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2020 US Presidential Election


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#1881
10 year march

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I think Biden's and Trump's odds both improved by 5 cents. This translates to a reduced chance of someone else winning via a fluke such as death or party coup

Biden $1.75
Trump $2.20

#1882
Alric

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Biden is kind of a status quo type person, which I am not a fan of, since the status quo has a lot of issues. He is also a typical politician, which politicians are not really the most honest people. However, Biden is not 'evil' in the sense that Trump is. Trump made a fake charity to scam donations out of people. Trump is also a criminal. Also, I honestly doubt Trump is capable of basic empathy and he is likely a sociopath.

 

I honestly believe that if Trump thought he could win the election by killing a million US citizens, and there was zero chance of blow back for it, he would do it. He would kill a million people without hesitation if there was no downside and it would guarantee him winning. I do not think Biden would do the same. I don't think he would want to kill that many people, even if he knew he would get away with it, because deep down he isn't really that bad of a person. Trump, I honestly think he would. I don't think he values human life.

 

So while I am not a big fan of Biden, he isn't the lesser of two evils. Trump is actually evil, Biden is just a politician.



#1883
Jessica

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PPP: FL (Biden +4), DE (Biden +21), NY

 

FL
Biden 48
Trump 44

DE
Biden 58
Trump 37

NY
Biden 63
Trump 32

https://www.publicpo...en-in-delaware/



#1884
Jessica

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First night of GOP convention delivers nearly six times more views than start of Democrats' event on C-SPAN livestream

C-SPAN's livestream of the first night of the Republican National Convention has attracted nearly 440,000 views, marking a substantial increase over the start of the Democratic National Convention, which drew 76,000 views.

The numbers for Monday night come ahead of traditional TV ratings from Nielsen Media Research, which will be released on Tuesday afternoon.

According to Nielsen, 18.7 million people tuned in to the first night of the virtual Democratic convention from Milwaukee and Wilmington, Del. last Monday night, which featured speeches from former first lady Michelle Obama and former Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio)

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's speech last Thursday night was watched by 21.8 million people on TV, beating out the numbers for other major speeches at the party's convention earlier in the week.

Still, the numbers for Biden mark a 21 percent drop from presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's acceptance speech at the Democratic convention in 2016. They are also more than 38 percent lower than President Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican convention four years ago, which drew 34.9 million viewers.

SNIP

 

https://thehill.com/...iews-than-start



#1885
PhoenixRu

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Not surprising at all:

 

Hillary Clinton says Joe Biden should not concede on election night

 

WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton has a piece of advice for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden: Whatever happens, do not concede defeat on the night of the Nov. 3 election.



#1886
caltrek

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^^^Not surprising at all.  Note that it is advice concerning what to do on election night, and not necessarily after that time frame.  Only prudent, given what will likely be a new reliance on mail-in ballots that will likely be counted after election night. That introduces a huge variable, one in which there is comparatively little experience, especially during a pandemic.

 

What I came here to post:

 

Former senior Trump administration official endorses Joe Biden

 

https://www.cnn.com/...orse/index.html

 

Introduction:

(CNN) Miles Taylor, a former senior Trump administration official, endorsed Joe Biden's presidential campaign on Monday, becoming one of the highest-ranking former Trump administration officials to do so.

 

Taylor, who served as chief of staff to Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, also accused President Donald Trump of repeatedly using his office for political purposes, including directing officials to cut wildfire relief funding to California because voters there overwhelmingly opposed him in 2016.
 
Taylor, a longtime Republican and political appointee at DHS from 2017 to 2019, endorsed the former vice president in a video produced by the group Republican Voters Against Trump in which he also made several allegations about Trump's conduct. He also wrote an op-ed published in The Washington Post calling the President "dangerous" for America.
 
"What we saw week in and week out, for me, after two and a half years in that administration, was terrifying. We would go in to try to talk to him about a pressing national security issue -- cyberattack, terrorism threat -- he wasn't interested in those things. To him, they weren't priorities," Taylor says in the video.
 
"Given what I have experienced in the administration, I have to support Joe Biden for president and even though I am not a Democrat, even though I disagree on key issues, I'm confident that Joe Biden will protect the country and I'm confident that he won't make the same mistakes as this President."

The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1887
PhoenixRu

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^^^Not surprising at all.  Note that it is advice concerning what to do on election night, and not necessarily after that time frame...

 

No, no, no... each time worded differently, this idea appears again and again: Biden must not admit his defeat no matter what. Trump can not win the elections, and if, somehow, he will do, it will be fully illegal and illegitimate, etc...

 

This makes me think that, unlike of 2016, Democrats now have a plan B: remove Trump if not by elections, then by the street. Of course, America is unique and exceptional, but not to that degree that technologies of "colored revolution" which were proven successful in other countries wouldn't work at home.



#1888
caltrek

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Yes, but Trump and the Republicans have quite clearly called this upon themselves:

 

  1. Undercutting key features of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
  2. Constant efforts at voter suppression, including at the extreme flat out not counting of votes.
  3. A constant barrage of lies on virtually every subject imaginable.
  4. Themselves declaring that any vote that results in their defeat, at least at the presidential level, will not be considered legitimate
  5. Etc.

Except for Number 4, the Democrats have not engaged in any of these tactics.  Number 4 being a partial exception for reasons that I have already explained.

 

Personally, I think the Democrats should have a backup plan for removing Trump providing there is clear evidence the election has been stolen through tactics such as not counting votes or discarding votes that have legitimately been cast.  That second category may include a declaration by Republicans, based on no credible evidence, that a foreign power has engaged in massive voter fraud and that therefore state legislators must step into declare a winner in their state. 

 

It is bad enough that a candidate can win the popular vote, and then lose in the electoral college.  Even worse, that legislators and other officials in some states may engage in extreme voter suppression and discarding of votes to flip the allocation of electoral college delegates in their states.

 

Personally, I don't think the Democrats have the guts to take it as far as I would suggest. So, no, I don't think the plan is that Biden will engage in any "plan B."  Maybe some half a heart efforts through the courts, but that is about it. 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1889
Jessica

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VA-Roanoke: Biden +14

 

August 9-22
566 LV

Biden 53% (+2)
Trump 39% (nc)

SW VA: Trump 54-44
Southside: Biden 50-39
Shenandoah Valley: Trump 63-22
Central/Richmond: Biden 51-38
NoVa: Biden 67-26
Tidewater: Biden 50-44

Northam approval: 53/41 (was 59/29)
Clinton +4 sample.

https://www.roanoke....litics_aug_2020



#1890
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Change Research: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI - Biden +2, +3, +6, +1, +3, +5

 

AZ (344 LV)

Biden 49% (+4)
Trump 47% (+3)

FL (1262 LV)

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 46% (+2)

MI (809 LV)

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)

NC (560 LV)

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)

PA (984 LV)

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 46% (+2)

WI (925 LV)

Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)

https://changeresear...ground-wave-12/

Biden leads by 8 nationally



#1891
Jessica

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Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +7

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 40% (nc)
https://www.reuters....l-idINL1N2FR2BS



#1892
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National GE: Biden 47% (+9) Trump 38 @Harris_X_/@thehill, RV, 8/22-25


#1893
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Trump continuing to catch up fairly rapidly

Biden $1.80
Trump $2.10

#1894
Jessica

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PA (Franklin & Marshall College): Biden +7

 

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 42% (+1)

Wolf approval: 49/49 (was 52/47)
Trump approval: 41/59 (was 38/61)

Generic ballot: D 45/42 (was D 46/42)

https://www.fandm.ed...se-aug-2020.pdf



#1895
caltrek

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A Second Trump Term Would Mean Severe and Irreversible Changes in the Climate

 

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/27/21374894/trump-election-second-term-climate-change-energy-russia-china

 

Introduction:

(Vox) If Donald Trump is reelected president, the likely result will be irreversible changes to the climate that will degrade the quality of life of every subsequent generation of human beings, with millions of lives harmed or foreshortened. That’s in addition to the hundreds of thousands of lives at present that will be hurt or prematurely end.

 

This sounds like exaggeration, some of the “alarmism” green types are always accused of. But it is not particularly controversial among those who have followed Trump’s record on energy and climate change.

 

“As bad as it seems right now,” says Josh Freed of Third Way, a center-left think tank, “the climate and energy scenario in Trump II would be much, much worse.”

 

The damage has not primarily been done, and won’t primarily be done, by Congress, except through inaction (which is no small thing). Under Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Senate has effectively abdicated its duty as a legislative body; it now mostly exists to approve far-right judges to the federal bench.

 

In what follows (see article linked above quote box), I’ll assume that if Trump wins, Republicans keep the Senate — and that the situation remains as is, with Congress divided and gridlocked, unable to pass major legislation or effectively restrain Trump. (It is possible that Trump wins and Democrats take both houses of Congress, but thinking about that breaks my brain.)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#1896
Jessica

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More companies pledge to give workers time to vote

Source: Associated Press

 



A growing number of U.S. companies are pledging to give workers time off to vote in the presidential election this November, an effort that’s gaining steam despite the government’s reluctance to make Election Day a federal holiday.

Starbucks said Thursday it will give its 200,000 U.S. employees flexibility on Election Day, encouraging them to plan ahead with managers and schedule time to vote or volunteer at polling places. The Starbucks app will also help customers learn how to register to vote, the company said.

Walmart says it will give its 1.5 million U.S. workers up to three hours paid time off to vote. Apple is giving workers four hours off. Coca-Cola, Twitter, Cisco and Uber are giving employees the day off.

. . .

The idea isn’t entirely new. General Motors, Ford and FiatChrysler have given employees the day off to vote since 1999, when they agreed to the change in a contract with the United Auto Workers union. Patagonia gave its workers the day off starting in 2016.

 


Read more: https://www.chron.co...te-15518732.php



#1897
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Joe Biden $1.83 Trump 2.05

#1898
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Trump and Biden now have equal odds ! $1.90 each



#1899
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Joe Biden $1.83 Trump 2.05

 

Trump and Biden now have equal odds ! $1.90 each

 

 

Meanwhile the Economist has consistently shown a large and strong lead for Biden.

 

https://projects.eco...ecast/president

 

Think I'll trust them, rather than some dubious, unsourced betting odds.



#1900
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"That's what dictatorships do"
- Michael Beschloss

https://twitter.com/...170235300433920






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