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The 2020s

2020 2025 2029 2020s

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#1
Yuli Ban

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We're getting close to the start of the new decade, so why not create a decade-wide prediction thread? 

In this case, the only specific year you should focus on is 2029— and only as the end of the decade. Basically, if you have a prediction for what might happen in 2025, a decent recommendation is to run with it to the decade's end. 

For example: 

The first general-purpose utility humanoid robot will be released for commercial sale by 2025.

 

That's good, but not perfectly ideal since there's still some ambiguity. Does it sell well by 2030? Is it still an overpriced, niche product by the end of the decade? Don't meticulously go year by year unless you're willing to put in the time and effort. 


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
tomasth

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I'm waiting to see how much can a BCI capture and how much of this can be decipher , in the next 5 years.



#3
Raklian

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Spearheaded by the European Space Agency after the successes of the Heavy Falcon and Starship launches, a permanent colony on the moon will be settled in 2025 at the earliest.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#4
starspawn0

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I may write something later.  Here is what I wrote 4 years ago what the world of 2025 might look like:

 

https://www.futureti...k-like-in-2025/

 

2025 is about 6 years away.  If you count late 2025, it's closer to 7.  

 

I wrote that before Google Home, and just after Alexa was released, back when it was barely functional.  Since then, it has improved "exponentially".  And remember, we now have Google Duplex, and Alibaba's version, which is even better (by a mile, according to reports).

 

Use of Home and Alexa, and also virtual assistants via voice has been increasing exponentially, particularly among young people.  Most of my Assistant interactions are by voice.

 

Some of what I predicted has already come to pass, such as the news summary feature, which is now possible, though maybe not yet deployed (Salesforce had some research on this that made a splash a year or two ago; Facebook, too).

 

Machine reading has also greatly improved.  It's not yet good enough to read documents to check complicated numerical logic; but it can now answer factoid -- and even more sophisticated -- questions with good accuracy.  This is how Google Home is able to answer so many questions -- it can read Wikipedia and find answers, saying, "Here's what I found... [quotes Wikipedia or gives direct answer]."

 

Probably the tech is good enough now to translate domain-restricted documents to formal representations with good accuracy; and formal reasoning engines can check the logic.  So, the machine-reading part of my prediction is also possible, given that restriction.  But you would need somebody to actually write the domain-specific reading and reasoning system.

 

This is probably a dead-end, though.  The future will be to use a unified reading-reasoning system with a giant neural net.  They will probably either be built by infusing brain data, and/or pretraining on large amounts of text + fine-tuning of some kind.  I don't see a future in external, hard-coded symbolic reasoning systems.

 

The self-driving cars will be here by 2025.  Level 4, not level 5.  And some small percent of the population will be using them -- next-gen TESLAs.

 

The construction robots will be here, too.  They are starting to take over brick-laying, surveying, and other jobs.  Many more will be done by robot by 2025.  They're not general-purpose, though.

 

Digital driver's licenses are starting to appear.  I don't know how many states use them, probably about 10 to 15 right now.  In the past year or two many more have been looking into it.  Maybe most states will allow it in 5 years.  Many now allow you to use digital car insurance cards; and some don't even ask you for it, if you get pulled over -- they have it in their computers, already.

 

China is far ahead of the U.S. in terms of biometric identification.  You really can buy stuff in some stores there, just using your face.  Some European countries, like Sweden, are going cashless.  And more and more restaurants and stores in the U.S. are going cashless, too.  A few of the restaurants I eat at are cashless.  Occasionally, I pull money to pay, and they remind me they are cashless.

 

We now have Apple's FaceID.  The tech will get better and better, and harder and harder to hack or defeat.

 

We also have cashierless stores starting to appear, such as Amazon Go.  Who could have predicted it would arrive so soon?

 

Farmbots are getting better, too.  There are experimental farms managed entirely by robot.  Maybe by 2025 we will see this expand.  Maybe I was too optimistic there.

 

As to people moving out of cities and using VR, I was probably too optimistic.  I was probably also too optimistic about AI prescribing medicine; but I think diagnosis will be pretty good by 2025.  Babylon Health is working on it; and maybe Deepmind will make a big splash on this -- not really the kind of project they tend to focus on, but they have signalled an interest in helping advance automated diagnosis.

 

I was probably too pessimistic about tech unemployment, though it depends on whether there is an economic downturn around 2025, as these tend to cause high unemployment and rapid automation.

 

One thing I didn't predict at all was the coming BCI revolution.  I only first became aware of what is coming late in 2015, early 2016.

 

I'll get back to this with some predictions about 2029.

 

The main things to keep in mind are:  don't focus on a specific company, as companies are fickle; and be mindful of the difference between what's possible in theory, and what will actually be deployed.

 

Addendum:  one thing to keep in mind is that when this future arrives, it won't feel futuristic.  It will seem as though nothing has really changed.  That's just how the mind works.  "We were promised a glorious future.  Sure, we've got supercomputer smartphones thay can talk to us and answer our questions, but that's not really very futuristic."  

 

Some of the things might be here already, that people aren't even aware of.  Digital driver's licenses is one example.  How many know whether their states allow them?



#5
Yuli Ban

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World News

  • Brexit is a catastrophe in every sense of the word. It's a No-Deal Brexit with nowhere near enough preparation. An initial period of calm (and gloating by the Leavers over the world not immediately ending) descends into panic as food becomes scarcer and scarcer, military police have to patrol the streets, and previously controversial anti-privacy measures are forced through with gusto by the Conservatives as a means of "protecting national security." Scandals rage over news that the wealthy/aristocrats are hoarding or importing food while the common people starve and both sides try to own the rage. It triggers far too much stress for the UK to handle, and the nation enters an economic depression and either turns into an authoritarian socialist soviet-style republic under Jeremy Corbyn or breaks apart altogether. This frames much of the 2020s in Europe as they have to deal with a brand new "white migrant crisis" coming from the UK and Ireland (because there's no chance Ireland escapes this mess). The Troubles flare up again in Northern Ireland, but with renewed ferocity due to economic hardships. The spectacular failure of Brexit casts an extremely negative shadow over other populist/rightist movements in Europe and Euroscepticism changes into a policy of reforming the EU from within.
  • Germany lurches to the left with the rise of the Green Party and collapse of Alternative fur Deutschland.
  • Trump wins re-election in 2020 against either Beto O'Rourke or Kamala Harris, but has to deal with the Democratic House and Senate. The Dems have a majority in the House as well as a majority of governorships on top of grassroots momentum from the progressives and socialists. If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders emerge victorious in the primary, however, they will have a much better shot against Trump.
  • The USA starts the decade in the middle of a strong economic recession. It would have been mild had it not been for the trade war, which has been prolonged by Trump.
  • China has averted recession at the start of the decade, but their growth remains relatively lethargic.
  • Hong Kong is absorbed into the mainland by 2029.
  • Underneath China's surface of stability and harmony, there is increasing tension out west in Xinjiang. It is likely that it will be proven China is running Holocaust-style concentration camps for Muslims.
  • India undergoes its first economic contraction in the post-GFC era, casting doubt on its ability to overtake China.
  • The Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam become the new Asian Tigers, with Vietnam reaching the level of "high income country" by the end of the decade.
  • Africa continues to industrialize, and this leads to the rise of nationalist sentiments that may transform into home-grown fascism in various countries. However, in others, democratic republicanism will spread and the first place that begins seeing extremely high levels of development is sub-Saharan Africa, particular Namibia.
  • Chinese investment into Africa will also continue, and some nations will be further caught in debt traps as China slowly buys them out.
  • China will also create military bases in Africa.
  • There will likely be another major war in the Congo region, but it won't concern the major Western and Eastern powers at first until either one party gets its hands on WMDs or a fascistic faction emerges victorious and vows to create an expansionist Pan-African superstate.
  • A US-Venezuela war is unlikely, but there will be a civil war that will double as a proxy war of the US vs Russia and China. It will resolve itself with Maduro remaining in power and taking an even more hardline stance against the USA and Brazil, likely coming with the total expropriation of all capitalist assets to end the financial crisis.
  • Brazil survives Bolsonaro relatively unchanged due to a stream of corruption scandals that eviscerates his popularity.
  • Vladimir Putin dies before finishing his term, leading to a new election. Though the West plays up fears of an ultranationalist or communist coming to power (as well as pipe dreams of a pro-Western liberal in the Kremlin), the United Russia party shores up a victorious replacement who lacks Putin's charisma but otherwise will keep the status quo going.
  • Efforts to crush the Kurds early in the decade come to a screeching halt when Erdogan dies while ISIS re-emerges to counter Assad's attempt at restoring rule. An anarcho-socialist Kurdistan eventually takes shape.
  • The death of Erdogan has catastrophic effects in Turkey, where the political climate is polarized between the liberal opponents and conservative supporters, resulting constant strife going forward.
  • The House of Saud collapses sometime this decade. Much of the family escapes overseas, and those left behind are butchered by radicals not unlike the events of the Russian Revolution. What rises in its place is a shaky republic filled with radical liberals and radical traditionalists vying for power. Saudi Arabia will likely descend into a balkanized mess of states where warlords vie for power, with only a few pockets of stability.
  • The war in Yemen, thus, comes to a satisfyingly schadenfreudistic end, though violence continues due to pre-existing issues of water scarcity.
  • The UAE manages to avoid much of the chaos in Saudi Arabia.
  • New Zealand is eventually declared "completely compromised" by the CCP.
  • Australia turns very hard to the left early in the decade and has to play catch up for renewable energy tech.

Wild Cards

  • A major world leader will be assassinated.
  • A radical, new tech-centric political philosophy takes root in colleges and online and becomes the most explosively controversial ideology since the publication of the Communist Manifesto.
  • Over the course of 100 days of social strife, the CCP falls and China is either partitioned or becomes a secular republic.
  • Following the collapse of Deutsche Bank and other institutions, Europe suffers a massive economic depression.
  • ISIS returns and takes Syria or Iraq.
  • Radical Islam begins to fade.
  • Another nuclear arms race begins, this time with China joining in. By 2029, at least four nations (USA, Russia, China, and France) have more than 1,000 nuclear weapons.
  • Last but not least, the AI arms race bears fruit by 2029, leading to...

Sci-Tech

  • Brain-computer interface technology matures this decade, and BCIs accelerate the development of artificial intelligence as well as powered cybernetics.
  • The first proto-artificial general intelligence will be created by 2024. It will constantly be an item in pop-science news articles claiming that it has achieved human-level general intelligence for the rest of the decade whenever it gets upgraded or does something incredible. It will almost certainly be a product of Google DeepMind.
  • DeepMind will be sold to SoftBank.
  • Media synthesis technology will mature early in the decade and rapidly improve, leading to "bedroom multimedia franchises" beginning to become a thing later in the decade.
  • Sometime before 2025, a 20+ minute animated short will be uploaded to YouTube and will go viral due to the fact it was at least mostly generated by an AI, with a human team having very little involvement in its creation. It will be a coherent, fully voice-acted endeavor with music pieces and won't be surreal, and each aspect except the narrative structure will be the result of algorithm-generation.
  • Also due to media synthesis, it will be a popular trend to take your own face and/or body and put it into a movie or video game as the decade goes on thanks to deepfake technology. The first major example might be someone replacing Keanu Reeves' face with their own and essentially 'starring' in the Matrix. It will also be possible to do this with voice.
  • A decentralized alternative web will take root early in the decade and become a sizable alternative later in the decade. However, due to the major search engines having superior capabilities, it will never become dominant at least this decade.
  • Global internet population surpasses 7 billion, and the remainder will theoretically have access via global internet schemes, meaning the only way they'll lack access is due to a lack of terminals (e.g. computers, smartphones, etc.) rather than a lack of availability.
  • The James Webb Space Telescope will detect some exoplanet into which scientists put serious credence the possibility of extraterrestrial life.
  • Autonomous weapons systems (the "formal" name for killer/combat robots) spread despite a UN ban.
  • Scientists achieve the creation of a room-temperature superconductor. What's more, they can even push the temperatures at which it can superconduct up to boiling temperatures. However, it will still require high pressure to create, leading to a new rush to create ambient-pressure RTSCs.
  • AI acceleration of scientific progress begins soon, and most likely is used to achieve ambient-pressure RTSCs as well as stable fusion reactors.
  • A manned lunar landing occurs by 2029.
  • Global solar capacity reaches 4 terawatts by 2029.
  • If the Middle East recovers from its strife by then, it will become a major hub of solar power. Baghdad in particular may become a "solar city."
  • Marijuana, hallucinogens, and empathogens will be decriminalized/legalized in most major Western countries by 2029 and used for medical research, especially to assist with he aforementioned BCIs.
  • 5G will bring the Internet of Things into the mainstream, especially if a global internet scheme comes about that will be able to provide 24/7 internet service without data caps.
  • Exascale computing is achieved very early in the decade
  • The first general-purpose quantum computers are finally created
  • Automation begins visibly stinging the job market in Western countries. This may begin leading to a Luddite backlash.
  • Electromagnetic orbs similar to Project MARAUDER are proven as possible to be created from high electric fields, but they seem to have little use.
  • Next generation beyond CRISPR used to create genetically-enhanced animals.
  • The first artificial intelligence "person" is created, though it's extremely controversial and seen as not different from the spectacle of Sophia the Robot's Saudi citizenship.
  • The Turing Test is passed before 2025. This will likely lead to a revised/modified Turing Test that will be passed by 2029.
  • The spread of BCIs makes augmented reality commercially viable as "texting by thinking" becomes possible.

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#6
kendall1287

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  •  turns into an authoritarian socialist soviet-style republic under Jeremy Corbyn 

Huh? Is this real? A social democrat is going to turn the UK into an "authoritarian socialist soviet style republic"? What even is this?



#7
Erowind

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  •  turns into an authoritarian socialist soviet-style republic under Jeremy Corbyn 

Huh? Is this real? A social democrat is going to turn the UK into an "authoritarian socialist soviet style republic"? What even is this?

 

 

Welcome to forum. Yuli is known for some outlandish predictions. If his trend holds a good third of the things up in that thread might actually happen. 



#8
kendall1287

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Lol, I guess I got hit by Poe's Law. And the rest of them were super interesting and thought provoking, too, so that first one really threw me for a loop!



#9
Zaphod

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Lol, I guess I got hit by Poe's Law. And the rest of them were super interesting and thought provoking, too, so that first one really threw me for a loop!

 

The terrifying thing is, I can't think of a good argument to say how that prediction definitely wont happen. 



#10
SkittleBlu

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-The US will experience a profound internal crisis that will lead to a societal transformation. The various socio-political tensions emerging within the country will grow and coalesce until a crisis point is reached near the end of the decade. These tensions will all stem from the struggle for balance between managing empire and preserving the republic. The US has become the sole global power, but it hasn’t yet developed the institutions and the culture needed to manage this power. This development will be an unstable process, marked by social and political upheaval. There may be riots, acts of domestic terrorism, assassinations or even instances of armed conflict. The general consensus among Americans will be that the apocalypse is nigh. However, this internal instability will be no more chaotic than during other periods in its history when the country transformed itself.
  
-The burdens of an aging population will become particularly acute in more developed countries. As the last of the Baby Boomers enter retirement, there’s going to be a growing imbalance in the economy between the number of consumers and laborers that if left unaddressed may prove disastrous over the long-term. An increase in the elderly population is going to put an enormous strain on health care services. There’s also going to be a spike in illnesses commonly associated with old age, such as dementia. In the US, this demographic crisis will amplify the social instability that will already be present due to impending structural changes in the economic and political systems.   
 
-Outer space will develop into a war fighting domain. Militaries already rely on space for a substantial part of their operations, and society as a whole has become dependent on space for such things as communication and intelligence. However, improved space launch capabilities among adversaries has meant that space-based assets have become more vulnerable from attack. Major steps will be undertaken to protect these assets. The US in particular, which is the dominant power in space, will devote an important branch of its military to specialize in developing defensive capabilities in space. This will include making satellites that are more maneuverable and can dodge enemy fire, as well as having satellites that are shielded or equipped with their own weapons. There will also be a growing interest in moving important assets to beyond Low-Earth Orbit. Militaries will thus increasingly treat space as a potential battlefield. 
 
-Spaceflight will become cheaper and more widely available. Government space agencies will be investing heavily in developing technologies that will allow for space launches to be done swiftly and at low cost. There will be a growing need to be able to respond to potential emergencies such as an attack on space-based assets. Many countries will gain the ability to send objects into space. In addition, efforts made by private companies in spaceflight will further bring costs down and make space increasingly commercialized.  
 
-Militaries will posses hypersonic weapons. After many years in development, hypersonic cruise missiles and other similar weapons will be ready for deployment. However, advancements in technology will mean these weapons will continually be refined and replaced. Eventually, some will have the ability to hit a precise target anywhere on the globe in under one hour. By the end of the decade, a hypersonic weapon powered by a scramjet will be able to sustain speeds of at least Mach 20, travel to the other side of the globe, automatically change course, evade threats and hit a precise target with centimeter precision. 
 
-Turkey will expand its power in the Middle East. It will gradually be propelled into ever larger military operations to its south, in response to violence and instability spilling across its borders. These operations will not only be directed at the Kurds, but also at jihadists and any other nearby challengers that threaten Turkish interests. The Turkish military will be growing stronger, and will be able to control large areas of Syria and Iraq. Turkey will also take advantage of other divisions in the Middle East to establish a sphere of influence deep into the Levant and towards the Persian Gulf. Israel, insular and increasingly surrounded, will not be able to take any meaningful action against Turkey. There will be increased tensions between Turkey and Iran. However, Iran will be preoccupied with its own socio-economic problems. As Saudi power wanes, Turkey will use religious fervor to unite populations in the areas it conquers, and will portray itself as a leader of the Sunni Islamic world.   
 
-Saudi Arabia will crack open. International pressure to modernize its society will increasingly clash with religious fundamentalism, leading to social unrest and infighting in the House of Saud. In addition, the oil-dependent economy used to prop up the Saudi Kingdom will no longer be able to hold on. Riyadh will lose its authority over the country, allowing jihadists to make inroads in the power vacuum that will be left behind. Power on the Arabian Peninsula will move from the center (Najd) to the coasts (including Hejaz), where not only the holy city of Mecca is located, but also ports along important global shipping routes.
  
-The Russian Federation will collapse. Its economy, heavily dependent on energy exports, will continue to struggle from oil price fluctuations. International sanctions will do little to help. Intensifying pressure from the US and its allies will force the Russian government into ever higher defense spending, further draining the country of money. As a result, Moscow won’t be able to maintain the flow of revenue to the various oblasts. Russians in far-flung regions will feel further disconnected from the rest of the country. Economic hardship will reach a breaking point. Regional leaders will want to go their separate ways. Eventually, Moscow will lose its grip over the country. At best, Russia will continue to operate as a confederation; some regions may fragment into secessionist parts. The region’s most likely to break away will be those in Karelia, the High Caucasus, and the Pacific Far East. Fragmentation will also spill over into post-Soviet countries formerly under Russian influence, such as Belarus and Ukraine. All around Russia’s periphery, national borders will be redrawn. Surrounding powers will start to impose themselves in the region to try to stabilize the situation and absorb areas into their spheres of influence.
 
-The security of the Russian nuclear arsenal will be of international concern once Moscow loses control. The US in particular will be extremely unnerved, enough to spur it into action. It will not look forward to a complete collapse of Russian authority, and won’t want to have nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists or rogue states. Thousands of unprotected nuclear warheads will be scattered across the hinterlands. The situation could get very dangerous. The US will either have to impose itself in the region, or encourage allies on the periphery (particularly in Central Europe) to move in and absorb the weapons.
 
-Countries in Central Europe will fill in the power vacuum left over from Russia. These countries (the Baltic States, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria) will have benefited heavily from US military and economic support, during their confrontation with Russia. After the collapse of Russia, the US will continue to support these countries as they seek to establish footholds in areas formerly under Russian influence. In particular, Belarus and Ukraine will be areas where these countries will expand their spheres of influence. Turkey will also seize the opportunity to project its power around the Black Sea Basin, unsettling the Europeans. 
 


#11
SkittleBlu

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-China will return to an era of regionalism and internal turmoil. It will undergo the same sort of fragmentation as Russia. However, the forces that will lead to its internal collapse will be more violent and intense. China’s economy, already in shambles, will no longer be able to be kept alive by artificial stimulus. Rising unemployment combined with a vast wealth inequality will contribute to increased unrest. Police and military forces will try to quell frustrations without much success. Competing interests between the wealthy coastal cities and the impoverished interior will cause different factions of the PLA to clash against each other. Divisions within the government itself will fracture its authority. The Communist Party will lose its hold. China will regress back to a state not too dissimilar to what was in place before Mao; regionalism will local chiefs competing and vying for control, accompanied by civil conflict. Regions outside the Han Chinese core will achieve greater autonomy. East Turkestan will break from the shackles of the Communist Party’s grip. Tibet, with help from India, will achieve independence. Taiwan will be freed from Beijing’s influence. All in all, China will be in a state of chaos.
 
-Economic powers will emerge in East Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Combined, these countries will replace China as the world’s new manufacturing hubs. They will simultaneously have low-wage as well as high-growth economies. Some, however, will be facing social and political instability, limiting their growth potential. The countries most likely to grow into significant economic powers include Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Ethiopia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. This shift in production will have a major repercussion on the patterns of global trade, particularly in regards to the US, the world’s largest importer. American economic decoupling from China will result in outsourcing to many of these countries.
 
-Japan will reassert itself. A high dependency on raw material imports, combined with a growing labour shortage and proximity to chaos on the Asian mainland, will force Japan to project its power outward to secure itself. Japan will look to coastal China for labour. Many Chinese trying to wrestle out of Beijing’s control will welcome an increased Japanese presence. After the retreat of Russia, Japan will also start looking to Manchuria and the Pacific Far East for resources. Feeling as if it can no longer rely on American security guarantees, Japan will start carving out its own sphere of military influence that will include building bases on Pacific Islands. It will also develop its capabilities in space, which will be intended for military purposes. As Japan does this, it will shed the rest of its pacifism. Japan will have already had a powerful military, but regaining the experience of independent action will make it even stronger. 
 
-Europe will return to history. The EU will either wither away or degenerate to become a more modest trade zone, encompassing a smaller portion of the continent. The institution will lose its relevancy as member states opt to pursue their own self-interests.  Policies coming out of Brussels will increasingly be ignored. A more normal, historical pattern of fragmentation and tension between nations will arise on the continent. Rivalries that have in some cases been suppressed for centuries will resurface. Although there will be a multitude of secessionist movements, most won’t garner enough power or support to succeed, at least in the short-term.
  
-A united kingdom will be no more. Britain will not be immune to fragmentation and tension as experienced on the European mainland. Its position, however, will allow it to have flexibility in its actions not granted to most other European countries. Although Britain will be leaving the EU, it will still be able to maintain a cohesive economic relationship with many European countries. In addition, it will have the option to lean on allies outside of the continent if necessary. London, which over the last generation has modeled itself as a European financial capital, will be able to reorient its interests back to the rest of England. However, the process of leaving the EU will aggravate divisions within Britain that may lead to a genuine breakup of the union. Divergent interests on the status of Northern Ireland could reignite violence and lead to a diplomatic crisis between Britain and the Irish Republic. Scotland  may succeed with a renewed call for independence. In addition, growing social divisions between the political elite and the working class will keep the government unstable long after the Brexit process follows through.
 
-Germany will undergo a long period of economic decline. The EU is Germany’s largest export market and is fundamental to the prosperity of its economy. The disintegration of the institution and the increase of tensions between nations on the continent will undermine its position as the growth engine of Europe and will lead into the country’s long-term, irreversible decline. Unfavorable demographics and a loss of dynamism will also contribute to its decline.
 
-The computing industry will be past its prime. The development of new products based on the microchip has already reached a limit, but as the technology gets antiquated the losses to the industry will become even more substantial. As a result, most major computing companies will, over the long-term, experience declining profits due to a lack of innovation. Silicon Valley will no longer be the technological and financial hub it once was. Companies will make minor adjustments, change their designs or use clever marketing to try to contain the decline. At the same time, the search will be underway for a completely new technology that will boost production. The next truly revolutionary technology that will transform society on the level computing did in decades past will be being developed covertly by militaries and in laboratories around the world. However, it will not yet be ready for commercial use, let alone mass adoption. By the end of the decade, it still won’t be clear what that new technology will be. Whatever it is will grow suddenly and catch most of the public by surprise.
 
-Batteries will get a major boost. The demand for rechargeable electrochemical batteries will surge. Militaries will increasingly need to rely on batteries to power equipment on the battlefield. Batteries will be needed to power the increasing number of electric vehicles that will be on the roads, as well as to store energy from wind and solar power plants for continuous usage. The preferred type of battery, lithium-ion, uses mainly cobalt in its cathode. The majority of the world’s cobalt reserves are located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, an unstable country. China has had a head start when it comes to using cobalt for lithium-ion batteries, but that will change. There will be increasing international competition in the DRC to secure its cobalt reserves. At the same time, countries will be looking to make batteries using more abundant materials. Much investment will be placed in developing new types of batteries using not only different metals, but completely new elements.
 
-Electric vehicles will start to become mainstream. Declining costs and improved energy densities for rechargeable batteries will lead to explosive growth in the market of electric vehicles. Their range will approach that of gas-powered vehicles. Concern over fossil fuel emissions will also contribute to the growth of electric vehicle usage, especially in public transport. However, the time needed for mass consumer adoption will mean their market penetration still won’t quite match that of gas-powered vehicles by the end of the decade.
 
-Advancements in gene editing will hold some promises in the fight against many auto-immune diseases. Gene therapy will gain widespread adoption in medical institutions as a treatment and preventative measure for a wide variety of conditions. However, as it will still be in its early stages of use its long-term effects will be uncertain and the risk of complications will remain high. Its increasing use among the more wealthy population will fuel ethical debates, about not only its scientific but also cultural merits. 
 


#12
Sephiroth6633

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  •  turns into an authoritarian socialist soviet-style republic under Jeremy Corbyn 

Huh? Is this real? A social democrat is going to turn the UK into an "authoritarian socialist soviet style republic"? What even is this?

 

 

Welcome to forum. Yuli is known for some outlandish predictions. If his trend holds a good third of the things up in that thread might actually happen. 

 

 

If so, then I may be a bit worrying about his Brexit prediction.



#13
waitingforthe2030s

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  • LocationOrion Arm, Milky Way Galaxy.

 

-China will return to an era of regionalism and internal turmoil. It will undergo the same sort of fragmentation as Russia. However, the forces that will lead to its internal collapse will be more violent and intense. China’s economy, already in shambles, will no longer be able to be kept alive by artificial stimulus. Rising unemployment combined with a vast wealth inequality will contribute to increased unrest. Police and military forces will try to quell frustrations without much success. Competing interests between the wealthy coastal cities and the impoverished interior will cause different factions of the PLA to clash against each other. Divisions within the government itself will fracture its authority. The Communist Party will lose its hold. China will regress back to a state not too dissimilar to what was in place before Mao; regionalism will local chiefs competing and vying for control, accompanied by civil conflict. Regions outside the Han Chinese core will achieve greater autonomy. East Turkestan will break from the shackles of the Communist Party’s grip. Tibet, with help from India, will achieve independence. Taiwan will be freed from Beijing’s influence. All in all, China will be in a state of chaos.
 
-Economic powers will emerge in East Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Combined, these countries will replace China as the world’s new manufacturing hubs. They will simultaneously have low-wage as well as high-growth economies. Some, however, will be facing social and political instability, limiting their growth potential. The countries most likely to grow into significant economic powers include Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Ethiopia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. This shift in production will have a major repercussion on the patterns of global trade, particularly in regards to the US, the world’s largest importer. American economic decoupling from China will result in outsourcing to many of these countries.
 

 

 

Can't say I agree with a Chinese collapse- It's been predicted every year for the past 30. I believe that China will grow and prosper. From what I've heard, most Chinese citizens are just fine with their lives.


I'm a radical demo-publiacrat.

 

This is Scatman's world, and we're living in it.


#14
funkervogt

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I think China's economy will slow down, but the country won't collapse.

#15
funkervogt

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I predict something big will happen with Iran. Like, bigger than anything since the Iran-Iraq War. I don't think the status quo is tenable. 

 

Keep in mind, this means things could go either way for Iran. It might exit the status quo by becoming so strong that its rivals are forced to show it more respect, shifting the balance of power in the Middle East in its favor. Iran might build a nuclear weapon and discover that the U.S. and Israel are actually too afraid to fight. 



#16
funkervogt

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The Queen of England will die, Charles will become King, and he won't actually be that bad. 

 

Electric cars will become superior to gas-powered cars.

 

Solar panels will get even cheaper. 

 

The Turing Test will be passed. 

 

Economic growth in most European countries will slow even more due to shrinkage of the population of skilled, healthy workers and growth in the number of dependent people and low-skilled workers (mainly immigrants). This doesn't mean Europe is kaput forever--they and many other declining countries will bounce back late this century thanks to advanced robotics and AI. 



#17
OnedayIwillfly

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Hey everyone. Long time lurker. Wanted to share my thoughts here as the 20's will be very interesting imo.

 

- I think electric cars will play a big role in this decade. A very large percentage of them will dominate the roads in the Western world at least. I think both governments and big car manufacturers will make great efforts this decade to make the 20's a decade of electric cars. 

- Self driving cars. I don't think this is going to happen here. It's too soon. Maybe some tests or busses etc at the end of the decade.

- Supermarkets like the Amazon one. Without employees etc. This is something I would really like. Might actually become widespread at the end of 20's

- Gas stoves will be greatly reduced. Most people will cook on electric stoves.

- More people will be able to afford Solar panels like funkervogt said.

 

I think the 20's will be the decade of everything going electric. We really have to as well with the climate and everything.







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