7 replies to this topic

[Yuli Ban]

It's fast becoming obvious that we've stumbled into a new Cold War with China. The trade war was only the opening act.

Funny as hell, I think this is precisely what China needs to push themselves over the brink and achieve true superpower status. They couldn't do it through just a 'peaceful' rise.

 

The US-China Cold War Has Begun

Vice President Pence’s speech to the Hudson Institute Thursday has been widely portrayed in the global press as an official declaration that the world’s two largest economies are engaged in a “New Cold War.” It’s hard to read it any other way.

The origin of the term “Cold War” is generally credited to George Orwell, who used it in a trenchant 1945 essay pondering the geo-strategic implications of the atomic bomb. The existence of a weapon so destructive, Orwell predicted, would put an end to overt shooting wars between great powers, and replace them instead with endless below-the-brink hostilities: espionage, subterfuge, influence-peddling, propaganda, and proxy wars. Conflict would stop short of direct combat—but drag on across many fronts without resolution; the bomb’s legacy, he warned, would be a “peace that is no peace.”

That proved a prescient description of the rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union from 1945 until the collapse of the Berlin Wall—and, in recent months, has become an apt characterization of the Sino-American relationship.

In his Hudson Institute address, Pence detailed a litany of Chinese offenses: meddling in domestic US elections; doling out unfair subsidies to state-owned companies; forcing US companies to surrender technology as the price of competing in the Chinese market; mounting cyber-attacks on US companies and government agencies; recklessly confronting the US naval forces in the South China Sea; bullying Taiwan; and trampling the rights of its own citizens.

China’s goal, Pence charged, was to thwart a second term for Donald Trump, “push the United States of America from the Western Pacific and attempt to prevent us from coming to the aid of our allies.”

Pence’s speech came two days after a Chinese warship sailed within 45 yards of a US destroyer in waters near one of the disputed islets China claims in the Spratly archipelago.

[Yuli Ban]

Beijing’s challenge to US warship in South China Sea ‘deliberate and calculated’, observers say

China was making a clear and deliberate statement that it will not tolerate challenges to its sovereignty when it sent a destroyer to “confront” a US warship in the South China Sea on Sunday, military and diplomatic analysts said. 
The incident happened when a Chinese Luyang-class destroyer sailed within 41 metres (135 feet) of the USS Decatur in an operation described by Washington as “unsafe and unprofessional” and by Beijing as a necessary defence of its territory.

[Yuli Ban]

Are we truly prepared for a war with Russia or China?

It would be terrible if the United States got into a major war, but it would be much worse if it lost one.
Despite growing threats from Russia and China, American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have created weariness in the American public and have focused the country on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency instead of major power warfare.
To deter, and if necessary defeat, Russian and Chinese aggression, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) would likely need a strategy to overcome these obstacles. 
The National Defense Strategy (NDS) seeks to focus the DOD’s efforts on “major power competition” with Russia and China. Recent Russian and Chinese actions indicate a willingness to challenge the international order and the United States’ position in it.
To prevent further adventurism, DOD could better prepare itself by investing in new technologies, developing new ways of employing them and by placing forces where they can quickly be brought to bear. More fundamentally, both the American public and DOD could face a major reorientation to be able to focus on major war.
DOD may not be able to secure the necessary resources or be given the leeway to change how it does business or to redirect its investments without broader public acceptance that the chance of warfare with Russia and China is likely enough to merit additional preparation.
Recent behavior and underlying drivers give reason for concern. For example, both the Putin and Xi governments are worried about their perceived legitimacy and their economic prospects and could engage in foreign adventures to distract from problems at home.

[Yuli Ban]

The U.S. and Russia Are Shrinking Their Nuclear Arsenals—But China Isn't

The number of nuclear weapons worldwide dipped slightly in 2017, with the world’s nine nuclear powers collectively downsizing by 500 weapons.
The United States and Russia entered 2018 with fewer weapons, while China, India, and Pakistan gave their modest arsenals a slight boost. The world’s newest nuclear power, North Korea, is still a mystery with an unknown quantity of nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia individually destroyed more nukes than China has in total, though.

[TranscendingGod]

We're no where near what would be called a "Cold War" if "Cold War" is referring to the state of affairs between the Soviet Union and the United States during the communist reign. There is no impetus for one as of now. 

[Alislaws]

 

Beijing’s challenge to US warship in South China Sea ‘deliberate and calculated’, observers say

China was making a clear and deliberate statement that it will not tolerate challenges to its sovereignty when it sent a destroyer to “confront” a US warship in the South China Sea on Sunday, military and diplomatic analysts said. 
The incident happened when a Chinese Luyang-class destroyer sailed within 41 metres (135 feet) of the USS Decatur in an operation described by Washington as “unsafe and unprofessional” and by Beijing as a necessary defence of its territory.

 

I like how the Chinese asserting control of what is almost their own coastline is an example of "Chinese aggression". 

 

This would be like China getting upset that the USA is trying to assert control of the Caribbean sea. 

 

We're no where near what would be called a "Cold War" if "Cold War" is referring to the state of affairs between the Soviet Union and the United States during the communist reign. There is no impetus for one as of now. 

 

At least this thread is more multipurpose than the "trade war" thread. It can contain china/us trade news and a whole range of things unrelated to trade, And I suspect there will be much more news to come as friction between these powers continues, so still nice to have it, even if the name might be a bit dramatic (for now)

[Outlook]

Pakistan-Indian cold war

Saudi-Iranian cold war

Sino-American cold war

EU-Russian cold war

[Erowind]

It's not a cold war till travel bans appear. As far as I'm concerned this is mostly media spectacle. I think calling this a cold war is a stretch right now, the Chinese aren't culturally alien like the Soviets were. I mean, yes they're vastly different, but economically they're rapidly shifting towards full capitalism. Niether side is prepared to enact Autarky and be independent, a true cold war would kill both economies right now. Maybe in 10-20 years the Chinese could be self sufficient enough to pull that trigger and rely on the new trade routes they're building, but they're not there yet. And the US certainly won't be independent enough to cut trade anytime within the next 30 years with the current political climate.