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Complex organ replacements grown from stem cells by 2020 too optimistic?


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#41
Raklian

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I agree that new technologies always start as more expensive than it costs later. Now, the question is, how fast will it get cheap enough for the masses to utilize it? Too many variables to count.
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#42
Raklian

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Some types of replacement organs will definitely get cheaper faster than others, depending on their complexity.

Edited by Raklian, 14 June 2012 - 07:26 PM.

What are you without the sum of your parts?

#43
msanta89

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There are millions of people that wait for an organ transplant every day many of which die waiting. While I agree there are many variables to consider I think a lack of urgency is not one of them. The real question is if if the bio tech/drug companies see the profit potential. If they do I think you will see it become more available a lot quicker.

#44
msanta89

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Some types of replacement organs will definitely get cheaper faster than others, depending on their complexity.


True.

#45
Raklian

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There are millions of people that wait for an organ transplant every day many of which die waiting. While I agree there are many variables to consider I think a lack of urgency is not one of them. The real question is if if the bio tech/drug companies see the profit potential. If they do I think you will see it become more available a lot quicker.


See, the fact there are already millions people who want an organ transplant will make it easier for the organ manufacturors to charge their products at an outrageous price. It is the law of demand & supply. The only way to make them affordable is if the government subsidies them via a revamped healthcare system.
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#46
Italian Ufo

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It is not just a matter of money but even safety. Medicine is not mathemathics.

#47
Raklian

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It is not just a matter of money but even safety. Medicine is not mathemathics.


Of course, and it is many things.
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#48
Anu

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From 2030 and on than we start to reason...something will be possible but still things will be under scrupolus observation.


yes surely the tests and regulations and burocracy in general will be the greatest delay before reaches the public

Edited by Anu, 14 June 2012 - 08:18 PM.


#49
kjaggard

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I think you guys are forgetting one key factor here. Patient 1 is going to die without a new liver. There may be no long term studies on the value of stem cell created livers but to patient 1, a three month survival rate is tripling life expectancy. Stem cells do not have the same risk profile to the patient, environment and other people as chemical and foriegn biologicals do either. So there may be some risk of rejection, but more than likely the biggest risk is it doesn't work as well as a healthy organ... neither did the original. Theres also the fact that this doesn't have to be an all or nothing procedure. I seem to remember years ago they made a mechanical artificial heart they've implanted in a few people along side the failing organic heart. The mechanical can fuction as a less than perfect heart all alone, but when the two are put together it actually helped the organic hearts improve their condition and improved survival rate and quality of life. No hearts are going to be one of the hard ones of course, especially in repair rather than replacement. as it's fibers and their directions and ability to contract at differing rates and carry electrical and blood flow are very complicated and hard jobs. Things like pancreas function have been found to be restored by taking stem cell clusters from a section of brain tissue and simply injecting/grafting them into the failing pancreas. Livers grow really well given the right environment. Cartelage, bone, skin, blood vessels, bladders, esophegus, ... basically there are a lot of tissues that a cell covered scaffold would do the job well enough to keep a persona alive where they might otherwise die. and in many cases restore some amount of quality of life. Then you can improve the treatments. I don't know about you but I'd replacing an organ every five to ten years over being dead. And it's more likely that a company will earn income from people who live than those that die. Basically the more people who would have died but now live there are the bigger your customer base is, and the more data on the procedures and their effects you can gather. And another few things to keep in mind: who says that a whole healthy human organ is the way the first generation and subsequent generations of the procedure would be done? Need a pangreas, take a sixth of a pigs pancreas, de-cell it to get the scaffolding, populate it with human stem cells from the patient, graft next to the failing original. Need a kidney, take stemcells and create samples that generate the hormone production and other biochemical aspects of the organ and add those to a mechanical pump filter to function as a replacement. Need lungs, take one lobe from four differing live human donors and one animal donor clean then of cells and use setmcells to repopulate them. Meanwhile donors can have replacement lobes of animal lobes to restore them to full function. Bones: easier. Skin: easier, Some of these things we don't even need donors for we can sculpt scaffolds so long as nerve and circulatory flow through the tissue is not a big factor (nose, ears, ect). I for one will likely need a new intestine before 2035 unless they find a way to halt the progression of my disease. It's not so much that the intestine will fail completely as an organ, but that cumulative damage will prevent it from doing the job which keeps me alive. Surgical interventions will remove damaged sections that risk obstructions or tears that could cause sepsis ect. So eventually they will whittle away peice after peice of my intestines and my ability to get sustainance from food will decrease. Meanwhile the site of surgeries become additional sites for symptomes and further problems. Research like this: http://extremelongev...cial-intestine/ edit: lol wrong link the first time. Has promise that some day a scaffold may be taken from an animal source, cleaned and populated with my own stemcells, grown inside my own body and when it's ready swapped for the damaged and diseased one which will be removed when the healthy one is fully functioning on it's own. When all is said and done there will be two scar sections instead of multiple and a chance of ten to fifteen years of use likely before another surgery is needed or a cure is found. I'll take those odds over pain and Illostomy which 40% fail to stop the progression. Over short bowel disease, and drugs that compromise other organs health and immune system functions. As for supply and demand, if the demand is high enough the procedure cost may be high to start with because the techniques and those qualified to do them would be short supply... so we need to flood the supply side. There are going to be plenty of demand side cases early on to justify it. And as soon as supply is less restricted prices drop. If you can open the market to non urgent care and proceedures (*cough* mammary tissues *cough*, 'male enhancment', more complete facial restructuring) you can increase refinment and training of the basic techniques (creating more supply) make it profitable for the companies to pursue and create competition to drive costs done and skill up. You want a real publicity stunt and major market driver for this. Transgender people. The day you manage to turn a woman into a functional if infertile male (bone shaping and structure, phaloplasty, prostate, larynx, ect), and turn a male into a functional but infertile woman (bones, vaginoplasty, womb, larynx, mammary, ect.. possibly even able to carry an implanted child to term), I guarentee you will have the transgendered people from around the world coming to the country who masters it first to get the process done and we will see surgical vacationers from around the world bringing tourist bussiness to our countries. And start to make it clear that other procedures like the ones mention above are available too and there will be a boom in stemcell based transplant medical science. I mean if they can turn a guy into a girl and a girl into a guy, then they can take an ordinary guy and make him even more manly right :o check Thailand surgery vacations if you don't believe me. So I would say there is hope for rapid progress if only we can find a way to get past the "it might kill the patient so we won't allow it at all" phase with voluntary procedures offered to those with little to no other option (hopefully with price at cost for materials, and with private and public funding to advance it). I mean if we can spend billions on getting healthy people to commit to dieing to go shoot each other, getting dieing people to commit to something that might save them completely or give them longer until we can should be easier.

Edited by kjaggard, 15 June 2012 - 03:35 AM.

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#50
Lily

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That's all very interesting and while I really hope that it comes soon, I am not sure how soon. 2020 sounds too good to be true, in my opinion. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Things like this really enhance my wish to study something in this field. I'd like to work with stem cells etc... ah, well, off topic ;) After reading your comments about funding and the potential market for this (heart) and all the other replacement organs etc. I suddenly had to think about teeth. Does somebody know where we at now? Are there news as of yet? I read several articles mentioning Dr. Jeremy Mao, and he seemed to be quite postive without boasting about the subject. After all, it would be a HUGE market for this, wouldn't it? There's so many people who have problematic teeth, no teeth at all or some other problems with their denture/gums. I imagine Hollywood to be a big factor in this. Actors have to be perfect and rich people are already bleaching and using veneers etc. to cover up their faulty teeth, so a technique for regrowing teeth should be a good idea? People love a white, healthy smile... In my mind, a tooth would be perfect for studying the effects and safety of replacements organs grown with stem cells. If it should fail somehow, you could still just pull the tooth. And it is relatively simple to see how it develops? People would have to go to the dentist like they do today, and you could se the progress right in their mouth without as much imaging necessary as in other fields like cardiology and neurology. It would be, I think, a lot safer than root canal procedures and implants, which have a risk of infection and often entail consequent problems and symptoms. Fillings, too. What do you think? What do you know? When are going to grow our own teeth and render the tooth fairy jobless? :D [Although I still see the problem that dentistry could slower this progress - replacement teeth grown right with the patients stem cell would harm many companies quite a lot!]

Edited by Lily, 25 June 2012 - 02:11 PM.

"All scientific advancement due to intellegence overcoming, compensating, for limitations. Can't carry a load, so invent wheel. Can't catch food, so invent spear. Limitations. No limitations, no advancement. No advancement, culture stagnates. Works other way too. Advancement before culture is ready. Disastrous."

There's definitely truth in that...


#51
MarcusAurelius

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An interesting link I found about organ replacement, well not necessarily stem cell in this case. But viable for the future nonetheless. http://www.yoluca.co...ve-sight-blind/

#52
kjaggard

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That's all very interesting and while I really hope that it comes soon, I am not sure how soon. 2020 sounds too good to be true, in my opinion. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Things like this really enhance my wish to study something in this field. I'd like to work with stem cells etc... ah, well, off topic ;)

After reading your comments about funding and the potential market for this (heart) and all the other replacement organs etc. I suddenly had to think about teeth.
Does somebody know where we at now? Are there news as of yet? I read several articles mentioning Dr. Jeremy Mao, and he seemed to be quite postive without boasting about the subject. After all, it would be a HUGE market for this, wouldn't it? There's so many people who have problematic teeth, no teeth at all or some other problems with their denture/gums. I imagine Hollywood to be a big factor in this. Actors have to be perfect and rich people are already bleaching and using veneers etc. to cover up their faulty teeth, so a technique for regrowing teeth should be a good idea? People love a white, healthy smile...

In my mind, a tooth would be perfect for studying the effects and safety of replacements organs grown with stem cells. If it should fail somehow, you could still just pull the tooth. And it is relatively simple to see how it develops? People would have to go to the dentist like they do today, and you could se the progress right in their mouth without as much imaging necessary as in other fields like cardiology and neurology. It would be, I think, a lot safer than root canal procedures and implants, which have a risk of infection and often entail consequent problems and symptoms. Fillings, too.
What do you think? What do you know? When are going to grow our own teeth and render the tooth fairy jobless? :D

[Although I still see the problem that dentistry could slower this progress - replacement teeth grown right with the patients stem cell would harm many companies quite a lot!]


I like your thinking. Teeth are in the foundational stages of development as my understanding of it goes. The most recent I've read is that they have grown full tooth 'buds' under the gum from stemcells taken from wisdom teeth.

So the people most likely to benefit from new teeth being grown are those that still have wisdom teeth because they are an execellent source of dental stem cells. To the best of my knowledge they haven't figured out a reliable way to get any other stem cells to become teeth, and they can pick and choose which tooth it becomes.

So in all likelihood it will first be replacing molars and that would involve extraction of the damaged molar. Placement of a bud in the socket and healing the gum. Once it could then take months or more to have the new tooth fully formed and brake the gums surface like when we are teething.

An easier way would be to try growing teeth in a lab and implanting them at the time of extraction. Which would give a lot more control over placement ect, but getting the lab part done would be more difficult to grow a full sized tooth and keep it alive outside the patient.

I'd say we are a good 4 years from them being able to do that, and another 5 to 7 years for approval to do it in a clinical procedure. Three years after that we may see it done as cosmetic surgery. and around that time they will be looking at maybe being able to grown teeth for those of us who have lost even our wisdom teeth and have no dental stem cells.

Oddly enough teeth seem to be both easier and harder to do. They are are not a moving multi-layer endocrine producing and blood filtering organ, they are pretty straight forward. But they have to mineralise properly, they set into bone there are twenty eight of them and they each are a bit different and yet must fit together and in the right order. The making teeth would be the easy part, keeping them alive, getting the right teeth and making sure they formed properly and getting them into the jaw would be hard.

It might be easier just to grow a whole bottom jaw with teeth and then transplant the teeth from one to the other in a full graft.

Whereas the studies of heart stem cell and soft tissues right now are looking at injected batches and sheets grown in dishes grafted to the existing organ. It's easier when they don't have to grow a whole organ or build specific structures with them. Replacing healthy cells for damaged ones in some sections of the body.
Live content within small means. Seek elegance rather than luxury, Grace over fashion and wealth over riches.
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#53
inkybinky3

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this might mean better transition for transgenders!



#54
Frizz

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I think 2040 also.
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#55
Lily

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^ For 'everything'?

I think some organs won't be long, others might take some more time.

What do you think will become reality in the next 10 to 15 years? I'd guess we'll see cartilage,bones and maybe even teeth first.


"All scientific advancement due to intellegence overcoming, compensating, for limitations. Can't carry a load, so invent wheel. Can't catch food, so invent spear. Limitations. No limitations, no advancement. No advancement, culture stagnates. Works other way too. Advancement before culture is ready. Disastrous."

There's definitely truth in that...


#56
Roh234

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Not really I know some profs who are working with stem cells. They are really not going too much in their work before it is published but they are optimistic of what is happening in their lab.


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#57
José Andrade

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With the speed everything is going it won't be long. The easiest ones and maybe even some not so easy by 2020. Then complicated things like sexual organs by 2030.


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