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Why are people so blind to the change that is coming!


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#1
cerealkiller

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My sister-in-law is a trainee accountant, she should be fully qualified in the next two years. I was talking to her yesterday about automation (I can't remember why the subject was brought up) and we were discussing the types of jobs that will be going, or significantly reduced in the next, say, 15 years, and I mentioned that accountancy and auditors will be one of the quickest ones to go as they're so easy to automate. She refuses to accept that an AI could do her job as it's highly skilled. I tried to explain there are already algorithms being designed to replace repetitive work and can do her job a lot quicker.

I have had this discussion with a couple of people in the past couple of years (the other ones son was training to be a lawyer) and they both got pretty heated about the subject and didn't have much of an idea of what they were talking about!

People are walking around with their eyes closed!
We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#2
Jakob

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If everyone around you seems crazy, then maybe it's you that's crazy.



#3
cerealkiller

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Did I say everyone around me seems crazy? But hey, thanks for the pointless contribution.
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We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#4
zEVerzan

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Presenting your arguments in a way that doesn't antagonize them is important. If you get frustrated and call them a sheeple or something you'll make them defensive and they'll close their mind, even if what you're saying is completely reasonable.

 

Topics like these especially are tricky because your sister-in-law will have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that she made the wrong career choice / doesn't want to acknowledge how disposable she will become. Also, using dramatic phrasing like "blind to the change" and "People are walking around with their eyes closed!" makes you seem a biiiiiiiiit like a cultist. You might as well be talking about lizard people!

 

Just state the facts and trends and don't get emotional about it.


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I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
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#5
Jakob

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But hey, thanks for the pointless contribution.

Likewise to you.



#6
Maximus

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Well it's probably pretty hard for your sister-in-law to accept that something she's put so much time and energy into is a complete waste. There's also the time delay aspect of automation; just like climate change, it's a medium to long-term threat, rather than an immediate one. Studies have shown that these types of problems come very low on people's list of priorities/worries. Most people are more concerned with what will pay next month's bills, rather than the chance that a robot may be able to do their job 15 years from now. If your sister doesn't have much of an interest in future tech, I'd expect her to be even less interested or intimidated by the threat of automation. 

 

I'd say the best way to approach these people is to not sound like you know more than them, and not present the issue as a doomsday scenario. Just present cold hard facts, and let them come to their own conclusions. If you antagonize them, their emotional response will be to shut you out, no matter how good or reasoned your argument is. If you make it sound like the world is gonna end, they're just gonna dismiss it as some crackpot conspiracy theory. Just give them the facts, and they'll start to piece it together over time. Maybe next time they see a news report on AI, they'll remember what you said, and everything will click into place.



#7
zEVerzan

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Don't forget that people are also more inclined to blame immigrants for reducing the demand for their labor than machines.  Immigrants are a way more tangible and scary threat to people of a certain worldview than automation is and so someone who's lost their job to an immigrant is more likely to become a racist than a socialist.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#8
Singularity Kills

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I firmly believe ageing will be reversed, AI will automate everything, FIVR will be where most people spend their leisure time

and everyone will be living in a hedonistic, high quality of life environment whether simulated or not.

 

However on a day to day basis I don't think of these and still worry about the future, growing old, having little money and not

getting the career I want.

 

The reason is I can't wait for life to change into what I would like it to be I have to continue as though it wont change until it

does.

The difference between people like us and people like them are we think about the future a lot and they don't so its like your

talking an alien language, they also don't see the benefits of technology until it is actually benefiting them.

 

Tech also has a habit of coming in slowly and creeping up on people even when the time-frame seems fast such as the internet

and social networks which took over very quickly but no-one felt a dramatic change.

It has to seem at first trivial or just a flash in the pan novelty for people to accept it and then the insidious tech has snuck its way

in and made their lives better without them realising it and now they can do without.

 

Same will be for all the above techs and many more they will at first seem impossible, then silly, then pointless, then unimportant,

then very important.


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#9
Erowind

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don't get emotional about it.


Really hard to do when foolishness can be so high. A best friend of mine--who might not be a friend in a year at this rate--said to my face the other day that she thinks it's right to profit from other people's stupidity. Which translates to, "I want to take advantage of people for my own gain, especially when they're too uninformed to decide for themselves." Not even most capitalists are that overtly cruel, hell consumer protection laws exist to stop the snake oil salesmen for a reason.

Needless to say I blew up on her a bit at which point she used personal attacks in rebuttle, because you know, the position is actually ethically bankrupt and at that point it wasn't a debate but an argument.

Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#10
cerealkiller

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Presenting your arguments in a way that doesn't antagonize them is important. If you get frustrated and call them a sheeple or something you'll make them defensive and they'll close their mind, even if what you're saying is completely reasonable.

Topics like these especially are tricky because your sister-in-law will have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that she made the wrong career choice / doesn't want to acknowledge how disposable she will become. Also, using dramatic phrasing like "blind to the change" and "People are walking around with their eyes closed!" makes you seem a biiiiiiiiit like a cultist. You might as well be talking about lizard people!

Just state the facts and trends and don't get emotional about it.

Good points, but of course I'm not rude enough to say to these people they're blind, I'm just stating it here because we know what's coming. :)
We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#11
cerealkiller

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Well it's probably pretty hard for your sister-in-law to accept that something she's put so much time and energy into is a complete waste. There's also the time delay aspect of automation; just like climate change, it's a medium to long-term threat, rather than an immediate one. Studies have shown that these types of problems come very low on people's list of priorities/worries. Most people are more concerned with what will pay next month's bills, rather than the chance that a robot may be able to do their job 15 years from now. If your sister doesn't have much of an interest in future tech, I'd expect her to be even less interested or intimidated by the threat of automation.

I'd say the best way to approach these people is to not sound like you know more than them, and not present the issue as a doomsday scenario. Just present cold hard facts, and let them come to their own conclusions. If you antagonize them, their emotional response will be to shut you out, no matter how good or reasoned your argument is. If you make it sound like the world is gonna end, they're just gonna dismiss it as some crackpot conspiracy theory. Just give them the facts, and they'll start to piece it together over time. Maybe next time they see a news report on AI, they'll remember what you said, and everything will click into place.

Yeah, it's not my intention to antagonize people at all, but I guess when you're telling someone about changes to their roles in the not too distant future they will get intimidated by it.
The thing is she happily accepts other jobs are being automated and can see things like supermarkets here have already started some form of automation, but she categorically believes that AI will only take simple jobs like retail.
We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#12
cerealkiller

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Just 18 months ago my brother lost his job and was extremely close to paying to re-train as a lorry driver and was looking at driving schools. This would have cost him thousands to retrain. I sat him down and explained why this was a bad idea and he didn't believe me. I showed him some videos on YouTube and it opened his eyes to something he knew nothing about. He subsequently changed his mind and has started retraining as an electrician.

He now takes an interest in technology and actively strikes up conversations with me about it. We were talking about 3d printed houses the other day and when I mentioned they can 3d print concrete he couldn't get his head round how until I showed them doing it.
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We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#13
zEVerzan

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That's awesome! Maybe if that brother of yours and the un-receptive sister-in-law are involved, he'll get through to her. And try that approach with others, I suppose.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#14
Merlin

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I'm graduating this coming May with a bachelors in chemical engineering. I'm hoping that my profession will one of the last to be taken over by AI, but with the ever increasing growth of these technologies, I'm not so sure. Once AI becomes better than humans at designing processes, I don't know what I'll do. Hopefully all the AI roaming the planet will be benevolent...hopefully...



#15
cerealkiller

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That's awesome! Maybe if that brother of yours and the un-receptive sister-in-law are involved, he'll get through to her. And try that approach with others, I suppose.


He's tried to get through to her as well to no avail. Maybe sometime in the next 15 years or so she'll come back to me and admit she was wrong - we'll see, eh?

It was only my intention to help her see what's coming and for her to maybe broaden her horizons and not put all her eggs in one basket.
We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#16
cerealkiller

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I'm graduating this coming May with a bachelors in chemical engineering. I'm hoping that my profession will one of the last to be taken over by AI, but with the ever increasing growth of these technologies, I'm not so sure. Once AI becomes better than humans at designing processes, I don't know what I'll do. Hopefully all the AI roaming the planet will be benevolent...hopefully...

I don't know anything about that sort of job so I wouldn't dare comment. I hope it one of the last to go for your sake, mate.

At least by the time it does happen there should hopefully be Some form of welfare in place like UBI and all the issues will have been ironed out.
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We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#17
tomasth

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If the job require human level range of abilities , then many other jobs will so follow it ; so its best to not worry about machine taking jobs , because by the time that it will have an effect , it be of no use going after the alternative ones.


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#18
Yuli Ban

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I love talking about this subject but since I don't have any Adderall to fuel my writing binges right now, I'll instead put it in short before my energy levels drop to nothing and I waste the day watching YouTube videos:

 

People are used to last year, not next year. Most first-world people live in the year 2008 right now. Which is to say, 2008 but with 2018 smartphones. And we don't think exponentially. Part of the reason is that we can't. We can try, but we have doubt built in to temper expectations. Not to mention we vastly oversimplify things, assigning narrative and meaning to meaningless patterns and unfolding events. 

There's a paradox at work as well— we remember the times futurist predictions have failed and use those failures to claim new developments won't happen or are exaggerated, but we also use science fiction to claim that we should have certain things and then get disappointed when they don't arrive "on time." See: predictions of food pills, moon bases, and flying cars vs. mania over Back to the Future 2 in 2015. 

 

In short, people have a very specific idea of what "the future" is supposed to be (hence why I trademarked it so many years ago). They think it sounds cool, dystopian, exciting, whathaveyou, but they also believe that it's something they won't experience. Because it's such tremendous change, part of them— us— don't want it to happen sooner than a day after our natural deaths. It's so vulgar to think about. 

It's fun to imagine the changes when you're on a forum, watching videos of experts discussing hypotheticals, and writing science fiction novels. But actually spend a little bit of time around real people, and that excitement gets tempered when you imagine them being put out of work by machines. Some of them will be unemployed before their natural deaths, but they are older than some parents of this forum's members. They grew up being taught how the world works. There have been many changes, but things are still at least somewhat recognizable. But it won't be that way for long. 

 

We are nomadic at heart, so we evolved to deal with the unexpected. However, we also evolved in a world that didn't change over the course of tens of thousands of years, whereas now people have to be re-educated in their own fields sometimes every 4 to 6 months because of all the change that's occurring (see: oil industry).

 

It's all too much, but we keep looking back at our own experiences and education to guide us, and we were taught "things won't change much." The trope, Status Quo is God, subtly reinforces this. Skepticism, doubt, and an inability to think exponentially properly all lead back to the same thing: people failing to see what's coming up ahead.

 

There are still so many people who probably think the 2020s and 2030s will be indistinguishable from the 2010s, and the 2010s were indistinguishable from the 2000s. 


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#19
Lastseasonsnow

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No...most company hire an accountant that can do "second" chequebook for them and that an AI cannot do, an AI is programmed to follow the law haha



#20
Alislaws

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Just 18 months ago my brother lost his job and was extremely close to paying to re-train as a lorry driver and was looking at driving schools. This would have cost him thousands to retrain. I sat him down and explained why this was a bad idea and he didn't believe me. I showed him some videos on YouTube and it opened his eyes to something he knew nothing about. He subsequently changed his mind and has started retraining as an electrician.

He now takes an interest in technology and actively strikes up conversations with me about it. We were talking about 3d printed houses the other day and when I mentioned they can 3d print concrete he couldn't get his head round how until I showed them doing it.

 

Electrician is quite a good one I think, the advantage is that an electrician can get jobs where they have to be able to go into exiting houses and office buildings and track down issues, install new stuff, remove old stuff, etc. since all the buildings are non-standard you'll need fairly general AI in order for robots to take over that job and be able to deal with plans that haven't been updated properly, things being mislabelled etc.

 

No...most company hire an accountant that can do "second" chequebook for them and that an AI cannot do, an AI is programmed to follow the law haha

 

This will only last until you can get an AI that is able to do a full audit, then everyone will have to obey the law.  :biggrin: 






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