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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

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#641
Yuli Ban

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JCPenney, Payless, LifeWay announce 3,000+ combined store closures

More than 41,000 people have lost their jobs in the retail industry so far this year — a 92 percent spike in layoffs since the same time last year, according to a new report.
And the layoffs continue to mount, with JCPenney announcing this week it would be closing 18 stores in addition to three previously announced closures, as part of a “standard annual review.”
 
Retail job cuts for January and February total 41,201, said research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in a new survey, including nationwide retailers such as Payless and Charlotte Russe.
“This is significant, and marks an acceleration of store closures and job cuts in the near term," said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “Retail is ground zero for seeing the shifts of change in our lives.”
Lifeway Christian Bookstores announced last week it would be closing the doors of all 170 brick and mortar stores, in a pivot to focusing on digital and e-commerce.


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#642
Yuli Ban

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WhatDePhuck

Its not just the UK. Here in the US the economy just got a massive kick in the balls last month.

I own a small logistics company and Trumps trade war has been catastrophic. Certain kinds of freight have dropped more than 60% since this time last year. That is from DAT, the firm that tracks all freight prices.

Not just that, but Farmers are suffering far higher bankruptcy rates than the 2008 recession. and to make it worse, the government wont insure the ruined crops that were just flooded because they were still in storage and had not been shipped because of the trade war.

Not just that, but we only made 20,000 jobs last month, which is a tenth of the 199,000 that Obama averaged.

The only reason this didnt happen earlier is because Trump dumped a trillion dollars in the economy, which produced less than a million jobs. A trillion is a million millions. He spent a million dollars per job. More than most of them will make in 20 years.

These right wing xenophobic dotards in both the US and UK are destroying our countries.

Its not foreigners ruining our countries, its the very people blaming them.

 

 

Yuli-Ban
Meanwhile, China's stock market recovered all their 2018 losses and their manufacturing is booming. Likewise, all those ecstatic reports from neoliberal news sites about how China is getting crushed by the trade war have mysteriously disappeared and even a literal minor 300 point rise in the Dow Jones is being celebrated as if Trump just fathered the messiah.
 
It's almost as if China spent 2018 pricing in the trade war and cracking down on inefficiencies in their economy and we assumed we won because corporations used that free trillion dollars to buy back their own stocks, creating a massive bubble that is starting to burst. Gasp.

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#643
Yuli Ban

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Food prices to rise 10%, police unable to protect public and worst recession in decade, UK's top civil servant warns cabinet in leaked no-deal analysis

Britain's most senior civil servant has privately warned cabinet ministers of the dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, told ministers that leaving the EU without an agreement will result in food prices rising by ten per cent, the police being unable to protect people and the economy suffering the worst recession in a decade.
Direct rule would have to be restored in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007 and the government would come under pressure to bail out companies that had gone bust, he warned. 
In an explosive 14-page briefing sent to every cabinet minister and obtained by the Daily Mail, Sir Mark said leaving without an agreement would make Britain "less safe" and see pressure on law enforcement authorities "enormously increase".


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#644
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The recession in German manufacturing is worse than we thought

The German manufacturing sector "is clearly in deep recession" and is laying off workers, analysts said in notes today on data from the IHS Markit purchasing managers index, a measure of sentiment among factory executives.
Today's data shows that manufacturing is falling even faster than feared from estimates published a week or so ago.
Meanwhile, unemployment in Italy has started to rise, up 0.6 percentage points since late last year to 10.7%, after years of decline.
The collapse of German manufacturing is being mirrored across the continent. The average for the entire eurozone — the 19 countries that use the euro as a currency — is now in negative territory. Of the four largest economies, only Spain is in positive territory.
The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Claus Vistesen called the numbers "horrific" and "horrible" in a note he sent to clients on Monday.


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#645
Yuli Ban

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There’s Now a Potential 95% Chance of a Global Earnings Recession By Late 2019

I first formed my “there will be a global earnings recession in late 2019” hypothesis when I saw the South Korean Export Growth indicator (aka SKEG) plunge in May 2018.
And ever since then – I’ve continually added new evidence and information – re-calculating the value of my hypothesis.
By October – I firmly believed there was an 85% chance there would be a global earnings recession over the next six-through-twelve months.
And by December – this number was at 90% (giving me a 10% margin for error).
So – what’s the value now?
It’s at 95%. . .
Now – I don’t usually put a hypothesis value so high (I prefer to have a thick margin for error).But all the information and evidence is hard to ignore. 
For instance – the recently updated SKEG chart (which I wrote about two weeks ago) shows that South Korean export growth has collapsed much more since May 2018’s sharp plunge.
(note the red-line highlighting current South Korean Exports Growth year-over-year).
Thus according to SKEG – which has held accurate yet again – global earnings could sink -20% over the next year. (Remember – over the last 25 years, the direction of the SKEG has almost perfectly preceded global earnings within a 12-month lag.)

Also – keep in mind that since I first published my article discussing the potential earnings recession (May 2018) – corporations world wide have already seen their earnings deteriorate...

Ue0zCJP.png


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#646
Yuli Ban

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Germany factory orders just fell off a cliff.
 

German factory orders post biggest slump in two years

German factory orders have deteriorated at the fastest pace since the financial crisis as the sector suffered from rising Brexit uncertainties and a slowdown in the global economy. New factory orders fell 4.2 per cent in February from the previous month as foreign orders slumped, according to provisional data from Germany’s statistics office released on Thursday. The drop was the biggest fall since January 2017, according to Factset. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a small month-on-month rise. On a year-on-year basis orders collapsed by 8.4 per cent, the largest contraction since 2009. New export orders fell at a double-digit rate. The release was “a mini-review of the horror-show in 2008,” said Claus Vistesen, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “German manufacturing is in the middle of a full-blown recession.”


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#647
Erowind

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Debt based economies are honestly moronic. If we lived within our means and only budgeted for excess and stored value during boom times we could actually maintain quality of life during bust times. I'm not going to claim that a market socialist economy wouldn't have recessions. Just that they would be less volitile and the vast majority of people wouldn't experience any loss. Imagine if the profit and public funds that go into executive pockets instead were split between the workers and a public safety net. During recession coops could lower production and subsist off of their excess income from years prior while the government directly stimulates the economy with stored wealth.

Recessions would also be much less volitile if we didn't overproduce as much and focused on needs that have measurable demand. I'm not saying we could guess exactly or that we should try to plan the economy. I am saying that it makes zero sense to be producing millions of excess Funko Pop figures no one buys when people need food. I'm not saying we shouldn't produce luxuries either. But when the funko pops stop selling stop bloody producing them. The capitalist apologists here are probably thinking, "what the hell is he on about? Companies already do that no?" No they actually don't. I don't even need to give you a detailed explanation, go outside and observe it yourself. During every holiday season capitalist inefficiency is very visible. Go to the store and look at all the useless holiday themed junk that never sells. Now apply that same observation to the rest of the economy and you'll notice the problem. Inefficiency is more visible during the holidays but it is always happening.
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#648
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Trump threatens to tariff EU cheese, wine, helicopters, over Airbus subsidies

The Trump administration is proposing tariffs on new passenger helicopters, various cheeses and wines, ski suits and certain motorcycles in response to harm the U.S. says is being caused by European Union subsidies to Boeing Co. rival Airbus SE.
In issuing the list, which includes many other items, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office cited the World Trade Organization’s finding that the aid to Airbus has “repeatedly” caused “adverse effects to the United States,” the USTR said in a statement Monday evening.
The Trump administration said, starting Monday, it is beginning a process under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to “identify products of the EU to which additional duties may be applied until the EU removes those subsidies.”
The threatened tariffs on some $11 billion in imports from the EU would be implemented only after the WTO gave the final go-ahead this summer, the administration said — a rare show of faith in an institution that Trump himself has assailed.


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#649
Yuli Ban

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Europe slams ‘exaggerated’ US tariff threat and prepares to retaliate

  • The EU has hit back at new U.S. proposals to target European goods with tariffs, following a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling over subsidies for Airbus.
  • Trade tensions between the EU and U.S. flared Monday after the U.S. said it’s considering $11 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs on a range of goods in response to illegal subsidies the EU granted to the aerospace firm.
  • Brussels signaled that it is ready to retaliate, if necessary.

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#650
Yuli Ban

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So if aiming one revolver at our head and pulling the trigger wasn't fun enough, now we're gonna empty two revolvers into our skulls AT THE SAME TIME

But that's a good thing because the bullets will fly into the other gun and we'll end up with two new bullets we didn't have before!!!! MAGA


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#651
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EvJMFGU.jpg


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#652
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U.S.-China trade deal is nearly here. What we know so far shows Trump is the biggest winner.

After months of stop-and-go negotiations with China the talks are said to be in the final rounds, with a new trade deal anticipated in the next few weeks.

While few details are known, what’s clear is that on the U.S. side, there will essentially be one big winner in the deal: President Donald Trump, who will claim it as a political victory.

The big selling point for the deal is that over the next six years, China will purchase up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. goods, translating to an additional $30 billion a year in American agricultural exports. That period covers a second potential term for Trump, who needs a policy win for his reelection campaign. He’s certainly out to sell this deal as a win, even if talks collapse and there ends up being no deal.

 

https://thinkprogres...l-2bf764e3ca46/



#653
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Farmer Income Drops Most Since 2016 as Trade War Losses Mount

Source: Bloomberg

By Mike Dorning and Katia Dmitrieva
April 29, 2019, 10:50 AM PDT


Personal income for farmers fell by the most in three years in the first quarter, as losses to U.S. agriculture mount from President Donald Trump’s trade wars.

The Commerce Department on Monday cited the steep decline in farm proprietors’ income as a key factor weighing on the nation’s overall personal income growth in March, even though agricultural producers represent only about 2 percent of total employed Americans.

The report provided fresh evidence of the growing financial strain on U.S. farmers hit by the trade war, low commodity prices and a series of natural disasters including spring floods in the Midwest. With rural voters a key part of Trump’s electoral coalition, it also underscores the political pressure to conclude the China trade war as U.S. negotiators begin another round of talks in Beijing this week.

One-time subsidy payments from the Trump administration to compensate producers for some of their trade-war losses helped prop up farm income in the previous quarter, but earnings plunged by an annualized $11.8 billion in the January to March period, according to seasonally adjusted data. On Monday, Larry Kudlow, President Trump’s top economic adviser, said the White House is prepared to do more to help agriculture.

 

Read more: https://www.bloomber...-trade-war-pain



#654
Yuli Ban

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If we get a recession, it may lead to deflation. The thing is, interest rates are still very low and Trump stubbornly refuses to have them raised because he needs the economy to still look good while he's in office. It's at the point where he's willing to engage in Soviet tactics to keep the economy afloat long enough and even wants interest rates to be dropped during a time when the economy is dangerously overheating. So when the recession does hit, the Fed won't be able to cut interest rates by any significant amount. Deflation may occur, and since interest rates are too low to be sustainable, the Fed will have to go into negative territory. 
 
As I've said elsewhere, negative interest rates are like the economic equivalent of a star starting to burn helium rather than hydrogen. Europe and Japan using negative interest rates and maintaining economic growth is more like if that star suddenly got a small injection of hydrogen to keep it going just a bit longer. 
The open market operations would force them to print much more money, but by that point, they'd need to get the Treasury involved and that would require congressional approval. And once it gets to that point, the economy is basically in a depression.  In this case, it's not a star as much as it is an iceberg. And the people piloting the ship want to crash the ship because they get money out of it and, simultaneously, they are so ideologically fanatical about plutocratic capitalism that they don't believe ice exists in the first place and any suggestion it does is either Cultural Marxism or scientific socialist defeatism. So they don't believe the ship will crash, but if it does, they're going to get rich selling the lifeboats and buying the personal stories of survivors and getting all the insurance money.
 
And when you ask them how the last ship sunk, it was because they didn't have a bigger ship and because the passengers of the ship weren't loyal enough to the captain and these things just happen from time to time.

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#655
Sciencerocks

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Trump says he will increase tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday as he complains about pace of talks

 

Source: Washington Post


 

President Trump said on Sunday that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports on Friday, unexpectedly setting what appears to be a new deadline to produce a comprehensive deal or trigger an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. Just days before Chinese negotiators are scheduled to arrive in Washington, the president threatened to increase existing tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent and levy a new 25 percent fee on all remaining Chinese imports.

In a pair of tweets, Trump accused China of trying to “renegotiate” terms of an agreement that negotiators have been racing to finish for the past five months. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to arrive in Washington on May 8 for what had been billed as potentially the concluding rounds of bargaining.

U.S. officials have said they hoped to wrap up a sweeping deal soon, but Trump’s abrupt intervention adds a volatile new element to the end game. “The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!” the president tweeted shortly after noon on Sunday.

The office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, had no immediate response to a request for comment.

 

Read more: https://www.washingt...9013_story.html


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#656
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U.S. to levy tariff on imported Mexican tomatoes in trade spat

Source: Reuters



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department said on Tuesday it will begin imposing a 17.5 percent tariff on imported Mexican tomatoes, but said it is optimistic that a deal can be reached to extend a 2013 agreement that suspended a U.S. anti-dumping investigation.

“The Department of Commerce remains committed to ensuring that American domestic industries are protected from unfair trading practices,” Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in a statement. “We remain optimistic that there will be a negotiated solution.”

The tariff will go into effect in about a week.

Mexican Deputy Economy Minister Luz Maria de la Mora said Monday that U.S. consumers will face financial impacts after they could not reach agreement.

 


-snip-

BUSINESS NEWS MAY 7, 2019 / 5:20 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
David Shepardson
3 MIN READ


Read more: https://www.reuters....t-idUSKCN1SD2JR



#657
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Trump Says U.S. Will Purchase Crops to Offset China Losses

Source: Bloomberg News



President Donald Trump said that the U.S. will boost its purchases of domestic farm products for humanitarian aid in an effort to offset lost demand from China as trade tensions flare between the nations.

Trump said on Twitter on Friday that the U.S. will use its money from the tariffs to buy American agricultural products “in larger amounts than China ever did” and send it to “poor & starving countries” for humanitarian aid. The president indicated potential purchases of $15 billion from farmers. Soybean and grain futures held mostly steady after the announcements.

“In the meantime we will continue to negotiate with China in the hopes that they do not again try to redo deal!” Trump said on Twitter. “Our farmers will do better, faster and starving nations can now be helped.”

Soybean and grain futures plunged this week as U.S. trade talks faltered with China, the world’s top oilseed buyer, and the Asian nation vowed retaliation as the U.S. boosted tariffs on $200 billion in goods. On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybean, corn and wheat futures for July delivery were little changed at 8 a.m. local time.

 


Read more: https://www.bloomber...es?srnd=premium



#658
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Despite efforts by both sides to come up with a deal, it seems the US and China remain locked in a trade war. That doesn’t mean some sort of temporary truce won’t be reached (each side has an interest in raising the stakes to gain leverage over negotiations), but it does mean that the underlying trade tensions between the two countries are not going away anytime soon.
 
The Trump administration has increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and is planning to impose tariffs on another $300 billion worth. Although both economies will be damaged, the US won’t be hurt nearly as much as China in the trade war. That’s because China is more economically dependent on the US than the US is on China. The US has more cards with which to deal with.
 
Unlike with past tariff hikes, China hasn’t delivered an immediate countermeasure, even though it said it would. It could be that China was simply unprepared for the sudden move by the US and needs time to craft a response. Or that it wants to leave space for negotiation. Or that China is running out of ways it can inflict an equivalent punch. Either way, it won’t stop China from finding other ways it can strike the US, with whatever it can muster. China can’t afford to completely back down and make itself appear weak.
 
Recent environmental crises have further weakened China’s position in the trade war. African swine fever has hit Chinese pig farms real hard, forcing China to import more pork, which the US could use to its advantage. If that weren’t enough, "armyworms" have started to infest crops in several Chinese provinces: https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html. These pests spread quickly and are extremely difficult to eradicate. Their presence usually results in major crop failures and serious economic damage. One of these crops, soybeans, is a major Chinese import from the US and has been a target of counter-duties.
 
The convergence of all these crises puts the Chinese populace under enormous stress. Before the trade war started, China was already dealing with the social fallout of a slowing economy. Now it’s locked in a major dispute with its largest trading partner. It’s on the cusp of a food crisis. And the Chinese government has clamped down real hard on Chinese society to keep the country held together. There’s only so much pressure the Chinese population can take before things become explosive

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#659
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I've been trying to write and self-publish a book , and I've been writing it for a year now at least but this past week I've broken a lot of barriers in where it's going and how it's going to feel and look like so I'm a lot more excited about it than when I once was.


America also has failing crops in certain regions thanks to foreign pests like the brown marmorated stinkbug.

America's largest trading partner is the inverse, China.

America's population is also clearly on the verge of becoming explosive. The real unemployment rate is still 7.3% with wages stagnant for half a century and societal dread in the form of shootings, riots and mass protests every few months now. Combine that with the worst inequality since the guided age and things are not looking bright for status quo.

The US economy is also on the verge of recession, possibly a major recession, depression or even panic. This is the longest bull market in US history and the market can't grow exponentially forever. Treasury bonds have inverted twice and interest rates in the Eurozone are abysmal with the EU's interest rate at a wopping 0, 0.25 and -0.40% With the U.S lagging not that far behind at a sickly 2.5%. Quantitive easing won't work again. The analogues to the great depression and roaring 20s are glaringly apparent here and with the economy as global as it is no one will make it out unscathed when things start tumbling. The next recession might not be the big crisis, but it's coming.

And hey, if we want to listen to the heterodox economists we'd also notice that the rate of profit has been in a steady fall since at least the 1880s. Capitalism can only be in a cycle of crisis and boom for so long before the forces of history take their toll.

Edit if I remember I'll make a more detailed rate of profit post.
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#660
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America's population is also clearly on the verge of becoming explosive. The real unemployment rate is still 7.3% with wages stagnant for half a century and societal dread in the form of shootings, riots and mass protests every few months now. Combine that with the worst inequality since the guided age and things are not looking bright for status quo.

The US economy is also on the verge of recession, possibly a major recession, depression or even panic. This is the longest bull market in US history and the market can't grow exponentially forever. Treasury bonds have inverted twice and interest rates in the Eurozone are abysmal with the EU's interest rate at a wopping 0, 0.25 and -0.40% With the U.S lagging not that far behind at a sickly 2.5%. Quantitive easing won't work again. The analogues to the great depression and roaring 20s are glaringly apparent here and with the economy as global as it is no one will make it out unscathed when things start tumbling. The next recession might not be the big crisis, but it's coming.

And hey, if we want to listen to the heterodox economists we'd also notice that the rate of profit has been in a steady fall since at least the 1880s. Capitalism can only be in a cycle of crisis and boom for so long before the forces of history take their toll.

Edit if I remember I'll make a more detailed rate of profit post.

 

A 7.3% U-6 number is pretty good though? Looking back towards the 90's (and finding u-6 data is a huge pain that far back for some reason), the U-6 was at or below 7.3% from October 1999 to Feb 2001 and that's the only period it was below that as far back as Feb 1994. The U-6 is lagging U-5 and U-3 compared to that period though I guess. U-5 and U-3 are at lows compared to all months since 1994, so there's certainly room for improvement.

 

Not sure what you mean by riots and major protests being common though the last one's I remember were a few years ago.


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