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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

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#641
Yuli Ban

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JCPenney, Payless, LifeWay announce 3,000+ combined store closures

More than 41,000 people have lost their jobs in the retail industry so far this year — a 92 percent spike in layoffs since the same time last year, according to a new report.
And the layoffs continue to mount, with JCPenney announcing this week it would be closing 18 stores in addition to three previously announced closures, as part of a “standard annual review.”
 
Retail job cuts for January and February total 41,201, said research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in a new survey, including nationwide retailers such as Payless and Charlotte Russe.
“This is significant, and marks an acceleration of store closures and job cuts in the near term," said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “Retail is ground zero for seeing the shifts of change in our lives.”
Lifeway Christian Bookstores announced last week it would be closing the doors of all 170 brick and mortar stores, in a pivot to focusing on digital and e-commerce.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#642
Yuli Ban

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WhatDePhuck

Its not just the UK. Here in the US the economy just got a massive kick in the balls last month.

I own a small logistics company and Trumps trade war has been catastrophic. Certain kinds of freight have dropped more than 60% since this time last year. That is from DAT, the firm that tracks all freight prices.

Not just that, but Farmers are suffering far higher bankruptcy rates than the 2008 recession. and to make it worse, the government wont insure the ruined crops that were just flooded because they were still in storage and had not been shipped because of the trade war.

Not just that, but we only made 20,000 jobs last month, which is a tenth of the 199,000 that Obama averaged.

The only reason this didnt happen earlier is because Trump dumped a trillion dollars in the economy, which produced less than a million jobs. A trillion is a million millions. He spent a million dollars per job. More than most of them will make in 20 years.

These right wing xenophobic dotards in both the US and UK are destroying our countries.

Its not foreigners ruining our countries, its the very people blaming them.

 

 

Yuli-Ban
Meanwhile, China's stock market recovered all their 2018 losses and their manufacturing is booming. Likewise, all those ecstatic reports from neoliberal news sites about how China is getting crushed by the trade war have mysteriously disappeared and even a literal minor 300 point rise in the Dow Jones is being celebrated as if Trump just fathered the messiah.
 
It's almost as if China spent 2018 pricing in the trade war and cracking down on inefficiencies in their economy and we assumed we won because corporations used that free trillion dollars to buy back their own stocks, creating a massive bubble that is starting to burst. Gasp.

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#643
Yuli Ban

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Food prices to rise 10%, police unable to protect public and worst recession in decade, UK's top civil servant warns cabinet in leaked no-deal analysis

Britain's most senior civil servant has privately warned cabinet ministers of the dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, told ministers that leaving the EU without an agreement will result in food prices rising by ten per cent, the police being unable to protect people and the economy suffering the worst recession in a decade.
Direct rule would have to be restored in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007 and the government would come under pressure to bail out companies that had gone bust, he warned. 
In an explosive 14-page briefing sent to every cabinet minister and obtained by the Daily Mail, Sir Mark said leaving without an agreement would make Britain "less safe" and see pressure on law enforcement authorities "enormously increase".


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#644
Yuli Ban

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The recession in German manufacturing is worse than we thought

The German manufacturing sector "is clearly in deep recession" and is laying off workers, analysts said in notes today on data from the IHS Markit purchasing managers index, a measure of sentiment among factory executives.
Today's data shows that manufacturing is falling even faster than feared from estimates published a week or so ago.
Meanwhile, unemployment in Italy has started to rise, up 0.6 percentage points since late last year to 10.7%, after years of decline.
The collapse of German manufacturing is being mirrored across the continent. The average for the entire eurozone — the 19 countries that use the euro as a currency — is now in negative territory. Of the four largest economies, only Spain is in positive territory.
The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Claus Vistesen called the numbers "horrific" and "horrible" in a note he sent to clients on Monday.


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#645
Yuli Ban

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There’s Now a Potential 95% Chance of a Global Earnings Recession By Late 2019

I first formed my “there will be a global earnings recession in late 2019” hypothesis when I saw the South Korean Export Growth indicator (aka SKEG) plunge in May 2018.
And ever since then – I’ve continually added new evidence and information – re-calculating the value of my hypothesis.
By October – I firmly believed there was an 85% chance there would be a global earnings recession over the next six-through-twelve months.
And by December – this number was at 90% (giving me a 10% margin for error).
So – what’s the value now?
It’s at 95%. . .
Now – I don’t usually put a hypothesis value so high (I prefer to have a thick margin for error).But all the information and evidence is hard to ignore. 
For instance – the recently updated SKEG chart (which I wrote about two weeks ago) shows that South Korean export growth has collapsed much more since May 2018’s sharp plunge.
(note the red-line highlighting current South Korean Exports Growth year-over-year).
Thus according to SKEG – which has held accurate yet again – global earnings could sink -20% over the next year. (Remember – over the last 25 years, the direction of the SKEG has almost perfectly preceded global earnings within a 12-month lag.)

Also – keep in mind that since I first published my article discussing the potential earnings recession (May 2018) – corporations world wide have already seen their earnings deteriorate...

Ue0zCJP.png


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#646
Yuli Ban

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Germany factory orders just fell off a cliff.
 

German factory orders post biggest slump in two years

German factory orders have deteriorated at the fastest pace since the financial crisis as the sector suffered from rising Brexit uncertainties and a slowdown in the global economy. New factory orders fell 4.2 per cent in February from the previous month as foreign orders slumped, according to provisional data from Germany’s statistics office released on Thursday. The drop was the biggest fall since January 2017, according to Factset. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a small month-on-month rise. On a year-on-year basis orders collapsed by 8.4 per cent, the largest contraction since 2009. New export orders fell at a double-digit rate. The release was “a mini-review of the horror-show in 2008,” said Claus Vistesen, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “German manufacturing is in the middle of a full-blown recession.”


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#647
Erowind

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Debt based economies are honestly moronic. If we lived within our means and only budgeted for excess and stored value during boom times we could actually maintain quality of life during bust times. I'm not going to claim that a market socialist economy wouldn't have recessions. Just that they would be less volitile and the vast majority of people wouldn't experience any loss. Imagine if the profit and public funds that go into executive pockets instead were split between the workers and a public safety net. During recession coops could lower production and subsist off of their excess income from years prior while the government directly stimulates the economy with stored wealth.

Recessions would also be much less volitile if we didn't overproduce as much and focused on needs that have measurable demand. I'm not saying we could guess exactly or that we should try to plan the economy. I am saying that it makes zero sense to be producing millions of excess Funko Pop figures no one buys when people need food. I'm not saying we shouldn't produce luxuries either. But when the funko pops stop selling stop bloody producing them. The capitalist apologists here are probably thinking, "what the hell is he on about? Companies already do that no?" No they actually don't. I don't even need to give you a detailed explanation, go outside and observe it yourself. During every holiday season capitalist inefficiency is very visible. Go to the store and look at all the useless holiday themed junk that never sells. Now apply that same observation to the rest of the economy and you'll notice the problem. Inefficiency is more visible during the holidays but it is always happening.
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Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#648
Yuli Ban

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Trump threatens to tariff EU cheese, wine, helicopters, over Airbus subsidies

The Trump administration is proposing tariffs on new passenger helicopters, various cheeses and wines, ski suits and certain motorcycles in response to harm the U.S. says is being caused by European Union subsidies to Boeing Co. rival Airbus SE.
In issuing the list, which includes many other items, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office cited the World Trade Organization’s finding that the aid to Airbus has “repeatedly” caused “adverse effects to the United States,” the USTR said in a statement Monday evening.
The Trump administration said, starting Monday, it is beginning a process under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to “identify products of the EU to which additional duties may be applied until the EU removes those subsidies.”
The threatened tariffs on some $11 billion in imports from the EU would be implemented only after the WTO gave the final go-ahead this summer, the administration said — a rare show of faith in an institution that Trump himself has assailed.


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#649
Yuli Ban

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Europe slams ‘exaggerated’ US tariff threat and prepares to retaliate

  • The EU has hit back at new U.S. proposals to target European goods with tariffs, following a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling over subsidies for Airbus.
  • Trade tensions between the EU and U.S. flared Monday after the U.S. said it’s considering $11 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs on a range of goods in response to illegal subsidies the EU granted to the aerospace firm.
  • Brussels signaled that it is ready to retaliate, if necessary.

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#650
Yuli Ban

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So if aiming one revolver at our head and pulling the trigger wasn't fun enough, now we're gonna empty two revolvers into our skulls AT THE SAME TIME

But that's a good thing because the bullets will fly into the other gun and we'll end up with two new bullets we didn't have before!!!! MAGA


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#651
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

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EvJMFGU.jpg


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#652
Sciencerocks

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U.S.-China trade deal is nearly here. What we know so far shows Trump is the biggest winner.

After months of stop-and-go negotiations with China the talks are said to be in the final rounds, with a new trade deal anticipated in the next few weeks.

While few details are known, what’s clear is that on the U.S. side, there will essentially be one big winner in the deal: President Donald Trump, who will claim it as a political victory.

The big selling point for the deal is that over the next six years, China will purchase up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. goods, translating to an additional $30 billion a year in American agricultural exports. That period covers a second potential term for Trump, who needs a policy win for his reelection campaign. He’s certainly out to sell this deal as a win, even if talks collapse and there ends up being no deal.

 

https://thinkprogres...l-2bf764e3ca46/


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