type of condescending moralizing that you’ve been doing non-stop since 93, well, just keep one thing in mind: when you try to put pressure on Russia, you don’t actually squeezing it that much, instead, you just keep pushing us closer and closer to China each time, almost as if forcing us to work together. We don’t mind working with China, they’re fine, just don’t end up being full of regrets later on, it was your decision after all.

 
 
To which my response was: 

American here: you have to remember that we were an extremely isolationist country until roughly the middle of last century. Mix early European exceptionalism, puritanical religiosity coupled with a long-standing culture of rebellion, the need to expand across a territory roughly the size of the entire old world over the course of a few centuries, and dogmatic isolationism and you have the roots of the modern day schizophrenic American psyche. We were blessed with the gift of power after the entirety of the Old World decided to destroy itself over the course of 30+ years while we emerged unscathed. Thus, we became #1 during a time when #2 was either a South American banana republic or a smoldering field of graves and ruins. We aren't exactly ready to share the world with nations of equal power.
 
In truth, we're all just waiting for China to rise above us. We know it's inevitable.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#587
DanielHardly

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Calm down everyone!!! Every individual has their own opinion.



#588
Raklian

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The tough message from Dmitry Medvedev marked what the Kremlin sees as a red line, reflecting a growing dismay with the new U.S. sanctions that already has sent the Russian ruble plummeting to its lowest level in two years.

 

America knows how to create enemies. Back in 2000-s, all our "kleptocrats", as you call them, were entirely pro-Western and dreamed to become the part of global financial elite, to sit at the same table with Rothschilds... Many years they whined "Dear West, why so much hatred? Why?". Even in 2014 they believed that "these troubles will not last long".

 

But America was stubborn and eventually succeeded... managed to turn even THEM into fierce "patriots" and fearless defenders of "Russian World". They just have no other choise: the situation reached the point where (from the point of Russian elite) destruction of Pax Americana already looks easier and more realistic than reconciliation.

 

 

That rationalization doesn't make an ounce of sense since it's not based on reality. From every Russian I've met and talked with, they don't want America's destruction.

 

So what gives, huh?

 

I think you're speaking for yourself from your deepest desires. There's nothing wrong with that, really.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#589
PhoenixRu

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That rationalization doesn't make an ounce of sense since it's not based on reality. From every Russian I've met and talked with, they don't want America's destruction.

 

1) Perhaps you didn't noticed "from the point of Russian elite" phrase. Also "seems more realistic" doesn't mean "desirable".

 

2) Let me guess, you talked only to "Russians" living in USA. These "Russians" has very specific mindset, to put it mildly...

 

3) But if even you met me IRL, I'd most likely said the same: "Yes, USA is wonderful, i admire this and this, let's become good friends..." - but this would be the usual polite lies.

 

I think you're speaking for yourself from your deepest desires. There's nothing wrong with that, really.

 

Oh man, if only you knew Russian... I'd be glad to show you our political forums and you'd quickly realized how moderate i actually am.



#590
BasilBerylium

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Calm down everyone!!! Every individual has their own opinion.

Welcome to FutureTimeline Forum.


  • PhoenixRu likes this

This website has a magic that makes people draw back here like moths to light.


#591
Alislaws

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 They just have no other choise: the situation reached the point where (from the point of Russian elite) destruction of Pax Americana already looks easier and more realistic than reconciliation.

 

 

That rationalization doesn't make an ounce of sense since it's not based on reality. From every Russian I've met and talked with, they don't want America's destruction.

 

Wanting to destroy "Pax Americana" is very different from wanting to destroy the USA.

 

From Wikipedia:

 

Pax Americana is primarily used in its modern connotations to refer to the peace among great powers established after the end of World War II in 1945, also called the Long Peace. In this modern sense, it has come to indicate the military and economic position of the United States in relation to other nations.

 

So while Russians may not be advocating the destruction of  the USA, it seems reasonable to me that the Russians would absolutely welcome a more multipolar world, or even a Chinese led world, (and obvs. they'd be happy if Russia could take on a more leading role) given the ongoing friction between the USA and Russia. (Sanctions etc.)



#592
caltrek

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DOJ Charges Seven Russians in Massive Anti-Doping Cyberattacks

 

https://www.courthou...i-doping-hacks/

 

Introduction:

 

(Courthouse News) – The Justice Department on Thursday announced charges against seven Russian military intelligence officials for their role in a massive cyberattack aimed at U.S. and international organizations that exposed a Kremlin-sponsored doping conspiracy tied to Russian athletes.

 

The seven intelligence officials were indicted by a grand jury in the Western District of Pennsylvania and their charges included computer hacking, aggravated identity theft, money laundering and wire fraud, according to John Demers, assistant attorney general for national security.

 

The officers “publicized stolen information as part of an influence and disinformation campaign designed to undermine, retaliate against and otherwise delegitimize” the World Anti-Doping Agency’s exposure of Russian-state sponsored athlete doping programs, Demers said.

 

Demers emphasized that while three of the seven intelligence officers named Thursday were previously identified by the special counsel’s office for charges related to interference in the 2016 election, the charges announced Thursday morning were not brought by Robert Mueller.

 

In addition to the World Anti-Doping Agency, the hackers also targeted the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency, the Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sports and FIFA, the international organization which conducts oversight for soccer and other entities.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#593
caltrek

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Russian Paper: Indicted Prigozhin Ordered Beatings, Killing

 

https://www.courthou...atings-killing/

 

Introduction:

 

MOSCOW (AP) — A security aide to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman who has been indicted by American investigators for allegedly trying to interfere with the 2016 U.S. election, says the mogul has been involved in attacks on several people and at least one killing, an independent Russian newspaper reported Monday.

 

Prigozhin has been dubbed “Putin’s chef” for organizing catering events for Russian President Vladimir Putin and even personally serving him and his guests on some occasions.

 

The Novaya Gazeta article Monday by reporter Denis Korotkov came out several days after unknown people sent a funeral wreath to the journalist’s home and left a basket with a severed goat’s head at the newspaper’s office.

 

Korotkov’s article relies on several interviews with Valery Alemchenko, a former convict who worked for Prigozhin. Alemchenko said he orchestrated attacks on Prigozhin’s opponents as well as the killing of an opposition blogger in northwest Russia, all at the mogul’s behalf.

 

Amelchenko also said several people working for Prigozhin had traveled to Syria last year to test an unknown poison on Syrians who refused to fight for Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government. Novaya Gazeta corroborated the account with two other sources.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#594
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Indicted Russian Firm Loses Challenge to Mueller

 

https://www.courthou...nge-to-mueller/

 

Introduction:

 

WASHINGTON (CN) – A federal judge refused Thursday to dismiss charges against a Russian company that Special Counsel Robert Mueller accuses of having aided the Russian attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election.

 

Concord Management and Consulting asked U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich in July to dismiss the indictment filed against it, claiming Mueller had failed to prove the conspiracy charges a grand jury returned in February. According to the indictment, Concord helped fund Russian internet troll farms that supported Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump or attacked his opponent, Hillary Clinton, all without registering with the U.S. government.

 

Concord attacked the indictment on the grounds that it did not allege the company “actually violated” any federal law by working to influence the election.

 

But Friedrich found Thursday that Mueller needed only to show that the company “intended to frustrate” lawful functions of the federal government through the conspiracy — a bar the special counsel’s office so far has cleared. Friedrich said Mueller did not need to show what Concord did was necessarily “criminal” on its own, just that it “violated a legal duty and was therefore deceptive.”

 

“The indictment alleges that the defendants agreed to a course of conduct that would violate [the Federal Election Campaign Act] and [the Foreign Agent Registration Act]’s disclosure requirements, and provides specific examples of the kinds of expenditures and activities that required disclosure,” Friedrich wrote in a 32-page opinion. “At this stage, that is more than enough.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#595
caltrek

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Putin: Arms Control to Top Agenda in Meeting With Trump

 

https://www.courthou...ing-with-trump/

 

Complete Article:

 

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin says arms control issues will likely top the agenda of his planned meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.

 

Putin says the leaders need to discuss the future of the 2011 New START agreement and the situation around the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty.

 

Trump has declared his intention to withdraw from the INF, which was signed by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

 

Putin said Thursday that if he and Trump meet as expected at the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Argentina later this month, they would also discuss Syria, North Korea and Iran.

 

Putin says he spoke Thursday with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence at the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Singapore, touching on arms control and other issues.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#596
caltrek

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Accused Russian Spy, Government Seek Hearing Delay

 

https://www.courthou...-hearing-delay/

 

Introduction:

 

WASHINGTON (Courthouse News) – Looking for more time to negotiate “a potential resolution” to her case, attorneys for both the government and accused Russian spy Maria Butina asked a federal judge on Friday to delay a hearing scheduled for early December.

 

In the three-page joint filing on Friday, the attorneys in the case said the parties are in ongoing negotiations about “a potential resolution” and that this back and forth could be “hindered by simultaneously engaging in motions practice.”

 

The request comes a day after Butina’s attorneys asked U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to toss out the charges against their client on the grounds that the law under which she is charged is unconstitutional. Butina’s attorneys have agreed to withdraw that request if Chutkan delays the Dec. 6 hearings, though they will reserve the right to file it again under a new motions schedule, according to the joint motion filed Friday.

 

The parties request that Chutkan schedule a new hearing on Dec. 18 or 19 and delay filing deadlines accordingly.

 

Robert Driscoll, who represents Butina alongside fellow McGlinchey Stafford attorney Alfred Carry, did not immediately return a request for comment. The Justice Department declined to comment on the filing.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#597
caltrek

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Trump’s Defense Secretary Says Russia Targeted the Midterms. What Does Mattis Know?

 

https://www.motherjo...es-mattis-know/

 

Introduction:

 

(Mother Jones) Less than 12 hours after the White House confirmed reports that President Donald Trump had dinner with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Pentagon’s highest-ranking official accused Russia of attempting to interfere in the midterm elections. 

 

At the Reagan National Defense Forum in California on Saturday, Defense Secretary James Mattis called Putin “a slow learner” who “tried again to muck around in our elections.” Without offering details, Mattis added that the Russian autocrat had continued “to try to subvert democratic processes.”

 

The extraordinary allegation from a key member of Trump’s national security team was not immediately backed up by any public evidence or confirmed by other federal agencies. A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security declined to comment on the record about Mattis’ comments. Army Lt. Col. Michelle L. Baldanza, a Pentagon spokesperson, said in an email, “I don’t have anything to add to the secretary’s remarks.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#598
caltrek

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Russian Cybersecurity Firm Fails to Topple Agency-Wide Ban

 

https://www.courthou...gency-wide-ban/

 

Introduction:

 

(Courthouse News) WASHINGTON – The D.C. Circuit endorsed a ban Friday that was adopted in response to Kremlin subterfuge, finding nothing unduly punitive about keeping Russian-made software out of U.S. government offices.

 

Based in Moscow, Kaspersky Lab counted the U.S. government as one of its clients until 2017 when officials here raised the possibility that the Kremlin could exploit the company to access U.S. federal computer systems for nefarious purposes.

 

After the Department of Homeland Security ordered agencies to start removing Kaspersky’s products from their computer systems, Congress formalized the directive in a November 2017 defense spending bill, and President Donald Trump signed the bill in December.

 

Kaspersky in turn filed suit, but a federal judge in Washington dismissed the company’s two cases with a pair of rulings on May 30.

 

Affirming that outcome on Friday, the D.C. Circuit ruled that the constitutional bar on so-called bills of attainder – legislation passed specifically to punish one person — was not applicable to Kaspersky’s case.

 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#599
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Putin: If US Develops Banned Missiles, So Will Russia

 

https://www.courthou...so-will-russia/

 

Introduction:

 

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday warned the United States that if it walks out of a key arms treaty and starts developing the type of missiles banned by it, Russia will do the same.

 

Putin’s remarks to Russian news agencies on Wednesday came a day after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced at a NATO meeting that Washington will suspend its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 60 days, citing Russian “cheating.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#600
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What the impending death of the INF teaches about future arms control agreements

 

https://thebulletin....rol-agreements/

 

Introduction:

 

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) In response to alleged Russian violations, the United States is poised to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, the INF bans the production, possession, and deployment of all nuclear and conventional ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. While the pros and cons of pulling out of the INF have been thoroughly debated, a subject that has received much less attention is what the impending death of the INF can teach us about future arms control agreements. Specifically, how can future treaties be designed to avoid the fate of the INF?

 

Limits rather than bans. It is important to remember that the INF doesn’t just put a ceiling on how many land-based intermediate-range missiles Russia and the United States are allowed to have, but actually prohibits both states from having a single one of these weapons. Besides eliminating an entire class of weapons, this approach has one major advantage: Verification is substantially easier when the mere existence of a weapons system, rather than a limit on the number of systems, constitutes a treaty violation. An agreement based on complete disarmament, however, is more restrictive than one based on caps. Especially for treaties that are of unlimited duration, like the INF, outlawing an entire class of weapons doesn’t give states much flexibility to cope with changing circumstances over time.

 

When the INF was signed, the Soviet Union and the United States were the only two great powers in the world. Today, the Soviet Union is no more, NATO is larger than it was in the 1980s and has expanded eastward, and China is a full-fledged great power. These changes have given both Russia and the United States security incentives to want at least a limited intermediate-range missile capability.

 

Russia’s immediate incentive is NATO. Russia’s short-range missiles would have a difficult time reaching critical NATO targets in western Europe and ballistic missile defense sites in eastern Europe, if they were deployed on the Russian mainland. Basing wouldn’t have been as much of an issue when the INF was signed in 1987 and Russia controlled much more territory in eastern Europe.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: United States, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Hillary Clinton, International diplomacy

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