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2020 US Presidential Election


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#1821
Jessica

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A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 3-4 found that Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points in support among registered voters, less than 100 days before the presidential election. A plurality, 44%, believe Biden would be better than Trump at steering the nation’s response to the pandemic.

https://www.reuters...._source=twitter



#1822
Jessica

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Economist/YouGov: Biden +9

 

Biden 49%
Trump 40%

https://docs.cdn.you...onTabReport.pdf



#1823
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WI-Marquette: Biden +8

 

Biden 52%
Trump 44%

https://lubarcenter....ps.io/MLSPBook/

Was Biden +4 in May.



#1824
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NEW @davidbinder / @focusonrural (D) Poll (7/30-31):
IOWA: Biden 49% (+6) Trump 43% .
MICHIGAN: Biden 51% (+10) Trump 41% .
WISCONSIN: Biden 53% (+11) Trump 42% .
MINNESOTA: Biden 54% (+18) Trump 36%


#1825
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History professor who has accurately predicted every election since 1984 says Trump will lose

 

August 7, 2020

 

History professor Allan Lichtman is used to being right.

He has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential race since Ronald Reagan's reelection victory in 1984 using his "13 keys" system. (It's worth mentioning that in 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida's electoral votes. Lichtman stands by validity of his prediction.)

Now, Lichtman and his "13 keys" are ready to call 2020.

In an interview with CNN, Lichtman was definitive in his answer: "The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year."

Lichtman bases his prediction on a model of "13 keys" that can be answered as either true or false for any given election. The "13 keys" in his system include factors such as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals, as well as the candidates' personal charisma.

 

https://edition.cnn....trnd/index.html



#1826
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'Friday Night Massacre' at US Postal Service as Postmaster General—a Major Trump Donor—Ousts Top Officials

 

https://www.commondr...ump-donor-ousts

 

Introduction:

(Common Dreams)  Government watchdogs, Democratic lawmakers, and pro-democracy advocates declared it a "Friday Night Massacre" for the U.S. Postal Service after news broke in a classic end-of-the-week dump that Louis DeJoy—a major GOP donor to President Donald Trump and the recently appointed Postmaster General—had issued a sweeping overhaul of the agency, including the ouster of top executives from key posts and the reshuffling of more than two dozen other officials and operational managers.

 

The shake-up came as congressional Democrats called for an investigation of DeJoy and the cost-cutting measures that have slowed mail delivery and ensnared ballots in recent primary elections. 

 

Twenty-three postal executives were reassigned or displaced, the new organizational chart shows. Analysts say the structure centralizes power around DeJoy, a former logistics executive and major ally of President Trump, and de-emphasizes decades of institutional postal knowledge. All told, 33 staffers included in the old postal hierarchy either kept their jobs or were reassigned in the restructuring, with five more staffers joining the leadership from other roles.

 

Already under fire for recent policy changes at the USPS that mail carriers from within and outside critics have denounced as a sabotage effort to undermine the Postal Service broadly as well as disrupt efforts to carry out mail-in voting for November's election amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the moves unveiled late Friday were viewed as an overt assault on democracy and a calculated opportunity to boost Republicans' long-held dream of undercutting or privatizing the government-run mail service while also boosting their election prospects in the process.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1827
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vIhdendK_bigger.jpg
JUST IN: New @CBSNewsPoll Battleground Tracker numbers from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin give @JoeBiden an edge over @realDonaldTrump in part because vast majority of voters in the two states say things in the U.S. are going badly.
wis

 

pa

https://pbs.twimg.co...=jpg&name=small



#1828
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YouGov: PA (Biden+9), WI (Biden +6), MI (Biden +4)

 

Michigan
Biden 47
Trump 43
Other/DK 11

Pennsylvania
Biden 50
Trump 41
Other/DK 8

Wisconsin
Biden 49
Trump 43
Other/DK 8

https://elections.wi...lection-survey/

Trump job approval
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
Wisconsin: 42/55 (-13)



#1829
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#AZPOP #POLL: #Presidential race in #Arizona (Change Since July) @JoeBiden (D): 49% (+/- 0) @realDonaldTrump ®: 45% (+1) N=603, MoE +/- 4.0%, Survey Conducted 8/3/20 - 8/4/20


#1830
caltrek

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Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda

 

https://www.vox.com/...window-bidenism

 

Introduction:

 (Vox) Progressive groups overwhelmingly favored confrontational leftists like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren during the 2020 primary campaign. And many pretty clearly favored younger, more diverse rising stars like Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg over Joe Biden. Biden, after all, is not only a paid-up member of the “establishment,” he’s a veteran of the long shadow cast over American politics by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan — a guy who voted in favor of the invasion of Iraq, of multiple pieces of legislation deregulating the banking industry, of the 1994 welfare reform bill, and of the “tough on crime” 1994 criminal justice bill.

 

Biden is now the presumptive nominee, but progressives still fundamentally do not see him or his team as kindred spirits. Many, however, are becoming more optimistic about Bidenism. His platform is in many ways a surprisingly progressive approach to policy that the left sees as a triumph of their own work in trying to change the terms of debate in American politics.

 

Biden “envisions a massive public sector role for job creation,” points out Faiz Shakir, who managed Bernie Sanders’s 2016 campaign. He doesn’t think Biden has suddenly become a left-wing hero. But he credits Biden, Biden’s team, and mainstream Democrats more broadly with “understanding that in Covid times there needs to be thinking about bold practical measures.”

 

The article goes on to discuss progressive policy proposals on police reform, low-income and affordable housing assistance, assistance to enhance K through 12 education, expanding Pell grants (college student vouchers), transportation funding, health care reform, addressing climate change,  and immigration reform.

 

A key take away point is summed up as follows:

(Faiz) Shakir,...says the Biden agenda is strikingly progressive on these points not despite Biden’s moderate profile but because of it.

 

Biden “starts with a politics of what’s possible at a particular moment and time,” he says, and the broad consensus in the Democratic Party is that what’s possible has changed.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1831
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Joe Biden Chooses Kamala Harris as His Running Mate

 

https://www.vox.com/...-vice-president

 

Introduction:

(Vox) Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has officially chosen California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate.

 

Harris, who ran for the presidency herself, is a historic choice: She’s the first Black woman and the first Asian American woman to be a major-party nominee for the vice presidency. Among the candidates favored by Democratic voters in recent polls, Harris brings extensive governing experience to the position, though aspects of her record have long prompted progressive criticism.

 

Harris has been in public service for decades; she was elected to the Senate in 2016 and served as the state’s attorney general and San Francisco’s district attorney before that. A former candidate in the Democratic primary, she’s known as a charismatic campaigner. And she and Biden are close ideologically: Both staked out more moderate positions during the party’s presidential contest.

 

Harris’s nomination, which followed a lengthy vetting process, sends a message about the future of the Democratic Party — and its commitment to women and Black Americans.

 

“I have the great honor to announce that I’ve picked @KamalaHarris — a fearless fighter for the little guy, and one of the country’s finest public servants — as my running mate,” Biden wrote in a series of tweets on Tuesday. “Back when Kamala was Attorney General, she worked closely with Beau. I watched as they took on the big banks, lifted up working people, and protected women and kids from abuse. I was proud then, and I’m proud now to have her as my partner in this campaign.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1832
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https://emersonpolli...rty-conventions

AZ

Biden 49
Trump 45

Aug 8-10 661 LV, 53-47 Biden with leaners

NC

Trump 48
Biden 46

Aug 8-10 673 LV, 51-49 Trump with leaners

PA

Biden 52
Trump 43

Aug 8-10 843 LV, 53-47 Biden with leaners



#1833
10 year march

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The odds now stand at $1.65 for Biden $2.50 for Trump

#1834
Jessica

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New Marquette Law School Poll of likely voters in Wisconsin finds Joe Biden supported by 49%, Donald Trump by 44%. #mulawpoll


#1835
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National GE: Biden 58% (+16) Trump 42%
@Reuters/@Ipsos, RV, 8/10-11


#1836
caltrek

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Mail sorting equipment being ‘removed’ from post offices, leaving mail to ‘pile up’: union leader

 

https://www.alternet...p-union-leader/

 

Introduction:

(Alternet) Mail sorting equipment is being removed from U.S. Postal Service (USPS) offices amid a slew of operational changes implemented by new Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, according to the head of the Iowa Postal Workers Union.

 

Numerous reports have detailed how changes made by DeJoy, a top donor to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, have cut overtime and changed policies, which have slowed down mail delivery across the country. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said last week that DeJoy had “confirmed that contrary to prior denials and statements minimizing these changes, the Postal Service recently instituted operational changes” shortly after he assumed office.

 

“We believe these changes, made during the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic, now threaten the timely delivery of mail — including medicines for seniors, paychecks for workers, and absentee ballots for voters — that is essential to millions of Americans,” they wrote in a letter to DeJoy, calling the cost-cutting measures “counterproductive and unacceptable.”

 

The USPS, which underwent a controversial staff shake-up after DeJoy took over, recently advanced a proposal that would nearly triple states’ postage costs for mail-in ballots and is also reportedly planning service cuts. But Kimberly Karol, the head of the Iowa Postal Workers Union, told NPR that there have been even more changes than previously reported.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1837
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National GE: Biden 58% (+16) Trump 42%
@Reuters/@Ipsos, RV, 8/10-11

 

 

Holy shit lol.



#1838
Jessica

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Morning Consult: Biden +8

 

Biden 51%
Trump 43%

https://morningconsu...ris-vp-polling/



#1839
Raklian

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National GE: Biden 58% (+16) Trump 42%
@Reuters/@Ipsos, RV, 8/10-11

 

 

Holy shit lol.

 

 

Yeah, thankfully it looks like at least 50% of Americans are sick of Trump's BS roll. lol


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#1840
Jessica

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Pew Research Center: Biden +8

9,114 RV

Biden 53%
Trump 45%

https://www.pewresea...des_TOPLINE.pdf






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