16 replies to this topic

[Futurist]

Obviously this is Will Fox's website and he should thus make the final decision in regards to this, but I really think that the 2082 prediction about the US losing the Southwest to Mexico should be removed. Basically:

 

-There does not appear to be a large irredentist movement in the Southwestern US.

-As long as Mexico will remain significantly poorer than the US, I don't expect such a movement to become popular on a large scale.

-As long as Mexico's average IQ will remain significantly below that of the US, Mexico is likely to remain significantly poorer than the US.

-The US isn't going to give up any US state without war. Its experience crushing the Confederacy is proof of that.

-Even if the Southwest will be something like 60% Hispanic by 2082, you'd still need to get something like 80% of Hispanics on board for secession to actually get majority support in the Southwest (considering that I suspect that very few non-Hispanics would support this). I mean, it's not completely impossible, but you'd need Hispanics to really form a strong separatist movement for that to happen. Also, it doesn't help the cause of secession that Hispanics sometimes intermarry with non-Hispanics.

 

Anyway, any thoughts on my suggestion here?

 

https://www.futureti...o-usa-territory

[Futurist]

Also, for what it's worth, I support allowing any U.S. state which isn't completely surrounded by U.S. territory to secede if a majority of the voters there actually want this. (The Confederacy doesn't count in regards to this due to their staunch support for slavery.) However, I really do strongly love this country and thus certainly hope that this country never fragments or breaks up.

[Jakob]

Yeah, it's never gonna happen.

[funkervogt]

I agree it should be removed.

[Erowind]

I completely disagree and the possibility is there. This anti immigration neo-protectionist version of the United States won't last until 2082, that's not how political and sociocultural trends work. Moreover, there doesn't need to be an irredentist movement in the US now for there to be one in 60 years. And even though I think the 80% number is a little out of reach, it's within the realm of possibility that Hispanics, Amerindians and Mestizos make up that much of the population in the southwest due to what will be massive climate migration at that point. Finally 80% of the population wanting to leave isn't required either, even a popular revolt of a measly 15-20% would be enough to tip the scales. Expecting people to remain peaceful voting citizens over this sort of thing is unrealistic especially when we consider that many of the climate refugees likely won't be citizens.

Edit: Bonus, the US will probably be a first rate regional power at best by 2082 anyways, so it's ability to violently supress this sort of thing will also likely be diminished.

[PhoenixRu]

64 years from now? You should clearly understand how risky it is to make ANY exact politics-related predictions. A lot of things (incl. world war(s) with mass migrations and redrawing of current borders) may happen by then...

[wjfox]

Perhaps we need a poll to determine the fate of this prediction. I don't really mind either way. Happy to keep, or delete.

[Jakob]

Perhaps we need a poll to determine the fate of this prediction. I don't really mind either way. Happy to keep, or delete.

Yes, let's have a poll.

[wjfox]

Poll added. I also edited your post, Futurist, to include a link to the prediction.

[Futurist]

Poll added. I also edited your post, Futurist, to include a link to the prediction.

OK; good.

[Outlook]

Yeah, it's never gonna happen.

[Futurist]

I completely disagree and the possibility is there. This anti immigration neo-protectionist version of the United States won't last until 2082, that's not how political and sociocultural trends work. Moreover, there doesn't need to be an irredentist movement in the US now for there to be one in 60 years. And even though I think the 80% number is a little out of reach, it's within the realm of possibility that Hispanics, Amerindians and Mestizos make up that much of the population in the southwest due to what will be massive climate migration at that point. Finally 80% of the population wanting to leave isn't required either, even a popular revolt of a measly 15-20% would be enough to tip the scales. Expecting people to remain peaceful voting citizens over this sort of thing is unrealistic especially when we consider that many of the climate refugees likely won't be citizens.

Edit: Bonus, the US will probably be a first rate regional power at best by 2082 anyways, so it's ability to violently supress this sort of thing will also likely be diminished.

I didn't say that Hispanics would need to be 80% of the total population in the Southwest. Rather, what I said is that around 80% of the total Hispanic population in the Southwest would need to support secession in order to make it a reality.

 

Also, there is no way in hell that the U.S. would allow territories to secede without a referendum--and even with a referendum is strongly stretching the limits of plausibility. Thus, a rebellion of 15-20% won't matter much if the rebels can't get a majority of the population to support their cause.

 

As for climate refugees, why exactly would they want to secede and join Mexico--a country which would probably be more affected by climate change than the U.S. would? Plus, citizens or not, Hispanics in the U.S. benefit from affirmative action--and if this continues until 2082, this would be another reason for Hispanics in the U.S. to oppose secession.

[TranscendingGod]

I don't think the proposed scenario is likely but for reasons other than the ones you stated. I'd like to distance myself from such misguided deduction so I offer this disclaimer in case my support is misconstrued as support for the lackadaisical rationale propounded on this thread. 

[Futurist]

I don't think the proposed scenario is likely but for reasons other than the ones you stated. I'd like to distance myself from such misguided deduction so I offer this disclaimer in case my support is misconstrued as support for the lackadaisical rationale propounded on this thread. 

What's your explanation for your opposition to this prediction?

[wjfox]

https://youtu.be/_gBYkPgmrP4

[Futurist]

https://youtu.be/_gBYkPgmrP4

Thanks, Will!

 

BTW, holding a vote on this was a great idea on your part!

[Radioajo]

Many of the "remove it" comments here are just expressions of dislike toward the general idea, and most arguments simply disqualify Mexicans or Mexico as if the world wasn't already interconnected and international borders weren't fading away. Migration will continue simply because it did so throughout the twentieth century and it is only increasing in this one, as it is elsewhere. 

 

The initial argument makes perfect sense to me since some cities and areas in southern states, especially in California, are already indistinguishable from places in Mexico. Use street view. Even if these states are not returned to Mexico, it is true that a whole nation will develop within the US, and it will be a mixture of the Mexican and American cultures. If Mexico does emerge as a key economic player and levels up to a certain degree with the US, it is likely that the majority of Hispanic population will prefer to join Mexico after all. Nationalism will play a big role. In an alternative scenario, besides the increased autonomy of these states, is one or many new countries.