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By 2015, we will "eliminate suffering and death due to cancer”

cancer eschenbach

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#1
funkervogt

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Quite a few eyebrows were raised in 2003, when Andrew von Eschenbach, director of the US National Cancer Institute (NCI), announced that the goal of the Institute would be to “eliminate suffering and death due to cancer” by 2015. Critics scoffed, calling the goal “unrealistic”, and they scolded him for “cruelly” raising false hopes among thousands of cancer patients and their families.

https://www.thelance...8718-7/fulltext

 

Eschenbach got his M.D. from Georgetown Medical School and became a surgeon, so he wasn't a dumb guy. After serving as director of the National Cancer Institute, he headed the FDA from 2006-09. He now runs some kind of consultant company, which probably pays well. 

 

It's shocking to see such a smart, well-credentialed person making a prediction that fell on its face so hard. 


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#2
Raklian

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That's why we shouldn't take any expert's prediction at face value. It's like that guy who said flying was impossible or that going faster than 45 mph would asphyxiate you.


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What are you without the sum of your parts?

#3
Sciencerocks

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Most of our predictions are going to be wrong.

 

Even 5 years out.

 

Hell, since we're becoming a religious shit hole most things will become impossible.



#4
TranscendingGod

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Well the diminution of cancer mortality has been marked, but he was off by a couple of years.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#5
tomasth

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it's difficult to make predictions especially about the future

 

funkervogt ,

I'm shocked that you think that its shocking to see such a smart, well-credentialed person making a prediction that fell on its face so hard.

Things change , his information were'nt complete.



#6
wjfox

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On current trends, it would take about 170 years to reach 100% in five-year survival rates. However, this doesn't take into account the impact of AI/other tech.



#7
TranscendingGod

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On current trends, it would take about 170 years to reach 100% in five-year survival rates. However, this doesn't take into account the impact of AI/other tech.

Yeah and some of that "other tech" is already in the pipeline.


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 






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