Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

France Watch Thread

France French EU Europe West Europe

  • Please log in to reply
347 replies to this topic

#21
tierbook

tierbook

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,264 posts
  • LocationCharleston sc

Assuming she wins, what are the chances we see the EU break up before 2020? In the US Trump doing adequate while watching the EU cannibalize itself will likely give Trump another 4 years.



#22
Recyvuym

Recyvuym

    Apophis 2036

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 999 posts
  • LocationDie Sonne

Actually at this stage, I'm pretty sure we're going to see the EU cease to exist in 2017. It probably won't be a formal dissolution. One month it'll be there. The next it won't. No referendums necessary.


  • As We Rise likes this

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#23
lain

lain

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 62 posts

 

Nope, I don't agree with those who claim that after brexit and trump, marine le pen's victory is a pretty much a given.

And the reason why is rather simple: both brexit and the US election were binary decisions, the french election is not. 

In the brexit referendum, you either voted to remain or to leave: tertium non datur.

In the US election, you either voted for the establishment candidate or for "outsider": tertium non datur.

But in the french politics, fillon already represents a break with the status quo. sure, marine le pen would be an even more radical break, but even so the point is that their election will not be a dichotomy between establishment and contrarian, but rather a presidential race between two different flavor of anti-establishment politics: so my guess is that all the models used to predict the outcome of brexit and the victory of trump will not be really useful here

 

Possible, however on the case of EU membership the decision is fairly binary. Fillon supports the EU and Le Pen does not. 

 

 

Fair point, euroscepticism is on the rise in France too and this could be a key factor in favor of Le Pen, but last time I checked the polls suggested that an hypothetical frexit would fail - but of course one of the things that 2016 taught us is that we better take the polls with a grain of salt, to say the very least-



#24
kjaggard

kjaggard

    Artificer

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,980 posts
  • Locationwhere fanciful imaginings and hard won knowledge meet to genesis the future.

well that and opinions change when recessions start and the group in charge of a shared economy between multiple nations tells each individual nation they can't do things they think would relieve the strain , 'beacause of how it would effect the others in our union.' The response tends to be, "they can't dictate to us how we manage our own country!" and "fine then we'll leave the union and take care of our situation ourselves."

 

centralized systems are one size fits all,  which is to say in an effort to maximize the number of those it serves, it sacrifices the quality of it's service to the needs of any subset of the group. To those subsets, they mainly see that their concerns are important to them all, but a minority interest in the greater union. The easy solution is to say the union no longer works for us, and leave.


  • eacao likes this
Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
Listen to clouds and mountains, children and sages. Act bravely, think boldly.
Await occasions, never make haste. Find wonder and awe, by experiencing the everyday.

#25
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,538 posts

Cazeneuve Named French PM as Valls Aims for President

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bernard-cazeneuve-named-french-pm-valls-quits-092810483.html?ref=gs

 

Extract:

 

Paris (AFP) - French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve was named the country's new prime minister on Tuesday after Manuel Valls resigned to seek the Socialist nomination in next year's presidential election.

 

…Valls, a divisive figure, threw his hat in the ring on Monday, after Hollande said last week he would bow out after a single troubled term.

 

Appealing to the left to unite behind him, Valls vowed to take the fight to election frontrunner, conservative Republicans candidate Francois Fillon, as well as far-right National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen.

 

"We're told that Francois Fillon is the next president of the Republic. Nothing is set in stone," he declared.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#26
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,538 posts

Le Pen Struggling to Fund French Race as Russian Bank Fails

 

https://www.bloomber...an-backer-fails

 

Introduction:

 

National Front leader Marine Le Pen is struggling to raise the 20 million euros ($21 million) she needs to fund French presidential and legislative campaigns in 2017 after the party’s Russian lender failed, the party treasurer said.

 

The Central Bank of Russia revoked the license of the National Front’s Moscow-based lender First Czech Russian Bank OOO in July and the party has still to find another backer, according to treasurer Wallerand de Saint Just. Saint Just said he’s seeking international financiers in countries including Russia because French banks have refused to fund his party.

 

 “The loss of the FCRB was a hard blow for us,” Saint Just said in a telephone interview. “The Russia loan was a stable resource. Now we are still searching for loans.”

 

…Le Pen is running second in the race to become France’s next president and is openly supportive of Putin’s military operations in Syria and his annexation of Crimea.

 

FCRB lent the National Front 9 million euros in 2014. In the same year, party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen’s political fund Cotelec received another 2 million-euro loan from a Russian-backed fund based in Cyprus, news website Mediapart reported. Saint Just said Cotelec helped fund the party’s 2015 regional campaign.

360x-1.jpg

 

Marine Le Pen at her campaign headquarters in Paris.

 

Photographer: Christophe Morin/Bloomberg

The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#27
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,271 posts
  • LocationCanada

Polls tighten between Fillon and Le Pen as Macron gains visibility.

 

http://www.reuters.c...SKBN14P1X4?il=0



#28
nomad

nomad

    The Darkness

  • Validating
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 548 posts

Polls tighten between Fillon and Le Pen as Macron gains visibility.

 

http://www.reuters.c...SKBN14P1X4?il=0

The poll was conducted among 995 people on Jan 3 and 4.

 

Sample size too small. Le Pen will "miraculously" pull ahead. Haute Energie!


  • eacao likes this

Cats.


#29
Time_Traveller

Time_Traveller

    Master of Time Travel

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,158 posts
  • LocationThe Sol System, 7 Billion C.E.
France's Socialists open battle for party's future

21 January 2017

 

France is choosing its left-wing presidential candidate this weekend, in what is seen as a crucial test for the direction - even the survival - of the governing Socialist Party.

Six men and one woman are competing for the nomination, with former Prime Minister Manuel Valls currently seen as the frontrunner. But will this contest go any way to uniting a Left bitterly divided by five years in power, and a president too unpopular to seek a second term?

With the tide out, the muddy inlet of Saint-Brieuc seems to sleep in the watery afternoon sun. Its shore deserted but for two Portuguese men picking their way along the sand, looking for worms.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...reporting-story


“One, remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Two, never give up work. Work gives you meaning and purpose and life is empty without it. Three, if you are lucky enough to find love, remember it is there and don't throw it away.”

 

Stephen Hawking


#30
Cody930

Cody930

    An Apple Pie from Scratch

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,516 posts
  • LocationNew Jersey, US

Benoît Hamon tops poll in first round of French Socialist primary race

 

January 22, 2017

 

Leftwing outsider to face pro-business rightwinger Manuel Valls in final vote to pick party’s presidential candidate

 

https://www.theguard...st-primary-race


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#31
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,271 posts
  • LocationCanada

Benoît Hamon tops poll in first round of French Socialist primary race

 

January 22, 2017

 

Leftwing outsider to face pro-business rightwinger Manuel Valls in final vote to pick party’s presidential candidate

 

https://www.theguard...st-primary-race

 

Doesn't matter which of these two wins the Socialist party will be annihilated in the first round. Polls show that under either of them they will get 5th place.


  • Sciencerocks likes this

#32
Jakob

Jakob

    Stable Genius

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,117 posts

Benoît Hamon tops poll in first round of French Socialist primary race

 

January 22, 2017

 

Leftwing outsider to face pro-business rightwinger Manuel Valls in final vote to pick party’s presidential candidate

 

https://www.theguard...st-primary-race

Serious question, asked in ignorance of French politics: how and why is a "pro-business rightwinger" running for a Socialist party? Or is "pro-business rightwinger" supposed to mean "anything but a hardcore communist"?



#33
Cody930

Cody930

    An Apple Pie from Scratch

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,516 posts
  • LocationNew Jersey, US

 

Benoît Hamon tops poll in first round of French Socialist primary race

 

January 22, 2017

 

Leftwing outsider to face pro-business rightwinger Manuel Valls in final vote to pick party’s presidential candidate

 

https://www.theguard...st-primary-race

Serious question, asked in ignorance of French politics: how and why is a "pro-business rightwinger" running for a Socialist party? Or is "pro-business rightwinger" supposed to mean "anything but a hardcore communist"?

 

Same way establishment democrats aren't really "left" in the US?


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#34
Jakob

Jakob

    Stable Genius

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,117 posts

 

 

Benoît Hamon tops poll in first round of French Socialist primary race

 

January 22, 2017

 

Leftwing outsider to face pro-business rightwinger Manuel Valls in final vote to pick party’s presidential candidate

 

https://www.theguard...st-primary-race

Serious question, asked in ignorance of French politics: how and why is a "pro-business rightwinger" running for a Socialist party? Or is "pro-business rightwinger" supposed to mean "anything but a hardcore communist"?

 

Same way establishment democrats aren't really "left" in the US?

 

The US democrats are a center-left party. "If they were in Europe..." is not relevant, because they're not.



#35
Sciencerocks

Sciencerocks

    Member

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,326 posts

 

 

 

Benoît Hamon tops poll in first round of French Socialist primary race

 

January 22, 2017

 

Leftwing outsider to face pro-business rightwinger Manuel Valls in final vote to pick party’s presidential candidate

 

https://www.theguard...st-primary-race

Serious question, asked in ignorance of French politics: how and why is a "pro-business rightwinger" running for a Socialist party? Or is "pro-business rightwinger" supposed to mean "anything but a hardcore communist"?

 

Same way establishment democrats aren't really "left" in the US?

 

The US democrats are a center-left party. "If they were in Europe..." is not relevant, because they're not.

 

 

Socially = center left

Economically = center right

 

At least Obama and Hillary were....Democrats allow the rich to cheat, outsource and allow them to get around our anti-trust laws. That my friend isn't left anything....

 

On the other hand there are people within the party that are more left.



#36
Cody930

Cody930

    An Apple Pie from Scratch

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,516 posts
  • LocationNew Jersey, US

The US democrats are a center-left party. "If they were in Europe..." is not relevant, because they're not.

 

Democrats are effectively a center/center-right party at this point. Pretty much capitalists with dabbling of social liberalism here and there. While republicans want straight free markets, dems just want a technocratic way of managing the market.


"Since we first emerged, a few million years ago in East Africa, we have meandered our way around the planet. There are now people on every continent and the remotest islands, from pole to pole, from Mount Everest to the Dead Sea, on the ocean bottoms and even, occasionally, in residence 200 miles up - humans, like the gods of old, living in the sky."


#37
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,538 posts

The French Ponder 'Joie de Vivre' in a Work-free Future

 

 

https://www.yahoo.co...043.html?ref=gs

 

Introduction:

 

Paris (AFP) - What role will work play in our future lives populated with robots and driverless vehicles? As France prepares to elect a new president, it is wrangling with bigger issues than simple election manifestos.

 

The catalyst for the soul-searching has been a proposal from leading Socialist party candidate Benoit Hamon to adopt a universal basic income -- a state handout of around 750 euros ($805) a month, made to everyone.

 

"I expect that the digital revolution is going to make work increasingly rare... and we need to prepare for that," Hamon says, underlining how advances in the welfare system have been criticised in the past.

 

That the idea has taken hold in France, which has a minimum working week of 35 hours and a strong attachment to enjoying the pleasures of life, will likely not surprise cynics.

e5eb2d3f312998ec6d3b98b8b25575ebc02bbb32

 

Benoit Hamon, a frontrunner in upcoming Socialist primaries, is campaigning on a universal basic income

(AFP Photo/STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#38
Maximus

Maximus

    Spaceman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,799 posts
  • LocationCanada

Benoit Hamon to be Socialist candidate in French election

 

 

Benoit Hamon will be the French Socialist Party's candidate in the presidential elections in April, after winning a run-off vote on Sunday.

The ex-education minister comfortably beat Manuel Valls, a former prime minister, who conceded before the final tally was completed.
The Socialists are not expected to do well in the election.
Outgoing President Francois Hollande, a fellow Socialist, has a very low approval rating.
Conservative Francois Fillon, right-wing Marine Le Pen, and centrist Emmanuel Macron lead the polls.

 

Socialists won't stand a chance, but good for him.

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-38787061



#39
nomad

nomad

    The Darkness

  • Validating
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 548 posts
Le Pen kicks off campaign with promise of French freedom

 

By Ingrid Melander | LYON, France
 

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen kicked off her presidential campaign on Saturday with a promise to shield voters from globalization and make their country "free", hoping to profit from political turmoil to score a Donald Trump-style upset.

 

Opinion polls see the 48-year old daughter of National Front (FN) founder Jean-Marie Le Pen topping the first round on April 23 but then losing the May 7 run-off to a mainstream candidate.

 

But in the most unpredictable election race France has known in decades, the FN hopes the scandal hitting conservative candidate Francois Fillon and the rise of populism across the West will help convince voters to back Le Pen.

 


Cats.


#40
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,538 posts

Judicial Pressure Builds on France's Fillon as Vote Looms

 

https://www.yahoo.co...830.html?ref=gs

 

 

 

Paris (AFP) - French conservative Francois Fillon suffered a new blow to his ailing presidential campaign Thursday when prosecutors said they would not drop a probe into an expenses scandal.

 

"The many elements already gathered do not point to throwing out the investigation," prosecutor Eliane Houlette said in a statement.

 

Revelations that Fillon, 62, put his wife Penelope and two of their children on the public payroll have dented his support and boosted prospects for upstart rival Emmanuel Macron ahead of the two-stage vote starting April 23.

 

Macron has overtaken Fillon in opinion polls, with 39 percent of those surveyed recently by Ipsos giving him a favourable opinion.

 

Also riding high is far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, tipped to get past the first-round vote on April 23 but expected to lose to her opponent in the May 7 runoff.

cf873f93fb04cc85bd825d74c3ac3517a1b84fcb

 

Revelations that French Les Republicains party's presidential candidate, Francois Fillon put his wife Penelope and two of their children on the public payroll have dented his support

(AFP Photo/FRANCOIS NASCIMBENI)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: France, French, EU, Europe, West Europe

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users