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2024 US Election Thread

US United States Trump Republicans Democrats 2024 Election Party Jerrymandering

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#1
rennerpetey

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I figured that this was too far into the future to put it in the current news thread.  A mod can move this as we get closer(if this forum's still here by then and not replaced).

 

I figure Trump has a good chance at winning in 2020, but if he does, he's setting the Democrats up for years, and perhaps decades of domination.  All trends point to the country becoming more Liberal.  Minorities continue to grow in number(especially in the current Republican stronghold of Texas) and minorities tend to vote Democrat.  The population continues to become more urban, and urban areas tend to vote more Democrat.  More people are becoming college educated, and college grads tend to vote more liberal.  Each generation tends to be progressively more liberal, and by 2024, lots of Gen Z will be able to vote.

 

If the Republican party doesn't organize itself and change a lot after the 2024 election(assuming Trump wins 2020), then it may even sink into irrelevancy.  I wonder what alternate party would rise to face the Democrats, if one does.  Perhaps a socialist party, or maybe the US will become a multi-party system like most European countries.


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#2
rennerpetey

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Perhaps a socialist party will arise if the Democrats don't embrace it

Two Socialists In Pennsylvania Just Won Victories Democrats Can’t Ignore

 

Dom Costa was first elected to Pennsylvania’s statehouse nearly a decade ago. Paul Costa joined the same body 10 years earlier. On Tuesday, the distant cousins—both baby boomers and members of one of Pittsburgh’s most prominent political families—will face the electoral challenge of their lifetime. Democratic primary voters are heading to the polls to decide whether to send the two Costas back to Harrisburg or replace them with two millennial women who are dues-paying members of the Democratic Socialists of America.

 
Since it was founded in 1982, the Democratic Socialists of America has played virtually no role the country’s elections. That’s begun to change, fueled by the organization’s 2016 endorsement of Bernie Sanders and a growth spurt led by the activists and organizers he inspired. In Pittsburgh, the local DSA chapter is 500 members strong and hosts Marxist reading groups, organizes against controversial anti-abortion pregnancy centers, and works to reduce police stops by fixing residents’ brake lights. But its their efforts to elect socialists to office that have grabbed local headlines and put mainline politicos on notice—providing a template to their comrades across the country who, like Sanders, aim to build left-wing power by remaking the Democratic party. On Tuesday, the revitalized DSA, whose nationwide electoral successes have so far mostly been confined to a few dozen small municipal offices and school board seats, could notch its biggest wins yet in this Rust Belt city that’s long been defined by machine politics.

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#3
wjfox

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God, imagine the level of fake news in 2024. With sophisticated AI algorithms, churning out photo-realistic news reports or clips/interviews of people that aren't even real.

 

Also, I've heard that Gen Z is actually quite supportive of Trump and the alt-right, so I'm wondering if this "liberal" trend will actually continue.

 

It will be a long, long time (if ever) before the U.S. elects a truly socialist party. I suspect things will just carry on as they always have, with each "side" of the debate becoming more and more polarised, an increasingly dumbed-down population who consistently vote against their own interests, and some sort of collapse later this century as the country implodes under its own inequality. What happens after that is anyone's guess.


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#4
rennerpetey

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Also, I've heard that Gen Z is actually quite supportive of Trump and the alt-right, so I'm wondering if this "liberal" trend will actually continue.

Maybe not in the short term, but in the long term, this is a fact of life.  You are more liberal than your grandparents, who are more liberal than their grandparents and on and on.

 

It will be a long, long time (if ever) before the U.S. elects a truly socialist party. I suspect things will just carry on as they always have, with each "side" of the debate becoming more and more polarised, an increasingly dumbed-down population who consistently vote against their own interests, and some sort of collapse later this century as the country implodes under its own inequality. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
I really am hoping against this.  I desperately want the US to succeed, or at least not implode.  I can't see the country remaining this conservative as the rest of the world becomes more liberal.  The international pressure, or at least the influx of ideas will keep the US at least in range of European politics so long as the west retains power, and Europe doesn't lose influence.

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#5
Yuli Ban

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God, imagine the level of fake news in 2024. With sophisticated AI algorithms, churning out photo-realistic news reports or clips/interviews of people that aren't even real.

 

Also, I've heard that Gen Z is actually quite supportive of Trump and the alt-right, so I'm wondering if this "liberal" trend will actually continue.

Gen Z is also, on average, between 12 and 18 years old. When I was 13-14, I was a massive fan of Glenn Beck because fuck those liberals. When I grew up, I grew out of it. 

Gen X was actually much more Republican than Gen Z claims to be. I believe around 60% of Gen Xers claimed to be Republican in 1980. And may I remind you, they were conservative on both social and economic issues.

 

Gen Z is conservative only on economic issues, partially because they don't understand the nuances of economics yet. They've been spoonfed lies about what Europe is like, for example, often believing utter propaganda about how Sweden and London are war zones and the NHS is a failure. Meanwhile, they've correctly identified mainstream liberalism as counterintuitive and perhaps growing far too racially and sexually extreme in the other direction without attending to class problems (sometimes outright claiming class doesn't matter). 

 

The GOP's problem is that they've gone all in on paleoconservativism. Gen Z isn't paleoconservative. The GOP is going to have to either undergo a brutal schism or die off so that another party can take their place if they want to use Gen Z's voting powers when the time comes.


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#6
joe00uk

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As a Gen Z, I can tell you honestly that there isn't really a definable Gen Z trend at the moment. We're all over the place, politically. Most of us don't even care that much about politics because most of us are still just teenagers or at most, like myself, very young adults. The very oldest among us are like 22-23 years old. The youngest of us are about 8 years old. Those of us that do care about politics, well, in my experience it's more polarised than what seems to have come before (whether or not that's actually true).

 

Centrism is much less popular than I think it is in older generators, thank God. Many of us have veered leftwards, many of us have veered rightwards. I don't think either really holds sway more than the other in general. In some places there's more of a leftwards leaning, in other places a more rightwards leaning. SJW politics aren't very popular either, that definitely seems to be a Millennial thing. That's not to say there are no SJWs in what I've seen of my fellow Gen Z-ers, of course there are quite a few, and definitely more than there are in Gen X, but substantially less than among the Millennials. If many more were to become SJW/idpol-types, I'd already see signs of that in people the same age as me, even slightly younger, and that trend is decreasing in people I'd say born between 1998-2003, from what I can tell at the moment.

 

Where I live, the rightwards shift is much more prominent than the leftwards shift, but I do go to a Catholic school which is predominantly white British or Irish, some Polish too, so you see it's very dependent on the environment. There's another place I go to to do one subject which is a secular Sixth Form College and there the leftwards shift is dominant. This other place is a very multi-cultural environment with white British together with people of various Asian and African ethnic backgrounds. There is also a significant gender divide with boys and men much more likely to have rightist beliefs (if they're white), and girls and women much more likely to have leftist beliefs (non-white men too). It's obviously not completely cut and dried like that, but in general, that's the pattern, a greater polarisation. Maybe some other Gen Z-ers on this forum might disagree with me, but I'm just speaking from my own experience about what it's like where I live at the moment.


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#7
TranscendingGod

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I'm Gen Z? Huh who woulda thunk. 


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#8
Erowind

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Ahh Pittsburgh how I love you, DSA is a real force in the city. And as evident by the recent elections there are whole neighborhoods that are majority socialist. It's not a revolutionary paradise by any means, but when I walk down the street and see a free store, an info shop, multiple community centers, houses with "immigrants welcome" signs lining the street and even a church (which is predominantly white) proudly displaying a black lives matter banner, it sometimes feels like the revolution is right around the corner.


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