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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

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#541
Sciencerocks

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Trump says he'll be 'formally terminating NAFTA'
The Associated Press
Published Saturday, December 1, 2018 10:50PM EST

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina -- U.S. President Donald Trump says he will shortly be providing formal notice to Congress that he will terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement, giving lawmakers six months to approve the replacement he recently signed.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning to Washington from Argentina, Trump says: “I will be formally terminating NAFTA shortly.”

Seeking to gain leverage with skeptical lawmakers to approve the revised trade pact, Trump says Congress “will have a choice” as it considers the agreement he signed with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Friday during the Group of 20 summit.

 

https://www.ctvnews....nafta-1.4201170



#542
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The Treasury yield curve just inverted, sounding the alarm for recession

The bond market is beginning to sound the alarm of a recession, with an inversion in U.S. Treasury yields occurring on Monday for the first time since 2007.
The yield on the 5-year Treasury note fell below the yield on the 3-year note, meaning that investors were being paid more to hold U.S. government debt maturing in three years than comparable bonds maturing in five years. It’s not the major curve inversion that investors watch for — the 2-year note holding a higher yield than the 10-year note, which has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II — but it portends that the market is headed in that direction, analysts told Yahoo Finance.
Ian Lyngen, head of united rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said the inversion of 3- and 5-year yields has strengthened his belief that an inversion of the 2-year and 10-year yield will happen in late 2018 or early 2019.
“This solidifies not only my flattening bias but I think it will lead many players in the market who [expected the yield curve to steepen] to capitulate on that,” Lyngen said.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#543
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00137988.0003.gif00137988.0003.gif00137988.0003.gif


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#544
bgates276

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Hmm, so how long does that give us before a recession actually hits? What I've been hearing is later next year. Does that sound about right? And if they know about it now, is there anything they can do to lessen the blow, or can we only brace ourselves for the impact? 



#545
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Hmm, so how long does that give us before a recession actually hits? What I've been hearing is later next year. Does that sound about right? And if they know about it now, is there anything they can do to lessen the blow, or can we only brace ourselves for the impact? 

 

 

Investing a trillion dollars in infrastructure, science and work programs could help avoid it.



#546
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https://m.youtube.co...uZqA1m_g&t=183s

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#547
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YES FUCK YES FUCK FUCK YES FUCK
 

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump agree to trade truce and removal of tariffs

The two leaders agreed to put on hold the threatened tariff increases and undo existing tariffs as of January 1, marking a significant de-escalation in trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies, according to a Chinese state media CGTN.
Details of the trade truce agreement, including what concessions China made, were not immediately available.
Dinner discussions about de-escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies lasted an hour longer than expected.
Both sides appeared satisfied at the end of the gathering, with applause heard in the room as the dinner drew a close.
As he was preparing to sit down with Trump, Xi was quoted as saying that he was “very happy” to be meeting with his US counterpart after the conclusion of the Group of 20 summit, and that he saw the occasion as an “opportunity to exchange views”.
“Xi Jinping said at the beginning that he was very happy to meet with the president,” China’s state news agency Xinhua reported shortly after the bilateral meeting began in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The world economy might actually have a chance next year.

 

Wouldn't it actually be better if it crashed sooner rather than later.  From what I understand, the more it builds up, the worse the crash will be.  I don't want it to happen, but if its inevitable, lets do it now.  I take it back, let trump be impeached and do it under Pence so that fucker isn't president a second longer than he needs to be.


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Spoiler

#548
kjaggard

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OI, THERE WENT MY POORLY TIMED OPTIMISM
 

The Treasury yield curve just inverted, sounding the alarm for recession

The bond market is beginning to sound the alarm of a recession, with an inversion in U.S. Treasury yields occurring on Monday for the first time since 2007.
The yield on the 5-year Treasury note fell below the yield on the 3-year note, meaning that investors were being paid more to hold U.S. government debt maturing in three years than comparable bonds maturing in five years. It’s not the major curve inversion that investors watch for — the 2-year note holding a higher yield than the 10-year note, which has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II — but it portends that the market is headed in that direction, analysts told Yahoo Finance.
Ian Lyngen, head of united rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said the inversion of 3- and 5-year yields has strengthened his belief that an inversion of the 2-year and 10-year yield will happen in late 2018 or early 2019.
“This solidifies not only my flattening bias but I think it will lead many players in the market who [expected the yield curve to steepen] to capitulate on that,” Lyngen said.

 

my prediction, things may look fine for a while, at least into Feb. Maybe even seeming to be headed in a posative trend. then about early to mid spring we start a slow ramp to boil. People won't notice as much because of the gradual nature of it and there will be so much glossing over and showy but small victories they will parade around.

 

I'm not sure but I feel in my gut that the pain would hit around October 2019 but by then we may well start seeing noises in the US about the choices for the 2020 election. which will rev people up into a fighting fervor long enough to get through the election without noticing their economy collapsing. then January 2021 it all comes crumbling down.


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#549
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What do I need to study in order to understand the words in that article.

The Prophet (saw) said: He who does not thank the people is not thankful to Allah.

 

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#550
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>:{(
 

Trump's 'incredible deal' with China doesn't appear to exist

For those concerned about the effects of Donald Trump’s trade war, the developments at the G-20 summit offered at least some relief. The American president was prepared to impose a sweeping new round of tariffs on China on Jan. 1, but after talks with President Xi Jinping, both countries agreed to a pause, allowing negotiations to continue.
It was, for all intents and purposes, a temporary cease fire. And yet, Trump quickly hailed the developments as “an incredible deal.”
Indeed, the Republican continued to gush about a trade breakthrough that only he could see. “Farmers will be a a very BIG and FAST beneficiary of our deal with China,” Trump wrote on Twitter, adding, “China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40%.”
As the New York Times  reported, no one seems to have any idea what the American president was talking about.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#551
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Trump Bragged About a Chinese Trade Deal That Doesn’t Seem to Exist

During last week’s G20 Summit, Donald Trump had a highly anticipated meeting with China’s Xi Jinping. The conference was to be focused on the trade war China and the United States are currently engaged in.
Following the summit, Trump was quick to call the agreement he made with Jinping, “an incredible success.” However, it now looks like China and the United States never reached a long-term deal at all.
Farmers, particularly the soybean farmers who have been hit hardest by the tariffs, were promised relief. Trump tweeted, “Farmers will be a a very BIG and FAST beneficiary of our deal with China. They intend to start purchasing agricultural product immediately.”
Trump also talked about auto tariffs, “China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40%.”
The issue is, that while China did agree to temporarily remove tariffs on American products, nothing further was promised. Even Trump’s chief advisers were confused about which deals the president was referring to.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#552
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Dow slides 200 points over worries about permanent US-China trade deal
Source: CNBC

 

Stocks fell on Tuesday as doubt about a permanent deal between the U.S. and China crept into investors' minds following a stellar rally in the previous session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 200 points, led by losses in Apple. The S&P 500 declined 0.4 percent as the technology sector lagged. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5 percent.

The U.S. and China agreed over the weekend to hold off on any additional tariffs on each other's goods on January 1, in order to allow trade talks to continue. Leaders from the two countries met over dinner at the G-20 summit in Argentina.

But discrepancies over when that truce would begin has led to confusion. While President Donald Trump's economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, told reporters Monday that the cease-fire would start from January 1, the White House later issued a corrected statement saying that the 90-day truce period would start on December 1.

 

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com...skepticism.html



#553
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Bernie Sanders

@SenSanders

A renegotiated NAFTA must stop the outsourcing of U.S. jobs, end the race to the bottom, protect the environment and lower the outrageously high price of prescription drugs.

Trump’s NAFTA 2.0 does not meet these standards and I will strongly oppose it in its current form.
5,371
7:23 AM - Nov 30, 2018



#554
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What's a yield curve inversion and why is everyone freaking out?

 

https://theweek.com/...eryone-freaking

 

Extract:

 

(The Week) The yield curve is just the difference between yields on two different bonds that have the same quality, but different maturity dates. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds minus yields on 2-year Treasury bonds is a particularly common example. (It's called a yield "curve" because of how the relationship is sometimes presented in financial analysis.)

…Usually, yields on long-term bonds are higher than yields on short-term bonds. In that case, the difference between the two is positive. But every so often, short-term yields will overtake long-term yields, which produces a negative spread. That's when the yield curve "inverts."

 

The reason everyone got excited was that the difference between 5-year and 2-year Treasuries and between 5-year and 3-year Treasuries both went negative on Monday. It was the first time either had inverted since 2007.

 

…Every time the spreads have gone negative (fallen below the thick black line in the graph) a recession (the light gray areas) has followed soon thereafter. That's true of both those spreads, and of the much more closely-watched 10-year versus 2-year spread. It's also true of the 10-year versus 1-year spread, which has gone negative before every recession since at least 1957. It really is kind of like clockwork. On top of that, there are basically no false positives.

 

…The good news, to an extent, is that inversions are also a very early warning system. Most leading indicators of recessions show up six months to a yearbefore the downturn hits. Yield curve inversions give you at minimum one year's notice, and often as much as two or more. One time in the 1960s, the 10-year minus 1-year spread went negative for almost three years before the next recession. And neither the 10-year minus 2-year spread or the 10-year minus 1-year spread have even gone negative yet.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#555
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Chinese Stocks Plummet as Arrest of  Huawei Chief Financial Officer Raises Trade Fears

 

https://techcrunch.c...ks-trade-fears/

 

Introduction:

 

(Techcrunch) A string of Chinese stocks fell hard on Thursday after the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver deepened concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions.

 

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong was off 2.76 percent as of 12:40 p.m. On the Mainland side, the CSI 300 index of the top 300 stocks trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 2.1 percent. The U.S. stock market is closed Wednesday to honor former U.S. President George H.W. Bush.

 

The crash arrived after Canadian officials detained Meng, daughter of Huawei’s founder and chief executive officer Ren Zhengfei,  on suspicion that Huawei has violated American sanctions on Iran. Meng is facing extradition to the U.S.

 

Shares of Huawei’s main rival ZTE  nose-dived nearly 6 percent in Hong Kong by midday. Meng’s news also hit the suppliers of employee-owned Huawei across the Asian stock markets. Among the worst performers is Shennan Circuit, which slipped nearly 10 percent in Shenzhen as of this writing.

 

Huawei and its main rival ZTE have been targets of the U.S. government that worries about the alleged ties between the telecom equipment makers and the Chinese government. The U.S.’s ban on ZTE sparks concerns that Huawei will face a similar fate. In April, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a seven-year ban that would restrict American component makers from selling to ZTE, which in 2017 pleaded guilty to violating sanctions on Iran and North Korea.


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#556
caltrek

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So, I got to thinking a little bit more about the article I cited in the above post.  I started to wonder what affect this might have across the globe.

 

https://www.investor...jpmorgan-stock/

 

 

(Investor's Business Daily) The Thursday Market Minute

  • Global stocks slide as investors worry the arrest of a key China business executive will unravel the recently-agreed trade truce between Washington & Beijing.
  • Huawei CFO reportedly faces extradition from Canada for allegedly violating U.S. sanctions on Iran
  • European stocks fall more than 2.2%, the most since the July 2016 Brexit vote, to a two year low as investors eye bond market developments alongside U.S.-China trade tensions.

 

 

Yet, at the end of the day, the U.S. market seems to have largely shrugged the news off:

 

 

https://www.thestree...rage-today.html

 

 

(TheStreet) 

 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE(^DJI)

24,947.67

 

V (Down)   79.40

V  (Down)     .32%

 

December 6, 2018         4:54 p.m


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#557
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New trade deal would make it harder to crack down on social media censorship
https://www.lifesite...media-censorshi

WASHINGTON, D.C., December 5, 2018 (LifeSiteNews) – Donald Trump promised that “all of our countries will benefit greatly” from the newly-signed trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, but another provision has been discovered that raises concerns about far-reaching consequences for some of the president’s most loyal supporters.

Trump, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), last week at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires.

“This is a model agreement that changes the trade landscape forever,” Trump said, and “will ensure a future of prosperity and innovation for Mexico, Canada, and the United States.” But Breitbart reveals that one of those changes threatens progress on an issue Trump himself has promised to confront: tech giants’ censorship of conservative views on their platforms.

 



#558
caltrek

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Huawei Exec Denies Violating Iran Sanctions at Bail Hearing

 

https://www.courthou...-bail-hearing/ 

 

Introduction:

 

(Courthouse News) – VANCOUVER, British Columbia– The biting December morning cold in Vancouver did little to dampen the international firestorm surrounding the news of the arrest of Huawei Technologies chief financial officer Sabrina Meng Wanzhou as she made a court appearance in B.C. Supreme Court on Friday.

 

On Dec. 1, Canadian authorities detained the Chinese telecom executive at Vancouver International Airport at the behest of the United States, which is now seeking her extradition on suspicion of violating trade sanctions on Iran.

 

Meng’s arrest drew a swift rebuke from the Chinese Embassy in Ottawa and officials on both sides of the border remain tight-lipped about the details of the case.

 

“At the request of the U.S. side, the Canadian side arrested a Chinese citizen not violating any American or Canadian law,” the embassy’s statement reads.

 

However, extradition requests made to Canada must involve so-called “dual criminality where in all cases, the conduct for which extradition is sought must be considered criminal in both the requesting country and in Canada.”

 

 

 

Stocks did drop significantly Friday, for whatever reason:

 

https://www.thestree...rage-today.html

 

 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE(^DJI)
24,388.95
v (Down)) 558.722
v (Down) 2.24%
 
Dec 7, 2018 5:07 PM EST

 

Edit:  In my initial rush to post this, I omitted the headline and link, which I have now added.


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#559
caltrek

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Trump is reportedly 'glued' to market fluctuations — and regularly expresses concern over whether his trade policies are responsible

 

https://www.alternet...ether-his-trade

 

Introduction:

 

(Alternet) Donald Trump is reportedly “glued” to the stock market and regularly consults advisors about whether his trade policies are responsible for its fluctuations, the Wall Street Journalreports.

 

Trump, according to the Journal,“often keep the TV tuned to business channels and watch the Dow’s minute-to-minute movements.” Per the Journal:

 

He would get excited about triple-digit gains in a single day and question aides about how certain actions might influence the market, people familiar with the matter said.

 

The report describes Trump’s anxious outreach to advisers, noting the president is “looking for validation his talks with China were not driving” the market’s volatility. According to the report, Trump considers the Dow Jones Industrial Average as valuable marker for his job performance as his polling numbers.

 

Even as Trump privately expresses concern over market fluctuations, he publicly signals a willingness to put his thumb on the market. On Tuesday he called himself the “Tariff Man” as he signaled an intent to take on China in its ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. The following day, Trump boasted about his “hopefully historic meeting” with President Xi Jinping of China even as investors doubted the president’s approach.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#560
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What does Meng Wanzhou's arrest mean for US-China conflict

 

https://www.aljazeer...8010817198.html

 

Extract:

 

(Al Jazeera)  Comments made on Thursday by John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, signal that the arrest may have as much to do with long-standing US grievances with Huawei and other Chinese companies as it does with concerns about possible violations of sanctions.

 

After telling a radio station that he knew of the arrest plan before the operation took place, while also declining to state whether Trump was himself aware when he met Xi, Bolton went on to accuse Chinese companies of engaging in intellectual-property theft and forced technology transfers from US firms.

 

"You should not turn a blind eye when states, as a matter of national policy, are stealing intellectual property from their competitors," he told the US-based National Public Radio. "Huawei is one company that we've been concerned about. There are others as well."

 

But Einar Tangen, a China political affairs analyst, said there are "troubling questions about the conflicting narratives and timing" of Meng's arrest.

 

"Bolton says he knew during the Argentinian summit but didn't notify Trump. [Peter] Navarro says no one knew and it was never discussed," he told Al Jazeera, referring to the White House trade adviser who has called the arrest and the trade talks "two separate events".


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






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