168 replies to this topic

[Sciencerocks]

Post governorship's, senator races, congressmen, and on down the list. I'll keep this thread updated with results.

 

 

New early vote #s in Arizona:

GOP 41.4%, Dems 33.9%, Others 24%

https://twitter.com/...524470979739648

[Sciencerocks]

1) Some takeaways from early voting: Turnout is up. Not a little, a lot. Younger voters AND older voters. Whites AND non-whites. Dems AND Repubs. (Though groups that favor Dems are up by higher percentages, generally speaking)

2) According to @electproject, 36.2m people voted early, or by absentee so far. That's 132% of the 2014 early/absentee turnout.

3) States that have surpassed early/absentee turnout so far: AZ, DE, DC, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NV, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WV, WI. @electproject: http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

4) Arizona early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +186%
30-39: +148%
40-49: +91%
50-64: +45%
65+: +40%
Hispanics: +115%
Caucasian: +53%
Unmarried: +92%
Never voted: +121%
Dems: +70%
Repubs: +54%

5) Florida early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +130%
30-39: +116%
40-49: +74%
50-64: +48%
65+: +43%
Hispanics: +108%
Af-Ams: +73%
Caucasian: +45%
Unmarried: +85%
Never voted: +11%
Dems: +60%
Repubs: +50%

6) Georgia early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +361%
30-39: +243%
40-49: +153%
50-64: +100%
65+: +77%
Af-Ams: +112%
Caucasian: +117%
Unmarried: +163%
Never voted: +327%

7) Nevada early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +409%
30-39: +260%
40-49: +157%
50-64: +102%
65+: +79%
Hispanics: +260%
Af-Ams: +153%
Caucasian: +105%
Unmarried: +158%
Never voted: +450%
Dems: +137%
Repubs: +88%

8 ) Tennessee early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +663% (!!!)
30-39: +431%
40-49: +337%
50-64: +241%
65+: +244%
Af-Ams: +243%
Caucasian: +333% (!!!)
Unmarried: +340%
Never voted: +930% (!!!)

9) Texas early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +462%
30-39: +295%
40-49: +200%
50-64: +121%
65+: +86%
Hispanics: +236%
Af-Ams: +98%
Caucasian: +133%
Unmarried: +204%
Never voted: +304%

[As We Rise]

RED TSUNAMI 2018!!!

[PhoenixRu]

So, where are the results?

[Sciencerocks]

So, where are the results?

 

The official count is tomorrow

[rennerpetey]

I think I'm going to be up until 2 waiting for those midterm results tomorrow night.  Some interesting stats you posted there.  It seems that many more young people are voting.  I know I would if I could.  I can't even imagine turnout in 2020.

[wjfox]

Brian Krassenstein
@krassenstein
·
1h
This is what a Blue Tsunami Looks like in Snellville, Georgia:

 

https://twitter.com/...876569399742464

 

[video]

[Sciencerocks]

A reminder about the timing of the exit polls: The Edison Research exit poll, which is what most of the networks use, is being conducted right now, and at 5pm Eastern (just under 2 hours from now), Edison will be sharing their preliminary results with the networks.  So then, starting at around 5:10 or 5:15pm or so, we'll start to see various news stories pop up along the lines of X% of the electorate is whites with a college degree, or Y% approve of Trump's performance as president, or whatever.  But they will not release the full toplines of the exit poll for individual races until the polls start closing.

The wrinkle this year is that both Fox News and the AP have split off to do their own thing.  They will not be using Edison, but are instead going with a new system called VoteCast, that's mostly based on online and phone polling.  Details here:

 

https://www.vox.com/...dterm-elections

[Sciencerocks]

The earliest results will be 7pm est on the east coast...Florida starts coming in around that time.

[Sciencerocks]

Battleground district poll: What voters in key districts are saying on Election Day

https://www.washingt.../?noredirect=on

 

... 44% of voters consider the most important factor in the election to be:
Health care

 

... 78% of voters describe the state of the nation's economy as:
Positive

[Sciencerocks]

Democrats won in Guam! DEM pickup

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Trump "strongly disapprove" is VERY HIGH in first CNN Exit Polls.

56% say country is on wrong track, 41% say right track.

 

Strongly disapprove: 47%

 

 

Exit Poll:  Vote today was to…
  Support Trump 26
  Oppose Trump 39
  Trump not a factor 33
  
2010
  Support Obama 23
  Oppose Obama 37
  Obama not a factor 38
  
2006
  Support Bush 22
  Oppose Bush 36
  Bush not a factor 39

[Sciencerocks]

 

Party favorability:

DEM: 50/46 (+4)
GOP: 43/54 (-11)

 

72% white.... least white midterm since... ever. If that is true and holds throughout the night...
    — Aaron Booth (@ActorAaronBooth) November 6, 2018

 

---

Florida ---  51 Approve 48 disapprove of Trump in early exits.

 

---Trump approval, GA: 47/51 (-4)

MSNBC says Abrams is winning a larger share of disapproves than Kemp is winning approves...

[Sciencerocks]

Europe Elects @EuropeElects

US, CNN exit poll:

Favourable View

Democratic Party: 50%
Republican Party: 43%

Trump (approval rating) (REP): 45%
Pelosi (DEM): 31%

  #IVoted #VoteToday #Midterm2018 #Midterms2018 #MidtermElections2018
2:32 PM - Nov 6, 2018

 

Fox News voter analysis data:

65-34 on economy
51% want to repeal Obamacare
46% support the wall
66% think political correctness has gone too far

[Sciencerocks]

Elizabeth Dias 10m ago
Here we go! Our team is in the newsroom and on the ground across America to give you the news and our insights.
Jeremy Peters 6m ago
Polls are closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, where the Sixth District is the night's first big test for House Republicans.

[Sciencerocks]

Indiana U.S. Senate Election Results

 

Mike Braun Republican  2,750 57.4%
Joe Donnelly* Democrat  1,801 37.6
Lucy Brenton Libertarian  244 5.1

4,795 votes, <1% reporting (1 of 5,375 precincts)

 

 

Kentucky’s Sixth House District Election Results: Andy Barr vs. Amy McGrath

Andy Barr* Republican  304 59.0%
Amy McGrath Democrat  207 40.2
James Germalic Independent  3 0.6
Rikka Wallin Independent  1 0.2
Frank Harris Libertarian  0 0.0

515 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 627 precincts)

 

--

update

 

Candidate  Party  Votes  Pct.
Mike Braun  Republican  3,543  56.8%
Joe Donnelly*  Democrat  2,410  38.6
Lucy Brenton  Libertarian  287  4.6

6,240 votes, <1% reporting (5 of 5,375 precincts)

[Sciencerocks]

Mike Braun Republican  5,253 59.2%
Joe Donnelly* Democrat  3,214 36.2
Lucy Brenton Libertarian  401 4.5

8,868 votes, <1% reporting (5 of 5,375 precincts)

 

Big update

Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Mike Braun Republican  13,389 63.2%
Joe Donnelly* Democrat  6,895 32.5
Lucy Brenton Libertarian  909 4.3

21,193 votes, 1% reporting (34 of 5,375 precincts)

* Incumbent

 

I am mainly going to focus on the big races and the seats that maybe at risk.

[Sciencerocks]

Mike Braun Republican  15,410 62.9%
Joe Donnelly* Democrat  8,063 32.9
Lucy Brenton Libertarian  1,044 4.3

24,517 votes, 1% reporting (42 of 5,375 precincts)

* Incumbent

 

U.S. House District 6 ›
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Andy Barr* Republican  734 59.2%
Amy McGrath Democrat  499 40.3
James Germalic Independent  3 0.2
Others  3 0.2

1,239 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 627 precincts)

 

update

Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Mike Braun Republican  15,825 62.4%
Joe Donnelly* Democrat  8,452 33.3
Lucy Brenton Libertarian  1,076 4.2

25,353 votes, 1% reporting (42 of 5,375 precincts)

* Incumbent

[Sciencerocks]

Mike Braun Republican  23,809 60.2%
Joe Donnelly* Democrat  14,177 35.9
Lucy Brenton Libertarian  1,533 3.9

39,519 votes, 1% reporting (68 of 5,375 precincts)