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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

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#661
Erowind

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I should preface this. Economically I'm a socialist. So a 7.3% figure is still really bad to me and entirely unacceptable. By definition a portion of the population must be unemployed (and suffering) in order for there to be a labour market for capitalists to exploit. I understand that true full employment isn't possible without fallible economic planning. However, 7.3% is far too high in a country without good social safety nets like in the United States. 

 

With that out of the way, you're right I didn't give good context. Most of the jobs created since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis have been in low paying industries. 

 

https://www.axios.co...6ae09c296f.html

 

Which means that most people who lost their jobs during the recession who have returned to the labour force now have a significantly lower quality of life then they previously did. Meaning that the unemployment rate the media is raving about is missing context (possibly deliberately) and the true state of the economy when compared to before the recession is actually sickly. We haven't recovered nearly as much as folks think we have. Combine that with the inability of central banks to artificially subsidize the market through a capitalist form of central planning (quantitative easing and the precluding fraudulent classification of subprime debt as investment grade by the treasury department to take an example) and we're ripe for a bad recession. The same mistakes that the U.S.S.R made are being repeated by central banks and governments right now. Not in the same exact flavour, but the spirit is there. The statistics are spun by an inaccurate ideological lens and portrayed in such a way that things don't seem as bad as they are. It also wouldn't surprise me if some of the statistics are outright lies and or exaggerated truths. Historically the U.S.S.R did do that, as have other slowly waning empires, we are no exception as conspiratorial as that may sound. And America is an empire, a commercial empire, but an empire nevertheless. We have over 800 overseas military bases and are the most powerful empire in world history.

 

Another anecdote is that when looking at the historical unemployment chart (not U-6) it seems that low unemployment on the tale end of a contraction of the labour market is a good indicator of an approaching recession, not an indicator of stability or a healthy economy. Capitalism lives in a cycle of crisis, and looking at the historical unemployment chart shows we are in the tale end of one of the largest labour market contractions in U.S history. 

 

https://www.macrotre...employment-rate

 

3ZPB2nJ.png

 

 

As for protests and riots. In my city alone, Pittsburgh, there have been two major events of unrest over the past year. The first being the murder of Antwon Rose by a so called "officer of the law." This resulted in thousands taking to the streets and protesters blocking the interstate tunnels entering my city. Some of the protests were very energetic and frankly angry. Some of them were classified by the state as "riots" despite the protesters being non-violent in nature. I myself helped run a small water brigade to make sure folks didn't get dehydrated. 

 

https://www.wtae.com...l-exit/21756977

 

The second major event was the synagogue shooting at Tree of Life which saw the Mayor of my city refusing to invite, welcome or greet the President of the United States as he was shouted out of town by a crowd of protesters.

 

The mayor of Pittsburgh, Bill Peduto, who just a day before had urged the president not to visit while the mourners buried the dead, neither met with Mr. Trump nor joined the protests. The top four Republican and Democratic congressional leaders who were invited to join him all declined.

 

https://www.nytimes....ing-jewish.html

 

This is the definition of a stressed and divided country. I've been seeing that boiling point simmer in my city for a while now. The same pattern is visible across the country from Ferguson to Baltimore to Occupy to G20 to the Women's Marches to Charlottesville. 



#662
Erowind

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.

 

A 7.3% U-6 number is pretty good though? Looking back towards the 90's (and finding u-6 data is a huge pain that far back for some reason), the U-6 was at or below 7.3% from October 1999 to Feb 2001 and that's the only period it was below that as far back as Feb 1994. The U-6 is lagging U-5 and U-3 compared to that period though I guess. U-5 and U-3 are at lows compared to all months since 1994, so there's certainly room for improvement.

 

Not sure what you mean by riots and major protests being common though the last one's I remember were a few years ago.

 

 

Forgot to quote. Look up in the thread /\ 

 

:)



#663
Yuli Ban

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#664
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Trump Readies New Round of Aid to Farmers Hit by China Trade War

Source: Bloomberg



The Trump administration is preparing to announce another round of aid to farmers hurt by the trade war with China as soon as Thursday, people familiar with the plan said, a package of assistance that could exceed $15 billion.

The aid plan is largely modeled on the program the administration put in place last year after China slapped retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, though the payments will be more generous.

The administration is considering payments of about $2 per bushel to soybean growers, 63 cents per bushel to wheat growers and 4 cents per bushel to corn growers to compensate for losses from the trade war, according to two people familiar with the payment levels, who asked not to be identified because the aid plan hasn’t been made public.

The administration last year paid $1.65 per bushel for soybeans, 14 cents per bushel for wheat and 1 cent per bushel for corn.

 


Read more: https://www.bloomber...rmers-trade-war



#665
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U.S. Beer Industry Blames Trump Tariffs for 40,000 Job Losses

Source: Bloomberg


The U.S. beer industry is blaming a jobs hangover on the Trump administration’s tariffs.

A report by two trade groups showed U.S. beer-industry jobs dropped 40,000 since 2016 as metal tariffs boosted aluminum-can costs, leading to a drop in investment. The biennial study by the Beer Institute and National Beer Wholesalers Association said direct, indirect and induced jobs fell to 2.19 million in 2018 from 2.23 million in 2016.

“Aluminum tariffs are increasing brewers’ costs and are an anchor on a vibrant industry,” Jim McGreevy, the chief executive officer of the Beer Institute in Washington, said in an emailed statement. “Each brewer is deciding for themselves how to absorb that expense, whether it’s raising prices, laying off workers or delaying innovation and expansion.”
Aluminum traders expect higher costs to ship metal into U.S. Midwest

The shipping and logistics charge for delivering aluminum to the U.S. Midwest, known as the “premium,” more than doubled as Trump slapped a 10% tariff on imports of the metal. Molson Coors Brewing Co. estimated last year that the levies would create a $40 million hit to its bottom line.

 


Read more: https://www.bloomber...-s-jobs-decline



#666
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Wall St. loses early gains as trade concerns abound

Source: Reuters




May 28, 2019 / 6:22 AM / Updated an hour ago
 



NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with initial gains giving way to declines as the likelihood of a prolonged trade war between the United States and China once again kept risk appetite in check.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he was “not yet ready” to make a deal with China, although he expected one could be reached in the future. An expanding tariff battle between the two sides has raised concerns the trade war would lead to a global economic slowdown.

“The market holds up well, but then the weak hands take over late in the day,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“Pick a worry and it continues to grow and manifest, whether it be trade or looking into consumer confidence, thinking maybe those people did the survey before the China stuff hit the fan. Clearly it’s all about trade.”

 

................................

The majority of the 11 S&P sectors were in the red, with only communication services on the plus side. ...............................

Read more: https://www.reuters....d-idUSKCN1SY15F



#667
Yuli Ban

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Don’t say we didn’t warn you’: A phrase from China signals the trade war could get even worse

  • “We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side’s ability to safeguard its development rights and interests. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!” the People’s Daily said in a commentary titled “United States, don’t underestimate China’s ability to strike back.”
  • The phrase “Don’t say we didn’t warn you” was only used two other times in history by the People’s Daily — in 1962 before China’s border war with India and ahead of the 1979 China-Vietnam War.
  • China threatened it would cut off rare earth minerals as a countermeasure in the escalated trade battle. The materials are crucial to the production of iPhones, electric vehicles and advanced precision weapons

 

The biggest Chinese newspaper explicitly warned the U.S. on Wednesday that China would cut off rare earth minerals as a countermeasure in the escalated trade battle, using an expression the publication has only used twice in history, both of which involved full-on wars.

Hmm.


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#668
Yuli Ban

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Brazil economy contracts for the first time since 2016

Brazil's economy shrank in the first three months of the year for the first time since 2016, when the country was in recession.
It contracted by 0.2% compared with the last three months of 2018. Compared with a year ago, it grew by 0.5%.
The fall comes at time when Brazil's president Jair Bolsonaro is facing scrutiny of his efforts to revive the economy after a two-year recession.
Economists said there was a risk of another recession.
If the economy shrinks again the second quarter, the country, once regarded as having huge growth potential, will be in recession again.
That would come barely three years after the two-year recession in 2015 and 2016, when the economy shrank by almost 7%.


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#669
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Trump Says U.S. Will Hit Mexico With Tariffs on All Goods

Source: New York Times
 


WASHINGTON — President Trump said Thursday he planned to impose a 5 percent tariff on all imported goods from Mexico beginning June 10, a tax that he said would “gradually increase” until Mexico stopped the flow of undocumented immigrants across the border.

The announcement, which Mr. Trump hinted at on Thursday morning and announced on his Twitter feed, said the tariffs would be in place “until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP.”

 

https://www.nytimes....co-tariffs.html



#670
Yuli Ban

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Creating an economic depression to own the libs.


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#671
caltrek

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It may be a mistake to put all of our eggs in the "he is going to cause a recession basket."

 

Recession, or no recession, I trust Bernie Sanders to negotiate these things better than Trump. Trump's method of lies, lies and more lies, may create more of an equal playing field with countries like China, but it leaves the American public bewildered as to what is really going on.  Do we want protectionists measures at the expense of basic truth?

 

Why not consider the option of having both protectionist measures and the truth?


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#672
starspawn0

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https://mobile.twitt...611937193578501
 

Tucker Carlson: “When the United States is attacked by a hostile foreign power, it must strike back. And make no mistake, Mexico is a hostile foreign power”


Greenwald, Tracey, and others go on Tucker's show. They must think he is mostly harmless, but that their message is super-important, and must be heard.

#673
Yuli Ban

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Carmakers see $25 billion wiped out in a day by Trump's Mexico threat



Infinite-sized brain: end illegal immigration by Mexicans by causing mass unemployment in Mexico that leads to millions of Mexicans leaving their country


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#674
Yuli Ban

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China won when Trump blindsided Mexico with tariffs, says former Mexican ambassador to China

There’s no doubt that President Donald Trump’s surprise new tariffs on Mexico are good for China, Jorge Guajardo, former Mexican ambassador to China, told CNBC on Friday.
The U.S. and China have been engaged in an escalating trade war. However, it was Mexico in Trump’s sights on Thursday night, when he blindsided the U.S.′ southern neighbor with the announcement that his administration will impose a 5% duty on all Mexican imports starting June 10. The tariffs will gradually increase to 25% in October, the White House said.

“Mexico and China compete. When Mexico wins, China loses. When China wins, Mexico loses,” Guajardo said on “The Exchange. ”
“China won yesterday.”

I'm inclined to agree. Why the fuck did Trump do this?


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#675
Yuli Ban

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Trump Administration Considered Tariffs on Australia

The Trump administration considered imposing tariffs on imports from Australia last week, but decided against the move amid fierce opposition from military officials and the State Department, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
Some of President Trump’s top trade advisers had urged the tariffs as a response to a surge of Australian aluminum flowing onto the American market over the past year. But officials at the Defense and State Departments told Mr. Trump the move would alienate a top ally and could come at significant cost to the United States.
The administration ultimately agreed not to take any action, at least temporarily.
The measure would open yet another front in a global trade war that has pitted the United States against allies like Canada, Mexico, Europe and Japan, and deepened divisions with countries like China. It would also be the end of a reprieve for the only country to be fully exempted from the start from steel and aluminum tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed last year.

Who were those good patriots who stopped Trump?


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#676
Yuli Ban

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Global recession fears grow as factory activity shrinks

Factory activity contracted across Asia and Europe last month as an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised fears of a global economic downturn and heaped pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus.Such growth indicators are likely to deteriorate further in coming months as higher trade tariffs take their toll on global commerce and further dent business and consumer sentiment, leading to job losses and delays in investment decisions.
 
Some economists predict a world recession and a renewed race to the bottom on interest rates if trade tensions fail to ease at a Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan at the end of June, when presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could meet.
 
The U.S.-China trade war, slumping automotive demand, Brexit and wider geopolitical uncertainty took their toll on manufacturing activity in the euro zone last month. It contracted for a fourth month in May - and at a faster pace.


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#677
Yuli Ban

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Trade war could cause U.S. recession in less than a year, Morgan Stanley says

President Donald Trump's trade war with China could send the U.S. into recession in less than a year, Morgan Stanley warned in a research note published Sunday. If the U.S. follows through with threats to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 25%, and if China retaliates, "We could end up in a recession in three quarters," said Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's chief economist. Investors "appear to be overlooking its potential impact on the global macro outlook," Ahya wrote. U.S. growth will be impacted as costs increase, demand slows and companies cut back on spending, he said, and government policies aimed to ease the pain likely won't take effect in time.


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#678
Sciencerocks

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GOP lawmakers warn White House they'll try to block Trump's Mexico tariffs

Source: Washington Post


 

Republican senators warned Trump administration officials Tuesday they were prepared to block the president’s effort to impose tariffs on Mexican imports, promising what would be GOP lawmakers’ most brazen defiance of the president since he took office.

During a closed-door lunch, at least a half-dozen senators spoke in opposition to the tariffs, while no one spoke in support, according to multiple people present who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private meeting. Senators told officials from the White House and Department of Justice that there could be a disapproval vote if Trump moves forward — and this time, unlike with an earlier disapproval resolution, opponents of Trump’s tariffs could have enough support to override a veto.

“I think the administration ought to be concerned about another vote of disapproval on another national emergency act, this time trying to implement tariffs. Tariffs are not real popular in the Republican conference,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), summarizing what he said he’d told the administration officials. “This is a different vote.” “There is not much support in my conference for tariffs, that’s for sure,” said Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). He said senators hope negotiations with Mexico will be “fruitful” and the tariffs won’t happen.

The lunch meeting occurred just hours after Trump, during a news conference in London, reiterated his intention to impose the tariffs next week and said it would be “foolish” for Republican senators to try to stop him. The 5 percent tariffs on all Mexican goods, rising to 25 percent over time, are aimed at trying to force Mexico to take action to stop the tide of Central American migrants seeking entry into the United states.

 


Read more: https://www.washingt...b8fb_story.html



#679
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Trump: Mexico tariffs will 'likely' go into effect Monday despite talks

Source: Politico


By SABRINA RODRIGUEZ 06/04/2019 09:45 AM EDT Updated 06/04/2019 10:09 AM EDT


President Donald Trump said Tuesday that a tariff on all Mexican goods will likely go into effect next week, despite a summit meeting between U.S. and Mexican officials scheduled for Wednesday.

"We are going to see if we can do something, but I think it's more likely that the tariffs go on — and we will probably be talking during the time that the tariffs are on," Trump said during a press conference with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May.

"Mexico shouldn't allow millions of people to try to enter our country and they could stop it very quickly. I think they will," Trump said. “If they won't we're going to put tariffs on.”

Top Mexican officials have been in Washington since the weekend crafting a proposal to offer the U.S. that would persuade Trump to drop his plans to slap a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican goods starting June 10.

 


Read more: https://www.politico...-effect-1352891



#680
Alislaws

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How much money has the US gained from these tarrifs?

 

I know there have been big tax cuts, are the tariffs doing much to offset that?

 

Back in the day trade tariffs were a huge chunk of a govts income (income tax being incredibly hard to enforce and land taxes being unpopular with landowners who held all the power)

 

Its got to be in the 100s of billions given the number of countries involved. I'm sure a lot of money will be coming from US businesses as the tariff cost is passed on which will lower profits (and therefore taxes) but afaik most businesses don't pay much tax due to having good accountants?







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