Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!

These ads will disappear if you register on the forum

Photo

Russia's 20th century development without Communism


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

What do you think that Russia's 20th century development would have looked like had the Bolshevik coup of 1917 failed?

For instance, do you think that Russia would have become a developed country by now?

Also, do you think that Russia would have retained all of the territories of the Russian Empire other than Poland and perhaps Finland?

Do you think that Russia would have become a huge industrial powerhouse like the U.S. is right now?

Do you think that a lot of Central Asians and Caucasians would have moved to the Russian interior during the 20th century in this scenario in a Russian version of the U.S.'s African-American Great Migration?

Do you think that the Caucasus and/or southern Central Asia would have become Russia's version of the U.S.'s Sun Belt in the late 20th and/or early 21st century?

Any thoughts on all of this?



#2
Futurist

Futurist

    Aspiring cross-dresser

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,802 posts
  • LocationSouthern California, United States of America, Planet Earth

BTW, the reason that my text here looks funky is because I directly copied and pasted what I wrote on another website.

 

Also, I hope that PhoenixRu would be interested in this question.



#3
PhoenixRu

PhoenixRu

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 202 posts

What do you think that Russia's 20th century development would have looked like had the Bolshevik coup of 1917 failed?

 

For starters, the "Bolshevik coup" happened few months after the start of revolution. By that time, the old tsarist empire already started to crumble and the national outskirts began to secede. So the answer to first question is very simple:

 

Also, do you think that Russia would have retained all of the territories of the Russian Empire other than Poland and perhaps Finland?

 

Defenitely not. On the contrary, Russia would lose much more than just Poland and Finland. This would lead to long period on instability and low-intense wars between splinters of former empire (see China between 1910s and 1940s).

 

Do you think that Russia would have become a huge industrial powerhouse like the U.S. is right now?

 

Of course no. Capitalist "Russian republic" of 20-30s would remain a poor backward periphery of Europe and, very likely, would lose its status of great power. Industrial growth (much weaker and slower than it was in early USSR) would be largely based on foreign investments and would only lead to further erosion of independence.

 

Sometime in 20-30s, the growing sense of national humiliation and desire to "make Russia great again" would certainly lead to the rise of Russian fascism. Most likely, Russia would become the loyal satellte of Nazi Germany. This, perhaps, would save Russia from German invasion. If not, Russia would have been easily defeated within few months...

 

In short, Russia without communism would be a pale shadow of real-self.


  • joe00uk and rennerpetey like this

#4
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Born Again Singularitarian

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,426 posts
  • LocationNew Orleans, LA

Sometime in 20-30s, the growing sense of national humiliation and desire to "make Russia great again" would certainly lead to the rise of Russian fascism. Most likely, Russia would become the loyal satellte of Nazi Germany. This, perhaps, would save Russia from German invasion. If not, Russia would have been easily defeated within few months...
In short, Russia without communism would be a pale shadow of real-self.

Except there's one problem with this prediction— without the USSR, there never would have been a Nazi Germany. Fascism erupted as a reactionary response to Bolshevism. It was "communism for traditionalists". If the Bolsheviks never initially succeeded— Hell, even if the Mensheviks never succeeded— then we wouldn't have seen a Mussolini in Italy, a Hitler in Germany, or a Franco in Spain. The capitalist powers would not have ever felt so threatened as to turn towards such things. 

 

Ironically, it's even probable that the success of the Bolsheviks in Russia is what nigh-permanently staved off revolution in the West. It's been said time and time again that one of the reasons why the West pushed for things like labor unions, welfare, and social democracy was as a means of pacifying the working class so that they wouldn't look to Soviet ideals as an alternative.

 

Needless to say, it worked. It worked so well that we also turned against labor unions, welfare, and social democracy. Because of how good Americans had it in the '40s through '70s, we fell into hysterics against communism. At the exact same time that Senator McCarthy was railing against communist subversion in Hollywood, the Senate, and comic books, Americans were joining labor unions faster than ever.  In the UK, the government adopted wholesale socialist measures in the '40s through the late '70s such as nationalization of various industries and income caps— famously, the Beatles could barely afford luxuries at the peak of their popularity because they weren't actually earning much money from their music (though to be fair, that was mostly their record label taking the money). Once the USSR had fallen, what happened? Reversal of all these measures as well as "communism is completely dead and defeated" drilled into education and entertainment for the next 30 years.

 

And what needs to be said about France? What happened in France in 1968 is about as close to a socialist revolution as you can get without actually having a revolution. 

 

If the Bolsheviks failed, the French Student Uprising of 1968 would probably have occurred sometime in the 1920s or '30s across the entirety of Western civilization. Capitalists were far too complacent to imagine revolution could seriously happen. If you don't believe me, recall how unimaginable it was in Russia. Now recall that there was also a revolution in Germany going on right as they signed the Armistice, but it was quashed because the Western powers feared that they would also fall to Bolshevism. No Bolshevism = communist Germany going into the 1920s. 

 

It's one of those "what could have beens" but I am 100% certain that the USA is not currently the USSA because of what transpired 111 years ago in Petrograd. There was likely a communist revolution about to sweep across the entirety of Europe at some point in the 1920s or 1930s that was killed off in our timeline because the capitalists recoiled in fear at the very existence of the Soviet Union. 

 

 

At the present time, such protections and welfare safety nets are being destroyed in America and Russia alike (to the point your government can't even let men retire before their life expectancy runs out), which, to the complete ignorance of those anarcho-capitalists and "small government libertarian conservatives" pursuing this doctrine, will likely bring revolutionary socialism back to the forefront. Except I see it being more possible in the United States than Russia. At least Russia has Putin. Who does America have? Donald Trump. The worst man who could ever have held the office of president at the worst time to hold it. Coincidentally, what's kicking off in the USA but a rising tide of socialist candidates running for office (with a great chance of this becoming radical and organized should something shady happen in the midterms or 2020 election)? All we need is a downturn and a failed war effort. 

But again, if America goes Red in the next five years, that would probably cause a resurgence of fascism in Europe again.


  • Futurist and Erowind like this

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
Erowind

Erowind

    Psychonaut, Aspiring Mathematician and Anarchist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 742 posts
  • LocationIn some cafe eating--yes eating--roasted coffee beans and reading semiotext(e)s

 


But again, if America goes Red in the next five years, that would probably cause a resurgence of fascism in Europe again.

 

 

Us yanks licked those bastards once we can do it again ;)

 

Not a WWII song but let's be honest we all get tired of hearing Woody Guthrie after a while.

 

https://www.youtube .com/watch?v=NO1G6ZacPmE


  • Futurist likes this

Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#6
rennerpetey

rennerpetey

    Fighting Corporations since 2020

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 494 posts
  • LocationNot in Kansas anymore

 

It's one of those "what could have beens" but I am 100% certain that the USA is not currently the USSA because of what transpired 111 years ago in Petrograd. There was likely a communist revolution about to sweep across the entirety of Europe at some point in the 1920s or 1930s that was killed off in our timeline because the capitalists recoiled in fear at the very existence of the Soviet Union. 

That would actually be a pretty awesome alternate history.  Had America gone communist instead of Russia, how would have the rest of the world, especially Europe changed in response.


John Lennon dares you to make sense of this

Spoiler

#7
funkervogt

funkervogt

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 449 posts

 

 

Sometime in 20-30s, the growing sense of national humiliation and desire to "make Russia great again" would certainly lead to the rise of Russian fascism. Most likely, Russia would become the loyal satellte of Nazi Germany. This, perhaps, would save Russia from German invasion. If not, Russia would have been easily defeated within few months...

Russians are too proud a people, and Russia is too large a country for it to ever become a "satellite" of another country. 

 

For all its many faults, the Socialist system rapidly industrialized Russia and brought most of its people into the 20th century (even if they still lagged the West). 

 

Without Marx and Lenin, Russia would have emerged from the 1917 Revolution/Civil War as either a fractious and corrupt democracy that would have been doomed, or as a dictatorship with someone other than the Tsar in charge. 

 

Russian history since 1991 is probably the likeliest path the country would have followed starting around 1920 had Communism not been a variable: A democratic republic modeled off of those of Europe or America would have been founded, but quickly undermined by the corruption, criminality, and conservatism deeply entrenched in the culture of the Russian leadership at that time. Internal power struggles in the form of coups and constitutional changes would have effectively eviscerated the democratic workings and ideological diversity of the government while preserving the facade. The result would have been a "fake democracy" and basically one-party state where the military had a lot of political power. 

 

Under these conditions, I think Russia wouldn't have suffered through the millions of deaths caused by collectivism and totalitarianism, but it probably would have developed slower and had a weaker military going into the WWII years. 

 

Fascism might have had appeal in Russia, though as others have said, the absence of a Communist Russian threat would have weakened one of the primary draws of fascism throughout Europe during the Interwar years. 


  • Futurist likes this

#8
Alislaws

Alislaws

    Democratic Socialist Materialist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,511 posts
  • LocationLondon

 

Sometime in 20-30s, the growing sense of national humiliation and desire to "make Russia great again" would certainly lead to the rise of Russian fascism. Most likely, Russia would become the loyal satellte of Nazi Germany. This, perhaps, would save Russia from German invasion. If not, Russia would have been easily defeated within few months...
In short, Russia without communism would be a pale shadow of real-self.

Except there's one problem with this prediction— without the USSR, there never would have been a Nazi Germany. Fascism erupted as a reactionary response to Bolshevism. It was "communism for traditionalists". If the Bolsheviks never initially succeeded— Hell, even if the Mensheviks never succeeded— then we wouldn't have seen a Mussolini in Italy, a Hitler in Germany, or a Franco in Spain. The capitalist powers would not have ever felt so threatened as to turn towards such things. 

 

Ironically, it's even probable that the success of the Bolsheviks in Russia is what nigh-permanently staved off revolution in the West. It's been said time and time again that one of the reasons why the West pushed for things like labor unions, welfare, and social democracy was as a means of pacifying the working class so that they wouldn't look to Soviet ideals as an alternative.

 

Needless to say, it worked. It worked so well that we also turned against labor unions, welfare, and social democracy. Because of how good Americans had it in the '40s through '70s, we fell into hysterics against communism. At the exact same time that Senator McCarthy was railing against communist subversion in Hollywood, the Senate, and comic books, Americans were joining labor unions faster than ever.  In the UK, the government adopted wholesale socialist measures in the '40s through the late '70s such as nationalization of various industries and income caps— famously, the Beatles could barely afford luxuries at the peak of their popularity because they weren't actually earning much money from their music (though to be fair, that was mostly their record label taking the money). Once the USSR had fallen, what happened? Reversal of all these measures as well as "communism is completely dead and defeated" drilled into education and entertainment for the next 30 years.

 

And what needs to be said about France? What happened in France in 1968 is about as close to a socialist revolution as you can get without actually having a revolution. 

 

If the Bolsheviks failed, the French Student Uprising of 1968 would probably have occurred sometime in the 1920s or '30s across the entirety of Western civilization. Capitalists were far too complacent to imagine revolution could seriously happen. If you don't believe me, recall how unimaginable it was in Russia. Now recall that there was also a revolution in Germany going on right as they signed the Armistice, but it was quashed because the Western powers feared that they would also fall to Bolshevism. No Bolshevism = communist Germany going into the 1920s. 

 

It's one of those "what could have beens" but I am 100% certain that the USA is not currently the USSA because of what transpired 111 years ago in Petrograd. There was likely a communist revolution about to sweep across the entirety of Europe at some point in the 1920s or 1930s that was killed off in our timeline because the capitalists recoiled in fear at the very existence of the Soviet Union. 

 

 

At the present time, such protections and welfare safety nets are being destroyed in America and Russia alike (to the point your government can't even let men retire before their life expectancy runs out), which, to the complete ignorance of those anarcho-capitalists and "small government libertarian conservatives" pursuing this doctrine, will likely bring revolutionary socialism back to the forefront. Except I see it being more possible in the United States than Russia. At least Russia has Putin. Who does America have? Donald Trump. The worst man who could ever have held the office of president at the worst time to hold it. Coincidentally, what's kicking off in the USA but a rising tide of socialist candidates running for office (with a great chance of this becoming radical and organized should something shady happen in the midterms or 2020 election)? All we need is a downturn and a failed war effort. 

But again, if America goes Red in the next five years, that would probably cause a resurgence of fascism in Europe again.

 

I would say that while fascism in our timeline defined itself strongly in its opposition to communism, if there had been less of a communist threat that wouldn't necessarily​have meant fascism would not occur.

 

In general terms fascism occurs when things are crap and people are looking for someone to blame for it. A leader comes along who has simple answers to the issues of the time where none of the blame falls on their support base. In our timeline this was communists, ethnic minorities and foreigners. Without communism, fascism might have looked a bit different but those same targets would exist (with communism replaced by whatever left wing political opponents exist in the country) the same human drives and political tactics would still have been effective and would have been employed by someone​ eventually. 

 

No Idea how or where or why it would have occurred though. 

 

If the UK goes full communist in the wake of the Brexit collapse, maybe this will trigger similar "new deal" type strategies around the world, as everyone goes "uh oh, we need to reign this inequality in!" ?

 

Just looking for a bright side. 






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users