Irritating that that sort of pussyfooting around will be necessary. People should have the common sense not to blame the parent company for whatever an AI says. The stupidity of people slows down progress as much as legitimate technological challenges do. I'll be glad whenever the technology advances enough that start-up groups can take control and go "fuck this, this is stupid, let's get things moving instead of tip-toeing around out of fear of the general public being a bunch of overreactionary dumbasses."
Case case this is for you, habibi. hope you know I love you!
This is in reply to the comments on the front page of the FTF, not exactly to your post I've quoted. This was so I could send you a notification.
These are some off-the-cuff expectations. The first few I feel a little more balls out about, some others are just conjecturing so I hope you can bare with me, Case.
(1) Car ownership will become a moot point. In the year 2029, I think ride-share companies will boast autonomous vehicle fleets in most developed nations, which will be cheap enough (even taking into account those thieving regulatory-highway-men-mofos) to change the mindset of the population. The current mindset is "buy a car or catch public transport. If you've some dollars to flaunt then ride share". In 2029, the mindset will be "ridesharing is the cheapest of the convenient options. Own a car if you're an art aficionado".
(2) Space economics will have twirled on its knobhead. There's a lot to do in space, especially considering geopolitical considerations. Both the U.S. and China will be frothing over space access and the private sector will be cramming to get to orbit. Fully reusable launch vehicles will have thrown the game. The Aitken crater (or its North-pole counterpart) will be all the rage. The U.S. will have landed there already. The rest of the world will be hot on its heels. In 2029, projects we would have thought sounded sci-fi (like comms, telescopes, refuelling, experiments etc) will see launch manifests obese with eager payloads. I don't think the world will have exploded necessarily with payloads to the Earth-Moon system by 2029, but it will be an order of magnitude above today and be breading frenzy, and the affordability of access will be turning nations on their knobheads.
(3) AI will have past the turing test etc, etc. It's a little tough to see just how large an impact AI will have had by 2029 but I think it will be extraordinarily stark compared to the present. People won't exactly be feeling some singularity effect by this point. What people will feel is the rate of change pick up so dauntingly that it's all anyone will be able to speak about. Visual AI tools like deepfake are just the beginning. AI will be overwhelming every corner of human thought in 2029 so the political sphere, business sphere, philanthropic sphere etc will be bifurcated into the optimists and the pessimists. Those who see AI doing incredible things and think "gee wiz, let's solve our problems", and those who see the writing on the walls, "this doth not bode well for I".
(4) Oorah! The military is already prototyping augmented reality into their battle systems. They're already using (DARPA-ticked) android information systems on the platoon level. By 2025 the U.S. military (and other Tier-1 western militaries like Aus, the U.K., and Canada [lol]) will be using augmented reality systems on the platoon level. By 2029, there's some possibility COTS AR will be standard issue. The maturity and functionality of 2019 systems leads me to believe (as well as military interest in the tech) that in 2029, AR will be an integral part of the battlespace.
(5) Vaping's gonna be the shit. People will still be people. Nicotine will still be nicotine. Let's vape.
(6) AI will be all anyone will be able to talk about. There are three points here:
(a) AI will be so sophistocated that it will be freaking everyone out. It will have done this years beforehand but in 2029, this collective mindfuck will still be going on.
(b) AI 'stealing' jobs is going to be all the rage. I think in 2024 the election cycle's going to be (along with China), the major subject matter of the election cycle. In 2029 it will be preeminent.
© One favourable point will be content creation. Have you ever seen the YouTube channel, Dust? It's a sci-fi short-film channel. Full of crap. Really bad plotlines and production qualities. There are however some good ones. One of which was turned into Dust's first feature-length film. It's on Netflix. It's called Prospect and I thought it was exceptionally good for a $4.9m budget. I thought they did it very well regardless of the budget (the western accent could have been toned down a lot. Pedro Pascal is a terrific actor and I have a lot of love for him, so I lay the blame on the director here, but his character could have been made so much more subtle). In 2029, the progeny of Deepfakes will be so good, amateur films (produced by one geek in a bedroom) will be acceptable production quality for 2019. Graphics, voice acting, scenery, set, etc will be produced by a single mofo in his stinky bedroom, uploaded to the successor to YouTube (I'll mention later) and be great. AI will distribute production capacity throughout the greasy masses.
(7) Society will be going through the counter 'tik' to today. As per (think it's Voltaire's?) notion of the tik-tok, thesis-antithesis-synthesis notion of society, I think society is currently approaching the apogee of its 'tok' where the public opinion has changed from liberal to conservative. As was expected by this very vague intuition of society, the previous 'tik' was reached when Obama was elected to his second term. If you remember, during the Obama era, saying "radical Islamic terrorism" was a horrendously taboo topic. I think that's emblematic of just how censored / authoritarian society become before the 'tok' came. I think the corner of society where SJW (as we're calling it in this 'tik') is dominant before the countermomentum takes over and continues the cycle. Throughout the 2020's, I can only believe a countermovement will dominate the authoritarian progressive moment and re-emphasise the values of free speech and whatever else conservatives care about. Around 2029, I think the pendulum will probably be shifting in the other direction again and moving towards the next 'tik', perhaps it will be opposing authoritarian conservatism, climate change, blah blah blah. Hard for me to say, but I think in the left-right spectrum, by 2029, society will have overcompensated towards the right and the left will be the counterculture/liberals again.
( Solar will be a phat part of the energy mix. I've managed a 50MW energy project now and I've seen first hand (a) how slow energy projects are, and (b) how fast solar projects are. Energy projects are slow, solar projects are the fastest of the slow. It's night & day. I don't see any reason why solar projects won't continue outpacing others for the next 10 years. Not until we hit the peaking bottleneck. Depends on the market, depends on the vision particular ministers foresee for their provinces but solar is an easy utility to work with.
(9) Dating will be overhauled. With big data, social networks, and other such personally invasive creep shows, in 2029 we'll see companies know almost perfectly who you would love. It may be the case that you will have 'friend suggestions' of those you'd love (& obviously vice versa) but it may also be the case that as you meander through Quora, Youtube comments, blah blah etc, you'll constantly encounter those who you will by all metrics probably love or be close to. It's going to be weird. Goes hand-in-hand with people being severely freaked out by AI, but we'll start to be treated as pets by our AI services. They'll be shoving us and our soulmates together with screamingly freaky accuracy. Love will be found predominantly via these IT services, whatever form they may take.
(10) I've spoken in the past on the FTF about some of the 2020's predictions. There will be seamlessness with connectivity between all of your products. You'll be listening to your music via your wireless earphones for example, then you'll step into your car and as you take your earphones out, your car will continue playing the song through the speakers etc. Be playing on your phone, see an ad for a cool game on a steam-like network, then immediately start playing it on your widescreen. Be using your phone (a.k.a., handheld product) then buy a game, put on your wireless VR headset, and immediately start playing (probs already doable, I just don't use the products so don't know).
2029 is gonna be dope. It's also gonna be a place of severe stress because of AI. IIRC, 7 million call-centre jobs in the USA alone will be displaced due to AI before the 2024 election. Another 30 million workers by 2028. Factory workers, truck drivers, the secondary economies like diners that are built around these primary industries etc. By 2024, technological unemployment will be a primary topic. By the 2028 elections, AI supremacy will be a primary topic. 2029m will see AI being a massive displacement. I think this is paramount because (1) it's going to change everything, and (2) it's changing fast.
AI be big balls.