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America 2050


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#1
wjfox

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How do you picture America in the mid-21st century? What kind of societal, cultural, business and political changes do you foresee happening by then?

 

One of my upcoming additions to the timeline will be "2051 – The U.S. population reaches 400 million".

 

Now, I could probably just write a sentence or two describing this statistical milestone. But I thought it would be more interesting to include some additional background on what the country is like by then. So feel free to share your thoughts/predictions here and maybe I'll include some of them.

 

My initial thoughts are that the country will be ethnically more diverse by then, whites having recently become a minority (in the 2040s). Will the nation be as divided and polarised, though? The Baby Boomers will have pretty much died out. The country will be more urbanised and a lot more technologically advanced. Climate change will be having severe impacts on America's infrastructure and there could be a serious refugee problem. The southern Bible Belt states will continue to lag behind the rest of the country, and climate change will exacerbate regional differences.

 

Let me know your thoughts and ideas.

 

 

 

us-population-2060-future-estimate.jpg



#2
joe00uk

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I don't believe that the United States of America will continue to exist as a political entity by then. I think what is today the USA will have fragmented into several smaller states either through defeat and subsequent occupation in a world war or through a civil war, and I think either one or the other calamity will happen and that one of these happening would preclude the other happening. If there's a world war, that would probably (but I'm less confident about this) halt the descent into civil war but if there's no world war I don't think there'll be anything to stop a civil war. Already the US is in a state of advanced social decay and it's only being aggravated as the conditions which created this decay worsen. For this 'final collapse', I'm talking probably within the next decade or two, so well before 2050. I think there was some Russian professor who had a prediction that the US would split into four nations - not that he specifically called them this, but the regions generally corresponded to the Pacific States, the Atlantic States, the Gulf States and the Midwestern States. Alaska would be annexed by Russia and Hawaii would become independent nominally but would probably become a Chinese client state and the same fate would await Puerto Rico. I think all that is certainly plausible - indeed, probable. I don't think there's any way the USA as it exists today can sustain itself. I have a sincere conviction that the US is headed for some kind of collapse, and a violent one at that. As much as I do also believe that the US needs to collapse before anything really progressive can happen there, I do hope I'm wrong about it being a violent collapse, I do hope it can peacefully wither away but I just don't see that as likely. Whatever happens, the US will be eclipsed by China as the global superpower and that will inevitably have drastic consequences for the US, for China, and for the world.


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#3
wjfox

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I don't believe that the United States of America will continue to exist as a political entity by then. I think what is today the USA will have fragmented into several smaller states either through defeat and subsequent occupation in a world war or through a civil war, and I think either one or the other calamity will happen and that one of these happening would preclude the other happening. If there's a world war, that would probably (but I'm less confident about this) halt the descent into civil war but if there's no world war I don't think there'll be anything to stop a civil war. Already the US is in a state of advanced social decay and it's only being aggravated as the conditions which created this decay worsen. For this 'final collapse', I'm talking probably within the next decade or two, so well before 2050. I think there was some Russian professor who had a prediction that the US would split into four nations - not that he specifically called them this, but the regions generally corresponded to the Pacific States, the Atlantic States, the Gulf States and the Midwestern States. Alaska would be annexed by Russia and Hawaii would become independent nominally but would probably become a Chinese client state and the same fate would await Puerto Rico. I think all that is certainly plausible - indeed, probable. I don't think there's any way the USA as it exists today can sustain itself. I have a sincere conviction that the US is headed for some kind of collapse, and a violent one at that. As much as I do also believe that the US needs to collapse before anything really progressive can happen there, I do hope I'm wrong about it being a violent collapse, I do hope it can peacefully wither away but I just don't see that as likely. Whatever happens, the US will be eclipsed by China as the global superpower and that will inevitably have drastic consequences for the US, for China, and for the world.

 

 

kqADBEu.gif


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#4
joe00uk

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Is that gif supposed to be sarcastic? I can't really tell :p



#5
TranscendingGod

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Haha if I knew how to post pictures/gifs I would so do that most/all the time but alas I'm too lazy to figure out how to do it.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#6
TranscendingGod

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America 2050 will be the story of the World 2050... Even more than it is now. That story has largely been and will likely be a better one.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#7
Teal

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In 2050, America will be what it is today with all of the problems exaggerated even further. Political divides will result in a situation similar to Northern Ireland during The Troubles, Hispanic population growth will make the Southwest exist in a situation almost parallel to Quebec to Canada. Constant droughts will make the interior southwest (Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Southern Utah) uninhabitable and will flee to the midwest or California. Anchorage, Alaska will be the fastest growing major city. Americans will no longer care about owning a home, getting a job as a young adult or having a car as more become recluses that spend majority of their time on the internet. Renting self driving cars and apartments is normal. Less people are born, more people die. Longevity reaches 85. Vast majority of americans have cryptocurrency and use it to buy items. The military is focused exclusively on the Indo-Pacific Region. The Middle east is irrelevant to the USA. healthcare now costs 25% of the american's income. By now a hispanic president is elected. China has overtaken america in scientific output but america is the dominant power in media and military might. A major hurricane hits Houston by 2050 causing its complete annihilation and a recovery that takes decades. A terrorist attack worse than 9/11 occurs and the culprits are domestic terrorists.



#8
Sciencerocks

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Depends on who wins the current political war.

 

If the rich/religious win = most of society will be very poor and will likely look more like India by how classes are treated by that time. Personal freedom will be greatly reduced as the religious side of this will demand strict religious "conformity" on all. Think 1950's socially or maybe even Victorian age morality standards.

 

If the left can stop the bleeding and get back into power?? It depends on how much we can hold off the above by how much social and economic progress that can be had. This will judge who can benefit from in any advancements we do see these next 32 years. I will say this if the above outright rules such advancements will greatly be reduced.


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“He who dares not offend cannot be honest,” — Thomas Paine


#9
As We Rise

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I can see America broken apart by the 2040s and become a series of warring states motivation by their own eco-political agendas.
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The reality? There are millions of normal people who are starting to LIKE the idea of fascism BECAUSE there are literal bolsheviks flooding the streets and attacking people. I swear to God, when the Left actually gets the storm they've been preaching about, you won't even see it on the news. The population will just shrink from 330 million to 230 million overnight and nobody will ever speak of it again.


#10
Erowind

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Assuming neoliberal capitalism is still the dominant world ideology I don't see the USA collapsing whatsoever by then. It will undoubtedly become more authoritarian but most people genuinely won't care, they'll be too busy being self defeating nihilists masquerading as liberals and conservatives much like today only any semblance of truth or integrity will have vanished. Trump will be a saint compared to the entertainers that will play politics for people in the future (from both "parties.") And that's all it will be is play, the media will capitalize on "political discourse" more than it already has and true power will reside in the hands of competing neoliberal planners.

As for the switching of world hegemony I see those aforementioned neoliberals slowly aligning with the Chinese and putting on a show for everyone. The US and China will on the surface be adversaries but we'll trade with them nevertheless and the world economy will chug along as if there's no tension. It will be a show, much like our interactions with the DPRK are today. Economically China will just generate more revanue for its capitalist class than the US's but our capitalists won't care because this relationship will also fill their pockets nicely. Now keep in mind I'm not implying conspiracy, this will be a sociological trend that the neoliberals will unconsciously carry out, there are no shadow cabals.

Environmentally speaking the US will be under heavy stress but will wheather the storm for now. More inland cities like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Denver and so on may start seeing the first wave of internal climate refugees though. Areas that become no man's lands will become hotbeds for crime, ecohomesteaders and experimental societies like communes. In the absence of police departments formally funded by collapsed municipalities anarchy will claim the land. In some instances actual anarchists or other well rounded people will create functioning societies in the absence of state oversight. In other instances these outlands will be cesspools for criminals. The media will focus on the latter if course. And with the majority of the population living in the cities I don't see the state spending many resources policing the outlands except in cases of truly heinous crimes or revolutionaries exherting influence on their precious cities.

Politically speaking expect minority ideologies to be more vocal, vehement and larger. Nazis in the streets, communists trying at inssurection and revolution, transhumanists building arcologies, prmitavists going tribal, hacktavists dissapearing into the wired and the truly religious creating a subset to current civilization in order to maintain their values (I'm talking small cities almost wholly populated by evangelists.)

This will all be leading up to a paradigm shift in human culture, who knows what direction that shift will take though.

Note: Written on mobile, mind the grammar.

Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#11
TranscendingGod

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Talks about the collapse of the United States... Emphasizes that he wrote on his phone so forgive his egregious grammatical mistakes.

 

I find that ironic. It's like in a movie where a couple people get killed and they're like "aww man I got blood on my wheels". It makes sense I guess in that the person complaining about the ridiculous thing couldn't have done much about the crazy shit but their sordid behavior emphasizes a superficialness about any reaction or opinion they may or may not have to the events taking place.

 

Edit: If anything I find Joe's and your writings Erowind nihilistic but then again it is understandable considering that everything you guys say has ulterior motives. More so than normal since of course none of us can be completely dispassionate when writing. However with you guys you can feel the forcefulness of your words as if your simply writing would force these far from happy circumstances upon the world. Then your attempts to say "but oh I actually never want to see this happen... but it's inexorably going to happen trust me" feel like the most worthless of afterthoughts. 


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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#12
Erowind

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I'm glad my writing comes off as forceful and envokes emotion in you! That gives me confidence I could be a writer one day, genuinely thankyou for the feedback :D

Anywho I'm curious, what are Joe and I's alterior motives? Am I unknowingly exherting a social inertia here. I mean I want the downfall of capitalism if that's what you're referring to. Also I wouldn't call what I described the collapse of the US. It's not the same US that we have now, but then again neither is the modern state of this country compared to that of the 1950s.

I'm not being superficial though, people have literally nitpicked my grammar on this forum before, and sometimes I can only participate in discussion from my phone. I'm not straining my eyes on this tiny screen anymore than needed.

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#13
TranscendingGod

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Joe's ulterior motives? Well the one he's stated a half billion times. The usurpation of capitalism by socialism/communism by any means necessary as even bloody revolution would mean millions of lives saved from the capitalist regime et al.

 

Then again that's not ulterior is it...


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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#14
Ewolf20

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united states would be unrecognizable eventually. 



#15
Yuli Ban

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It's hard to say because you have to factor in the state of the world at large as well. And the events that could occur boggle the mind.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#16
Raklian

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I envision California and northeastern coast dominating politics during the 2050s. States that used to be solidly Republican, like Texas and Arizona, will become blue, if lightly so, as the economic ravages from technological unemployment reach critical mass especially how it will hit the Hispanic population, which will become a major ethnic group in those states, the hardest. They may threaten to form an union of their own if Washington continues not to heed their demands but Washington will eventually succumb due to intense pressures by sympathetic California and northeastern states. The red states in the middle of the country will be left behind in the dust, swallowed up by their economic poverty and technological ineptitude due to misguided regressive tax and social policies. A few decades later, they will also come out of their shell when their more progressive-minded grandchildren take over the state governments.

 

United States will finally become a socially democratic Republic - for the most part, at least.

 

And, no - it won't be divided into countries due to the fact its integrity is glued together by the unique design of its federalism. Instead, the country will evolve due to the changing voting patterns by its citizens. You could say it's one of its strengths. I'm not saying it will be a clean transition. It will be messy. Instances of monumental change the US underwent was often bloody.


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What are you without the sum of your parts?

#17
zEVerzan

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In 2050, America will be what it is today with all of the problems exaggerated even further.

 

Not a fan of this approach to prediction. As far as social/political change goes I imagine it as a flip-flopping ouroboros where every successive generation comes up with a reactionary beliefs to rebel against the beliefs of their parent generation.

 

Example: Baby Boomers and Gen Xer's whom need no introduction, are pretty right-leaning. As a reaction, millennials, who are now in their 20s and 30s, are for the most part agreed to be the most leftist generation so far. As a reaction to that, a lot of gen Z Americans, who are approaching voting age at the oldest, exhibit that alt-right fuck-your-feels im-gonna-buy-alex-jones-products-and-say-the-n-word-cause-it-makes-you-mad-MAGA attitude, and so may be the most right-leaning generation since the 1940s.

 

Taking this pattern into account, what kind of social movements will we likely be seeing in 2050? Aside from the pretty obvious climate change and robots-related movements and counter-movements...

 

I predict the generation following gen z, born in the 2020's to 2030's, will grow up to be even more left-wing than American millennials, and will be shaping policy by the 2050s. By that time, the successive generation poised to replace them will be even more right-leaning than gen Z will become. The reason for these swinging extremes is because of the increasingly dire state of the world by this time.


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#18
tierbook

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The US will continue on as it has, our position isn't exactly getting weaker....



#19
Alislaws

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The US will continue on as it has, our position isn't exactly getting weaker....

Except in all the ways that it is? Wait is this sarcasm?

 

Sure the USA is not actually getting directly weaker, but many other nations are getting stronger much faster than the USA, so in all the ways that matter the USA is losing power.

 

The USA has been undisputed master of the world since the fall of the USSR, by 2050 china and probably India will be ahead of the USA in economic power as well as having several times the population. Plus automation will have continued allowing places like Russia and Canada to become much more powerful economically than their populations allow today.

 

Not to mention current trends of the USA pulling away from it's role as an international leader, if this continues we could see an independent Europe competing directly with the USA for global influence in 250 leaving the balance of power in the world split between Europe, USA, China, India and maybe Russia. A very very different world from today.


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#20
TranscendingGod

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The US will continue on as it has, our position isn't exactly getting weaker....

Except in all the ways that it is? Wait is this sarcasm?

 

Sure the USA is not actually getting directly weaker, but many other nations are getting stronger much faster than the USA, so in all the ways that matter the USA is losing power.

 

The USA has been undisputed master of the world since the fall of the USSR, by 2050 china and probably India will be ahead of the USA in economic power as well as having several times the population. Plus automation will have continued allowing places like Russia and Canada to become much more powerful economically than their populations allow today.

 

Not to mention current trends of the USA pulling away from it's role as an international leader, if this continues we could see an independent Europe competing directly with the USA for global influence in 250 leaving the balance of power in the world split between Europe, USA, China, India and maybe Russia. A very very different world from today.

 

Call me crazy or quixotic but I don't think we'll be all that worried about who is "stronger" or whatever in 2050. I think there will be free movement of labor, exchange of information, and perhaps a global sort of citizenship. Increased globalization rather than what a lot of people have now come to expect. Sure there will be strengths in certain places but every country will clearly have some appeal and will be places where you can live comfortably. 

 

Maybe something like the European Union. Yes I know about Brexit and the United States pulling back on global affairs and global trade. Still give it a couple of years and I think we'll continue the trend that has been present since after WWII. The benefits are just too great.


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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 





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