7 replies to this topic

[RoseTylerFan]

According to Strauss-Howe generational theory, culture and politics move in 80-year cycles. The 2010s are a crisis decade, like 1930s were. Also, millennials are a team-oriented, practical "civic" generation like the WW2 veterans.

 

Then, we can look forward to 2050 as an awakening time similar to 1970. People born in the 2020s and 30s will be a prophetic, idealistic generation like the baby boomers. They will rebel against millennial values like the boomers rebelled against the WW2 generation's values. 2010s culture values maturity, teamwork and pragmatic attitudes, but the prophets will be champions of youth, individualism and idealism.

 

But what will be the awakening about? What can they rebel against? The first thing that comes to my mind is over-reliance on digital gadgets and the Internet. Individuality will be praised and social media conformity will be despised. We can also see a "back to nature" movement like the hippies had. This time, they could expand their consciousness using biotechnology rather than narcotics and Hindu mystical practices. Furthermore, the prophets of 2050 will almost certainly look down on the right-wing populist movements favoured by millennials, on the sort of politics that gave the world Trump, Brexit and the current Polish government. But they will also despise authoritarian progressivism favoured by the SJWs. If this really happens, we can see a revival of an authentic liberal movement. If Western democracy survives, indignation at tyrannical governments in the Third World could bring neoconservatism back to life.

 

I wonder what sort of religious ideas will the awakening bring. A prophetic generation always wants some sort of spirituality, but this time it could be a space-oriented, cosmic worldview like the spirituality of Olaf Stapledon.

[Jakob]

You've got your generations all mixed up. Millennials hate Trump. Wouldn't call them "practical" or "civic-minded" anyway. And the generation rebelling against the liberal orthodoxy is already here, in the form of Gen Z, and are relatively supportive of Trump.

 

Even in 2050, there will only be thousands of people in space, all of them living in cramped, modular habitats perfectly protected from the outside environment, most of them technical experts with a variety of useful skills and bound by strict laws (because Mars is a harsh place). Not the right population size or environment for space hippies.

 

Also, nobody is going to rebel against the internet and social media. It's too useful, and for every one person who's S O W O K E about the alleged evils of social media, there are 10 who happily use it with no concerns.

[zEVerzan]

I'm not a fan of Strauss-Howe generational theory. It's really vague, generations are already hard enough to define as is, much less label. You hear people say Millennials are this that and the other thing all the time.

 

The only generation that really, definitely, certainly exists is the Baby Boomers because they're so demographically significant and there was a very clearly-defined starting point to their reign of terro-er, birth range (the end of WWII).

 

Every person born is defined by a reaction to their parents and peers to an extent, that I won't deny, but millennials alone are so culturally diverse you can't pin them down.

[kjaggard]

I personally feel that the concept of generations has also changed with digital technology. That same factor that gives us things like exponentially accelerating changes in technology, singularity, longevity escape velocity, etc I think also apply to cultural developments of significance and core philosophies of populations.

 

Thus I think we are going to see a lot of confusion as some try and remain in a cyclical model of cultural development which is dependent on the cycles remaining of fixed length of time.

 

It's likely to be culturally shocking to any current thought models as we approach the cultural/philisophical escape velocity/singularity. and I can only imagine it will almost require increasing reliance on integrating information/communication technology into the psycho-social sphere of humanity and possibly into the realm of neural connectivity with technology and or one another.

[zEVerzan]

^Yeah, So-called millennials seem to baffle a lot of people who study generational theory and I think this is because the human condition is beginning to change.

[Casey]

^Yeah, So-called millennials seem to baffle a lot of people who study generational theory and I think this is because the human condition is beginning to change.

What do you mean?

[kjaggard]

Baby boomer are considered people born in the early 1940s to early 1960s. now basically two people born in 43 and 58, will have slightly different live experiences but on the whole their experiences will be very similar.

 

Gen x is considered to be from roughly 1962-1982. and I'm sorry but that's complete bullshit. anybody born in say 65 has a completely different world view and experience from somebody born in 1975-1985.

 

Gen y/ millenials. are considered anyone born from 1982- 2002 more or less. and again I say BS. Because somebody born in 82 had a completely different experience of the world and different important moments than somebody born after the internet was in the majority of homes.

 

tablets and smartphones, the second gulf war, the rise of islamic state, the 2008 economic collapse, the rise of nationalism and other isolationist and far right groups to actual political contenders for governments.

 

These are things that shape world views and life quality, and all these things are aided and spread by communication and information technology. 

 

A child born between 1975 and 1990 seems like a better cohort.

a child born between 1990 and 2002 seems like a better cohort.

a child born between 2002 and 2011 seems like a better cohort.

and a child born between 2011 and 2019 I think will seem like a good cohort.

after that will we see kids born 6 years apart having entirely different lives? Three years? Year by Year? When does it fall apart? What point do we reach a generational gap escape velocity that every persons life experiences are so vastly different and commonalities between peers of a given day, month or years fall away to the complete lack of commonality as to make cohorts meaningless?

 

Add to that an increasingly globalist tendency and the idea that contemporary Indian has more in common with 1930s-1950s US and how some communities stop in some ways while race ahead in others... and the result is a confused jumble of group identity that spans gaps in age and country and culture that has far more meaning than the concept of what year you were born.

[funkervogt]

 

According to Strauss-Howe generational theory, culture and politics move in 80-year cycles. The 2010s are a crisis decade, like 1930s were. Also, millennials are a team-oriented, practical "civic" generation like the WW2 veterans.

And how well-grounded is that generational theory? I bet there's a lot of opposition from historians and other academics. 

 

Also, if the 2010s are a "crisis decade," than it has definitely made me a stronger believer in human progress. We ain't got nuthin on the 1930s, and the 2010s are nearly over.

 

 

Then, we can look forward to 2050 as an awakening time similar to 1970. People born in the 2020s and 30s will be a prophetic, idealistic generation like the baby boomers. They will rebel against millennial values like the boomers rebelled against the WW2 generation's values. 2010s culture values maturity, teamwork and pragmatic attitudes, but the prophets will be champions of youth, individualism and idealism.

Wait, didn't the 1970s suck? Weren't they defined by stagflation, terrible fashion tastes, the failure of 1960s idealism to pan out, Arab oil shocks, Nixon's resignation, and the end of detente with the Soviets? Was there an awakening that decade, or was there actually disillusionment and pessimism? 

 

 

But what will be the awakening about? What can they rebel against? The first thing that comes to my mind is over-reliance on digital gadgets and the Internet. Individuality will be praised and social media conformity will be despised. We can also see a "back to nature" movement like the hippies had. This time, they could expand their consciousness using biotechnology rather than narcotics and Hindu mystical practices. Furthermore, the prophets of 2050 will almost certainly look down on the right-wing populist movements favoured by millennials, on the sort of politics that gave the world Trump, Brexit and the current Polish government. But they will also despise authoritarian progressivism favoured by the SJWs. If this really happens, we can see a revival of an authentic liberal movement. If Western democracy survives, indignation at tyrannical governments in the Third World could bring neoconservatism back to life.

That's a real stretch. I don't think we can predict culture that far in the future. I doubt the mainstream with forsake technology.

 

 

 

I wonder what sort of religious ideas will the awakening bring. A prophetic generation always wants some sort of spirituality, but this time it could be a space-oriented, cosmic worldview like the spirituality of Olaf Stapledon.

I recently read The Darkness and the Light. Part of it was essentially the same as Idiocracy.