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France Watch Thread

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#1
Time_Traveller

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France centre-right primary: Ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy knocked out

20 November 2016

 

French ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy has been knocked out of a primary to choose the presidential candidate of the centre-right Republican party.

Admitting defeat, Mr Sarkozy endorsed Francois Fillon, a moderate who finished first in Sunday's first round, according to near-complete results.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...europe-38047046


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#2
Recyvuym

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I swear, when Le Pen smiles, you can see her skull plainly beneath her skin.

So. She's definitely going to win. Nobody's surprised. The Syrian refugees just cannot catch a fucking break.
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#3
Cody930

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I swear, when Le Pen smiles, you can see her skull plainly beneath her skin.

So. She's definitely going to win. Nobody's surprised. The Syrian refugees just cannot catch a fucking break.

 

That issue plus the terrorist attacks are pretty much guaranteeing her the presidency.


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#4
MarcZ

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Breaking: Francois Fillon likely to trounce Juppe for nomination of centre-right. 

 

Will be the likely person to face Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election.

 

Appears we are about to have a hard-right vs alt-right election. The left has totally destroyed itself in this country and has practically no legitimacy left. Fillon has said he would like to repeal same-sex marriage, I don't even think that is on Le Pen's agenda.

 

https://www.theguard...eat-alain-juppe



#5
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Fillon has officially won the nomination. This will likely be Fillon vs. Le Pen. 

 

Also for everyone thinking Brexit or Trump was big, it is this election which is going to be the REAL shitshow.

 

Edit: Italian referendum is nothing compared to what will happen if Le Pen wins this one. 



#6
tierbook

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Fillon has officially won the nomination. This will likely be Fillon vs. Le Pen. 

 

Also for everyone thinking Brexit or Trump was big, it is this election which is going to be the REAL shitshow.

The election is in 2017 right? Pity we couldn't have this to cap the year off.



#7
caltrek

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Will Marine Le Pen Become France’s Next President?

 

http://prospect.org/article/will-marine-le-pen-become-france%E2%80%99s-next-president

 

Extract:

 

Next spring’s French presidential contest is shaping up as a battle between the right and the far right. Will a majority coalesce around the right-wing candidate to keep the far right out of power as in 2002? Will a viable challenger emerge on the left? Don’t bet on it. The world has changed, and so has the Front National.

 

Yesterday, François Fillon won the primary of the French Republican Party (Les Républicains, known as LR). …Fillon…eliminated his lone remaining rival, Alain Juppé, by a margin of 2-1. How does this stunning victory affect the handicapping of next spring’s presidential election? The short…answer is that it makes the election of the Front National’s Marine Le Pen more likely.

 

…In order to defeat Marine Le Pen, Fillon will need to persuade leftish voters to overcome their reluctance to vote for a hard-right conservative in order to prevent the candidate of the extreme right from obtaining a majority. 

 

Claude Bartolone, the president of the National Assembly, has been listening to different voices, however: most notably, the voice of the president himself …in a book of astonishingly candid presidential indiscretions, which revealed that Hollande saw his friend of 40 years as a man lacking “the stature” and “charisma” to become prime minister. …Bartolone recently called for a broad primary of the entire left and center, including not only his own Socialist Party but also the Greens, the parties of the far left, and anyone else who can be persuaded to join a “popular front” aimed at preventing both Fillon and Le Pen from reaching the Elysée.

 

The problem is that several efforts to organize such a popular front had already failed. Economist Thomas Piketty tried to launch a movement last January, but it went nowhere. Then Socialist Party chief Jean-Christophe Cambadélis concocted the …Belle Alliance Populaire.  Among the numerous candidates who have already thrown their hats into this primary ring are two former ministers, Arnaud Montebourg and Benoît Hamon. Prime Minister Manuel Valls might also get in if Hollande decides not to run—and there are signs that Valls might go for it even if Hollande does run.

ap16314491651444.jpg?itok=IG6pVs7C

French far-right leader Marine le Pen makes a statement on the presidential election in the United States on November 9, 2016, in Nanterre, outside Paris. 

AP Photo/Christophe Ena


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#8
caltrek

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Jean-Marie Le Pen Hopes to be Europe's Donald Trump

 

http://www.spiegel.d...-a-1122077.html

 

Introduction:

 

It is the seventh day after Donald Trump's triumph, an election upset that set off a political earthquake around the world, and time for a visit with those far away from Washington who think like him. Members of France's Front National (FN) are meeting at the five-star Hotel Napoléon in Paris, not far from the Champs-Élysées.

 

The topics of discussion this evening include disadvantaged youth in the outer districts of the capital, known as the banlieues, and radical Islamists who are recruiting new members there. The mood is explosive in the banlieues, warns the speaker, a resolute blonde woman, who goes on to say it is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any moment. "I am the only one who can defuse this bomb," she adds.

 

Her words are met with cheers and applause. Marine Le Pen has struck the right note, once again. Here, in the stuffy conference room at the Hotel Napoléon, people want to hear what they have long believed: That Islam constitutes a threat and that France's very future is on the line. Marine, the daughter of Front National co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, has been the head of her party for almost six years.

 

'We Want To Destroy this EU'

 

The Frenchwoman will soon enter the presidential election campaign under the slogan "Marine 2017." Within a few years, she has managed to garner the support of like-minded individuals, and not just in her native France. Le Pen also chairs the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group in the European Parliament. ENF brings together elected representatives from nine countries, people who share an unmistakable common goal. "We want to destroy this EU," says Le Pen.  

 

Less than two weeks after the election of the new US president, Europe's anti-establishment parties are feeling the wind in their sails. "A Trump victory was considered unthinkable," says Le Pen, who sent the billionaire her euphoric congratulatory message on Twitter on the night of the election. "Our life has changed," 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#9
MarcZ

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Jean-Marie Le Pen Hopes to be Europe's Donald Trump

 

http://www.spiegel.d...-a-1122077.html

 

Introduction:

 

It is the seventh day after Donald Trump's triumph, an election upset that set off a political earthquake around the world, and time for a visit with those far away from Washington who think like him. Members of France's Front National (FN) are meeting at the five-star Hotel Napoléon in Paris, not far from the Champs-Élysées.

 

The topics of discussion this evening include disadvantaged youth in the outer districts of the capital, known as the banlieues, and radical Islamists who are recruiting new members there. The mood is explosive in the banlieues, warns the speaker, a resolute blonde woman, who goes on to say it is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any moment. "I am the only one who can defuse this bomb," she adds.

 

 

 

Her words are met with cheers and applause. Marine Le Pen has struck the right note, once again. Here, in the stuffy conference room at the Hotel Napoléon, people want to hear what they have long believed: That Islam constitutes a threat and that France's very future is on the line. Marine, the daughter of Front National co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, has been the head of her party for almost six years.

 

 

'We Want To Destroy this EU'

 

 

The Frenchwoman will soon enter the presidential election campaign under the slogan "Marine 2017." Within a few years, she has managed to garner the support of like-minded individuals, and not just in her native France. Le Pen also chairs the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group in the European Parliament. ENF brings together elected representatives from nine countries, people who share an unmistakable common goal. "We want to destroy this EU," says Le Pen.  

 

Less than two weeks after the election of the new US president, Europe's anti-establishment parties are feeling the wind in their sails. "A Trump victory was considered unthinkable," says Le Pen, who sent the billionaire her euphoric congratulatory message on Twitter on the night of the election. "Our life has changed," 

 

 

Is this supposed to say Marine, as Jean-Marie is not running?



#10
MarcZ

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Breaking: Francois Hollande will not run for second term

 

Most unpopular president in French history, even more unpopular than G.W.B. was when he left office in America.

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-38173350


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#11
Recyvuym

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So, how long after she's elected do we think it will take for the EU to officially disintegrate? A month?

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#12
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I thought France was supposed to be a stronghold for liberalism, socialism, hell the left in general.



#13
Maximus

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I thought France was supposed to be a stronghold for liberalism, socialism, hell the left in general.

 

Decades of stagnating wages,  fear of terrorism, and a general apathy towards democracy is slowly eroding liberalism in the West. I'm afraid that this is just the beginning.


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#14
MarcZ

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So, how long after she's elected do we think it will take for the EU to officially disintegrate? A month?

 

She will have to hold a referendum so probably several months before she gets the actual mandate to destroy the E.U. and if she wins that referendum she also has to invoke article 50 which is 24 months so at least 3 years before she brings it down, provided the entirety of the E.U. doesn't decide to call it quits before then. 



#15
tierbook

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So, how long after she's elected do we think it will take for the EU to officially disintegrate? A month?

 

She will have to hold a referendum so probably several months before she gets the actual mandate to destroy the E.U. and if she wins that referendum she also has to invoke article 50 which is 24 months so at least 3 years before she brings it down, provided the entirety of the E.U. doesn't decide to call it quits before then. 

 

If France left I don't see many staying..... Depending on how Italy votes for it's bank referendum they could already be gone by then or at least on the way out.



#16
caltrek

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French Left Seeks Candidate After Hollande Bows Out

 

https://www.yahoo.co...717.html?ref=gs

 

Extract:

 

His (Holland's) term has been marked by U-turns on major policies, terror attacks, a sickly economy and embarrassing revelations about his private life.

 

…France has faced three major Islamist-inspired terror attacks -- firstly against Charlie Hebdo magazine in January 2015, then in Paris the following November and in Nice in July.

On economics, Hollande started with a leftist programme that included a wealth super-tax of 75 percent on top-earners but he shifted course mid-way through his term to embrace pro-business reforms.

 

…In January 2014, celebrity magazine Closer published pictures of him arriving on a scooter at an apartment near his official residence for secret trysts with a French actress, Julie Gayet.

 

The revelations led to the break-up of Hollande's relationship with partner Valerie Trierweiler who went on to write an eviscerating book which claimed the president mocked poor people as "the toothless".

Part-PAR-Par7980735-1-1-0.jpg

French President Francois Hollande has some of the lowest approval ratings for a French president since World War II

(AFP Photo/FRED DUFOUR)


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#17
lain

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Nope, I don't agree with those who claim that after brexit and trump, marine le pen's victory is a pretty much a given.

And the reason why is rather simple: both brexit and the US election were binary decisions, the french election is not. 

In the brexit referendum, you either voted to remain or to leave: tertium non datur.

In the US election, you either voted for the establishment candidate or for "outsider": tertium non datur.

But in the french politics, fillon already represents a break with the status quo. sure, marine le pen would be an even more radical break, but even so the point is that their election will not be a dichotomy between establishment and contrarian, but rather a presidential race between two different flavor of anti-establishment politics: so my guess is that all the models used to predict the outcome of brexit and the victory of trump will not be really useful here



#18
MarcZ

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Nope, I don't agree with those who claim that after brexit and trump, marine le pen's victory is a pretty much a given.

And the reason why is rather simple: both brexit and the US election were binary decisions, the french election is not. 

In the brexit referendum, you either voted to remain or to leave: tertium non datur.

In the US election, you either voted for the establishment candidate or for "outsider": tertium non datur.

But in the french politics, fillon already represents a break with the status quo. sure, marine le pen would be an even more radical break, but even so the point is that their election will not be a dichotomy between establishment and contrarian, but rather a presidential race between two different flavor of anti-establishment politics: so my guess is that all the models used to predict the outcome of brexit and the victory of trump will not be really useful here

 

Possible, however on the case of EU membership the decision is fairly binary. Fillon supports the EU and Le Pen does not. 



#19
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Possible, however on the case of EU membership the decision is fairly binary. Fillon supports the EU and Le Pen does not. 

 

Oh my.


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#20
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How are the stances on refugees, globalism, and authoritarianism in general? The EU opposition is all interesting ans such but some of us were alive when the EU was much smaller and had less power behind it. It's not hard to imagine a world that functions without an EU. Granted the coming global recession/depression will strain attempts to negotiate trade and relations, but that's more a mess and struggle. In my mind the thing to watch for would be nationalistic anti-globalisation authoritarians closing borders and throwing out refugees.

 

That's how you get wars.


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