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2020 US Presidential Election


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#661
Jessica

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Morning Consult national poll, conducted Dec. 9-15:

https://morningconsu...cratic-primary/

Biden 31%
Sanders 22%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 7%
Yang 4%
Booker 3%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Bennet 1%
Castro 1%
Delaney 1%
Williamson 1%
Patrick 0%


#662
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Military Times poll of Trump’s favorable rating amongst service members-

Favorable: 42% (-2)
Unfavorable: 50% (+7)

Surprisingly matches what his national approval rating is now.

The change is from October 2018.

https://www.military...mes-poll-shows/



#663
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EmersonPolling/

Poll (12/15-17): Biden 32% Sanders 25% Warren 12% Buttigieg 8% Yang 6% Gabbard 4% Bloomberg 3% Klobuchar 2% Booker 2% Steyer 2% Delaney 1% Williamson 0% Bennet 0% Castro 0% Patrick 0%



#664
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YouGov Poll - Biden 29% (+3), Sanders 19% (+3), Warren 17% (-4) , Buttigieg 7% (-4)
Bloomberg 4%
Klobuchar 4%
Yang 3%


https://d25d2506sfb9...onTabReport.pdf


#665
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IA-PPP: Generic Dem +2

 

Generic Democrat 49
Trump 47

Trump approval: 47/51

For End Citizens United PAC.

https://endcitizensu...IowaResults.pdf



#666
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The Hill/HarrisX national poll, conducted Dec. 13-14:

https://thehill.com/...w-national-poll

Biden 29%
Sanders 13%
Warren 13%
Buttigieg 5%
Bloomberg 5%
Castro 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 3%
Steyer 3%
Booker 2%
Delaney 2%
Patrick 2%
Gabbard 1%
Bennet 1%
Williamson 0%



#667
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Echelon Insights poll & change since Oct.: Biden 37% (+5), Warren 14% (-8), Sanders 14% (-1),

Bloomberg 6%, Buttigieg 6% (even), Klobuchar 2% (even), Yang 2% (+1), Castro 2% (+2), all others 1% or less


http://echeloninsigh...Dem-Primary.pdf


They also polled on Biden versus his top primary rivals, as if it were a two-person race:


Biden vs Sanders, 58% to 32%, Boden +26 (+32 in October)

Biden vs Warren, 59% to 29%, Biden +30 (+11 in October, when it was 49% to 38%)

Biden vs Buttigieg, 65% to 20% (they didn't poll on this matchup in October)



#668
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Biden 26 (-2)
Sanders 20 (+3)
Warren 16 (+2)
Buttigieg 8 (-3)
Bloomberg 5 (+2)
Booker 3 (+1)
Klobuchar 3 (+1)
Yang 3 (=)
Castro 2 (+1)
Rest at 1 or less

Changes from their November poll.

http://cdn.cnn.com/c...l14b.-.2020.pdf



#669
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Biden 28 (+1)
Sanders 21 (+2)
Warren 18 (-5)
Buttigieg 9 (+3)
Klobuchar 5 (=)
Bloomberg 4 (N/A)
Yang 3 (=)
Gabbard 2 (=)
Booker 2 (=)
Rest at 1 or less

Changes are from their end of October poll.
 

Quote
Biden’s strength in the poll is largely due to his support among African Americans (50 percent support him, compared with 15 percent for Warren and 8 percent for Sanders), and Democrats over 50 (38 percent back him, compared with 14 percent for Warren and 7 percent for Sanders).

Quote
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Dec. 14-17 of 900 adults — more than half of whom were reached by cell phone — and it has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The margin of error for 410 Democratic primary voters is +/- 4.84 percentage points.

https://www.document...ember-Poll.html



#670
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% in Dec

/

poll (change from Nov): Buttigieg 24 (-2) Sanders 21 (3) Warren 18 (-1) Biden 15 (3) Klobuchar 4 (-1) Yang 3 (-1) Booker 3 (2) Gabbard 3 (1) Steyer 2 (0) Castro 1 (0) Delaney 0 (0) Williamson 0 (-1) Bennet 0 (-1) Bloomberg 0 (-1)



#671
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18% Biden   
15% Sanders   
10% Warren   
05% Bloomberg
04% Buttigieg   
02% Gabbard   
02% Yang   
02% Steyer   
01% Booker   
01% Castro   
01% Klobuchar   
01% Delaney   

https://www.ipsos.co...019_writeup.pdf



#672
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Democrats aim for even smaller debate stage in January with new rules
 
The Democratic National Committee is raising the bar for a place on the debate stage next month just weeks before the Iowa caucuses, with qualification rules that appear set to keep Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg off the stage.

The Jan. 14 debate in Des Moines will have both a higher polling requirement and a requirement for more grass-roots donors.

To make the stage, candidates must score 5 percent in four party-sanctioned national polls or 7 percent in two polls in early states. They must also prove that they have 225,000 individual donors, up from 200,000 in December, with more than 1,000 coming from 20 different states. Former vice president Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg will make the cutoff.

The new rules are also likely to keep two nonwhite candidates off the stage for another round. Booker, who is black, has been polling under 4 percent and had asked the Democratic National Committee to consider other criteria, like early state endorsements and offices, so he could make the debate. Former Housing Secretary Julián Castro, who is Latino, is also unlikely to make the cut with those levels.

 



#673
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AP/NORC, Dec. 5-9, 1015 adults (change from late Oct.)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)



#674
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New Poll: Millennial Latinos in California Strongly Favor Bernie Sanders

 

https://www.latinore...ifornialatinos/

 

Entire Article (excluding photo of Bernie):

 

(Latino Rebels- Adrian D. Pantoja)  In a previous analysis, I noted that Bernie Sanders is a clear favorite among Latino voters in California. A recent study by The Latino Community Foundation shows that young Latinos have an even stronger preference for Sanders, with over two-thirds rating the senator favorably. The favorability gap between Sanders and the other Democratic contenders is significant, yet all are evaluated higher than Donald Trump. Interestingly, the data show a significant gender gap when it comes to Donald Trump.

 

Latinas rate Trump unfavorably by 83 percent, while male Latinos rate him unfavorably by 69 percent—a 14 point gap. Regrettably, Elizabeth Warren, the top remaining female candidate, has failed to use this to her advantage. In fact, Warren is rated less favorably by Latinas (44 percent favorable) than by Latinos (52 percent favorable). Given the high stakes of the California primary, the failure of key Democratic candidates to reach out to young Latinas may prove to be a strategic mistake.

 

Moreover, young Latinos are advantaged because they are overwhelmingly U.S.-born citizens. A lack of citizenship has long stymied the growth of the Latino electorate. That barrier is eroding as the balance of power shifts toward younger voters. Capitalizing on their numbers and energy could prove to be decisive in determining the winner of the Democratic presidential primary. Presently, one candidate appears to be doing just that—Bernie Sanders.

 

Sanders’ lead among young Latinos is due to his policy issues, the establishment of offices in Latino communities, hiring significant numbers of Latino staff and receiving endorsements from influential Latinos. He is offering a blueprint that others should follow for winning young Latino voters and the wider Hispanic electorate.

 

Favorability1.jpg?resize=731%2C470&ssl=1


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#675
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 Pete Buttigieg’s Plan for Latinx Communities

 

https://www.motherjo...nx-communities/

 

Introduction:

 

(Mother Jones) Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg released a white paper on Monday focused on a slew of policy proposals aimed at Latinx voters. Entitled “El Pueblo Unido/A People United: A New Era for Latinos,” the 20-page document explores how a Buttigieg administration would address access to voting, a lack of affordable housing, draconian immigration laws, and bring Latinx communities closer to environmental justice.

 

 “Half of Latinos live in the most polluted cities in the country, and even more live in one of the three states heavily affected by extreme weather events,” the report notes, “sea-level rise and hurricanes in Florida, heat waves in Texas, and droughts in California.” Not to mention, the devastating effects on Latinx communities of Hurricane Maria, one of the most extreme natural disasters in the United States’ recent memory, which smashed into Puerto Rico in 2017 and killed almost 3,000 people. The halting federal response to the crisis was often criticized as being an example of both logistical problems and racism. 

 

Other Democratic presidential candidates, like Joe Biden, have highlighted how their platforms will support the country’s Latinx population, but Buttigieg is the only one who’s released a plan with this level of specificity. South Bend, Indiana, where Buttigieg is mayor, has a Latinx population of 14 percent, comparable to the 16 percent in the national population.

 

He plans to invest $10 billion to expand wastewater services, triple EPA funds for water contamination and Superfund site clean up, enact or enforce more rigorous air quality regulations, and establish several Offices of Healthy Equity and Justice across relevant federal agencies, which, the report says, would “oversee programs related to the social determinants of health.”

 

 

Conclusion:

…While Allen Aroz acknowledges that the South Bend mayor’s proposals address issues that are central to remedying environmental problems plaguing Latinx communities, there are others he overlooks, like public transportation and agricultural labor conditions. As for the role those communities play across the country’s farms and fields, “We haven’t heard a commensurate level of concern for the conditions of farm workers, both from exposure to chemicals and pesticides that are applied,” she says. “But also from having jobs that are healthy and treated with dignity.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#676
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With No Choice but Trump, Voter Sues Over Minnesota Primary

 

https://www.courthou...nesota-primary/

 

Introduction:

 

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — A Minnesota voter frustrated because President Donald Trump would be the only name on the state Republican primary ballot in March is challenging the move and muddying the launch of the state’s first presidential primary in decades.

 

Jim Martin, of Lake Elmo, a small business operator and political independent, filed a lawsuit over the primary rules, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported. Martin said he doesn’t want to participate in a “Soviet-style” election in which the political parties dictate who the voters can elect.

 

State Republican Party Chairwoman Jennifer Carnahan had defended the move, arguing that it’s her job as party leader to help re-elect the president. Republican officials said they will allow write-in candidates.

MinnesotaCapitol.jpg?resize=289%2C217

The Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#677
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27% Biden   
17% Sanders   
15% Warren   
05% Bloomberg   
05% Buttigieg   
05% Yang         
04% Steyer   
03% Booker   
02% Gabbard   
02% Klobuchar   
02% Castro   
01% Delaney   
01% Bennet   
01% Williamson   

https://mclaughlinon...mber-PUBLIC.pdf



#678
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ARG economic survey (monthly), Dec. 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (-3)

RV:

Approve 38 (+2)
Disapprove 58 (-3)



#679
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Joe Biden - 31%
Bernie Sanders - 21%
Elizabeth Warren - 15%
Pete Buttigieg - 9%
Michael Bloomberg - 6%
Andrew Yang - 5%
Cory Booker - 3%
Tom Steyer - 3%
Amy Klobuchar - 3%
Tulsi Gabbard - 2%
Rest - 1% or less

Conducted Dec 20-22. Non-debate qualifying.

More info on Morning Consult's website:
https://morningconsu...cratic-primary/



#680
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Biden 30 (+1)
Warren 19 (+2)
Sanders 17 (-2)
Buttigieg 7 (=)
Klobuchar 5 (+1)
Bloomberg 4 (=)
Yang 3 (=)
Gabbard 2 (-1)
Booker 2 (=)

https://d25d2506sfb9...onTabReport.pdf
 
 




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