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Future of precious metals


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#1
bgates276

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So what do you guys think the future will be like for precious metals, such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium? With socialism on the rise, and the economy of the United States becoming more uncertain, I think there has never been a better time to get in on some.

 

For a long time, the US currency was based on a gold standard, but now it is simply a fiat based one. The problem as I see it, is that fiat based currencies seem to revert back to a value of zero because they arn't being backed by anything tangible. This ultimately leads to hyperinflation. In Venezuela right now, word is that an ounce of silver can buy six months of food.

 

Over the long term though, what will be the future of these commodities? Say, by the 2060's, will these materials have lost their value, if they can be produced by anyone at an atomic level with nano fabricators?  



#2
Jakob

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Say, by the 2060's, will these materials have lost their value, if they can be produced by anyone at an atomic level with nano fabricators?

It is impossible to do atomic transmutation in any remotely cost-effective fashion.

 

However, asteroid mining will likely reduce the prices by a great degree. Even a $10 billion mission to capture an asteroid will be cost effective if it can bring back $100 billion in precious metals. Prices will fall, but not by a ridiculous amount. More large-scale industrial applications of metals like platinum and gold will open up due to higher supply.


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#3
starspawn0

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40 out of 40 economists polled by the University of Chicago (well-known for its Libertarian leanings -- "The Chicago School"; "The Chicago Boys") either "disagree" or "strongly disagree" with this:
 

Question A: If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.


http://www.igmchicag...s/gold-standard

It's pretty uncontroversial among academic economists that the gold standard is a terrible idea, and that "fiat currency" does not automatically lead to hyperinflation. If you listen to someone like Peter Schiff or George Gilder, however, you will hear the exact opposite. These guys are part of a cult of goldbugs who frequently are seen on websites like zerohedge.com or lewrockwell.com.

This is not to say that the price of gold won't go up. There is such a thing as "noise traders" who may elevate the price of gold, in much the same was as Bitcoin investors do. If there are enough people who subscribe to "larger fool" trading, then it may actually be profitable to invest in gold.

Gold has some amount of industrial use; but nowhere near enough to support the price levels. Platinum has a lot more, and so does titanium.

#4
TranscendingGod

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"The price of gold had been fixed at thirty-five dollars an ounce since the Roosevelt administration. But the growing U.S. balance of payments deficit meant that foreign governments were accumulating large amounts of dollars- in aggregate volume far exceeding the U.S. government's stock of gold. These governments, or their central banks, could show up at any time at the "gold window" of the U.S. Treasury and insist on trading in their dollars for gold, which would precipitate a run. The issue was not theoretical. IN the second week of August 1971, the British ambassador turned up at the Treasury Department to request that $3 billion be converted into gold." - The Commanding Heights by Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw- pg 44


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#5
Alislaws

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Gold and precious metals tend to move counter to other investments, people invest in gold when they think the economy is going to tank, because when the economy tanks people who believe the world is ending start buying it to trade with other people after their nations currency collapses. 

 

Or at least they used to, now this spike in precious metal prices during a downturn is a predictable effect, so more people invest in gold whenever there is a downturn and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy driven by traders and investors rather than doomsday preppers. 

 

This is why a lot of articles about the inevitable and imminent collapse of various economies (or the world economy) seem to show up on gold trading sites. 



#6
CyberMisterBeauty

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In the future we will use nanotechnology to create new materials(even wholly made of non metals) that will look like , be stronger and replace most metals.We could mix different chemical elements to create wholly new kinds of matter and molecules and substances. In the far future, we would use matter replicators to create anything desireable.We could create infinite amounts of Gold, silver and even platimum, and make large objects made entirely by them.






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