Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Trade War & Recession News and Discussions

trade war economy USA China EU UK Trump Mexico Canada recession

  • Please log in to reply
808 replies to this topic

#721
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,376 posts

The US isn’t the only major economy facing a possible recession

 

https://www.vox.com/...-brazil-germany

 

Extract:

 

(Vox) Fears of another global economic slowdown are rising as reliable data indicates the United States — the world’s largest economy — may be headed for another recession.

 

That’s bad enough for global markets, but what’s worse is that many of the world’s other top economies may also be headed for troubling downturns.

 

Japan faces a recession, and it’s recently entered into a nasty trade dispute with South Korea.

 

….Singapore, another Asian economic engine, is also on the brink of recession…. Brazil and Mexico, two leaders of Central and South America’s economies, are expected to perform weakly this year.

 

….Take the case of Mexico. “Many of the early decisions of the [Andrés Manuel] López Obrador administration, such as canceling major infrastructure projects and all clean energy auctions, caused multinational companies to reevaluate their investment plans,” she explains. “Mass firing and forced salary cuts of government employees over the last eight months have not only cut the fat but the meat and the bones of the new administration, resulting in an unexpected decrease in government expenditure and the lowest job creation numbers in six years.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#722
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,376 posts

Trade War Anomaly: Why Northern Europe Sells More to China, Proportionally, Than We Do

 

https://prospect.org...rtionally-we-do

 

Introduction:

 

(American Prospect) China’s trade practices pose a barrier to broadly based American prosperity, and in his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump effectively railed against the indulgence of those practices by past administrations. Trump’s own inept trade negotiations, however, have not reduced such practices. Rather remarkably, Trump has managed to significantly worsen the United States’ trade deficit with China: U.S. imports from China are up while U.S. exports have dropped precipitously.

 

State subsidies for companies that export, tariff barriers, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and similar trade pathologies are deeply rooted pillars of China’s authoritarian governance. And despite offering only modest prospects, there are realistic policies for recalibrating Chinese mercantilism, as David Dayen, among others, has identified.

 

The problems inherent in U.S. trade policy run deeper than Trump’s ineptness. They will likely persist, and Trump will fail to meet his 2016 promises to American workers, unless and until U.S. corporate governance is upgraded. American corporate boards must shift their goal to prioritize the prosperity of local communities and employees as well as shareholders.

 

To be sure, Trump’s China tariffs have caused U.S. firms to vote with their feet. But rather than surging homeward to build factories in Wisconsin or Michigan, at least 50 American firms are fleeing China to relocate their plants in that nation’s lower-wage neighbors, most particularly Vietnam. American-style shareholder capitalism systematically discourages the building of a domestic production base for domestic consumption or for exports to China or anywhere else. Instead, corporate boards offshore production with abandon. The U.S. trade balance with China makes that unmistakably clear: In 2017, Americans imported $526 billion worth of goods from China, while exporting only $130 billion worth of goods there.

 

Other nations with comparably advanced economies have avoided this level of economic dysfunction. When it comes to our trade balance with China, for instance, we vastly underperform the nations of Northern Europe.

 

ap_184498145854.jpg?itok=oWJZOgtA

A cargo ship is loaded with containers in Qingdao City, China

Yu Fangping/Imaginechina/AP Images


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#723
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro downplays China tariffs' impact on consumers

Source: CBS News



One of the top trade officials in the White House argued on Sunday that China is bearing the burden of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, not American consumers, and explained why President Trump decided last week to delay the imposition of new tariffs.

"We've had tariffs on for over a year," Peter Navarro, the director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, said on "Face the Nation" Sunday. "The Chinese have borne the entire burden of that by slashing their prices and reducing the value of their currency by 12%."

But last past week saw the stock market careening, fueled by fears of the trade war with China and a potential U.S. recession. President Trump acknowledged the pain consumers might feel from a new round of tariffs he had threatened to impose and decided to pull back, at least on tariffs related to consumer products.

"We're doing this for Christmas season just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers, which so far they've had virtually none," the president said Tuesday.

 

Read more: https://www.cbsnews....-china-tariffs/



#724
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,376 posts

Terrible news for Trump on the economy in new WSJ/NBC poll

 

https://thinkprogres...y-afe7e8902262/

 

Conclusion:

 

(Think Progress) Trump’s disastrous tariff-driven trade war with China hasn’t just hurt Americans in the pocketbook and caused volatility in the stock market. It has actually made Americans more supportive of free trade.

 

Near the start of his presidency, Americans’ net approval of free trade was 20 percentage points — 57% supported it and 37% opposed. Today, that net approval is a whopping 37 points, as 64% support but only 27% oppose.

 

That change “was driven most sharply by political independents,” reports CNBC, “who now embrace free trade by a 77%-15% margin.”

 

The bottom line is that whatever advantage Trump thought he was going to get in the election from his handling of the economy and his trade war with China has all but vanished.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#725
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
Truckers voted for Donald Trump in droves. Now, they say his trade war is 'killing' their ability to
make a living.

-------------------------------------

Morris Coffman has been a truck driver for 35 years. And he's been a conservative for even longer than that -- his whole life.

"That said," Coffman told Business Insider, "cry.gifPresident Donald Trump) is absolutely a moron. His idiotic ideas will tank the economy even further."

Truckers, like Coffman, lean conservative. A Verdant Labs analysis of Federal Elections Commission data found that nearly three-quarters of truck drivers are Republican - one of the most conservative jobs in America along with surgeons and farmers.

And truck drivers supported Trump in droves, according to an Overdrive magazine survey from 2016. Around 75% said they planned to vote for Trump, up from 66% who supported Sen. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.

But a sharp downturn in the trucking industry coupled with a slew of tax changes have hampered their ability to make a living. And many connect those two trends to Trump's economic policies.

"He has not affected our business in a positive way," a truck driver who asked to be quoted anonymously out of fear that their small business would be afflicted. "He's killing our business. If consumers aren't buying, then there is no demand. This really isn't about my political leanings, it's pure business."

 



https://www.msn.com/...4VCS?li=BBnbfcN


#726
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
'I am the Chosen One,' Trump proclaims as he defends trade war with China

Source: CNBC



President Donald Trump on Wednesday declared himself “the Chosen One” as he defended his administration’s actions in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

The president’s self-aggrandizing remark followed a string of criticisms aimed at his predecessors, whom he claimed had ignored China’s alleged malpractice on trade.

“This isn’t my trade war, this is a trade war that should have taken place a long time ago,” Trump told reporters outside the White House.

“Somebody had to do it,” the president said. He added, while looking to the heavens: “I am the Chosen One.”

 


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com...-trade-war.html

 

lol



#727
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
Trump Orders American Companies to 'Start Looking for an Alternative to China'

Source: New York Times



WASHINGTON — Hours after Beijing said it would increase tariffs on American goods in response to President Trump’s latest round of Chinese levies, the president ordered companies in the United States to stop doing business with China and warned of additional retaliation.

In a series of angry Twitter posts, Mr. Trump said “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing our companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

The president also said he was ordering the United States Postal Service and private American companies like FedEx, Amazon and UPS to search packages from China for the opioid Fentanyl and refuse delivery.

“We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them,” Mr. Trump said on Twitter. “The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP.”

It was not yet clear on Friday how Mr. Trump planned to carry out his demands, including ordering companies to begin seeking alternatives to China. Mr. Trump has routinely urged American companies to stop doing business in China and has viewed his tariffs as a way to prod them to move production. While some companies have begun looking for other places to locate their supply chains, including Vietnam, many businesses — particularly smaller ones — say such a move is costly, time-consuming and could put them out of business.

 

Read more: https://www.nytimes....iffs-trump.html



#728
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
Trump Says He Will Raise Existing Tariffs on Chinese Goods to 30%

Source: New York Times



WASHINGTON -- President Trump, angered by Beijing's decision on Friday to retaliate against his next round of tariffs and furious at his Federal Reserve chair for not doing more to juice the economy, said he would increase taxes on all Chinese goods and demanded that American companies stop doing business with China

Mr. Trump, in a tweet, said he would raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to 30 percent from the current rate of 25 percent beginning Oct. 1. And he said the United States would tax the remaining $300 billion worth of imports at a 15 percent rate, rather than the 10 percent he had initially planned. Those levies go into effect on Sept. 1.

"China should not have put new Tariffs on 75 BILLION DOLLARS of United States product (politically motivated!). Starting on October 1st, the 250 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, currently being taxed at 25%, will be taxed at 30%," Mr. Trump said in a tweet.

Those levels are likely to exacerbate the financial pain already being felt from the tariffs as companies and consumers face higher prices for products that they buy from China. Even before the new 30 percent rate, the tariffs were expected to cost the average American household more than $800 per year, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 




Read more: https://www.nytimes....iffs-trump.html



#729
eacao

eacao

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 442 posts
  • LocationAustralia
The disentanglement carries on

If you're going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill

You don't decide your future. You decide your habits, and your habits decide your future.
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power. - Abraham Lincoln.


#730
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
'Senseless disputes': E.U.'s Tusk says Trump's trade wars are damaging global economy

Source: Washington Post


European Council President Donald Tusk on Saturday said escalating trade tensions between President Trump and other world leaders risk throwing the world into recession, bemoaning “senseless disputes” that had ripped countries apart. “This may be the last moment to restore our political community,” he told reporters at the beginning of the Group of Seven summit here.

Tusk’s comments came one day after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping dramatically escalated a fierce trade war between the two countries. Tusk is attending the G-7 summit with Trump and leaders from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada and Japan, and he said the summit comes at a perilous time.

“For me it’s absolutely clear that if someone, for example . . . the United States and President Trump, uses tariffs and taxation as a political instrument, tool for some different political reasons, it means that this confrontation can be really risky for the whole world, including the E.U.,” Tusk said. “This is why we need the G-7.”

But in a sign that leaders are bracing for things to only get worse, Tusk said the E.U. was ready to retaliate against Trump if the U.S. leader followed through on some of his trade-related threats directed at France. Trump has said he will impose tariffs on French wine because France recently imposed taxes that impact U.S. technology companies. “If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the E.U. will [respond] in kind,” he said.

 


Read more: https://www.washingt...7be4_story.html



#731
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,048 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

EU says it will 'respond in kind' if US slaps tariffs on France

The European Union will "respond in kind" if the U.S. imposes tariffs on France over a new French digital tax law, European Council President Donald Tusk said Saturday.
Tusk's comment at a press conference during the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in France followed a renewed threat by President Trump to put a tariff on imported French wines.
“I will protect French wine with genuine determination for many reasons,” Tusk said, according to Fox Business.
“The EU stands by France. If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the EU will respond in kind,” he added.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#732
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,048 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Trump will be blamed for a global recession if he continues his trade war with China, says Boris Johnson

  • Donald Trump told to end his trade war with China or risk being blamed for a global recession.
  • UK prime minister Boris Johnson urges the president to drop tariffs or risk dragging down the world economy.
  • "Those who support the tariffs are at risk of incurring the blame for the downturn in the global economy," Johnson said.
  • The two leaders met for breakfast at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France.

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#733
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,048 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Ugh, I actually feel nauseous.

 

Trump doubles down on claim he can order U.S. companies to cut ties with China

 

Citing unspecified Congressional action from 1977, Trump again claimed that he can order U.S. companies not to do business with China. Our panel tries to make sense of the president's dubious claim.

It would have been so easy to render China harmless and defanged and protect American hegemony.

This is the probably the first move he's made all thread that could actually, unironically trigger an economic depression.

Not a recession. D.E.P.R.E.S.S.I.O.N.

Pray to God, any god, every god that he is restrained from actually going through on this.

 

wait a MiNuTe!!

 

What if Trump is actually a closet socialist and all of this is an attempt to bust international capitalism by literally eviscerating neoliberalism and free trade, which has suppressed the power of labor?

What if Trump is Proletarian Hero?

Is Trump Большевистский герой?


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#734
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
President Trump expresses regret over trade war with China, then claims he was 'misinterpreted'

Source: USA Today


BIARRITZ, France — President Donald Trump signaled Sunday that he may be having regrets over his trade war with China, but the White House backtracked a few hours later and said he had been misunderstood.

At a breakfast meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Trump said “yeah” when a reporter asked if he was having second thoughts about how the trade conflict with China has escalated.

“I have second thoughts about everything,” he said.

White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham later issued a statement seeking to clarify Trump's comments and suggesting the only thing he regrets is not placing higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

 


Read more: https://www.usatoday...mit/2107246001/



#735
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
Lindsey Graham: America must 'accept the pain that comes with standing up to China'
 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Sunday that the “pain that comes with standing up to China” was a necessary aspect of the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing.

“Every Democrat and every Republican of note has said China cheats,” Graham, one of President Trump’s most vocal allies in the Senate, told CBS’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”

“The Democrats for years have been claiming that China should be stood up to. Now Trump is, and we just got to accept the pain that comes with standing up to China,” he added. “How do you get China to change without creating some pain on them and us? I don’t know.”

Asked if the ongoing conflict would place any burden on his own constituents, Graham responded, “Some,” adding, “Consumer prices on commodities are going to go up” as a result of tariffs on Chinese goods. However, he said, “until [the Chinese] feel the pain, they’re not going to stop. ... They never will until they feel a heavier price.”

 


https://thehill.com/...-standing-up-to



#736
Erowind

Erowind

    Anarchist without an adjective

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,191 posts
Who would have thought that the train modeller himself Boris Johnson was also a neoliberal despite riding on the backs of brexit. I'll maintain that I like protectionism to an extant. In fact I like autarky wherever possible given both the economic and ecological consequences of mass international trade. However, and to be fair who would have expected anything better from one in a long line of incompetent puppet administrations; the Trump administration has and will continue to completely mismanage protectionist policies.

The way to bring about autarky is to develope domestic industry gradually alongside slow and decades long gradual tariffs on everyone but closely allied nations. Coops galore and the death of consumerism. The way to not bring about autarky is to shock the economy with sudden massive tarrifs while letting capital freely gut domestic industry.

My definition of autarky isn't complete isolation either. Autarky simply means self sufficiency in all critical industry and most noncritical industry. Imports and exports are okay when they benefit the people and don't diminish self sufficiency.

Edit: autarky in capitalist economies to prevent exploitation. Hypothetical socialist nations should trade freely.

#737
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,048 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Surge in corporate debt with negative yields poses risk 'unlike anything' investors have ever seen

Government bonds aren’t the only instruments producing negative yields these days, with corporate debt recently passing the $1 trillion mark in a continuing sign of global financial displacement.
Investors these days are facing huge amounts of fixed income instruments that carry no yield. Various estimates of sovereign debt in that category put the total in excess of $15 trillion, a number that has been escalating over the past several years while central banks drive interest rates to zero and below.
Negative-yielding corporate debt, though, is a relatively new thing, rising from just $20 billion in January to pass the $1 trillion mark recently, according to Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#738
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion deepens, flashing 'red'

Source: Marketwatch


The yield gap between the U.S. 2-year and 1-year Treasury note inverted further on Tuesday as bond market participants grew increasingly worried about the economic outlook in the face of President Trump’s international trade policies.

What are Treasurys doing? The 10-year Treasury note yield slipped 6 basis points to 1.484%. The 2-year note rate was down 2.3 basis points to 1.528%, while the 30-year bond yield slumped 7.7 basis points to 1.963%.

The spread between the 2-year note and the 10-year note stood at negative 4 basis points, Tradeweb data show.

The yield curve’s slope is usually positive as investors demand more compensation to own long-term debt against inflationary pressures or monetary policy uncertainty. An inversion of the yield curve, or a negative yield spread, thus points to widening concerns about the health of the economy and is seen as a usually reliable indicator of a coming recession.

 

Read more: https://www.marketwa...tion-2019-08-27



#739
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
China insists it is unaware of calls to Trump and says tariffs are 'extreme pressure' and 'not const

Source: CNBC


One day later, China is still insisting no phone calls took place over the weekend that President Donald Trump claimed showed its willingness to talk again.

"I have not heard of this situation regarding the two calls that the U.S. mentioned in the weekend," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at press conference on Tuesday. He had denied on Monday that the calls had taken place.

"Regretfully, the U.S. has further increased the tax rate on China's exports to the U.S. This extreme pressure is purely harmful to both sides and not constructive at all," Geng said, according to a CNBC translation.

On Monday, Trump said at the G-7 summit in France that China in recent phone conversations expressed its desire for a deal. His comment renewed hopes for a resolution between the world's two largest economies, pushing the market higher as the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 250 points Monday.

 


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com...s-to-trump.html



#740
Jessica

Jessica

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,533 posts
Retailers howl as U.S. trade agency locks in 15% tariffs on September 1

Source: Reuters


The Trump administration on Wednesday made official its extra 5% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports and set collection dates of Sept. 1 and Dec. 15, prompting hundreds of U.S. retail, footwear, toy and technology companies to warn of price hikes.

The U.S. Trade Representative's office said in an official notice that collections of a 15% tariff will begin at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) Sunday on a portion of the list covering over $125 billion of targeted goods from China.

This initial tranche includes smartwatches, Bluetooth headphones, flat panel televisions and many types of footwear.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection will also start collecting a 15% tariff on Dec. 15 on the remainder of the $300 billion list, including cellphones, laptop computers, toys and clothing, USTR said in the Federal Register filing.

 

Read more: https://finance.yaho...-142112350.html







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: trade war, economy, USA, China, EU, UK, Trump, Mexico, Canada, recession

2 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 2 guests, 0 anonymous users