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Can we fix this Hypocrisy on the timeline?


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#1
SCRuBSFan

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Hello, I've been a STRATFOR.com (George Friedman's Global Intelligence website) member for quite a while now, and have read George Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years", a source that this website's timeline uses in reference in the 2080's "USA Will Cede Land to Mexico" prediction. My Problem is, the very source that is used to say the the USA will cede Territory to Mexico (George Friedman's book) ALSO states that the USA will remain the Global leader (economically and Militarily) into the 21st century (and possibly beyond). However, in the 2020's segment on this timeline, it states America will be surpassed by China. These two statements conflict with each other and I am hoping for a fix. And George Friedman's prediction that the USA will cede land to Mexico is one of the most scrutinized predictions in this man's book. He predicts that America will actually have another golden age and remain dominate well into the 21st century. So it makes the "China will Surpass America" statement illegitimate. He also predicts that China will fall into a Economic crisis in the 2020's and fall backinto civil war. Check this link to this video (you might want to add this): http://pragcap.com/s...a-will-collapse Can we please get a fix to the timeline please? http://www.futuretim...30-2039.htm#usa http://www.futuretim...o-usa-territory Thanks SCrUBS

#2
Azevo

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I would suggest next time using the "Suggestions and Feedback" part of the forum. ;) You are right, and I feel more thought is needed towards that aspect of the time line.

#3
Nom du Clavier

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You're using a classic 'argument from authority' statement there. George Friedman is but one man and is no more omniscient than Steve Jobs is. Reality Distortion Field notwithstanding, yes, you're right to point out conflicting statements on the timeline and suggested fixes are no doubt welcome. As however Friedman's book is one of a myriad of sources used in the compilation of the timeline, you'll appreciate that even after fixing this discrepancy, it's unlikely the timeline will agree with Friedman's view entirely --- more factors taken into account beyond Friedman alone may lead to the conclusion by the timeline's author, and indeed Friedman's conclusion as one source in many, may differ. As for the confrontational use of hypocrisy in the title for what's likely an oversight, hyperbole much? Addendum: I'm not saying I agree with the timeline presented in its entirety, but for arguments sake let's suggest that the timeline's author may have concluded Friedman was right up until, say 2020. Does it then follow he must slavishly agree with the rest of the man's predictions? It's not all or nothing. That Friedman may have solid arguments for part of the future does not mean we have to agree, or even if we do that we agree with his assessment for the future past that point. I for one think if one of the two countries is likely to fall into disarray and have a civil war, it'll be the USA, not China. People are fed up with bailouts for the companies who caused untold misery, then be told they're fired, medicare cuts, the recent renewal of the PATRIOTact and the TSA's sexually assaulting people in the name of security theater. I could go on and on listing the discontent people have, but you really don't see the possibility of this boiling over, at all? Not even with the middle eastern revolutions reminding people they're allowed to demonstrate and voice that discontent? Maybe then when the remaining bit of oil is finally beyond the reach of the average citizen and the governments and corporations still haven't gotten around to widespread alternatives ready to take over without disruption of service? I'm not saying this will indeed come to pass, but to point out to China and saying there will be a civil war, and suggesting the USA will have another golden age is I think a bit shortsighted.
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#4
Random Guy

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Just wait and see, everybody. It's not like we won't live to see the collapse of China. I find that the one prediction of George Friedman's that Mr. Fox agrees with is the least likely to come true.

#5
SCRuBSFan

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You're using a classic 'argument from authority' statement there. George Friedman is but one man and is no more omniscient than Steve Jobs is. Reality Distortion Field notwithstanding, yes, you're right to point out conflicting statements on the timeline and suggested fixes are no doubt welcome. As however Friedman's book is one of a myriad of sources used in the compilation of the timeline, you'll appreciate that even after fixing this discrepancy, it's unlikely the timeline will agree with Friedman's view entirely --- more factors taken into account beyond Friedman alone may lead to the conclusion by the timeline's author, and indeed Friedman's conclusion as one source in many, may differ.

As for the confrontational use of hypocrisy in the title for what's likely an oversight, hyperbole much?

Addendum:

I'm not saying I agree with the timeline presented in its entirety, but for arguments sake let's suggest that the timeline's author may have concluded Friedman was right up until, say 2020. Does it then follow he must slavishly agree with the rest of the man's predictions? It's not all or nothing. That Friedman may have solid arguments for part of the future does not mean we have to agree, or even if we do that we agree with his assessment for the future past that point.

I for one think if one of the two countries is likely to fall into disarray and have a civil war, it'll be the USA, not China. People are fed up with bailouts for the companies who caused untold misery, then be told they're fired, medicare cuts, the recent renewal of the PATRIOTact and the TSA's sexually assaulting people in the name of security theater. I could go on and on listing the discontent people have, but you really don't see the possibility of this boiling over, at all? Not even with the middle eastern revolutions reminding people they're allowed to demonstrate and voice that discontent? Maybe then when the remaining bit of oil is finally beyond the reach of the average citizen and the governments and corporations still haven't gotten around to widespread alternatives ready to take over without disruption of service?

I'm not saying this will indeed come to pass, but to point out to China and saying there will be a civil war, and suggesting the USA will have another golden age is I think a bit shortsighted.


The USA is a socially stable country. The People living here are upset with the massive government debt and federal deficit (and the other things you listed), but not nearly anywhere close to a civil war (I live here in California, and we love our country, even the ones of us who do not approve of the current administration). We have food when we need it, we have rights, and we have a say in our goverment. The same cannot be said about China. China's social stability is only kept in check by the CCP's promise that there will be massive Economic growth, and the massive internal security and crackdowns that are common in the country. To prove my point, they just declared martial law in inner Mongolia yesterday after there where protests by local farmers upset with the ethnic Han influx of coal miners (that where damaging crops).

If China's Economic growth slows too much (reaching growth rates of a normal country), it will leave millions unemployed (and with their low income rates, many will ultimately starve). That in turn would lead to uprisings against the CCP, who, as I have said before, only have legitimacy due to their platform of offering Economic growth. A civil war in China is far more likely than one in the USA, and anyone who disagrees with that needs to be checked out by a doctor.

And My main post was to bring up the fact that there is a lot of controversial statements on the timeline that, if traced back to their sources, contradict each other. When presenting a topic, you don't pick and choose what you agree with, but rather what is commonly accepted and more or less proven. The Timeline has a hint of Anti-American twist to it, and is using information that contradicts itself to prove it. If one is at all going to try and look towards the future with any form of accuracy, there needs to be a extensive look into what information is being used, and whether or not that information matches prior predictions.

And it doesn't need to be "all or none". But in cases where there is a Contradiction, it does. So it should be fixed, if there is to be any legitimacy to this timeline (this applies to all topics, not just the one I brought up).


SCRuBSFan

#6
TheSingularity

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Greetings All, I was very excited to find this site. I have been an avid amateur futurist since I was a kid in the 1980s. This site has, so far as I have been able to find, the most detailed and technologically informed timeline. However, anybody who reads the predictions carefully (I've read through 2030-2039) notices that all breakthrough research (whether in energy, biotechnology, nanotechnology, cybernetics, CPUs and everything else) occurs in the EU, all beneficial and successful "mega-projects" occur in the EU and all instances of great economic growth and prosperity occur in the EU. Asia gets some (very minor) table scraps of praise. The United States is a parched, economically stagnant, environmentally decayed society lagging behind in every aspect of development. Indeed, if the United States is mentioned, there is a 70% chance that the words "near bankrupt" are close by. This is utterly and simply laughable. The United States, not the EU, currently leads in energy, biotechnology, nanotechnology, cybernetics and CPUs. The EU only recently pulled even with the United States in civil aircraft design and manufacturing -- and that thanks to a nonrecurring 12 billion euros in illegal government handouts (as ruled by the WTO). I am quite skeptical that an organization that has German, French and English government involvement will be a leader in bleeding edge technology. The EU and its constituent nations have GREATER government debt liabilities per citizen (or resident) and lower discretionary income per person in order to deal with such liabilities. The EU is greying fast, second to Japan and is undergoing turmoil in its immigration policies. The United States is creating, slowly and gradually, a private market (in addition to public research) in space development. I am unaware of any such efforts in Europe. I could just go on and on and on. But the main point is that the originators of this thread are correct, in that there is more than a small whiff of anti-Americanism, wishful pro-Unionism and just plain magical thinking in the timeline. And, in case you were wondering, I am not the only one who thinks so. No less than the Chinese government has assessed that the next century will be a competition between the U.S. and China, with the EU as junior player. Google it.

#7
TreeHandThing

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The Timeline has a hint of Anti-American twist to it, and is using information that contradicts itself to prove it.


I agree 100%. Will Fox seems like a nice guy, but my only beef with him is that he seems to be driving for the fall of the United States. If you take a look at the timeline, you can immediately see proof of it. The United States will not collapse into civil war. You are all just jealous of this wonderful country. We may be in debt, but hey, we aren't in the depression. The United States will not fall under China's might. You are all just anti-American crazies. If you actually lived in the United States, you would understand.

#8
TreeHandThing

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Anybody who reads the predictions carefully (I've read through 2030-2039) notices that all breakthrough research (whether in energy, biotechnology, nanotechnology, cybernetics, CPUs and everything else) occurs in the EU, all beneficial and successful "mega-projects" occur in the EU and all instances of great economic growth and prosperity occur in the EU. Asia gets some (very minor) table scraps of praise. The United States is a parched, economically stagnant, environmentally decayed society lagging behind in every aspect of development. Indeed, if the United States is mentioned, there is a 70% chance that the words "near bankrupt" are close by.


If the London riots happened in any United States city, they would send out the National Guard and it would be over in an hour. Will Fox's mental fantasy of a future where the United States turns into a third world country is laughable.

#9
GNR Rvolution

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I didn't think that that there was that much anti-americanism on the site, certainly from my perspective I don't see the US falling into civil war any time soon! However, I do see global power being eroded from the country by a number of external states and this will begin to impact on the US in the next few years. I would say however that the EU is in a far worse state and I wouldn't be surprised if it disbanded within the next 5 years, which could bring turmoil to many of those countries involved! One thing that is lacking from any predictions that I've seen is any mention of Russia - are they a done country or is there more to come from them? I certainly think they still have aspirations to greatness and there are a lot of wealthy individuals over there, might it be that they end up leading the privatised space industry?
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#10
Time_Traveller

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Hello,

I've been a STRATFOR.com (George Friedman's Global Intelligence website) member for quite a while now, and have read George Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years", a source that this website's timeline uses in reference in the 2080's "USA Will Cede Land to Mexico" prediction. My Problem is, the very source that is used to say the the USA will cede Territory to Mexico (George Friedman's book) ALSO states that the USA will remain the Global leader (economically and Militarily) into the 21st century (and possibly beyond). However, in the 2020's segment on this timeline, it states America will be surpassed by China. These two statements conflict with each other and I am hoping for a fix.

And George Friedman's prediction that the USA will cede land to Mexico is one of the most scrutinized predictions in this man's book. He predicts that America will actually have another golden age and remain dominate well into the 21st century. So it makes the "China will Surpass America" statement illegitimate. He also predicts that China will fall into a Economic crisis in the 2020's and fall backinto civil war. Check this link to this video (you might want to add this):

http://pragcap.com/s...a-will-collapse

Can we please get a fix to the timeline please?

http://www.futuretim...30-2039.htm#usa

http://www.futuretim...o-usa-territory

Thanks

SCrUBS



I'm not really 100% sure that the USA would split in the 2080's, so i agree with Scrubsfan on this.

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#11
Innsertnamehere

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I believe the reason why the timeline seem to lean towards the EU is due to the websites owner living there, and being exposed to more news about what is happening there. Meanwhile largely the only US news that reaches the UK is political and economic news, which is not good news right now.

#12
Zachemc2

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Hello,

I've been a STRATFOR.com (George Friedman's Global Intelligence website) member for quite a while now, and have read George Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years", a source that this website's timeline uses in reference in the 2080's "USA Will Cede Land to Mexico" prediction. My Problem is, the very source that is used to say the the USA will cede Territory to Mexico (George Friedman's book) ALSO states that the USA will remain the Global leader (economically and Militarily) into the 21st century (and possibly beyond). However, in the 2020's segment on this timeline, it states America will be surpassed by China. These two statements conflict with each other and I am hoping for a fix.

And George Friedman's prediction that the USA will cede land to Mexico is one of the most scrutinized predictions in this man's book. He predicts that America will actually have another golden age and remain dominate well into the 21st century. So it makes the "China will Surpass America" statement illegitimate. He also predicts that China will fall into a Economic crisis in the 2020's and fall backinto civil war. Check this link to this video (you might want to add this):

http://pragcap.com/s...a-will-collapse

Can we please get a fix to the timeline please?

http://www.futuretim...30-2039.htm#usa

http://www.futuretim...o-usa-territory

Thanks

SCrUBS

YES, YES, YES! I've been too lazy to write about the slanted predictions. FT needs a little rewriting to be a little less... anti-American.

#13
OrbitalResonance

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Why is an indifferent view seen as anti-something. I do agree, the ceding of land dose seem too incredible though.

We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers. - Carl Sagan


#14
Logically Irrational

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To me, it seems that the 2080s is just too far ahead to know anything for sure, at least with specific politics. This doesn't mean ceding the land won't happen, but for all we know, it could go the other way. One may seem more likely than the other, but so much could happen before then. I know the timeline is part fiction, so I suppose it all depends on how far you want to go into fiction (i.e. specific events at specific dates). It could make the timeline really fun to read though. :happy:
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