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2020 US Presidential Election


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#641
Jessica

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Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Dec. 3-4, 628 LV

Trump 46, Biden 44
Trump 45, Buttigieg 43
Trump 47, Warren 41
Trump 47, Bloomberg 40
Trump 47, Sanders 34



#642
Jessica

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Quinnipiac National: Biden +9, Sanders +8, Warren +7, Buttigieg +5

 

https://poll.qu.edu/...019_uwhp13.pdf/

Biden/Trump: 52-41
Sanders/Trump: 51-43
Warren/Trump: 50-43
Buttigieg/Trump: 48-43
Bloomberg/Trump: 48-42
Klobuchar/Trump: 47-43



#643
Jessica

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Biden 29, Sanders 17, Warren 15, Buttigieg 9

https://poll.qu.edu/...019_uwhp13.pdf/

Biden: 29
Sanders: 17
Warren: 15
Buttigieg: 9
Bloomberg: 5
Yang: 4
Klobuchar: 3

 

Democratic primary voters under 35 years old via new Quinnipiac poll: Sanders 52% Warren 17% Biden 11% Yang 7% Gabbard 3% Buttigieg 2% Bloomberg 2% Everyone else 1% or less



#644
Jessica

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Monmouth (A+ Rated) Poll: Biden 26% (+3), Sanders 21% (+1), Warren 17% (-6) Buttigieg 8% (-1)
Bloomberg 5%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Patrick 1%


The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from December 4 to 8, 2019 with 903 adults in the United States. The results in this release are based on 838 registered voters and have a +/- 3.4 percentage point sampling margin of error. This release also includes results based on 384 voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party which have a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Among Hispanics, Blacks, Asian, Other:

Biden 32%
Sanders 21%
Warren 11%
Buttigieg 8%
Yang 3%
Bloomberg 3%
Booker 2%
Patrick 0%


https://www.monmouth..._us_121019.pdf/


#645
Jessica

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IA - Emerson: Biden +1

 

Biden 23% (-)
Sanders 22% (+9)
Buttigieg 18% (+2)
Warren 12% (-11)
Klobuchar 10% (+9)
Booker 4% (+1)

https://emersonpolli...e-sanders-rises



#646
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NH-WBUR: Buttigieg 18, Biden 17, Sanders 15, Warren 12

 

Buttigieg 18
Biden 17
Sanders 15
Warren 12
Gabbard 5
Yang 5
Jlobuchar 3
Steyer 3
Bloomberg 2
Rest at 1 or less



#647
Alislaws

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Hey all, I'm not very familiar with how things are going in the democratic race. 

 

Superficially, it looks like the DNC have learned from their strategy of telling everyone there was only one possible candidate and trying to ram Hillary through as a done deal before anyone had time to vote on anything. 

 

So this time we started with 25 or so candidates? Many of whom don't seem to have any chance of victory?

 

Is this just an attempt to dilute the field while installing Biden? (he seems like the establishment favourite this time?) 

Is it more of a Trump effect? "well no one thought trump could win, but then he did and he's an idiot, so I should have no problem!" and the DNC have taken steps to maintain strict neutrality?



#648
caltrek

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Hard to say.  I think it is partly a perception of Trump as highly vulnerable, coupled with the opportunity that comes with that viewed weakness, along with a struggle for the soul of the Democratic party. 

 

The election reveals many camps under the Democratic party banner: populist, progressive, democratic socialist, environmentalist, liberal, etc.  All with nuanced differences between each other.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#649
Jessica

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CA-CNN: Biden 21, Sanders 20, Warren 17

 

Biden 21
Sanders 20
Warren 17
Buttigieg 9
Yang 6
Bloomberg 5
Booker 3
Gabbard 2
Klobuchar 2
Rest at 1 or less


http://cdn.cnn.com/c.../11/rel1_ca.pdf



#650
Jessica

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TX-CNN: Biden +20

 

Biden 35
Sanders 15
Warren 13
Buttigieg 9
Bloomberg 5
Castro 3
Yang 3
Booker 2
Steyer 2
Rest at 1 or less

http://cdn.cnn.com/c.../11/rel1_tx.pdf



#651
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Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted Dec. 7-10:

https://d25d2506sfb9...onTabReport.pdf

Dems:
Biden 26%
Warren 21%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 11%
Bloomberg 4%
Yang 3%
Gabbard 3%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Bennet 1%
Castro 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Patrick, Bullock, Williamson 0%

GOP:
Trump 88%
Weld 2%
Walsh 2%



#652
Jessica

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#653
Jessica

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Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)



#654
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Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 9-10, 1116 adults including 945 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Impeach Trump: Yes 45 (+1), No 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 42 (-3)



#655
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Civiqs, Dec. 7-11, 1411 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 50, No 47



#656
Jessica

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South Carolina / Poll (12/6-11): Biden 27% Sanders 20% Warren 19% Buttigieg 9% Booker 5% Steyer 5% Gabbard 4% Bloomberg 3% Klobuchar 2% Yang 2% Patrick 1% Williamson 1% Bennet 0% Castro 0% Delaney 0%


#657
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Will Trump Debate a Democrat in 2020? He’s Not So Sure.
https://www.nytimes....e-democrat.html


WASHINGTON — President Trump is discussing with his advisers the possibility of sitting out the general election debates in 2020 because of his misgivings about the commission that oversees them, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

Mr. Trump has told advisers that he does not trust the Commission on Presidential Debates, the nonprofit entity that sponsors the debates, the two people said.

Less of a concern for Mr. Trump than who will emerge as the Democratic nominee is which media personality will be chosen as the debate moderator, according to people in contact with him.

 



#658
Jessica

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Fox News: Biden 30, Sanders 20, Warren 13

 

Biden 30 (-1)
Sanders 20 (-1)
Warren 13 (-6)
Buttigieg 7 (=)
Bloomberg 5 (n/a)
Klobuchar 5 (+3)
Yang 3 (=)
Gabbard 3 (+1)
Booker 2 (=)
Rest at 1 or less

Changes are from October.

By race:

White:
Biden 27
Sanders 18
Warren 17
Buttigieg 7
Bloomberg 4

Non-White:
Biden 35
Sanders 22
Warren 7
Bloomberg 5
Buttigieg 3

https://www.foxnews....ember-8-11-2019



#659
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Marist, Dec. 7-11, 1744 adults including 1508 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)



#660
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Quinnipiac: Biden +13

 

Biden 30 (+1)
Warren 17 (+2)
Sanders 16 (-1)
Buttigieg 9 (=)
Bloomberg 7 (+2)
Klobuchar 3 (=)
Yang 3 (-1)
Booker 2 (+1)
Rest at 1 or less

Changes from a week ago.

Breakdown by race:

White:
Biden 22
Sanders 20
Warren 19
Buttigieg 13
Bloomberg 7

Black:
Biden 52
Warren 14
Sanders 6
Bloomberg 7
 

Quote
From December 11 – 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,390 self-identified registered voters
nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 567 Democratic voters and
independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

https://poll.qu.edu/...019_utel65.pdf/






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