2 replies to this topic

[nillouise]

I think predict future is a serious thing, so it there any book talk about how to predict future,including economy, black swan event, policy, match and any other,the tool use to predict is also important.

 

Personally I read the <Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction> and some book of Ray Kurzweil,there are good enough but more book is better.Thanks!

[funkervogt]

I can't think of a book with such instructions, but it's useful to always keep the following in mind when making predictions:

 

1) Do not make or rely upon predictions that involve violating the known laws of science (physics, chemistry). 

 

2) Just because a technology is theoretically possible doesn't mean humans will want to use it. For example, every American adult could theoretically replace their cars with personal autogyros, but we haven't for multiple reasons. Similarly, the "paperless office" is theoretically possible, but people still cling to paper. Don't ever forget the "Caveman Principle." (https://associations...eman-principle/)

 

3) This is a great list of instructions for evaluating and making future predictions: https://www.militant...-good-futurism/

[KevinStimson]

Dickson P. Forecasting the future. I was reading chapter from the book "Factories of thought".