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The Singularity - Official Thread

Singularity AI Deep Learning Technology Artificial Intelligence Future Science Culture Government Computers

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Poll: The Singularity (64 member(s) have cast votes)

How do you feel about the Singularity

  1. Voted Excited (38 votes [50.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  2. Scared (8 votes [10.53%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 10.53%

  3. Skeptical (20 votes [26.32%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 26.32%

  4. Angry (2 votes [2.63%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.63%

  5. Neutral (5 votes [6.58%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.58%

  6. What's That? (1 votes [1.32%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.32%

  7. Other (2 votes [2.63%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.63%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#41
Jakob

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^ Not related: Forgetting the jokes about Futurism.com, I think that site is our main competition.

Different vibe really. They are mostly a fictional / worldbuilding oriented site with some real-world content. We're mostly a real-world oriented site with some fictional content.



#42
Sciencerocks

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Skeptical.

 

I think humanity has more chance of becoming a religious goat herding culture. Great societies throughout history have always rose and fallen and I don't think America is any different.



#43
Jakob

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Skeptical.

 

I think humanity has more chance of becoming a religious goat herding culture. Great societies throughout history have always rose and fallen and I don't think America is any different.

What about a religious star-spanning empire.



#44
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#45
Singularity Kills

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Haha! Thoughty 2! That's my mates brother in laws channel. He's a cool guy.



#46
Future historian

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I wonder when we will pass a threashshold where by most of the population can see that technology is growing exponentially. I cant even see it growing exponentially as now without looking at technology news I wouldn't know we were expirencing exponential growth I cant see it just from looking at the world around me


JMULV is the greatest human alive


#47
caltrek

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That is the thing about exponential growth.  The actual rate of growth increases gradually enough that we don't necessarily realize how fast we are really growing.  Just like we do not realize how fast we are destroying our environment.  A big problem is how social and political institutions deal with all of this growth.  Right now, reactionaries are in control, but their control seems to be slipping away, at least here in the United States.  It is hard to say what impact the singularity will have on all of this nonsense.  It may disguise the level of it's control.  It may merge with the security state. It may embrace radicalism.  Perhaps, all of the above.  


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#48
As We Rise

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I'm very pessimistic about the future of humanity with the invention of artificial intelligence.
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Ethnic nationalism is a necessity in order to preserve true diversity of cultures. 


#49
Sciencerocks

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I'm very pessimistic about the future of humanity with the invention of artificial intelligence.

 

 

At the rate this country is going I'd almost feel better with it. ;) It can't do much worse then humanity could do.

 

Humanity is a creature that slaughters hundreds of millions of its own population for the slightest reason.


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#50
wjfox

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I wonder when we will pass a threashshold where by most of the population can see that technology is growing exponentially. I cant even see it growing exponentially as now without looking at technology news I wouldn't know we were expirencing exponential growth I cant see it just from looking at the world around me

 

One aspect of exponential growth that I've certainly "felt" is the progress of computer games and their graphics. I grew up in the early 80s and my Dad bought a 32K BBC Micro computer in about 1983, so I got to experience some of the earliest home PC games, and I'm still gaming regularly today. It's been a stunning and wonderful journey, to witness all these generations of consoles and PCs with ever-more impressive graphics. What started as laughably simple 8-bit sprites has progressed to the point where many games now have photo-realistic visuals, and Elite: Dangerous has an entire simulated galaxy. I guess the "knee of the curve" for me was around the year 2000 or so, when dedicated GPUs were becoming a thing, and I played Unreal Tournament with its gorgeous environments and textures. I am continually blown away by each new generation of games, and the next thing I want to try is VR.


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#51
Yuli Ban

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Funny thing is, advancements are still happening but our metric for it involves CG graphics, which reached its asymptote a decade ago. Meanwhile, physics and object density are rapidly improving but since you can't immediately see it, few people care. It's that modern adage: photorealistic games look beautiful until things start moving.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#52
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#53
Yuli Ban

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Takeoff speeds

Futurists have argued for years about whether the development of AGI will look more like a breakthrough within a small group (“fast takeoff”), or a continuous acceleration distributed across the broader economy or a large firm (“slow takeoff”).
I currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely. This post explains some of my reasoning and why I think it matters. Mostly the post lists arguments I often hear for a fast takeoff and explains why I don’t find them compelling.
(Note: this is not a post about whether an intelligence explosion will occur. That seems very likely to me. Quantitatively I expect it to go along these lines. So e.g. while I disagree with many of the claims and assumptions in Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics, I don’t disagree with the central thesis or with most of the arguments.)

JajefAR.png


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#54
wjfox

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Countdown to the Singularity

 

I asked the smartest people I know for their tech predictions for the next 20 years (2018 – 2038). What are the breakthroughs we can expect on our countdown to the Singularity?

I compiled 50 predictions in a document distributed to my Abundance 360 and Abundance Digital communites.

If you’d like a copy of all 50 predictions, you can download them here.

For fun, and context, here’s a dozen of those predictions...

 

http://www.diamandis...the-singularity


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#55
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Intelligence agencies confirm that stored, secure, internet messages sent between 1990-2029 have been subsequently decrypted by Cryptologically Useful Quantum Processors exposing an unprecedented cache of private communications

 

 

This is something I honestly had never fully considered and will be pretty crazy if it happens.



#56
Vivian

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Countdown to the Singularity

 

I asked the smartest people I know for their tech predictions for the next 20 years (2018 – 2038). What are the breakthroughs we can expect on our countdown to the Singularity?

I compiled 50 predictions in a document distributed to my Abundance 360 and Abundance Digital communites.

If you’d like a copy of all 50 predictions, you can download them here.

For fun, and context, here’s a dozen of those predictions...

 

http://www.diamandis...the-singularity

If rich people are really reaching longevity escape velocity by 2030,  I can hope I will be able to reach it by 2045, maybe even my parents with that treatments that increase logevity by 30-40 years.



#57
Yuli Ban

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It's possible, even probable, that AI will accelerate the commercialization of such technology. Let's not forget, personal computers were the domain of the wealthy in the 70s and 80s— you would not believe how expensive even mid-range computers were in the '90s.

 

Look at this.

CnTbAM2.jpg

And this was in 1987, so that's about $4,361.67 today.

But now you can get a computer hundreds of times more powerful for about the same amount of money as a sandwich.

pispecs2.png

The only problem is that medical technology seems to be moving in the opposite direction, at least in America. Someone needs to trust bust the price-gouging pharmaceuticals unless you want a single antiaging pill to cost $10,000 when it costs 50¢ in Sweden.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#58
Vivian

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Medical tecnology is not really going to the oposite direction. Im a doctor , and one of my professors said how it was more difficult to be a doctor in the past than it is nowadays.  When he was young, it was very hard to send the patient to tomography because it was too expensive. Today, even in a not so rich country like brasil( I live in brasil) , its much easier.  When he was young, hemodialisis machines were too expensive and they had to chose who would be treated. Nowadays, there are hemodialisis machine for everyone. 

 

While medical tecnology is also getting cheaper, the amount of money spent in health care is increasing , because a medical tecnology doesnt substitute another medical tecnology, they  are just added.  Just imagine if you needed to buy all versions of computers ever released( at the same time)  just to access the internet. You also dont need to buy every model of cellphone ever released to have a normal life, nobody will buy a cellphone model of 1990 nowadays. But  yes, we basically need to do this with medical tecnology to be healthy.  Tomografy doesnt substitute X ray, there are things for which x ray is better, ultrassound is better for other things. We cant just tomography everyone , even if tomography becomes very cheap, because tomography uses too much radiation and would increase the cancer rates in the popuation if used too much. So, we use radiography and ultrasound  first  and then we use tomography if its needed. Many people that use tomography nowadays also used radiography.  Hemodialisis machines are cheaper now, but they increase the total amount of money spent on health because people with kidney failure are living longer.

 

Anti- ageing pills might actually decrese money spent on health care because they would decrease age related diseases. Ageing is similar to AIDS in some ways,  they both lead people to other diseases. Anti- Aids pills prevent other diseases, just like anti-ageing pills would.  At 1995, only rich people could   have the anti-AIDS  pills, and they still died before 2000 .  At 2010, people with MUCH LESS money than me ( im not rich)  got anti-aids pills and they are living without the opportunist diseases  that rich people paid milions to not have  just 15 years before.


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#59
Yuli Ban

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2008 vs 2018: Has technology improved our daily life?

 

If we are to follow the beliefs and trends in technology, it should be accelerating. Everything from Moores law, to the concept of accelerating returns coined by likes of futurist Ray Kurzweil, to what seems like to be a general belief: technology is ever-accelerating.

I’m actually a strong believer in this “faith”. I buy the argument technology is improving faster and faster, and I think that when we dig into the numbers and graphs, it’s quite true. However, I’m also disappointed. For the last last 5 years, I’ve followed technology development very much. I’ve read *many* books, blogs and listened to podcasts. I’ve added Singularity University events. I’ve even been through a special 5-day program introducing all these new amazing technologies. 

And I’m somehow disappointed. It’s awesome to hear about technologies such as machine learning/AI, cryptocurrencies, self-driving cars, drones, graphene, biology and all that get all the “amazing headlines”, but I don’t really feel it touches my life. It all feels very much like hype; all hype that doesn’t really revolutionize how I brush my teeth or how I sleep.

After reading about this whole “ever accelerating technology” movement in 2013, I thought 2018 would look very different. I thought drones would deliver products, some cars would at least be self-driving and my clothes would have some chips in them. Heck, at least I thought Siri could at least understand what I’m saying.
But the reality is that none of above has touched my life yet – probably because of way-to-optimistic deadlines.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#60
Yuli Ban

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The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence

What does it feel like to stand here?

Edge1.png



It seems like a pretty intense place to be standing—but then you have to remember something about what it’s like to stand on a time graph: you can’t see what’s to your right. So here’s how it actually feels to stand there:

Edge.jpg



Which probably feels pretty normal…

 

The Far Future—Coming Soon

Imagine taking a time machine back to 1750—a time when the world was in a permanent power outage, long-distance communication meant either yelling loudly or firing a cannon in the air, and all transportation ran on hay. When you get there, you retrieve a dude, bring him to 2015, and then walk him around and watch him react to everything. It’s impossible for us to understand what it would be like for him to see shiny capsules racing by on a highway, talk to people who had been on the other side of the ocean earlier in the day, watch sports that were being played 1,000 miles away, hear a musical performance that happened 50 years ago, and play with my magical wizard rectangle that he could use to capture a real-life image or record a living moment, generate a map with a paranormal moving blue dot that shows him where he is, look at someone’s face and chat with them even though they’re on the other side of the country, and worlds of other inconceivable sorcery. This is all before you show him the internet or explain things like the International Space Station, the Large Hadron Collider, nuclear weapons, or general relativity.
This experience for him wouldn’t be surprising or shocking or even mind-blowing—those words aren’t big enough. He might actually die.
But here’s the interesting thing—if he then went back to 1750 and got jealous that we got to see his reaction and decided he wanted to try the same thing, he’d take the time machine and go back the same distance, get someone from around the year 1500, bring him to 1750, and show him everything. And the 1500 guy would be shocked by a lot of things—but he wouldn’t die. It would be far less of an insane experience for him, because while 1500 and 1750 were very different, they were much less different than 1750 to 2015. The 1500 guy would learn some mind-bending shit about space and physics, he’d be impressed with how committed Europe turned out to be with that new imperialism fad, and he’d have to do some major revisions of his world map conception. But watching everyday life go by in 1750—transportation, communication, etc.—definitely wouldn’t make him die.
No, in order for the 1750 guy to have as much fun as we had with him, he’d have to go much farther back—maybe all the way back to about 12,000 BC, before the First Agricultural Revolution gave rise to the first cities and to the concept of civilization. If someone from a purely hunter-gatherer world—from a time when humans were, more or less, just another animal species—saw the vast human empires of 1750 with their towering churches, their ocean-crossing ships, their concept of being “inside,” and their enormous mountain of collective, accumulated human knowledge and discovery—he’d likely die.
And then what if, after dying, he got jealous and wanted to do the same thing. If he went back 12,000 years to 24,000 BC and got a guy and brought him to 12,000 BC, he’d show the guy everything and the guy would be like, “Okay what’s your point who cares.” For the 12,000 BC guy to have the same fun, he’d have to go back over 100,000 years and get someone he could show fire and language to for the first time.
In order for someone to be transported into the future and die from the level of shock they’d experience, they have to go enough years ahead that a “die level of progress,” or a Die Progress Unit (DPU) has been achieved. So a DPU took over 100,000 years in hunter-gatherer times, but at the post-Agricultural Revolution rate, it only took about 12,000 years. The post-Industrial Revolution world has moved so quickly that a 1750 person only needs to go forward a couple hundred years for a DPU to have happened.
This pattern—human progress moving quicker and quicker as time goes on—is what futurist Ray Kurzweil calls human history’s Law of Accelerating Returns. This happens because more advanced societies have the ability to progress at a faster rate than less advanced societies—because they’re more advanced. 19th century humanity knew more and had better technology than 15th century humanity, so it’s no surprise that humanity made far more advances in the 19th century than in the 15th century—15th century humanity was no match for 19th century humanity.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.






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