President Trump... so much to unpack here. As others have said it's difficult to guess just what the man's going to do, as he's already broadcasted that he intends to be unpredictable. I'm going to lay out a few scenarios here, some very optimistic given what's just happened, some very pessimistic, all of them plausible. The sheer diversity of these possible futures tells me just how uncertain a time we are now living in.
Best case scenario: US financial system melts down, Trump is paralysed and thereby discredited, GOP fractures internally, Democrats radically reform under someone like Sanders and regain control in the next election. US takes the lead in ending the Great Depression with a 21st century New Deal that redistributes wealth and restores power to the people. I wouldn't bet on this outcome. Way too many things have to go right all at once.
Banality of evil: Trump is frustrated to discover the bureaucracy of government doesn't work quite the way he wanted, and becomes increasingly disillusioned with it. Eventually he leaves office and is replaced by someone the country finds more palatable as the Republicans struggle to placate the increasingly angry and radical left. This basically works, and things normalise somewhat, as the left settles into the new shitty normal, and the right begins to realise there really is no way out for them. The neocon Republicans are able to instate all sorts of awful changes in their four years and may then retain power for another four years. The American people are financially and spiritually broken, and put up little resistance as their country, and the world, spirals into extremism, totalitarianism and rapid climate change.
Trump retains power: Trump's presidency is extremely controversial and divisive. Despite having unprecedented levels of control over the US government, he finds himself unable to deliver on many of his campaign promises due to a shattered economy and changing technological trends. This leads to disillusionment among his voter base and a deeper sense of dissatisfaction among a nation that never really wanted him to begin with. Nonetheless, he is able to win the next election because the Democrats aren't going to learn their lesson within the next four years and will remain useless. His first term will end with the biggest global conflict since WWII: China and North Korea vs US, Japan, South Korea, Australia and others, which will carry on well into his second term. He will also become the first president to use nuclear weapons in anger since Truman. I think this is the most likely but it's very hard to tell from here.
Worst case scenario: The political and business establishments do not play ball with Trump, and fires stoke all throughout the country, eventually flaring into open insurrection. America descends into civil war. The entire world plunges into chaos and possibly world war. I don't think this will happen either, but considering fights have already broken out across the country and he's not even in yet, and the economy is yet to break down...
Some general predictions that could apply in most or all of the above scenarios:
- TPP will be redrafted and ostensibly destroyed, but it isn't really going away.
- Climate change and ecological destruction will accelerate, however, this will cause a radical backlash in many parts of the world and they'll go very green.
- Centrism is dead. Everyone's going far right, far left, far up and far out in the near future.
- The quasi Cold War bullshit with Russia will tone down and we'll avoid nuclear armageddon.
- US relations with radical right countries improve. Relations with centrist countries deteriorate.
- The Iran nuclear deal is definitely getting scrapped and we're back to open hostility with Iran, interpret this as a good or bad.
- Obamacare is gone, it was dead in the water anyway.
- Yes, Trump really will fire Janet Yellen, and by the time he does, trust me, it's going to feel really cathartic.
- Severe resistance from many echelons of American society will lead to a strong underground counterculture (this is the revolution we've been waiting for).
- There will be crackdowns on illegal immigrants. I have no idea how Trump will go making Mexico build a wall. I expect him to be ruthless.
- Surveillance state and executive powers are both going to get a lot worse.
- Rules of engagement will become more brutal, more effective in specific theatres, but more aggravating overall, leading to a further increase in terrorism and conflict. War crimes, torture and indefinite detention are going up to the next level.
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