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Do you see China ever invading Mongolia?


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#1
Futurist

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I was wondering if you see China ever invading Mongolia. After all, like Taiwan, Mongolia was historically a part of the Qing Empire. Indeed, the only reason that Mongolia is not a part of China today is that the Soviet Union's military muscle essentially forced China to recognize Mongolia's independence.

 

However, now that China is gradually becoming a superpower, might it eventually lay claim to Mongolia and try using military force to acquire Mongolia?



#2
funkervogt

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As long as Mongolia never poses a threat to China or steps out of line, I think it will be safe from invasion. 


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#3
Outlook

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Mongolia has deep ties with Russia since the USSR, and so any move by China towards Mongolia must mirror its relation with Russia. Clearly, with both seeking to create power that contends with the west, they will keep relations close and aid each other in building a multi-polar world. So, China has pretty much kept its relations close with Mongolia, and will do so for the forseeable future.

I also do not think Russia and China ever have a chance of clashing. Both countries, while bordering, and absolutely massive, have different focuses. Russia has its eyes on Europe, the Middle-east, and the Caucus most of all, which it views as its border/battle-ground with NATO. China on the meanwhile has its eyes on the east and south china seas, and not to mention Kashmir.

And so the two, with their different geopolitical focuses, would not want to clash and create an unnecessary central-asian front.

The only threat, as funkervogt said would Mongolia itself. And since Mongolia is a self-governing democratic middle economy, squished between two of the world's most powerful nations, it seems almost impossible for it to declare any form of aggressive war.

So with all that, Mongolia is safe.
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#4
funkervogt

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I also do not think Russia and China ever have a chance of clashing. Both countries, while bordering, and absolutely massive, have different focuses. Russia has its eyes on Europe, the Middle-east, and the Caucus most of all, which it views as its border/battle-ground with NATO. China on the meanwhile has its eyes on the east and south china seas, and not to mention Kashmir.

And so the two, with their different geopolitical focuses, would not want to clash and create an unnecessary central-asian front. 

Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc.) is the only part of the world where Russian and Chinese interests could clash in the future. There aren't signs it will happen anytime soon though, since, as you point out, they recognize they have bigger priorities elsewhere. 


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#5
Yuli Ban

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Only a Westerner would ever think China wants Mongolia. Trust me on this one: if the industrial revolution hadn't happened and we weren't living in modern times, China and Mongolia would be perfectly content living in complete separation of one another. From a more modern perspective, there simply isn't anything Mongolia has that China might want. Mongolia is like Iran on steroids— a bunch of mountains and steppes. Except unlike Iran, Mongolia is located in an undesirable place. No major trade routes run through them, no major crops are grown there that can't be grown elsewhere, no major industry relies on them— for a nation formed by what was once a stateless group of nomads, this is perfect because it means no one will mess with them.

There are more Mongolians in China than there are Chinese in Mongolia. After all, there's an entire province in China known as "Inner Mongolia". That's about as far as China even wants to go. 

 

So to be clear, the only reason China would invade Mongolia is if, in order from least to most likely:

  • Unobtanium is discovered in the Mongolian steppes
  • China is run by an ultranationalist expansionist who has lost touch with reality
  • Mongolia itself invades China

 

Yes, that is the most likely cause of a Chinese invasion of Mongolia. I personally wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of a modern Mongol horde, but times have changed and the only reason China would risk their relationship with Russia over Mongolia is if some serious alien space bats took place.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.





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