What are the odds that this goes hot in the near future? (next 3 years).
100% chance within three years, without question. I'll put it at an 80% chance of starting within two. Even the major think tanks are giving a recession a higher-than-average chance of developing by 2020.
Goldman Sachs sees 36% chance of US recession in 2020
Recession 2020? Economists See High Chances
Normally, they put chances of recession around 10% in any given period since there are always certain factors in the global economy that could trigger a mild downturn. When even Goldman Sachs is starting to get bearish, it's time to start stocking up.
It's just natural. In the modern globalized economy led by America, market trends ebb and flow in such a way that guarantees at least one US recession per decade. And this has been true going back to the 1800s. It's just a cold truth of regulation and relatively government-free market trading that human irrationality will cause crashes— just look at how common recessions were in the 1800s, or how frequently crypto crashes and loses sickeningly high amounts of its value.
I'm just more of a pessimist in terms of how bad I think it will be. Most economists are wise to expect it to be mild— when we first started dipping into the depths of the Great Recession, most economists thought it wouldn't be any worse than the Dot Com Bubble crash because predicting anything worse just comes off as needless hysteria and doomsaying.
Whereas I'm just going to say right now "expect it to be at least twice to thrice as bad as the Great Recession" from a GDP drop POV— so something like a 10% to 15% drop, which is awful but still nowhere near as bad as the Great Depression.
A lot of big countries are going to start going through recession either next year or 2020 at that, and that's what I mean by "certain factors in the global economy".