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France Watch Thread

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#41
Yuli Ban

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Le Pen Gains in French Polls as Security Concerns Win Voters

Marine Le Pen gained ground on her rivals for the French election as she benefits from concerns about security while other candidates trained their fire on independent front-runner Emmanuel Macron.
 
Monday’s daily OpinionWay poll showed that first-round support for anti-euro candidate Le Pen rose 1 percentage point to 27 percent, with Macron and Republican Francois Fillon unchanged at 20 percent each. While no surveys so far have shown Le Pen even close to a victory in May’s run-off, she’s quickly narrowing the gap to her rivals. OpinionWay showed Macron would defeat Le Pen by 58 percent to 42 percent in the second round. His advantage has halved in less than two weeks.

Oh god, I hope she wins. That way, the EU will shatter, the Deutsche Bank will collapse, and we can finally get a second great depression started.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#42
Maximus

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Marine Le Pen's Front National headquarters raided by police

 

 

French police searched the headquarters of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National on Monday evening as part of an official investigation into “fake” jobs involving the misuse of European Union funds to pay for a bodyguard and an assistant in Paris.

 
Brussels investigators claim Le Pen paid her bodyguard, Thierry Légier, more than €41,500 (£35,350) between October and December 2011, by falsely claiming he was an EU parliamentary assistant. She is also accused of paying nearly €298,000 between December 2010 and 2016 to her France-based assistant Catherine Griset.
 
To qualify as a parliamentary assistant, the person needs to be physically working in one of the European parliament’s three offices in Brussels, Strasbourg or Luxembourg and be resident near that workplace.
 
The European anti-fraud office (Olaf) has insisted Le Pen, 48, a frontrunner in France’s presidential campaign, repay the money, a total of €340,000. She has refused and is currently having it deducted from her MEP’s salary.
Well, well, well. Fillon's gone, now it looks like the peoples' candidate is just another corrupt snob. How many times are voters going to fall for this shit? Of course, when it was Fillon, the investigation was justified; now that it's Le Pen, it's fake news/propaganda/unfair.
 


#43
caltrek

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Because sometimes the most important question is not "can this ever happen?" but "why is this question being asked?"

 

Petition calls on Obama to Run for President in France

 

http://www.msn.com/e...=ob-fb-enus-280

 

 

Introduction:

 

Amid a presidential campaign that has been marred by scandalconspiracy theories, and the spectre of a new far-right leader, disillusioned French voters have called for an outsider to join the race: Barack Obama.

 

petition launched on Monday calls on the former US president to run in this year’s French elections, which will be held in April and May. Called Obama17, the petition aims to garner 1 million signatures by March 2015, and as of Friday morning, it had already gained 30,000, according to one of the people behind the effort. But even the people who launched the website acknowledge that the chances of Obama actually ascending to the Elysée Palace are virtually zero. French law requires presidential candidates to be French, which Obama is not.

 

But the impossibility of the campaign is also what inspired it. In a phone interview Thursday night, one of the people behind the petition, who asked only to be identified as “Antoine,” said he and three other friends decided to create the site out of frustration with France’s leading candidates and the campaigns they’ve run so far.

“We just wanted to say that we’ve had enough of all of these guys.”
 

“In a campaign where we only talk about the scandals of [center-right candidate François] Fillon or the rise of [far-right candidate Marine] Le Pen, at a certain moment we told ourselves well, why not?” Antoine said. “We just wanted to say that we’ve had enough of all of these guys.”

 

Antoine, who is in his 30s, says that he and his friends are not activists, and he doesn’t align himself with a particular political party. But he says he has grown tired of voting for the lesser of two evils in every presidential race, rather than a candidate who inspires genuine enthusiasm. “The only guy who’s ever made me feel that way is Obama,” he says. This week, he and his friends plastered some 500 Obama posters across Paris, each carrying the slogan: “Oui on peut” (“Yes we can”).


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#44
Raklian

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^ Didn't they try the same thing with President Bill Clinton?


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#45
caltrek

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Not sure about Clinton.

 

France's Le Pen Snubs Police Interview in Probe

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-004852833.html

 

Introduction:

 

Paris (AFP) - French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen refused Friday to attend questioning by investigating magistrates over claims she broke the rules on the use of European Parliament funds.

 

Le Pen, who is one of the frontrunners in the race, told AFP she refused to be questioned by anti-corruption investigators during the presidential campaign.

 

"I will not respond (to the summons) during the election campaign," she said.

 

"During this period, there cannot be the neutrality or calm necessary for the justice system to function properly."

 

The candidate's lawyer Rodolphe Bosselut said he was surprised by the "sudden rush" in the investigation.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#46
caltrek

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Here is another story on Obama for prez.

 

There’s a  Push to Make Obama President of France.

 

Extract:

 

Over the past week, posters with the slogan “Obama17" have been plastered around Paris. A website of the same name is urging French voters to sign a petition promising to vote for Barack Obama should he enter the French race. The website says that it is hoping to collect 1 million signatures before March 15 in a bid to convince the former U.S. president to run.

 

“The French are ready to make radical choices,” a statement on the website reads in French. “That is good because we have a radical idea to propose to them.”

 

Obama would be a good president for France, the website continues, as he has “the best résumé in the world for the job.” But France's own domestic political concerns also appeared to be a big issue in the campaign. “At a time when France is about to vote massively for the far right, we can give a lesson in democracy to the planet by electing a foreigner as French president,” the website reads.

 

According to NPR, this isn't the first petition launched to request an Obama presidency. At least two similar petitions were launched last year, though this appears to be the most successful so far — one organizer told the Verge on Friday that the group had collected 30,000 signatures.

 

However, Obama's chances at winning the French election may be slim. While polls suggest he is widely viewed positively in France — a Pew Global Research poll from last year found that 84 percent of the French had confidence that Obama would do the right thing in global affairs — Obama is not a French citizen and could not run in the French election until he became one.

C5L1qseXUAIwsRF.jpg


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#47
caltrek

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They may not play baseball much, but they are definitely

 

Playing Hardball in France

 

https://www.washingt...m=.bc4cb0c5f6cd

 

 

Introduction:

 

PARIS — The European Parliament has voted to lift Marine Le Pen’s immunity from prosecution for tweeting violent images, a crime that in France can carry up to three years in prison.

 

As Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front party , rises in the polls ahead of France’s presidential election next month, authorities will now be able to pursue a case against her. Speaking on French television Thursday morning after the European Parliament, she was quick to condemn her European colleagues for what she called “a political inquiry.” Le Pen, an avowed Euroskeptic, has said that she will follow Britain and take France out of the EU if elected president.

 

In December 2015, Le Pen tweeted a picture of James Foley, the American journalist beheaded by the Islamic State in August 2014. “Daesh is THIS!” she wrote as a caption, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State.

 

After a day of immediate and widespread outrage on social media — including from Foley’s family — Le Pen ultimately took down the tweet. “I did not know it was a picture of James Foley,” she said at the time. “It’s accessible on Google. I learned this morning that his family is asking me to withdraw it. Obviously, I immediately withdrew it.”

France_Election_70907-542f7-3636.jpg?uui

 

French far-right leader and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gestures at the start of a conference in Nantes, France, on Feb. 26.

(David Vincent/Associated Press)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#48
eacao

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Where do people get the idea that the left quashes free speech? /s

Anyway, look how that turned out for Geert Wilders' polling. I'm seeing the death throes of the EU about to be torn apart by Le Pen's election.


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#49
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#Obama2017! Because the Americans haven't already put enough stress on the poor guy.
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#50
Yuli Ban

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French election shaken by surge in support for far-left candidate

A dramatic seven-point surge by the wildcard leftwing veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be holding, unexpectedly turning France’s roller-coaster presidential race into a possible four-way contest.
Barely 10 days from the first round of voting on 23 April, the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, both with 23-24% of the vote, are still favourites to go through to the run-off round.
But Mélenchon, an acid-tongued political showman with a radical tax-and-spend platform, is now just five or six points behind. Some recent polls have placed him third, ahead of the scandal-hit centre-right candidate, François Fillon.
Mélenchon’s rise means that with up to a third of voters undecided, no two opinion polls entirely alike and margins of error to account for, it is impossible to say with certainty who of the front four will go head-to-head in the second round.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#51
caltrek

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Unprecedented Politics

 

https://mondediplo.com/2017/04/01french-politics

 

Extract:

 

(Often my extracts include over half of an article.  The article cited is more analytical in nature, and thus longer.  So my extract is a relatively smaller fraction.  It might be worth your time to read the full article).

 

 

We are entering an era in politics in which statements beginning ‘It would be the first time that...’ often announce that something previously inconceivable may be about to happen. This French presidential election is the first in which the Front National (FN) going through to the second round is not in doubt: there is a possibility (still highly improbable) that it might win. For the first time, no one is defending the record of the past five years, even though two of the outgoing president’s former ministers are standing: Benoît Hamon of the Socialist Party (PS) and Emmanuel Macron of En Marche! (Forward!). It is also the first time that the candidates from the PS and the right, which have governed France since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, could both be eliminated in the first round.

 

There is no precedent for a campaign so badly compromised by rolling news (and)… There is certainly no previous instance of a major candidate (François Fillon) being investigated for the misuse of public funds after declaring for a decade that France is bankrupt.

 

…Macron’s current popularity in the polls is all the more troubling because it risks propelling to the top job the heir to a president of record unpopularity. Hollande has said: ‘Emmanuel Macron, c’est moi. He knows what he owes me.’ Macron certainly isn’t a socialist, but then neither is Hollande. One says as much; the other sidesteps the question. Macron has turned his back on a leftwing tradition that attacked capital or finance, but that too echoes convictions Hollande set out in the 1985 book La gauche bouge (The Left is On the Move), co-authored with current defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, Jean-Pierre Mignard and Elysée chief of staff Jean-Pierre Jouyet; the first two already support Macron, and Jouyet is likely to do so.

 

… The EU had become indifferent to the democratic choices of its peoples, confident that treaties lock in the member states’ fundamental directions. Since the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory, politics has taken its revenge; a now febrile EU is watching every national election as if its life depends on it. Even victory for one of the two French candidates who have its blessing will not reassure for long.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#52
Yuli Ban

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Mélenchon: Far-leftist surges in French polls, shocking the frontrunners

With ten days to go before April 23’s first round vote, the colourful, cultured and cantankerous far-leftist has the frontrunners on the defensive.
Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist -- a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez -- holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.
On some polls, Mélenchon has now bypassed embattled conservative François Fillon for third place in a presidential race that will see the top two advance to the May 7 run-off.


Here in the States, we call just about anything that isn't laissez-faire conservative Christian capitalism "far-left" (e.g. look at Jakobs's posts hilariously calling Hillary Clinton a socialist). We throw around the terms leftist/socialist/communist like names. Oh, you use the 24-hour clock? Commie. You prefer the metric system? Commie. You think the poor need some sort of safety net? Commie. You think workers in the 1840s demanding an 8-hour workday did the right thing? Commie (seriously, there's this one guy in my college class who calls any policy that even so much as theoretically benefits laborers as 'communism', no matter what it is— and this is a class on 19th century England). So by this point, I react to claims of someone being "far-left" the same way I react to claims of conservatives being "fascists" or "Neo-Nazis"— 

BS.jpg

 

But this guy? Oh no. He is a fucking leftist. He's is basically the left wing version of Le Pen. Same anti-EU authoritarian populism, but with Trotskyite socioeconomic policies. And while I do support some of his environmental plans, god damn me if I don't it's scary to imagine if he got into power. That's how I've been feeling about a lot of leaders lately. Trump is... Trump. We've already seen what Duterte can do (interestingly, Duterte describes himself as a socialist, even though every socialist I've seen claims he's the furthest thing from one). And Brexit's been a real horrorshow (and I mean that in its actual meaning, not the nadsat I keep on spouting). 

 

An interesting phenomenon is occurring. I noticed that many Trump supporters keep claiming that Marine Le Pen is "actually pretty left-wing," if not an out-and-out leftist. The reverse is happening for Mélenchon, where many leftists are saying he's actually right-wing, a right-wing socialist at best. 

 

Mélenchon vs Le Pen. It's like Sanders vs. Trump except even more extreme.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#53
caltrek

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It is too bad that Benoît Hamon (PS) – Socialist does not seem to be in the running to make it to the run-off.  I suppose he is perceived in much the same way as Hillary Clinton was here in the U.S.  Insufficiently sensitive to the economic distress caused by previous internationalist policies.  Yet, we have seen the anguish caused by Brexit in England.  

 

Emmanuel Macron seems to be more of a centrist than Hamon and to have a better chance. Macron does seem to understand the need for reforms if France is to remain in the European Union.  It is an open question whether the reforms he envisions would do the trick.  At any rate, Macron could easily not make it to the final round.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#54
wjfox

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#55
Yuli Ban

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Marine Le Pen gets poll boost after Paris attack as Donald Trump says her chances of victory have improved

Donald Trump has said the Paris terrorist attack would boost Marine Le Pen's presidential chances after a last-minute poll gave her a modest increase in support.
The US president said the shooting would "probably help" Ms Le Pen in Sunday's election, because she is "strongest on borders, and she's the strongest on what's been going on in France."
"Whoever is the toughest on radical Islamic terrorism, and whoever is the toughest at the borders, will do well in the election," he said.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#56
caltrek

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^^^^ All this fear (or hope depending on your perspective)  about Marie Le Pen overlooks something very obvious. Look at the chart provided by Wjfox.  Mélenchon and Hamon supporters are far more likely to support Macron than they are to support Le Pen.  Even Fillon supporters are probably more likely to support a centrist like Macron than they are a far right candidate like Le Pen.  Run-off elections do have the effect of favoring centrist candidates over the extremists.  Ranked choice voting like that adopted here in Maine will probably also have that same effect.  (Ranked choice voting my still be overturned as not allowable under Maine's Constitution).  

 

Now if  Mélenchon were to some how slip past Macron, then French voters would be forced to make a choice between the far left and the far right.  My hunch is that they would vote for Mélenchon.  

 

Another objection to my forecast is that the polls cannot be relied upon.  So polling evidence that Macron would trounce Le Pen cannot be relied upon.  The election of Trump and the Brexit vote are cited in that regard.  What that ignores is how close the polls showed the Trump - Clinton election to be.  Even the Brexit vote was forecast as being close.  So what happened is that with the polls so close, everybody built upon an expectation that what was based on the assumption that the winning side would in fact win.  When votes were actually counted, that expectation proved to be wrong.  Yet the polls themselves were not that far off. Moreover, in the U.S. election, the polls actually got right who won the popular vote.  People who were paying attention to the state by state polls realized that there was at least an outside chance chance that Trump would win. Most  (but not all) predictions gave Hillary about a 65% chance of winning.  So a one in three outcome was really not all that extraordinary.  

 

In the case of France, it is my understanding that the polls for the general election are not even close.  At least not those in which Le Pen was pitted against either Macron, Fillon, or even (I think)  Hamon.  I have not seen anything that I recall showing Le Pen against Mélenchon. So, unless Mélenchon pulls an upset, Le Pen's chances are next to nothing. 

 

What is disturbing about Le Pen is the gradual increase in support she has enjoyed over the years.  There is no guarantee that her party has reached a peak. So the threat is not so much in the near term as it is down the road.  


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#57
MarcZ

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^^^^ All this fear (or hope depending on your perspective)  about Marie Le Pen overlooks something very obvious. Look at the chart provided by Wjfox.  Mélenchon and Hamon supporters are far more likely to support Macron than they are to support Le Pen.  Even Fillon supporters are probably more likely to support a centrist like Macron than they are a far right candidate like Le Pen.  Run-off elections do have the effect of favoring centrist candidates over the extremists.  Ranked choice voting like that adopted here in Maine will probably also have that same effect.  (Ranked choice voting my still be overturned as not allowable under Maine's Constitution).  

 

Now if  Mélenchon were to some how slip past Macron, then French voters would be forced to make a choice between the far left and the far right.  My hunch is that they would vote for Mélenchon.  

 

Another objection to my forecast is that the polls cannot be relied upon.  So polling evidence that Macron would trounce Le Pen cannot be relied upon.  The election of Trump and the Brexit vote are cited in that regard.  What that ignores is how close the polls showed the Trump - Clinton election to be.  Even the Brexit vote was forecast as being close.  So what happened is that with the polls so close, everybody built upon an expectation that what was based on the assumption that the winning side would in fact win.  When votes were actually counted, that expectation proved to be wrong.  Yet the polls themselves were not that far off. Moreover, in the U.S. election, the polls actually got right who won the popular vote.  People who were paying attention to the state by state polls realized that there was at least an outside chance chance that Trump would win. Most  (but not all) predictions gave Hillary about a 65% chance of winning.  So a one in three outcome was really not all that extraordinary.  

 

In the case of France, it is my understanding that the polls for the general election are not even close.  At least not those in which Le Pen was pitted against either Macron, Fillon, or even (I think)  Hamon.  I have not seen anything that I recall showing Le Pen against Mélenchon. So, unless Mélenchon pulls an upset, Le Pen's chances are next to nothing. 

 

What is disturbing about Le Pen is the gradual increase in support she has enjoyed over the years.  There is no guarantee that her party has reached a peak. So the threat is not so much in the near term as it is down the road.  

 

See I don't think you can make a direct case for Melenchon supporters going to Macron. Many of them may act like the Bernie or Bust supporters in the US and not support anybody but Melanchon and some may switch over to Le Pen if Macron is the one who faces her as many of his supporters are also anti-EU. 



#58
caltrek

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Well, from the source cited by Yuli Ban in post #50

 

 

 

Fillon, a former conservative prime minister battling allegations he paid his wife hundreds of thousands of euros of public money for minimal work as a parliamentary assistant, would beat Le Pen, but lose to either of the other two, while Mélenchon would beat Le Pen and Fillon but lose to Macron.

 

 

Unfortunately, this statement does not indicate how wide the margin of victory a Macron versus Le Pen runoff would produce.  I seem to remember other statements concerning the polls that indicate the margin is quite sizable. Interesting that this also indicates that Mélenchon would beat Le Pen.  

 

To oversimplify a bit, Mélenchon is on the far left, Le Pen on the far right. Attitudes toward the European Union is just one of the issues.  As another example, the two are diametrically opposed on the issue of immigration.  Sure, there may be some who would defect to Le Pen, but other than the European Union, there is such a wide gulf between the two on other issues that I doubt Le Pen would get anywhere near the support Macron would gain among the Mélenchon supporters.  Even on the issue of the European Union, I think the economic reform proposals of Macron would be far more palatable than Le Pen's hard Frexit attitudes.  I could be wrong,  but that is my guess.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#59
Pisiu369

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Is there any live election results polls that i can look at to see progress?



#60
caltrek

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This site advertises that it is providing live coverage.  At this writing, there is video, but no commentary.  There is also a written update that includes discussion of turnout levels.  If they are like U.S. elections, vote counts of what candidate is getting how many votes will not be reported until after the polls close.

 

http://www.telegraph...lts-exit-polls/

 

Edit:  Here is a site that looks like it is going to give vote count results lives as they come in:

 

http://www.sbs.com.a...ion/liveresults


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






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