I think another factor of how the election will be resolved is whether Biden wins by a landslide, or whether Trump wins at least the electoral college vote outright, or gets close enough to tip the balance through extra-ordinary procedures. Extra-ordinary procedures might include disputed vote counts, followed by governors and legislators declaring outcomes that essentially set aside actual vote results, followed by appeal to Congress where Trump is likely to win. (Each state getting one vote rather than a vote by the entire delegation). One state that might help Biden reach a landslide outcome is Arizona. The article cited below discusses the importance of the mobilization of the Latinx vote there. I also have read that a lot of migration from California has helped to flip the state from red to blue. Finally, Trump's open contempt for the now deceased Senator John McCain may have soured some voters there on Trump. Here is the article I mentioned:
Latinx Activists Are Closer Than Ever to Flipping Arizona—If Democrats Don’t Take Them for Granted
(Mother Jones) Clipboard in hand, Magda Morales politely approaches people waiting for the bus in downtown Tucson to ask if they’ve signed up to vote. The city’s sweltering transit hub is decidedly less bustling than it was pre-pandemic, but still noisy enough that she has to speak loudly through her white surgical mask.
“Hi mija, are you registered to vote?” she asks a young Mexican American woman awaiting a transfer.
“I’m only 17,” the woman responds quietly through her black cloth mask. “I turn 18 in October.”
“Oh mija, but you can register if you turn 18 before the November election. Wanna register?” Morales asks, sitting on the opposite side of the bench, trying to keep a safe distance. She pulls out a voter registration form and asks the young woman for her ID. When the woman says she needs a new one, Morales quickly responds with a half-joking “Gotta get one, girl!” and they both giggle. If she has an ID the next time they meet here, Morales says, she can register to vote. “Have a nice day, mija.”
The 42-year-old Morales, a canvasser for the civic engagement group Mi Familia Vota, speaks in the familiar tone of a Mexican American tía who makes you feel welcome but will also tease you. When one man tells her that he couldn’t register because of his felony record, Morales quickly says, “¡Ya pórtese bien!”—start behaving better!