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Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

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#721
caltrek

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While the news from Germany, China, the U.S., Argentina, and Great Britain reveals weakening economies, the news from France and other parts of Europe seems to be good.  One wonders if that will continue if the rest of the world goes into recession.

 

France's unemployment rate falls again to new 10-year low

 

https://www.thelocal...new-10-year-low

 

 

(The Local) France's unemployment rate dipped slightly in the second quarter to 8.5 percent, its lowest level in a decade, the national statistics agency Insee said on Wednesday, confirming a moderate downward trend begun in mid-2015.

 

On the French mainland, the rate fell 0.2 points compared with the first quarter to 8.2 percent, or 2.4 million jobless. 

 

The level stood at 8.5 percent when French overseas territories were included, also down 0.2 points over the first three months of 2019 to the lowest level since 2009.

 

Figures from the first quarter, released in May, showed unemployment at 8.7, which was itself a 10-year record low.

 

The fall in the number of jobless mirrors the situation in the wider eurozone, where unemployment fell to an 11-year low of 7.5 percent of May.

 

Even though unemployment is dropping in France, it still seems to be higher than the official current rate in the U.S.

 

http://www.ncsl.org/...hly-update.aspx

 

 

Approximately 164,000 jobs were created in July 2019, and the national unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#722
caltrek

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Markets Are Shaken by New Signs of Global Economic Trouble

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/business/economy/economy-world-trade.html
 

Extract:

 

(New York Times) The global economy is under increasing stress as growth cools and trade tensions take a mounting toll. On Wednesday, the tremors were felt worldwide.

 

…Bank of America Merrill Lynch has put the odds of a recession in the United States in the coming year at one in three, citing factors like weaker industrial production and auto sales.

 

Mr. Trump has pointed to the economy’s performance as a benchmark of his success and an argument for his re-election in 2020. And many indicators remain vibrant. At 3.7 percent, unemployment is low by historical standards, while consumer confidence is high. Even with Wall Street’s recent volatility, major stock indexes are close to record levels.

 

…The slide (in second quarter profits) was most pronounced among companies with the greatest exposure to the global economy and trade. Earnings at American semiconductor manufacturers, which rely on production networks in China and generate much of their sales there, fell about 25 percent. 

 

...Germany’s economic performance in the second quarter was the worst among the countries using the common European currency, the euro, separate data from the European Union statistics agency indicated. Even Italy, long a weak link, did slightly better than Germany — its growth in the quarter was zero.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#723
Yuli Ban

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Bernie Madoff whistleblower says GE is a bigger fraud than Enron

Harry Markopolos is famous for blowing the whistle on Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, which blew up in 2008. Now the accounting investigator has his sights set on a new target: General Electric. He accuses the troubled company of orchestrating a massive fraud.
Markopolos said in a report released Thursday that GE was hiding nearly $40 billion of losses in its insurance business. He said this is the largest case of accounting fraud he and his team have investigated.
"In fact, GE's $38 billion in accounting fraud amounts to over 40% of GE's market capitalization, making it far more serious than either the Enron or WorldCom accounting frauds," Markopolos wrote in the report, referring to the scandals that eventually helped bankrupt energy giant Enron in 2001 and long-distance telco WorldCom in 2002.
GE strongly denied Markopolos' allegations.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#724
caltrek

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The US isn’t the only major economy facing a possible recession

 

https://www.vox.com/...-brazil-germany

 

Extract:

 

(Vox) Fears of another global economic slowdown are rising as reliable data indicates the United States — the world’s largest economy — may be headed for another recession.

 

That’s bad enough for global markets, but what’s worse is that many of the world’s other top economies may also be headed for troubling downturns.

 

Japan faces a recession, and it’s recently entered into a nasty trade dispute with South Korea.

 

….Singapore, another Asian economic engine, is also on the brink of recession…. Brazil and Mexico, two leaders of Central and South America’s economies, are expected to perform weakly this year.

 

….Take the case of Mexico. “Many of the early decisions of the [Andrés Manuel] López Obrador administration, such as canceling major infrastructure projects and all clean energy auctions, caused multinational companies to reevaluate their investment plans,” she explains. “Mass firing and forced salary cuts of government employees over the last eight months have not only cut the fat but the meat and the bones of the new administration, resulting in an unexpected decrease in government expenditure and the lowest job creation numbers in six years.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#725
caltrek

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Trade War Anomaly: Why Northern Europe Sells More to China, Proportionally, Than We Do

 

https://prospect.org...rtionally-we-do

 

Introduction:

 

(American Prospect) China’s trade practices pose a barrier to broadly based American prosperity, and in his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump effectively railed against the indulgence of those practices by past administrations. Trump’s own inept trade negotiations, however, have not reduced such practices. Rather remarkably, Trump has managed to significantly worsen the United States’ trade deficit with China: U.S. imports from China are up while U.S. exports have dropped precipitously.

 

State subsidies for companies that export, tariff barriers, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and similar trade pathologies are deeply rooted pillars of China’s authoritarian governance. And despite offering only modest prospects, there are realistic policies for recalibrating Chinese mercantilism, as David Dayen, among others, has identified.

 

The problems inherent in U.S. trade policy run deeper than Trump’s ineptness. They will likely persist, and Trump will fail to meet his 2016 promises to American workers, unless and until U.S. corporate governance is upgraded. American corporate boards must shift their goal to prioritize the prosperity of local communities and employees as well as shareholders.

 

To be sure, Trump’s China tariffs have caused U.S. firms to vote with their feet. But rather than surging homeward to build factories in Wisconsin or Michigan, at least 50 American firms are fleeing China to relocate their plants in that nation’s lower-wage neighbors, most particularly Vietnam. American-style shareholder capitalism systematically discourages the building of a domestic production base for domestic consumption or for exports to China or anywhere else. Instead, corporate boards offshore production with abandon. The U.S. trade balance with China makes that unmistakably clear: In 2017, Americans imported $526 billion worth of goods from China, while exporting only $130 billion worth of goods there.

 

Other nations with comparably advanced economies have avoided this level of economic dysfunction. When it comes to our trade balance with China, for instance, we vastly underperform the nations of Northern Europe.

 

ap_184498145854.jpg?itok=oWJZOgtA

A cargo ship is loaded with containers in Qingdao City, China

Yu Fangping/Imaginechina/AP Images


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#726
Jessica

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Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro downplays China tariffs' impact on consumers

Source: CBS News



One of the top trade officials in the White House argued on Sunday that China is bearing the burden of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, not American consumers, and explained why President Trump decided last week to delay the imposition of new tariffs.

"We've had tariffs on for over a year," Peter Navarro, the director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, said on "Face the Nation" Sunday. "The Chinese have borne the entire burden of that by slashing their prices and reducing the value of their currency by 12%."

But last past week saw the stock market careening, fueled by fears of the trade war with China and a potential U.S. recession. President Trump acknowledged the pain consumers might feel from a new round of tariffs he had threatened to impose and decided to pull back, at least on tariffs related to consumer products.

"We're doing this for Christmas season just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers, which so far they've had virtually none," the president said Tuesday.

 

Read more: https://www.cbsnews....-china-tariffs/



#727
caltrek

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Terrible news for Trump on the economy in new WSJ/NBC poll

 

https://thinkprogres...y-afe7e8902262/

 

Conclusion:

 

(Think Progress) Trump’s disastrous tariff-driven trade war with China hasn’t just hurt Americans in the pocketbook and caused volatility in the stock market. It has actually made Americans more supportive of free trade.

 

Near the start of his presidency, Americans’ net approval of free trade was 20 percentage points — 57% supported it and 37% opposed. Today, that net approval is a whopping 37 points, as 64% support but only 27% oppose.

 

That change “was driven most sharply by political independents,” reports CNBC, “who now embrace free trade by a 77%-15% margin.”

 

The bottom line is that whatever advantage Trump thought he was going to get in the election from his handling of the economy and his trade war with China has all but vanished.


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






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