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In five years, VR could be as big in the US as Netflix (says PWC)


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#1
starspawn0

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https://qz.com/12985...rs-study-shows/


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#2
Zaphod

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I concur that VR and AR are going to be huge faster than many think. I now almost exclusively play VR games over flat games and spend an hour or so a day (quite a lot for me as I have a busy job with little free time) on it. Yet I am clear just how limited and crappy VR is now compared to how it will be a few years from now. The social side is only just in its very infancy, yet is already pretty addictive. The exercise aspects are transformative for a lot of people that get bored lifting weights or doing repetitive exercises. The gaming worlds are so much more immersive and compelling than their pancake versions - I never really got into Skyrim before, but in VR I am slightly addicted. Its function in business, education, workshops, research, healthcare and fitness, social events, art, cinema, live events, live sport etc. are only just being explored and it will certainly infiltrate all these areas.


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#3
starspawn0

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To really take off, I think it needs to be:

 
* Inexpensive ($200 or less)
 
* Mobile, wireless, light weight -- something like the Magic Leap form-factor, if technically possible, given the other constraints.
 
* Instant-on.  No waiting 10 seconds to load, health warnings to click through -- it should load up the home screen instantly.
 
* 6DF tracking.  3DF weakens immersion experience.
 
* At least 100 or 110 degree FOV.  
 
* High resolution.
 
* Input from a device like CTRL-Labs for hand-tracking, or a BCI.  Also ability to interpret gestures.
 
* At least about 20 to 50 quality apps (like Netflix) and games.  Most current apps are garbage.
 
 
We might see all that in 5 years.  They'll be as cheap and easy to replace as a Chromebook (the Oculus Go is only $250 -- think where it will be in 5 years), and the experience will be mind-blowing.

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#4
Zaphod

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I think we are only going to see relatively slow, but significant growth in the VR market for the next 2-3 years. Like starspawn0 lists, VR is still too expensive, niche and cumbersome to use for the majority of consumers. What we have seen from E3 so far is that it looks like the major game studios are still reluctant to move fully into VR (even in games to be released 2-3 years from now) because of the small size of the market relative to the whole gaming community. It's up to the hardware to improve in cost and function before the software follows.  

 

What I find funny is seeing a lot of people on forums interpret this "slow" growth in the VR market (I actually think "slow" is highly inaccurate - it's an emerging market in its embryonic stages and the major headset companies have been happy with sales) as VR being dead and how it will remain as a niche peripheral for the foreseeable future.The same sentiments were made about the internet in the early '90s and they were embarrassingly wrong in less than 5 years.


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#5
starspawn0

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PWC is projecting a 40% global annual growth rate through 2022.  VR is more popular in some countries than in others.  It is growing faster in China, for example, than in the U.S.  

 

But the market is still small.  I'm unsure about the current growth rate.

 

IDC is also predicting rapid growth:

 

https://www.idc.com/...Id=prUS43639318

 

They predict an even higher growth rate of 52.5%!  That's incredibly fast!


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#6
Alislaws

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Ultimately the biggest barrier to adoption IMO is lack of high quality games and other applications. Hardware feels ahead of software at the moment. 

 

As a gamer, the problem I have with VR, is I would be paying £800 in order to play Elite: Dangerous and Skyrim/Fallout VR (buggy ports of games I already own for PC non-vr, which have not been designed with VR in mind) and a wide selection of what are effectively tech demos.

 

Honestly, though I'm not a fan myself, a PSVR compatible FIFA game with really good polish on it could probably double or triple the PSVR penetration here in the UK if it came out this year.

 

Good​ virtual meeting software is the biggest enabler to mass commercial VR adoption. 

If you can sit in a meeting room, put on a HMD and experience a face to face meeting with a colleague round the world in which either of you can manipulate the space around you to show work, and view documents and otherwise collaborate. Businesses would think nothing of sending £5k on a VR system for every office, or even setting employees p to work form home.  

 

There are also no fully complete VR compatible CAD Programs (as far as I know), No one can really use VR for design work or similar, in spite of how great that could be to do. 

 

It would be awesome if China, or South Korea or Japan manage to get serious adoption going, then we might get enough decent ports and translated versions of quality software that VR becomes a good option over here. 


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