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First Year With Zero Airline Fatalities?

airplanes transport poll

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11 replies to this topic

Poll: First Year With Zero Airline Fatalities? (12 member(s) have cast votes)

First year with zero airline fatalities?

  1. 2020-2029 (4 votes [33.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

  2. 2030-2039 (2 votes [16.67%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 16.67%

  3. 2040-2049 (1 votes [8.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.33%

  4. 2050-2059 (1 votes [8.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 8.33%

  5. 2060-2099 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. 2100+ (4 votes [33.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
Jakob

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Inspired by MarcZ's status update. Vote away.

 

Note: not asking about the last airline fatality ever, as there will always be freak accidents. Just the first time we go a year without any deaths.



#2
Sciencerocks

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Probably when we have some form of full proof A.I controlled aircrafts that are made out of some form of material that can survive a drop of 30,000 feet.

 

I'd say in the 22nd century.

 

The A.I of course will result in the firing of all human pilots so it will probably happen no matter what if we get to that point.



#3
Jakob

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I will reiterate in case it's not clear: I'm only talking about one full year with zero accidents, not the last accident ever.



#4
Mike the average

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I went 22nd century because of 3 requirements.

1. Failsafe global coordination and communication of all traffic especially if we are including new forms of personal aircraft we are seeing prototypes of. This is all just software but needs network communication with no boundaries which we still dont have yet. No AI or ML is needed unless we are allowing for human control.

2. Perfected failsafe engineered aircraft. Harder with personal aircraft on the horizon.

3. Transhuman physical form. Changes the picture altogether if it arrives this century.

I hope personal aircrafts never happen. Humans wanting to still control vehicles will hold us back a decade.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein

#5
MarcZ

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I think the likelihood of a zero death year is not foreseeable in the near to mid-term range. Aviation fatalities also include things like private aircraft fatalities which would still be likely to tally a few a year unless we have some extremely advanced AI to mitigate the human factor which is involved in most fatalities. Also these statistics also include military aviation deaths from conflict which there is usually a few of these a year as well. So not only would technology have to be super advanced but the year would likely also need to have no conflict in a given year, or at least no conflicts between powers that would have the potential to take down aircraft.

 

However, if you narrow the definition away from military aviation to simply civilian aviation there could be a fluke year like this near the end of the century as automation takes hold. But I do not expect to see such a year like this in my lifetime. We are only this year going to be getting satellite coverage to track all aircraft. To fully automate airliners is an even more gargantuan task as we would need to have  much more advanced satellite and global data infrastructure that can transmit data back and forth between airlines and their operation centers as well as extremely efficient computers to safely manage all the potential threats to airliners, be it from collisions, atmospheric conditions, military threats, etc... which right now is no anywhere close to being created and will be a far bigger challenge than autonomous vehicles.

 

Although the airlines would love this technology as labor expenses are the biggest to airlines and pilots are the most well paid staff, so there might be some willingness to invest in it. However, I think automation here is a long way off. Heck even trying to automate the task of scheduling air crews, something you think a computer could handle is way to mathematically complex a task for computers to ever solve efficiently (think p=np problems) and this job is still assigned to teams of humans working with computers and this type of job may never be fully automated.


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#6
eacao

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need to have no conflict in a given year, or at least no conflicts between powers that would have the potential to take down aircraft


Or no manned combat aircraft
Only take advice from people who have what you want.
You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.

#7
Jakob

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I think the likelihood of a zero death year is not foreseeable in the near to mid-term range. Aviation fatalities also include things like private aircraft fatalities which would still be likely to tally a few a year unless we have some extremely advanced AI to mitigate the human factor which is involved in most fatalities. Also these statistics also include military aviation deaths from conflict which there is usually a few of these a year as well. So not only would technology have to be super advanced but the year would likely also need to have no conflict in a given year, or at least no conflicts between powers that would have the potential to take down aircraft.

 

However, if you narrow the definition away from military aviation to simply civilian aviation there could be a fluke year like this near the end of the century as automation takes hold. But I do not expect to see such a year like this in my lifetime. We are only this year going to be getting satellite coverage to track all aircraft. To fully automate airliners is an even more gargantuan task as we would need to have  much more advanced satellite and global data infrastructure that can transmit data back and forth between airlines and their operation centers as well as extremely efficient computers to safely manage all the potential threats to airliners, be it from collisions, atmospheric conditions, military threats, etc... which right now is no anywhere close to being created and will be a far bigger challenge than autonomous vehicles.

 

Although the airlines would love this technology as labor expenses are the biggest to airlines and pilots are the most well paid staff, so there might be some willingness to invest in it. However, I think automation here is a long way off. Heck even trying to automate the task of scheduling air crews, something you think a computer could handle is way to mathematically complex a task for computers to ever solve efficiently (think p=np problems) and this job is still assigned to teams of humans working with computers and this type of job may never be fully automated.

Hmm, yeah, I'm starting to see how this could be more difficult than I thought. And I didn't even think about military aircraft.

 

Wish I could change it to 2060-99.



#8
MarcZ

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need to have no conflict in a given year, or at least no conflicts between powers that would have the potential to take down aircraft


Or no manned combat aircraft

 

 

True. However, humans will likely always have some part to play in warfare and there will still be transport aircraft for military operations that could be targets.

 

Edit: Also can I say I'm shocked you only have ~200ish posts here eacao. Based on the amount of times I see your posts I would assume you have more. Or perhaps we are drawn to the same types of topics and thus I am more likely to see your comments.



#9
eacao

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About a year ago I had my old posts deleted. Some things are either best left off the internet or on other more appropriate forums.
Only take advice from people who have what you want.
You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.

#10
MarcZ

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Oh.



#11
Alislaws

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Strictly speaking the original question was about "Airline fatalities" (unless that's been changed since).

 

Focusing on commercial passenger airlines serving the public would exclude most private jets, and small aircraft, as well as anything military, or otherwise dangerous, like search and rescue/coastguard flights, and a year with no major commercial airline fatalities might be possible much sooner.


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#12
Mike the average

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yeah, i did get rather carried away


'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein





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