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2020 US Presidential Election


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#2001
Jessica

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Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +9

 

Sep 15-17, 834 LV, MoE: 3.9%

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 42% (+1)

Trump approval (RV): 42/55 (-13, was 42/56)

https://www.ipsos.co..._09_18_2020.pdf



#2002
Jessica

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Civiqs: Biden +11 in MI, -3 in OH, +7 in PA, +7 in WI

 

MI (517 RV)
Biden 53% (+4)
Trump 42% (-4)

OH (556 RV)
Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 45% (-2)

PA (704 RV)
Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 45% (+1)

WI (549 RV)
Biden 51% (nc)
Trump 44% (-1)

https://rustbeltrising.com/resources/



#2003
Jessica

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ZZwq-rbV_bigger.jpg
 
 
 
BREAKING: In MAJOR Victory for voting rights in Michigan. Court rules:
 
Ballots postmarked by 11/2 & received w/in 14 days of E-Day to be counted.
 
Ballot collection allowed from the Friday before Election Day through E-Day Congrats @prioritiesUSA


#2004
caltrek

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A Federal Judge Says United States Postal Service Delays Were an “Intentional Effort” to Undermine Fair Elections

 

https://www.motherjo...fair-elections/

 

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) A federal judge blocked a series of actions implemented by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy that have led to widespread mail delays, calling them “an intentional effort on the part of the current Administration to disrupt and challenge the legitimacy of upcoming local, state, and federal elections.”

 

In a strongly worded opinion released Thursday, District Court Judge Stanley A. Bastian of Washington state issued a nationwide injunction prohibiting DeJoy from implementing changes ranging from cutting overtime to removing 671 mail sorting machines to forcing mail trucks to leave on time even if the mail is not ready .


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#2005
wjfox

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Polls show Susan Collins below 50% support in Maine

Updated 1858 GMT (0258 HKT) September 18, 2020

Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has well below 50% support in a pair of new polls released this week, showing just how precarious her reelection bid is weeks before voters decide her political fate in the toughest campaign of her career.

Collins' Democratic challenger, Maine state House Speaker Sara Gideon, currently holds 49% to the senator's 44%, according to a new poll released Friday from The New York Times and Siena College, results that are within the poll's sampling error margin.

The survey's finding is far tighter than a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week showing Gideon with a wide, 54% to 42% advantage over Collins.

The polls underscore how high the stakes are for Collins with just under 50 days until the election. Her race is regarded as one of the most competitive Senate races this cycle. The senator's expensive competition against Gideon could prove to be a make-or-break moment for her four-term career in the chamber.

https://edition.cnn....nate/index.html


9Vr4jnd.jpg



#2006
wjfox

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rlRb2rI.jpg



#2007
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#2008
Jessica

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NBC/WSJ: Biden +8%

 

https://assets.docum...tember-Poll.pdf
September 13-16
1000 registered voters
MoE: 3.1%
Changes with August 9-12 poll

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 43% (+3)
Neither/other 3% (-2)
Not sure 3% (-1)



#2009
Jessica

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CNN rating changes: AZ and WI to Lean D, NE-02 and PA to Tossup

 

Biden continues to demonstrate real strength with suburban voters, independent voters, women, seniors, White college-educated voters and voters of color and even has a decent foothold with White non-college-educated voters. That demographic portfolio is what is helping the Biden team move both Wisconsin and Arizona -- two of the most critical states on the board -- from that true battleground category to now leaning Democratic. After seeing the battle for the single electoral vote in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (Omaha area) become much more engaged over the last month, it has become clear that that contest is no longer a Republican leaner but a straight up battleground
...The one move that we are making in the President's direction is the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, as we move its 20 electoral votes from leaning Democratic to a straight-up battleground. Of the three so-called blue wall states that Trump busted through four years ago, Pennsylvania may be the best proving ground for Team Trump to pursue its theory of the case that it can produce an outsized turnout of primarily non-college-educated White male voters to deliver yet another victory in a state that had been Democratic for more than a generation in presidential campaigns prior to 2016.
However, Pennsylvania may end up being the most temporary of all of these moves. The polling there clearly shows a slight edge for Biden, and the demographics of the state play to some of his unique strengths this election season. Last week's court rulings preventing the Green Party candidate from appearing on the ballot and extending the window for when absentee ballots can be received after Election Day in order to still be counted were also welcome developments to the Democrats in this state. Yet, both the Trump and Biden campaigns currently believe Pennsylvania is going to be a hotly contested state all the way through to Election Day so we have moved it to our battleground category for now.

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/...o-go/index.html



#2010
Jessica

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Sep 11-16

PA (611 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 49%
Trump 46%

WI (609 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

https://www.reuters....e/idUSKCN26C31N



#2011
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Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in MI, tied in NC

 

MI (637 LV, MoE: 4.4%)
Biden 49%
Trump 44%

SEN: Peters 49-43 (+6)
GCB: D 47-43 (+4)

Trump approval: 42/54 (-12)

Favorabilities:
Trump 44/56 (-12)
Biden 53/47 (+6)
Harris 53/47 (+6)
Pence 48/52 (-4)

https://www.ipsos.co..._09_22_2020.pdf

NC (586 LV, MoE: 4.6%)
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

SEN: Cunningham 48-44 (+4)
GCB: D 48-47 (+1)

Trump approval: 44/52 (-8)

Favorabilities:
Trump 47/53 (-6)
Biden 56/44 (+12)
Harris 52/48 (+4)
Pence 51/49 (+2)

https://www.ipsos.co..._09_22_2020.pdf



#2012
Jessica

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YouGov/Economist: Biden +7%

https://docs.cdn.you...onTabReport.pdf

September 20-22
1124 likely voters
MoE not given, but 3.6% for 1282 registered voters
Changes with September 13-15 poll

Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Other 2% (+1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 6% (+1)



#2013
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Change Research: Biden +9 nationally, leads all battleground states

 

September 18-20, in the field post-RBG death

Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 42 (-1)

AZ
Biden 49 (=)
Trump 43 (-2)

FL
Biden 49 (=)
Trump 46 (=)

MI
Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 43 (=)

NC
Biden 48 (-1)
Trump 46 (-1)

PA
Biden 49 (-1)
Trump 45 (-1)

WI
Biden 51 (+1)
Trump 42 (-2)

Changes from their last poll (Sept 4-6)

https://changeresear...ground-wave-14/



#2014
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AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

https://www.langerre...rounds-FLAZ.pdf

September 15-20

AZ
579 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 4.5%

Trump 49%
Biden 48%
Neither 2%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

FL
613 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 4.5%

Trump 51%
Biden 47%
Neither 1%
Other 0% (no voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%



#2015
Jessica

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Among likely voters in the nationwide sample, 50% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 40% for Donald Trump, 3% for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, and 2% for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. #mulawpoll


#2016
Jessica

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new Quinnipiac national likely-voter poll: Biden 52% Trump 42%


#2017
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PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6

Biden 48%
Trump 42%

Source



#2018
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Trump refuses to commit to a peaceful transition of power after Election Day

 

https://edition.cnn....tion/index.html

 

President Donald Trump on Wednesday would not commit to providing a peaceful transition of power after Election Day, lending further fuel to concerns he may not relinquish his office should he lose in November.

 

 

--

"Well, we're going to have to see what happens," Trump said when asked whether he'd commit to a peaceful transition, one of the cornerstones of American democracy.

 

"You know that I've been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster," Trump said at a press briefing at the White House, presumably referring to mail-in ballots, which he has baselessly claimed will lead to voter fraud.

 

"(G)et rid of the ballots and you'll have a very ... there won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation," he added, saying "the ballots are out of control."

 

A question to the Americans: What's the worst possible outcome if Trump refuses to cede power? A civil war?



#2019
Cyber_Rebel

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A question to the Americans: What's the worst possible outcome if Trump refuses to cede power? A civil war?





I'm not sure if the military will splinter into separate factions to be classified as a Civil War, even though domestically there would be mass riots and ideologically armed groups fighting in the streets. If the Supreme Court falls under the control of the GOP fully, rules in his favor, then the military or Pentagon leaders may not be inclined to remove Trump even if they do believe he is illegitimate. It'll be a choice between adhering to rule of law, or securing order at all cost in the absence of law. 

The Trump supporters will believe Trump was screwed, the Biden supporters will believe Biden was screwed, both will think a coup attempt is in motion. An ungovernable balkanized America seems to be likely this decade. 



#2020
caltrek

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I also wonder if secession may become a more discussed option.  I was just re-reading California: The Great Exception by Cary McWilliams. He makes the point that shortly after California became a state and during the Civil War era, there was talk of California seceding from the union and essentially taking other west coast territories with it.  The basis was not the issue of slavery, but of geographic isolation. Rumors of this secessionist impulse prompted Congress to pass and Lincoln to sign a bill which launched the first transcontinental railroad. This addressed the isolation issue and helped cement the west coast to the rest of the nation.

 

Cyber rebel is right that there is a definite geographic balkanization impulse at work in today's situation. As I have argued before, part of the problem started with the Supreme Court's acting to undermine key provisions of the 1965 Civil Rights Act.  Other Supreme Court actions undermining the McCain Feingold campaign finance reform act did not help. So now we have the kleptocrats versus small "d" democrats who are also  lining up on a pronounced regional basis.  Whether that would actually lead to a secession effort remains to be seen.  It may seem implausible at the moment, but there is another historical precedent to the present situation.  That  involved the election of 1876 between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden.  Civil War was avoided in that case through southerners agreeing to accept a Hayes victory in exchange for the removal of union troops from the South, thus ending the era of reconstruction. That suggests that some bargaining might occur in order to resolve the dispute, preserve the union, etc.

 

Factoring into that bargaining equation will be the extent to which folks take to the streets to protest what looks like will be the "official" outcome. I think to truly force the issue something like a nationwide strike would be needed. I don't think that will occur. Instead, one side or the other will eventually back down.  Part of the equation will also be results in the House and Senate.  Perhaps Trump will be awarded the presidency even as the House stays in Democratic hands and the Senate shifts to the Democrats.  A period of deadlocked government would follow, with the Supreme Court arbitrating issues regarding spending and administration.  The great tragedy will be this pre-occupation with dealing with Trump's threat to democracy will distract from a sensible approach to dealing with Covid 19, global warming, and other problems of the day.  The United States will decline in its global influence, albeit with a tremendously powerful military still intact. Oh well. 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls





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