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#1
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

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Unemployment was low – calculated at only 3.2 percent. And during the years of Coolidge's presidency many people saw their lives as better than their parents' lives had been. Real wages for the skilled and unskilled were higher in the twenties than they had been at the beginning of the century, and real wages meant an improved quality of life. In general, the poor were healthier than they had been in previous decades.
The United States had its poor, some people with incomes too small for buying beyond bare subsistence. People working in coal mining and the textile or leather industries were suffering. Among the working poor were those who, if they were frugal and unburdened by health problems, could save a little money to invest in property or in advancing themselves in other ways. But they were a minority among the poor.
Manufactured goods still cost a lot more relative to family incomes than manufactured goods would in decades to come. And many families had incomes too low to afford labor saving devices such as vacuum cleaners and washing machines. A washing machine, for example, cost from 60 to 200 dollars, while the average factory worker was earning only about 100 dollars a month.
And pressure from organized labor for a greater share of wealth going to the common wage earning was down. By the late 1920s labor union membership was again below 11 percent of the labor force, down from 17 percent in 1924.
 
There were no food stamps, which would have created the greater demand that farmers needed for their products. There was still no social security as income for the elderly. There was no unemployment insurance. People were taking care of their own unemployed family members, their elderly, their brothers, brothers-in-law – compelling family togetherness.
The ability to produce had increased, but the ability to consume was limited. Free enterprise was not automatically was not producing in balance between the two. This had happened with grain production and the tractor in the early twenties. Farmers responded to the drop in grain prices (because of increased supply) and the individual farmer increased production even more to keep his income up. What was right for the individual didn't always correct an imbalance.
 
In manufacturing, businessmen were encouraged by a growth in sales. They were optimistic. Many who were warned about market saturation laughed. What was market saturation? For example, the number of people lacking alarm clocks had declined. And many who could afford cars had cars, with not enough people willing or able to buy a new car every year. Market saturation was not a concept readily understood. Want was infinite, but the wealth to buy was not. Over-production and declining profits was not a widely recognized phenomenon. Enthusiasm and optimism were patriotic, and the economy appeared healthy to many market watchers. But the boom years of 1925 and 1926 had tapered off. Production in the United States had begun to decline, most notably in automobiles and in building materials such as steel, rubber and other materials for the automobile. Home buying and home building were also down. Not enough people could afford to buy a home. Too many people were paying rent rather than making payments on their own home, a benefit to landlords but for common people an unfortunate distribution of wealth upwards.
Among people with money to invest, including bankers, there was a slowness in adjusting from the years of boom: 1925 and 1926. There was a failure in measuring the potential for profits, as if there were no limits. Many people with money to invest didn't notice the economic bubble in the making. Like many across the span of history, they were not as wise as they thought themselves to be.

 
 
Sound familiar, doesn't it? Except our youths aren't better off than our parents, the poor aren't healthier, and there's general malaise amongst most of the world. 
But we do have a GOP controlled government and a looming trade war! Hell, even nativism's back!


  • Casey likes this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

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In 1928, Herbert Hoover became the Republican Party's candidate for president, and Alfred Smith, governor of New York, was the candidate for the Democrats. Hoover and the Republicans played the role of the morally superior and supported prohibition, and they promised farm relief including higher tariffs against farm imports. The Republicans made much of Smith being from the big-city and a Catholic, and Smith's candidacy revived the Ku Klux Klan temporarily. Smith, on the other hand, opposed prohibition, and he and the Democrats described Republican policies as leaving "agriculture prostrate, industry depressed and workmen without employment." And the Democrats tried their hand on the morality issue and denounced what they called the "sordid corruption and unabashed rascality" of Republican rule. Their moralizing proved futile. Hoover won forty of the forty-eight states. And the Republicans retained their majorities, with 56 seats in the Senate against 39 for the Democrats, and 267 seats in the House against 167 for the Democrats.
Hoover's victory and reputation stimulated great hopes, causing Hoover concern that the nation was seeing him as too much of a superman. The year 1928 ended with the stock market industrial average up 48 percent for the year. As described on the previous page, economic dislocation, the relation between the ability to produce and the ability to consume was being ignored. So too was a speculation bubble. There was one aspect of the problem that Hoover did see: after he took office in March he continued what had been his criticism of excessive speculation and excessive use of borrowed money in buying stocks. He remained an economic conservative insofar as he believed that little government intervention in the economy was necessary during peacetime, but he believed that too much money was being put into unproductive speculation.
Hoover's powers over the stock market were limited. The Federal Reserve Board was an independent body, and the legal authority to curb Wall Street lay with the governor of New York rather than the President of the United States. And the new Governor of New York, Franklin D. Roosevelt, was one of those who dismissed Hoover's concerns. Until he had become governor-elect in November 1928, Roosevelt had been gleefully participating in the stock market boom. And others on Wall Street had joined Roosevelt's opposition to Hoover's views on the market, complaining in effect that if things were not broken no one should try to fix them.
After taking office on March 4, 1929, Hoover expressed concern about economic instability abroad, and he was concerned, too, about weakness or a lack of soundness in banking. He called on Congress to examine the banking structure and to recommend legislation. Congress ignored his request. Then he asked Congress to pass legislation that would require every commercial bank to join the Federal Reserve System and require banks to submit to inspections. Congress ignored these requests.
Buying on credit (borrowed money) by the middle and upper classes was extensive, and the Federal Reserve Board was concerned. The Board had been both raising and lowering interest rates, and when word spread that it might again raise interest rates – to discourage borrowing – the stock market dipped slightly. Then, instead of raising interest rates, the Board tried to discourage borrowing through moral persuasion. Interest rates remained low, which encouraged continued borrowing, and stocks recovered and continued their phenomenal rise.
Everybody with an extra dollar was investing in stocks, from the wealthy to the postman and the corner grocer. They believed that the United States was onto something good and that the boom would go on uninterrupted. There were investors who saw as reasonable the prices of stocks in relation to the earnings of the popular US companies. Among them were the British economist John Maynard Keynes and also Winston Churchill. But there was not a good amount of money available for bidding the prices of stocks higher and higher as some people were now investing were hoping would happen.
In August the US economy went into decline. Business had the good sense to slow production to meet the fact that buying was in decline. Production was falling at an annual rate of 20 percent and personal income for that August was down at an annual rate of 5 percent. Also in August came news from Britain that scared some investors in the United States. Talk had arisen of Britain raising its interest rates to stem its outflow of gold – the gold supply in Britain having become uncomfortably low, threatening British currency, which was pegged to gold. This, some believed, would attract money out of the US stock market and back to Britain. In August, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York increased its discount rate from 5 to 6 percent to restrict lending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise, reaching a new high on September 3, at 381.2. But later in the month stock prices leveled and began a moderate decline.
 
On October 11 the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 446, but there were not enough buyers to keep stocks climbing. A significant minority could impact the market by selling, and by October 21 the stock market had fallen back to 409 – a decline of eight percent in ten days.
Since 1927 from her New York City studio above Carnegie Hall, the famous fortune teller and astrologer Evangeline Adams had been forecasting rises in stock market prices. She was believed to have foretold Rudolph Valentino's death and to have prophesied the 1923 Tokyo earthquake. She had been selling a monthly newsletter to a readership of around 100,000, and four thousand people were writing her daily. A few of her clients were wealthy financiers, and a few, like Mary Pickford, were famous. On October 22, stock prices were to end the day up slightly. But just after noon Adams forecast that stocks would fall the next day. On the 23rd, stock prices rose in the morning. Then prices began a steep fall. And by the end of the trading day, stock prices were down 7.5 percent, with the ticker tape 1.5 hours in delay. It was the second largest day in trading volume in the exchange's history.
The following day is known as Black Thursday. There were many more who wanted to sell than buy, making falling prices, and stock prices declined 3.2 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down to 372. People flocked to Adam's studio for guidance. She told them of a favorable conjunction and interrelationship of certain planets that were creating "spheres of influence over susceptible groups," and she predicted good times ahead. After the last of her clients had wandered away, her broker told her she was down $100,000. Apparently stocks had declined more than she had expected, and apparently her loss caused her to panic. Lacking confidence in the forecast she had given her clients, she told her broker to sell at the opening of the market the following day.
The following day, Friday the 25th, the market held, closing at 372. On Saturday, the market dropped another 1.5 percent, to 367. On Monday came the market's biggest slide, falling nearly 12 percent, to 318. On the 29th it dropped another 13.5 percent, to 275. It was a thirty-three percent drop in one week.  Investors who had bought stocks on credit had lost enough in the value of their stocks that they were obliged to pay back the loans. If they could not pay they were obliged to sell their stocks, and many who had bought stocks on borrowed money lost all of their stocks. Some lost all they had invested and their life savings, and some of these people were still in debt. A few who lost everything committed suicide.
For every seller there had to be a buyer. Some, in other words, were still buying stocks, believing that at lower prices the stocks were a bargain. A short rally began. On October 30 and 31 stock prices surged to 327 – a nineteen percent gain in two days. But during November, prices began drifting lower again, to 238.95, below what prices had been on the dark day of October 29. I
In December, stock prices steadied, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the year at 248. For the year, the Dow was down only twelve percent, and stock prices were well above what they had been in 1927 and 1928. But enthusiasm for investing had declined. The shine was off the market. Newspapers and journals were focused on the decline in the value of stock market equities, and some were editorializing with cries of shame. A few people believed that the stock market had made a normal correction and would now begin to recover. And stock prices began a minor recovery into April 1930, causing some people to believe that the bull market had returned. But, in late April, the Dow began falling again. In May, Hoover announced that "we have passed the worst." But more decline was on the way.

 

Oooh, can't wait to see how things go to hell today. 

And you know China's gonna profit from all this. They're already spreading their power into Oceania, via New Zealand and Australia. I can only imagine what will happen in this upcoming downturn when the CCP are able to stoke tensions to shatter the USA.

Because you see, the US doesn't see China the same way we saw the Soviet Union. The Chinese have so perfectly disguised their brand of Marxism as capitalism that Westerners don't see any sort of existential cultural threat posed by the Chinese. Hell, I've seen more conservatives praise China than liberals, while leftists say China is not their comrade. 

I wonder if they'll maintain this attitude when you see these sights in America and Britain:

BN-MZ997_cflag1_G_20160310051637.jpg

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Comunismo_woflsonian.jpg


  • Erowind likes this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
Erowind

Erowind

    Psychonaut, Aspiring Mathematician and Anarchist

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To answer your question I see real leftists moving underground and quietly influencing society in the same way we did during the 1950s in America. I'd have to scan them in because they're only in physical form to my knowledge, but I was reading some zines from the 80s talking about how anarchists during that during time opted to gain influential positions in society, network with one another, and gradually push socially and economically progressive thought as revolution was utterly hopeless at the time. Think people becoming doctors, professors, engineers and the like and using their positions to push that agenda. Openly declaring oneself a leftist at the time was a social, political and professional death sentence.


Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: 1928, 1929, Great Depression, Pre-Depression, Roaring 20s, economic collapse, economics, Herbert Hoover, Donald Trump, USA

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