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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

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#621
Yuli Ban

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Italy falls into recession as eurozone economy struggle

New GDP figures show that its economy shrank by 0.2% in the final three months of 2018, a worse result than expected.
 
That follows a 0.1% contraction in July-September, meaning Italy is now officially in a technical recession.
Statistics body Istat says:

The quarter on quarter change is the result of a decrease of value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing as well as in industry and a substantial stability in services.
 
From the demand side, there is a negative contribution by the domestic component (gross of change in inventories) and a positive one by the net export component.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#622
Erowind

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/\ And so the first domino tumbles, will Germany be next? 


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#623
Sciencerocks

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South Dakota governor says Trump trade wars have 'devastated' the state

Source: Politico


South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said Friday that President Donald Trump’s trade wars have “devastated” her state, and though she agreed that countries like China were not following fair trade practices, she urged the Trump administration to quickly wrap up its trade talks there.

“South Dakota has been devastated by the trade wars that are going on,” Noem said at POLITICO’s State Solutions Conference, noting that agriculture is “by far” the largest industry in the state. The Republican governor warned that the trade woes of farmers can trickle down to the rest of the state, impacting “every main street business, everybody that has another entity out there that relies on a successful ag industry.”

President Donald Trump has engaged in a tit-for-tat war with U.S. trade partners like China and the European Union, who have levied retaliatory tariffs on major U.S. commodities like soybeans and wheat. The White House has been in talks with China for months over the issue, and faces a self-imposed deadline of next Friday to reach an agreement before tariff rates increase drastically.

Noem allowed that countries like China had engaged in unfair trade practices and said she realized the Trump administration “is trying to rectify that,” but said the clash had gone on too long.

 


Read more: https://www.politico...-dakota-1180196


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#624
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Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump 4h4 hours ago

 
 

I am pleased to report that the U.S. has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues. As a result of these very......


"What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist." - Salman Rushdie

 

“He who dares not offend cannot be honest,” — Thomas Paine


#625
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Janet Yellen says Trump has a 'lack of understanding' of Fed policies and the economy

Source: CNBC



Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has taken plenty of hits from President Donald Trump. Now she's delivering a few of her own.

In a radio interview Monday, the ex-central bank chief questioned Trump's comprehension of monetary policy as well as his understanding of basis economics.

Asked if she thinks the president "has a grasp of economic policy," Yellen flatly responded, "No, I do not."

"Well, I doubt that he would even be able to say that the Fed's goals are maximum employment and price stability, which is the goals that Congress have assigned to the Fed," she added in the interview with American Public Media's "Marketplace." "He's made comments about the Fed having an exchange-rate objective in order to support his trade plans, or possibly targeting the U.S. balance of trade. And, you know, I think comments like that shows a lack of understanding of the impact of the Fed on the economy, and appropriate policy goals."

 


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com...he-economy.html


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#626
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Trump asks China to remove tariffs on US farm products

Source: APNews.com


President Donald Trump says he has asked China to remove its tariffs on U.S. farm products such as pork and beef.

Trump tweets that removing the tariffs “is very important for our great farmers - and me!”

In July, the Trump administration gradually began slapping import taxes on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing into changing policies that hobble foreign competition and threaten U.S. technology.

Trump doesn’t mention that the Chinese-imposed tariffs are in retaliation for the actions he took.

 


Read more: https://apnews.com/c...453a6bab6eb4d44


"What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist." - Salman Rushdie

 

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#627
Yuli Ban

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India weighs retaliatory tariffs on US imports worth $10.6 billion

India is likely to impose retaliatory tariffs on $10.6 billion worth of goods imported from the US, after the Trump administration decided to scrap duty benefits on $5.6 billion worth of exports from India by May, following the collapse of trade negotiations.
In June 2018, India had decided to levy higher tariffs on products such as almonds, apples and phosphoric acid in retaliation to the US unilaterally raising customs duties on certain steel and aluminium products. However, India deferred implementation of the decision as talks were going on between the two sides for a trade package.
The next deadline for the tariffs to kick in is 1 April.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#628
Alislaws

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Trump asks China to remove tariffs on US farm products

Source: APNews.com

 

Did china just immediately say no?



#629
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Trump dealt blow as US trade deficit jumps

 

The US trade gap with the rest of the world jumped to a 10-year high of $621bn (£472.5bn) last year, dealing a blow to President Donald Trump's deficit reduction plan.
 
The trade deficit is the difference between how much goods and services the US imports from other countries and how much it exports.
 
Reducing the gap is a key plank of Mr Trump's policies.
 
But in 2018, the US exported fewer goods compared with how much it bought.
 
Mr Trump claims that the US is being "ripped off" by other nations and wants countries to lower their tariffs on US goods and buy more of them.
 
However, official data shows that while exports of US goods and services rose by $148.9bn last year, imports jumped by $217.7bn.
 
It means that the gap is the widest since 2008, when the global financial crisis hit and the US fell into recession.
 
 
 
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#630
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Turkish economy slides into recession

Turkey went into recession at the end of last year, according to the country's official statistics office.
The Turkish Statistical Institute said the economy shrank by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018, from the previous quarter.
It followed a 1.6% drop the previous quarter, making two quarters of falling growth - the definition of recession.
A trade war with the US sparked a steep fall in Turkey's currency, making imports far more expensive.
The two countries are opposed on a range of issues including how to fight the Islamic State group in Turkey's neighbour Syria, Turkey's plans to buy Russian missile defence systems and how to punish the alleged plotters of a failed coup in Turkey in 2016 which attempted to topple President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey also wants the extradition of a Turkish cleric now living in the US who it has charged with terrorism and espionage


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#631
Yuli Ban

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U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2007

The Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since the last crisis Friday, triggering the first reliable market signal of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle.
The gap between the three-month and 10-year yields vanished as a surge of buying pushed the latter to a 14-month low of 2.416 percent. Inversion is considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S., within roughly the next 18 months.
Demand for government bonds gained momentum Wednesday, when U.S. central bank policy makers lowered both their growth projections and their interest-rate outlook. The majority of officials now envisages no hikes this year, down from a median call of two at their December meeting. Traders took that dovish shift as their cue to dig into positions for a Fed easing cycle, pricing in a cut by the end of 2020 and a one-in-two chance of a reduction as soon as this year.


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#632
Yuli Ban

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$1.3 trillion and 7,000 finance jobs are leaving Britain because of Brexit

Banks and other financial companies are shifting more assets and jobs out of the United Kingdom as the country lurches towards Brexit.
Financial services companies in Britain have announced plans to move £1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) into the European Union, according to consultancy EY. That's up from an earlier estimate of £800 billion ($1.1 trillion).
Many banks have set up new offices in Germany, France, Ireland and other EU countries to safeguard their regional business after Brexit. That means they also have to move substantial assets there to satisfy EU regulators.
Other companies are moving assets to protect their clients against the wild market swings and sudden changes in regulation that could accompany the rupture between Britain and its biggest trading partner.

No-deal Brexit happens next week and no one knows if the EU will stop it


The financial services industry accounts for roughly 12% of the UK economy, and employs 2.2 million people.


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#633
Alislaws

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/\ And so the first domino tumbles, will Germany be next? 

I was thinking, we have seen a lot of things like this, and then asked ourselves if this is the domino. But I'm pretty sure that actually, the world economy works like JENGA. 

 

So each of these is "another brick gone from the tower" but we can keep taking out bricks for a while with the tower getting less and less stable, but it still stays upthat's why we have been forecasting issues for years now, and not seeing the great collapse materialise. 

 

The world economy has stayed up, but there are a lot less bricks in the tower now than there were 5 years ago, and at some point, (unless someone starts putting bricks back in!), its going to go. 


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#634
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the domino example is not meant to be about what destabalizes things. It's about how we establish orderly rows of things and the domino the speak of is the one at the end of the chain that falls over or is pushed to knock over the next in the chain and start the chain reaction.

 

Jenga is something where you pull the right block and all at once the whole thing fails, dominoes are set up in a way that one goes down taking another with it which takes another etc in a progression each standing entity destabalized by it's neighbor in a large distributed pattern.

 

but if you've ever set up a domino chain sometimes you're half finished building and somewhere one falls over taking out everything. sometimes you finish building and start it only for it to get the first few but fail after that to knock the rest of them down. and if you build a long enough chain and it gets triggered early, you can intervene ahead of the progression and save most of it.

 

so while I get where you are coming from I feel like the domino idea is fairly apt.


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#635
Alislaws

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Once the first domino goes down the last domino is going down, its just a matter of time. It implies that once the first domino falls we are guaranteed to have a recession, which is not really the case, or we would be able to predict them more easily. 

 

Dominos encompasses the chain reaction effect well. But fails to show the "straw that breaks the camels back" effect where a sort of critical mass is needed before it all comes tumbling down. 

 

We should start two competing schools of economic thought and spend the rest of our lives writing incredibly complex sounding arguments on this subject. As long as we never mention "dominos" and "Jenga" in the scientific literature we would totally get away with it. 

 

Eventually we could come up with a grand unified theory of economics which is basically that the economy is like a room full of jenga towers each set up so that it takes down its neighbours when it falls. 



#636
Yuli Ban

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Wall Street braced for ‘earnings recession’ as margins fall

US profit margins are on track to suffer their first fall since 2015, as companies increasingly struggle to pass on costs of rising labour, transportation and raw materials to customers.
 
A record 58 per cent of respondents to the latest National Association for Business Economics survey of business conditions reported rising wage costs, while only 19 per cent reported that they had increased the prices they charged customers.
 
Analysts’ consensus forecast is for net profit margins to contract by 40 basis points in 2019, to 10.9 per cent, according to Goldman Sachs. Some on Wall Street are now bracing for an “earnings recession”.
 
The retreat from the post-crisis peak margins reached in 2018 signals a turn in the profit cycle that has powered the US market’s bull run and undermines an important prop for equity valuations ahead of the upcoming first-quarter reporting season.
 
It also marks a reversal from the confidence many executives had expressed last year that customers would continue to absorb rising wage and freight costs in a tight labour market and the impact tariff battles have had on raw material prices.
 
“We definitely are declining on margins,” said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, who said S&P 500 margins had not seen such a drop since the fourth quarter of 2015.
 
As a result, more companies may have to announce lower earnings guidance to “get ahead of the bad news” before the first-quarter earnings season peaks in April, he said, but “April is definitely going to be a test month”.


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#637
Yuli Ban

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Recession Worries Move to DEFCON 3

A month ago, I wrote that it’s not yet time to worry about a recession. Since then, economic indicators have gotten a little worse. It’s still not time to panic — but there’s reason to be a little more worried.
What’s changed in the last month? Two main things: We got a weak jobs report for February after several strong reports, and the Treasury yield curve inverted. That is to say: The interest rate on three-month government bonds is now higher than the interest rate on ten-year government bonds.
Inversion is unusual — normally, longer bonds pay higher yields than shorter bonds — and it tends to happen when market participants expect the Fed to need to cut interest rates in the future. Typically, if the Fed is going to need to cut rates, that’s because the economy is going to be weak. So yield-curve inversion, seemingly a dull technical matter, can be a strong predictor of a coming recession.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#638
Yuli Ban

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China suffers 'natural' slowdown

China's economic slowdown is a "natural" consequence of years of breakneck growth, Zhu Min, a former deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund, told The Nikkei.
The world's second largest economy is struggling with deceleration and an acrimonious trade fight that has economists and policymakers around the world asking whether the country's trade-driven growth can return to a clear upward trajectory.


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#639
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D3EhUX2W0AAVUg7.png


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#640
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Trump Threatens to Close Entire Mexican Border

Instant Recession If Carried Out

Trump threatens to close the border in a Tweet complaining "‘Mexico has for many years made a fortune off of the US".
 
Once again Trump puts his trade ignorance on display whether you agree with him about the wall for other reasons.

Idle Threat?
 
I don't know.
 
I do know that shutting the border would be damn foolish.
 
Many businesses get parts from Mexico. In addition, many workers cross the border legally every day to work in the US.
 
The border between El Paso, Texas, and Juarez, Mexico comes to mind.

PwgTUTr.jpg



What the fuck does he think he’s doing?


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