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A Google Exec Just Claimed AGI Will Happen by 2029

Singularity 2029 Kurzweil

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#1
Time_Traveller

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16 March 2017

 

Ray Kurzweil, Google's Director of Engineering, is a well-known futurist with a high-hitting track record for accurate predictions. Of his 147 predictions since the 1990s, Kurzweil claims an 86 percent accuracy rate.

Earlier this week, at the SXSW Conference in Austin, Texas, Kurzweil made yet another prediction: the technological singularity will happen sometime in the next 12 years.

"By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence," Kurzweil said in an interview with SXSW.

 

http://www.scienceal...-happen-by-2029

 

(Move if needed)


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#2
Yuli Ban

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"A Google Exec"

 

Oh let me guess, it's Ray Kurz—

It's Ray Kurzweil. How did I know?


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
wjfox

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This is clickbait. He didn't say the Singularity will happen in 12 years. He said computers will have human-level intelligence. That isn't the same as a "Singularity", which he's repeatedly forecast for 2045.
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#4
Yuli Ban

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I believe it needs to be repeated: the advent of artificial general intelligence or even artificial superintelligence is not the Singularity. It's the point at which society is changing so quickly that no unaugmented mind can comprehend it. Runaway intelligence amplification, in other words. ASI is just one way of bringing it about. 

 

It's perfectly fine to say we're currently experiencing a "soft take-off" right now in 2017, despite the fact we don't have ASI, all because of how quickly technology is advancing. But that doesn't mean it's reached a point where no one can handle it.


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#5
ninja9351

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Technically, though, don't computers already have 10 times more FLOPS than the human equivalent of FLOPS?  Of course, they are only as intelligent as cockroaches, but they still have more raw computing power than humans.


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#6
Time_Traveller

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This is clickbait. He didn't say the Singularity will happen in 12 years. He said computers will have human-level intelligence. That isn't the same as a "Singularity", which he's repeatedly forecast for 2045.

 

Feel free to change the title.


“One, remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Two, never give up work. Work gives you meaning and purpose and life is empty without it. Three, if you are lucky enough to find love, remember it is there and don't throw it away.”

 

Stephen Hawking


#7
Yuli Ban

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Technically, though, don't computers already have 10 times more FLOPS than the human equivalent of FLOPS?  Of course, they are only as intelligent as cockroaches, but they still have more raw computing power than humans.

They are only as intelligent as cockroaches not because computers aren't powerful enough, but because neural networks aren't good enough. Theoretically, one could put AGI on any desktop you can buy right now— but only if we had proper algorithms. That's one reason why DeepMind's breakthrough is so important. 


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#8
Jakob

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I believe it needs to be repeated: the advent of artificial general intelligence or even artificial superintelligence is not the Singularity. It's the point at which society is changing so quickly that no unaugmented mind can comprehend it.

If that's how you wanna define it, then we hit the singularity circa 1829, with the death of Thomas Young--reportedly "the last man who knew everything". Since then, no single human has fully understood all branches of human science.



#9
Alislaws

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We can still make predictions about where the future is going and make a reasonable effort at preparing for it (although often we don't do either of those things). 

 

I think the point where you've hit the singularity is when you have literally no idea what technology will be capable of next year. 

 

So when a government says: "whats going to be happening a year from now?" the only answer anyone can give them is "No idea too much is changing too quickly, we have some guesses, but we've been wrong a lot recently"

 

Sites like future timeline will be wrong on most of their predictions etc. 







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Singularity, 2029, Kurzweil

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