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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

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#721
caltrek

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While the news from Germany, China, the U.S., Argentina, and Great Britain reveals weakening economies, the news from France and other parts of Europe seems to be good.  One wonders if that will continue if the rest of the world goes into recession.

 

France's unemployment rate falls again to new 10-year low

 

https://www.thelocal...new-10-year-low

 

 

(The Local) France's unemployment rate dipped slightly in the second quarter to 8.5 percent, its lowest level in a decade, the national statistics agency Insee said on Wednesday, confirming a moderate downward trend begun in mid-2015.

 

On the French mainland, the rate fell 0.2 points compared with the first quarter to 8.2 percent, or 2.4 million jobless. 

 

The level stood at 8.5 percent when French overseas territories were included, also down 0.2 points over the first three months of 2019 to the lowest level since 2009.

 

Figures from the first quarter, released in May, showed unemployment at 8.7, which was itself a 10-year record low.

 

The fall in the number of jobless mirrors the situation in the wider eurozone, where unemployment fell to an 11-year low of 7.5 percent of May.

 

Even though unemployment is dropping in France, it still seems to be higher than the official current rate in the U.S.

 

http://www.ncsl.org/...hly-update.aspx

 

 

Approximately 164,000 jobs were created in July 2019, and the national unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#722
caltrek

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Markets Are Shaken by New Signs of Global Economic Trouble

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/business/economy/economy-world-trade.html
 

Extract:

 

(New York Times) The global economy is under increasing stress as growth cools and trade tensions take a mounting toll. On Wednesday, the tremors were felt worldwide.

 

…Bank of America Merrill Lynch has put the odds of a recession in the United States in the coming year at one in three, citing factors like weaker industrial production and auto sales.

 

Mr. Trump has pointed to the economy’s performance as a benchmark of his success and an argument for his re-election in 2020. And many indicators remain vibrant. At 3.7 percent, unemployment is low by historical standards, while consumer confidence is high. Even with Wall Street’s recent volatility, major stock indexes are close to record levels.

 

…The slide (in second quarter profits) was most pronounced among companies with the greatest exposure to the global economy and trade. Earnings at American semiconductor manufacturers, which rely on production networks in China and generate much of their sales there, fell about 25 percent. 

 

...Germany’s economic performance in the second quarter was the worst among the countries using the common European currency, the euro, separate data from the European Union statistics agency indicated. Even Italy, long a weak link, did slightly better than Germany — its growth in the quarter was zero.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#723
Yuli Ban

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Bernie Madoff whistleblower says GE is a bigger fraud than Enron

Harry Markopolos is famous for blowing the whistle on Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, which blew up in 2008. Now the accounting investigator has his sights set on a new target: General Electric. He accuses the troubled company of orchestrating a massive fraud.
Markopolos said in a report released Thursday that GE was hiding nearly $40 billion of losses in its insurance business. He said this is the largest case of accounting fraud he and his team have investigated.
"In fact, GE's $38 billion in accounting fraud amounts to over 40% of GE's market capitalization, making it far more serious than either the Enron or WorldCom accounting frauds," Markopolos wrote in the report, referring to the scandals that eventually helped bankrupt energy giant Enron in 2001 and long-distance telco WorldCom in 2002.
GE strongly denied Markopolos' allegations.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#724
caltrek

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The US isn’t the only major economy facing a possible recession

 

https://www.vox.com/...-brazil-germany

 

Extract:

 

(Vox) Fears of another global economic slowdown are rising as reliable data indicates the United States — the world’s largest economy — may be headed for another recession.

 

That’s bad enough for global markets, but what’s worse is that many of the world’s other top economies may also be headed for troubling downturns.

 

Japan faces a recession, and it’s recently entered into a nasty trade dispute with South Korea.

 

….Singapore, another Asian economic engine, is also on the brink of recession…. Brazil and Mexico, two leaders of Central and South America’s economies, are expected to perform weakly this year.

 

….Take the case of Mexico. “Many of the early decisions of the [Andrés Manuel] López Obrador administration, such as canceling major infrastructure projects and all clean energy auctions, caused multinational companies to reevaluate their investment plans,” she explains. “Mass firing and forced salary cuts of government employees over the last eight months have not only cut the fat but the meat and the bones of the new administration, resulting in an unexpected decrease in government expenditure and the lowest job creation numbers in six years.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#725
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Trade War Anomaly: Why Northern Europe Sells More to China, Proportionally, Than We Do

 

https://prospect.org...rtionally-we-do

 

Introduction:

 

(American Prospect) China’s trade practices pose a barrier to broadly based American prosperity, and in his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump effectively railed against the indulgence of those practices by past administrations. Trump’s own inept trade negotiations, however, have not reduced such practices. Rather remarkably, Trump has managed to significantly worsen the United States’ trade deficit with China: U.S. imports from China are up while U.S. exports have dropped precipitously.

 

State subsidies for companies that export, tariff barriers, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and similar trade pathologies are deeply rooted pillars of China’s authoritarian governance. And despite offering only modest prospects, there are realistic policies for recalibrating Chinese mercantilism, as David Dayen, among others, has identified.

 

The problems inherent in U.S. trade policy run deeper than Trump’s ineptness. They will likely persist, and Trump will fail to meet his 2016 promises to American workers, unless and until U.S. corporate governance is upgraded. American corporate boards must shift their goal to prioritize the prosperity of local communities and employees as well as shareholders.

 

To be sure, Trump’s China tariffs have caused U.S. firms to vote with their feet. But rather than surging homeward to build factories in Wisconsin or Michigan, at least 50 American firms are fleeing China to relocate their plants in that nation’s lower-wage neighbors, most particularly Vietnam. American-style shareholder capitalism systematically discourages the building of a domestic production base for domestic consumption or for exports to China or anywhere else. Instead, corporate boards offshore production with abandon. The U.S. trade balance with China makes that unmistakably clear: In 2017, Americans imported $526 billion worth of goods from China, while exporting only $130 billion worth of goods there.

 

Other nations with comparably advanced economies have avoided this level of economic dysfunction. When it comes to our trade balance with China, for instance, we vastly underperform the nations of Northern Europe.

 

ap_184498145854.jpg?itok=oWJZOgtA

A cargo ship is loaded with containers in Qingdao City, China

Yu Fangping/Imaginechina/AP Images


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#726
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Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro downplays China tariffs' impact on consumers

Source: CBS News



One of the top trade officials in the White House argued on Sunday that China is bearing the burden of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, not American consumers, and explained why President Trump decided last week to delay the imposition of new tariffs.

"We've had tariffs on for over a year," Peter Navarro, the director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, said on "Face the Nation" Sunday. "The Chinese have borne the entire burden of that by slashing their prices and reducing the value of their currency by 12%."

But last past week saw the stock market careening, fueled by fears of the trade war with China and a potential U.S. recession. President Trump acknowledged the pain consumers might feel from a new round of tariffs he had threatened to impose and decided to pull back, at least on tariffs related to consumer products.

"We're doing this for Christmas season just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers, which so far they've had virtually none," the president said Tuesday.

 

Read more: https://www.cbsnews....-china-tariffs/



#727
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Terrible news for Trump on the economy in new WSJ/NBC poll

 

https://thinkprogres...y-afe7e8902262/

 

Conclusion:

 

(Think Progress) Trump’s disastrous tariff-driven trade war with China hasn’t just hurt Americans in the pocketbook and caused volatility in the stock market. It has actually made Americans more supportive of free trade.

 

Near the start of his presidency, Americans’ net approval of free trade was 20 percentage points — 57% supported it and 37% opposed. Today, that net approval is a whopping 37 points, as 64% support but only 27% oppose.

 

That change “was driven most sharply by political independents,” reports CNBC, “who now embrace free trade by a 77%-15% margin.”

 

The bottom line is that whatever advantage Trump thought he was going to get in the election from his handling of the economy and his trade war with China has all but vanished.


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#728
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Truckers voted for Donald Trump in droves. Now, they say his trade war is 'killing' their ability to
make a living.

-------------------------------------

Morris Coffman has been a truck driver for 35 years. And he's been a conservative for even longer than that -- his whole life.

"That said," Coffman told Business Insider, "cry.gifPresident Donald Trump) is absolutely a moron. His idiotic ideas will tank the economy even further."

Truckers, like Coffman, lean conservative. A Verdant Labs analysis of Federal Elections Commission data found that nearly three-quarters of truck drivers are Republican - one of the most conservative jobs in America along with surgeons and farmers.

And truck drivers supported Trump in droves, according to an Overdrive magazine survey from 2016. Around 75% said they planned to vote for Trump, up from 66% who supported Sen. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.

But a sharp downturn in the trucking industry coupled with a slew of tax changes have hampered their ability to make a living. And many connect those two trends to Trump's economic policies.

"He has not affected our business in a positive way," a truck driver who asked to be quoted anonymously out of fear that their small business would be afflicted. "He's killing our business. If consumers aren't buying, then there is no demand. This really isn't about my political leanings, it's pure business."

 



https://www.msn.com/...4VCS?li=BBnbfcN


#729
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'I am the Chosen One,' Trump proclaims as he defends trade war with China

Source: CNBC



President Donald Trump on Wednesday declared himself “the Chosen One” as he defended his administration’s actions in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

The president’s self-aggrandizing remark followed a string of criticisms aimed at his predecessors, whom he claimed had ignored China’s alleged malpractice on trade.

“This isn’t my trade war, this is a trade war that should have taken place a long time ago,” Trump told reporters outside the White House.

“Somebody had to do it,” the president said. He added, while looking to the heavens: “I am the Chosen One.”

 


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com...-trade-war.html

 

lol


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#730
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Trump Orders American Companies to 'Start Looking for an Alternative to China'

Source: New York Times



WASHINGTON — Hours after Beijing said it would increase tariffs on American goods in response to President Trump’s latest round of Chinese levies, the president ordered companies in the United States to stop doing business with China and warned of additional retaliation.

In a series of angry Twitter posts, Mr. Trump said “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing our companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

The president also said he was ordering the United States Postal Service and private American companies like FedEx, Amazon and UPS to search packages from China for the opioid Fentanyl and refuse delivery.

“We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them,” Mr. Trump said on Twitter. “The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP.”

It was not yet clear on Friday how Mr. Trump planned to carry out his demands, including ordering companies to begin seeking alternatives to China. Mr. Trump has routinely urged American companies to stop doing business in China and has viewed his tariffs as a way to prod them to move production. While some companies have begun looking for other places to locate their supply chains, including Vietnam, many businesses — particularly smaller ones — say such a move is costly, time-consuming and could put them out of business.

 

Read more: https://www.nytimes....iffs-trump.html


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#731
Jessica

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Trump Says He Will Raise Existing Tariffs on Chinese Goods to 30%

Source: New York Times



WASHINGTON -- President Trump, angered by Beijing's decision on Friday to retaliate against his next round of tariffs and furious at his Federal Reserve chair for not doing more to juice the economy, said he would increase taxes on all Chinese goods and demanded that American companies stop doing business with China

Mr. Trump, in a tweet, said he would raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to 30 percent from the current rate of 25 percent beginning Oct. 1. And he said the United States would tax the remaining $300 billion worth of imports at a 15 percent rate, rather than the 10 percent he had initially planned. Those levies go into effect on Sept. 1.

"China should not have put new Tariffs on 75 BILLION DOLLARS of United States product (politically motivated!). Starting on October 1st, the 250 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, currently being taxed at 25%, will be taxed at 30%," Mr. Trump said in a tweet.

Those levels are likely to exacerbate the financial pain already being felt from the tariffs as companies and consumers face higher prices for products that they buy from China. Even before the new 30 percent rate, the tariffs were expected to cost the average American household more than $800 per year, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 




Read more: https://www.nytimes....iffs-trump.html


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#732
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The disentanglement carries on
Only take advice from people who have what you want.
You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.

#733
Jessica

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'Senseless disputes': E.U.'s Tusk says Trump's trade wars are damaging global economy

Source: Washington Post


European Council President Donald Tusk on Saturday said escalating trade tensions between President Trump and other world leaders risk throwing the world into recession, bemoaning “senseless disputes” that had ripped countries apart. “This may be the last moment to restore our political community,” he told reporters at the beginning of the Group of Seven summit here.

Tusk’s comments came one day after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping dramatically escalated a fierce trade war between the two countries. Tusk is attending the G-7 summit with Trump and leaders from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada and Japan, and he said the summit comes at a perilous time.

“For me it’s absolutely clear that if someone, for example . . . the United States and President Trump, uses tariffs and taxation as a political instrument, tool for some different political reasons, it means that this confrontation can be really risky for the whole world, including the E.U.,” Tusk said. “This is why we need the G-7.”

But in a sign that leaders are bracing for things to only get worse, Tusk said the E.U. was ready to retaliate against Trump if the U.S. leader followed through on some of his trade-related threats directed at France. Trump has said he will impose tariffs on French wine because France recently imposed taxes that impact U.S. technology companies. “If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the E.U. will [respond] in kind,” he said.

 


Read more: https://www.washingt...7be4_story.html



#734
Yuli Ban

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EU says it will 'respond in kind' if US slaps tariffs on France

The European Union will "respond in kind" if the U.S. imposes tariffs on France over a new French digital tax law, European Council President Donald Tusk said Saturday.
Tusk's comment at a press conference during the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in France followed a renewed threat by President Trump to put a tariff on imported French wines.
“I will protect French wine with genuine determination for many reasons,” Tusk said, according to Fox Business.
“The EU stands by France. If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the EU will respond in kind,” he added.


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#735
Yuli Ban

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Trump will be blamed for a global recession if he continues his trade war with China, says Boris Johnson

  • Donald Trump told to end his trade war with China or risk being blamed for a global recession.
  • UK prime minister Boris Johnson urges the president to drop tariffs or risk dragging down the world economy.
  • "Those who support the tariffs are at risk of incurring the blame for the downturn in the global economy," Johnson said.
  • The two leaders met for breakfast at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France.

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#736
Yuli Ban

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Ugh, I actually feel nauseous.

 

Trump doubles down on claim he can order U.S. companies to cut ties with China

 

Citing unspecified Congressional action from 1977, Trump again claimed that he can order U.S. companies not to do business with China. Our panel tries to make sense of the president's dubious claim.

It would have been so easy to render China harmless and defanged and protect American hegemony.

This is the probably the first move he's made all thread that could actually, unironically trigger an economic depression.

Not a recession. D.E.P.R.E.S.S.I.O.N.

Pray to God, any god, every god that he is restrained from actually going through on this.

 

wait a MiNuTe!!

 

What if Trump is actually a closet socialist and all of this is an attempt to bust international capitalism by literally eviscerating neoliberalism and free trade, which has suppressed the power of labor?

What if Trump is Proletarian Hero?

Is Trump Большевистский герой?


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#737
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President Trump expresses regret over trade war with China, then claims he was 'misinterpreted'

Source: USA Today


BIARRITZ, France — President Donald Trump signaled Sunday that he may be having regrets over his trade war with China, but the White House backtracked a few hours later and said he had been misunderstood.

At a breakfast meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Trump said “yeah” when a reporter asked if he was having second thoughts about how the trade conflict with China has escalated.

“I have second thoughts about everything,” he said.

White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham later issued a statement seeking to clarify Trump's comments and suggesting the only thing he regrets is not placing higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

 


Read more: https://www.usatoday...mit/2107246001/



#738
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Lindsey Graham: America must 'accept the pain that comes with standing up to China'
 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Sunday that the “pain that comes with standing up to China” was a necessary aspect of the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing.

“Every Democrat and every Republican of note has said China cheats,” Graham, one of President Trump’s most vocal allies in the Senate, told CBS’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”

“The Democrats for years have been claiming that China should be stood up to. Now Trump is, and we just got to accept the pain that comes with standing up to China,” he added. “How do you get China to change without creating some pain on them and us? I don’t know.”

Asked if the ongoing conflict would place any burden on his own constituents, Graham responded, “Some,” adding, “Consumer prices on commodities are going to go up” as a result of tariffs on Chinese goods. However, he said, “until [the Chinese] feel the pain, they’re not going to stop. ... They never will until they feel a heavier price.”

 


https://thehill.com/...-standing-up-to


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#739
Erowind

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Who would have thought that the train modeller himself Boris Johnson was also a neoliberal despite riding on the backs of brexit. I'll maintain that I like protectionism to an extant. In fact I like autarky wherever possible given both the economic and ecological consequences of mass international trade. However, and to be fair who would have expected anything better from one in a long line of incompetent puppet administrations; the Trump administration has and will continue to completely mismanage protectionist policies.

The way to bring about autarky is to develope domestic industry gradually alongside slow and decades long gradual tariffs on everyone but closely allied nations. Coops galore and the death of consumerism. The way to not bring about autarky is to shock the economy with sudden massive tarrifs while letting capital freely gut domestic industry.

My definition of autarky isn't complete isolation either. Autarky simply means self sufficiency in all critical industry and most noncritical industry. Imports and exports are okay when they benefit the people and don't diminish self sufficiency.

Edit: autarky in capitalist economies to prevent exploitation. Hypothetical socialist nations should trade freely.

#740
Yuli Ban

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Surge in corporate debt with negative yields poses risk 'unlike anything' investors have ever seen

Government bonds aren’t the only instruments producing negative yields these days, with corporate debt recently passing the $1 trillion mark in a continuing sign of global financial displacement.
Investors these days are facing huge amounts of fixed income instruments that carry no yield. Various estimates of sovereign debt in that category put the total in excess of $15 trillion, a number that has been escalating over the past several years while central banks drive interest rates to zero and below.
Negative-yielding corporate debt, though, is a relatively new thing, rising from just $20 billion in January to pass the $1 trillion mark recently, according to Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research.


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