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Your 2017 predictions


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#1
TheComrade

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Year 2016 is almost over & this is the right time to create the new thread, by analogy with Your 2016 Predictions. Today, this is interesting to read them, some predictions were surprisingly exact and accurate:

 

A serious Islamic terrorist attack occurs in the US.
Donald Trump wins the 2016 election.

ISIS wanes but remains.
Oil prices go back up to near but not quite the standard prices seen in the last 5 years.

 

...but the most of them (incl. my own post) weren't. So, why not try again?


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#2
Pisiu369

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Alternative Fur Deutschland wins German 2017 Election

French National Front wins French 2017 Election


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#3
As We Rise

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We all die 2017.


The reality? There are millions of normal people who are starting to LIKE the idea of fascism BECAUSE there are literal bolsheviks flooding the streets and attacking people. I swear to God, when the Left actually gets the storm they've been preaching about, you won't even see it on the news. The population will just shrink from 330 million to 230 million overnight and nobody will ever speak of it again.


#4
Yuli Ban

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I created a proto-thread on my predictions here: http://www.kurzweila...017-predictions

 

It's where the winds are blowing as to what my "official" 2017 prediction list will be.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
superexistence

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Very interesting theories Yuli Ban...., here's hoping you're on the money.
What particularly grabbed me was this sections if you wouldn't mind expanding

on it.

From what you're saying it sounds like the most optimistic AI developer on the planet

Ben Goertzel will be correct (who currently believes we are 5-8 years away from AGI)

 

 

There will be a massive breakthrough in AI some time early in the year, a breakthrough so great that even MysticMonkeyGuru and Miss Kaioshin will be impressed (though they'll still try to find ways to disparage it). It'll most likely involve backpropagation and progressive neural networks, allowing fully unsupervised general learning across multiple fields. This will lead to several commentators and even a few former skeptics beginning to claim that Kurzweil's prediction for human-level AI in 2029 to have been far, far too conservative. Kurzweil will likely stick to the date, but will admit that things are progressing "faster than expected"



#6
Trexrider32

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The Vulcion arrive, but by another name.

My powers awaken, but not in a way I expect.

Its slumber ends; I congratulate those who stay sane.

We see the trivial unimportance of whomever we elect.


" Those who dream by day are cognizant of many things which escape those who only dream by night." -- Edgar Allan Poe


#7
nomad

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Deportation of Mexican National illegal aliens from the US increases significantly. Not much beyond planning happens with increasing US-Mexico border walls and fences.

Many medium-sized farms are bought out and absorbed by industrial farm operations.

Industrial farm operations see a small but real increase in automation countrywide.

Fast food restaurants see an increase in automation in Blue States with higher minimum wages.

The_Donald subreddit is banned.

Political correctness increases in power on the internet but decreases in power in meatspace.

Massive rash of vandalism supposed hate crimes occurs in US in the first 3-6 months after the inauguration. Most remain unsolved. Multiple are found to be false flags.

European countries and US increasingly limit refugees from Syria.

ISIS remains only as an insurgency by the end of 2017.

Drought in the Western US States continues. One or more people are charged with crimes related to illegally obtaining water protest by committing suicide or having a standoff with police.

More police are murdered in 2017 than in 2016.

Suicide rates in the US increase in 2017. This will primarily affect teenagers and young adults.

Monetarily motivated crime in the US increases.

California passes ban on semi-automatic rifles and shotguns.

Red States increase cross-recognition of Carry Concealed Permits and the passage of Castle Doctrine and Stand Your Ground laws.

Mexico amends its constitution to expand gun rights for transportation workers and inside businesses.

The Pink Pistols group sees a resurgence.

Trump does nothing to diminish or increase LGB rights. Bathroom Bills limiting transgender people's bathroom choices, however, will pop up all over in Red States.

Trump trade renegotiations are slow going, no large impacts in the first year.

Unemployment in the US falls slightly.

Unemployment in Canada increases with new immigrant worker policy changes.

Putin takes a major expanionist action. UN response is all bark, no bite. Trump's reply amounts to a justification of the action.

2 or more Islamic terrorist attacks in Europe. At least one carried out by a "refugee."

Another Islamic terrorist attack in the US for 2017.

Donald Trump will not outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood in the US in 2017.

New data on Global Warming shows the threat to be more uncertain in its severity. Donald Trump will acknowledge that it is real but will downplay the severity.

Mexico's medical marajuana rollout a success, calls for full legalization increase.

Oil prices fluctuate but end higher at the end of the year. Gas prices rise.

The first deaths due to negligent behavior by VR addicts will be seen.

Repealing Obamacare will be pushed off to 2018 or 2019.

Drug testing for some welfare benefits in some states will be passed in bills but not slated to actually start until 2018 or 2019.

Release date of new season of Sword Art Online is announced.


*EDIT - Changed election to inauguration. That word...
** EDIT - Some of my predictions didn't paste. Whoops.


Edited by nomad, 24 December 2016 - 10:54 PM.

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#8
TranscendingGod

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Tesla attains a 50 billion market cap.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#9
MarcZ

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"Political correctness increases in power on the internet but decreases in power in meatspace."

 

- Don't agree it will simply decrease in power as these people become more and more unreasonable. Also the more terrorist attacks the less politically correct people will become. 


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#10
Recyvuym

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1) Global recession.

 

2) Dissolution of the European Union.

 

3) Beginning of the recovery of the Russian economy.

 

4) ISIS and Boko Haram rebrand themselves as borderless insurrectionist forces.

 

5) First signs of major civil unrest to come throughout the US and Europe.

 

6) General global swing towards nationalism and radicalism.


I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#11
Jakob

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The EU is not going to dissolve tomorrow. The UK hasn't even left yet, and I can't see many other countries leaving in just a single year. Maybe one, but that alone isn't going to be the death knell for the EU. Though if Frexit succeeds, then, yes, it's only a matter of time. But that doesn't preclude it showing up again someday in another form.



#12
Sciencerocks

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Alternative Fur Deutschland wins German 2017 Election

French National Front wins French 2017 Election

 

I also feel this is likely...The far right  continues its rise...Ugly. Hitler would be proud.



#13
Sciencerocks

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1. WE will have a trade war with China and Mexico

2. WE will rise tariffs 10-30% on those nations

3. Our stock market will end up around 1,500 points lower for the year.

4. Gas will go up to $3 per gallon by this this time next year.

5. The republicans will throw millions of people off of ssd and food stamps.

6. Most jobs that come back this year will be automated.

7. Donald Trump will kill off wind power by recending its legal protection against eagle deaths.

8. Spacex will be defunded of all federal dollars and drop the idea of going to mars.

9. We will pull out of the paris agreement

10. We will tell iran that their deal is over and threaten war.

11. Trump will end the clean energy plan.

12. Trump through Rex will remove sanctions against Russia.



#14
ninja9351

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So I'm just going to list my opinions on the predictions that were made by the official timeline.

 

2017-2025 — Worsening crisis in Yemen

Unfortunately I'm not very familiar with world economics but based off what I've been seeing this looks to be true

 

2017 —

China establishes the largest megacity in the world

100% Chance of this happening
The remaining JFK files are released

100% Chance of this happening
Total solar eclipse in the US

If this doesn't happen then either the moon, sun, or Earth, or the USA has been destroyed.  Trump is bad, but not destroy the US in a year bad.
China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon

80% chance of this happening.  The rocket or device used to return the samples could fail.
The first test flight of NASA's Space Launch System

80% chance for the same reasons as above
The first manned flight of the Dream Chaser

75% chance of this happening.  I give this a lower chance since it isn't through the government.
Launch of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

80% chance for the same reasons as above

The Cheops satellite is deployed to study exoplanets

80% chance for the same reasons as above
Sales of electric and hybrid trucks reach 100,000 annually

90% chance of this happening.  Unless Trump is able to discredit electric cars entirly this won't happen.  Even he does sway the American public away from electric vehicles that prediction is about global sales.
10 nanometre chips enter mass production

95% chance of this happening.  I don't see any reasons why this would not happen.  Crazy things can always happen so I'm hesitant to give it 100%.
Web-connected video devices exceed the global population

100% of this.  The trends don't lie and I don't see any likely situation that could stop this.
Electronic paper is seeing widespread use

40% chance.  I'm not terribly familiar with this which is why I gave it that low percentage.  If it was on it's way into "widespread use" I probably would have heard about it elsewhere.  It may see some usage but as far as "widespread use" is concerned I think not.
Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care

65% chance.  While this will probalby start to see use I don't see it transforming dental care untill 2018.
The first human head transplant

90% on the attempt, ?% at the sucess.  I'm also not terribly familiar with anatomy so I'm not sure if this will work or not but I'm fairlyl sure an attempt will be made.
Wireless, implantable devices that monitor a range of health conditions in real time

100% chance they will be showcased, 5% chance they will see use.  While I expect these things to be shown off next year they won't be affordable, feasible, or terribly useful yet.  By 2018 people will start to see the uses of them and by 2019 they will enter the market.  By 2021 the upper class of America will have them and by 2025 most Americans outside of powerty will have some kind of implant depending on their health.

The world's first HIV vaccine is commercially available

99% chance.  While I think it will be availible it probably won't be completly effective.  Later itterations will prove cheaper and superior.  This will probably not be a mandatory vaccine until the 2020's.
A new treatment for prostate cancer

80% chance.  I don't know much about this one but it sees effective and possible, but there is always a slight ammount of uncertanty with everything.
BioCassava Plus receives regulatory approval

90% chance.  This seems highly possible but people that approve things can be stupid sometimes.

The world's largest mud volcano stops erupting

I honestly don't think anyone knows this one.

 

Feel free to discuss my theories and correct mine if need be.  I'm always up for learning new things.


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#15
Maximus

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1. Crisis in the South China Sea: Trump increases US presence in the SCS, and announces a "stand your ground" policy. Combined with increased Chinese assertiveness, the risk of a repeat of the drone incident is very high; this time, the risk of escalation is much higher.

 

2. Global economy enters recession: There's a full blown banking crisis underway in the Eurozone, the EU's leading economy has practically ground to a halt, and China's economy is slowing down. Trump's planned protectionist policies ignite this noxious mix and drag the world economy back into recession. 

 

3. Oil prices fail to recover: despite the OPEC and non-OPEC agreements, oil prices fail to return to over $100/barrel. They will be stuck between $50-$60.

 

4. Marine Le Pen loses French election: the trend has overwhelmingly been in favour of anti-establishment candidates, but French mainstream politics have found a hope in Francois Fillon. This rightward shift in mainstream politics pushes radicals like Le Pen out of the spotlight. Besides, the Russian bank funding her run just failed. Mainstream European politics will now be significantly more "conservative". Border control will be re-established, and governments will take a hardline stance towards radical Islamists. This will help avert radicalization of European politics, and delay the dissolution of the EU until after 2017.

 

5. The world is becoming an armed camp: Bye-bye "reset with Russia". Major powers are investing more and more in defence spending, and more worryingly, on things like nuclear weaponry. The more the US invests in anti-missile technology, the more Russia and China will invest in countering this threat. 

 

6. Major terror attack in a European city: Berlin, London, Paris, and Brussels are all among the likely targets. As ISIS loses its territory, thousands of unidentified foreign fighters return to Europe. Disconnected intelligence services, combined with open borders, and sheer number of fighters, mean that there is no hope of keeping track of all or even most of these returning fighters. 

 

7. Technology advances massively, but not visibly: huge discoveries continue to be made, and other trends continue, but not much changes in terms of visibility. The biggest tech news for most people will be something like the Iphone 8. The discoveries making news in 2017 will gradually become widespread over the next decade.


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#16
TheComrade

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^ ^ ^

 

Yes, i'm agree with big part of this. Another interesting event of 2017 (and beyond) will be the struggle between (figuratively speaking) two main cliques of US ruling class. Hillary and those behind her back just lost the important battle, but the war is still far from over. This is very difficult to predict the results and outcome of this war.



#17
nomad

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So I'm just going to list my opinions on the predictions that were made by the official timeline.

 


Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care

65% chance.  While this will probalby start to see use I don't see it transforming dental care untill 2018.

 

Talked about this with dental students at UNLV Dental students getting ready to graduate in 2017. Unfortunately they hadn't even heard of it much less been trained on it. These folks are on the cutting edge so my estimate would be maybe 2020, but unlikely before.


Cats.


#18
Sciencerocks

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So I'm just going to list my opinions on the predictions that were made by the official timeline.

 


Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care

65% chance.  While this will probalby start to see use I don't see it transforming dental care untill 2018.

 

Talked about this with dental students at UNLV Dental students getting ready to graduate in 2017. Unfortunately they hadn't even heard of it much less been trained on it. These folks are on the cutting edge so my estimate would be maybe 2020, but unlikely before.

 

 

Is there any new news on this or is this just going to fade into the back ground?



#19
nomad

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So I'm just going to list my opinions on the predictions that were made by the official timeline.

 


Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care

65% chance.  While this will probalby start to see use I don't see it transforming dental care untill 2018.

 

Talked about this with dental students at UNLV Dental students getting ready to graduate in 2017. Unfortunately they hadn't even heard of it much less been trained on it. These folks are on the cutting edge so my estimate would be maybe 2020, but unlikely before.

 

 

Is there any new news on this or is this just going to fade into the back ground?

 

Did some more research. Ugh. A ton of stories in 2014, or rather reposts of the same story.

They appear to had been crowdfunding back in 2015. http://www.reminova....h-press-release

That is over. https://reminova.sharein.com/closed

They do have a Twitter feed https://twitter.com/ReminovaLtd with sparse posts.

This all makes me very pessimistic. One would think that if the technology had potential that they'd have multi-millionaire investors lining up at the door to get in on the ground floor of this thing at some point in the past year, right? Or maybe they don't need more funding and are now just researching or something?
How disappointing. Didn't find any place that actually offers the treatment or a recent update on their research.


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#20
Trexrider32

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The Vulcion arrive, but by another name.

My powers awaken, but not in a way I expect.

Its slumber ends; I congratulate those who stay sane.

We see the trivial unimportance of whomever we elect.

 

Sooo....No one liked my poem? It actually describes more than you think.


" Those who dream by day are cognizant of many things which escape those who only dream by night." -- Edgar Allan Poe





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