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Chinese military tech will surpass Russian tech within 10 years


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#1
funkervogt

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According to an internal Kremlin study...in less than ten years China will have little use for Russian-made military hardware given the country's massive indigenous R&D investments. It is thus less surprising that Russia has been selling China some of its most advanced military hardware including Sukhoi Su-35S (NATO reporting name: Flanker-E) fighter jets and S-400 Triumf interceptor-based long-range air defense systems (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler) given that the Chinese market, it is assumed, will soon dry up for Russian imports.

https://worldview.st...a-military-ties

 

I've made previous threads on this forum describing China's military advances, and estimating that their level of military technology had either surpassed Russia's or was soon going to do so. 


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#2
Maximus

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Not surprising, given how they're economy has dwarfed Russia's for some time now. More money means more fun things to spend it on.



#3
Raklian

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Russians will have no choice but to get warier of China.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#4
Yuli Ban

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Russians will have no choice but to get warier of China.

Conversely, their relationship might get stronger. Russian military tech is still nothing to scoff at, so combining Russian and Chinese tech would mean the West would truly face a legitimate threat.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
Jakob

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Russians will have no choice but to get warier of China.

Conversely, their relationship might get stronger. Russian military tech is still nothing to scoff at, so combining Russian and Chinese tech would mean the West would truly face a legitimate threat.

 

Russia and China don't really like each other much, they only stand together because they have historically needed to to take on the Western world.



#6
caltrek

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Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the "Cold War" was a bit of a three ring circus. 

 

Nixon supporters boasted of how Nixon "played the China card" against the Soviet Union. Before that, China and Russia put on the veneer of being allies.  Yet, just beneath the surface, nationalistic considerations created severe tensions.  In 1969, the correspondent Harrison Salisbury even wrote a book entitled War Between Russia and China in which he dwelled on the possibility of an eminent war between the two countries. 

 

In the early years of the Chinese revolution, Mao was a bit of a puppet of the Soviet Union.  As control over China was consolidated, Mao demonstrated increasing independence from the Soviet bloc.  So much so that while most Communist movements throughout the world were sponsored by the Soviets, many leftists came to consider themselves Maoists. Mao was a prolific writer, so his stature among Communists came to rival Marx, Lenin, and Stalin.

 

If the past is any indication, I expect that future Sino-Russian relations will oscillate through time.  Sometimes they will be allies, sometimes bitter foes, sometimes something in between. Some of that will depend upon whether they each view Europe and the United States and /or Europe as enemies, or merely economic rivals. That too may oscillate through time. Too me, it is obviously in everybody's interests to "just get along."  Unfortunately there will probably always be hardliners  who scoff at such sentiments as being hopelessly utopian.  So humanity may very well end up choosing between "hopelessly utopian" ideals, or self-incineration. Welcome to our planet folks. 


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#7
Outlook

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The article says more on how advanced Russia is than it does how close China is to catching up. It's not like the Russians are stagnant, they're fighting proxy wars in Syria and Ukraine, building theory and experience. Wars they are winning considerably in. Also, cyber warfare and security.

I'd give it a couple more decades for China to reach the same quality in their military as Russia.
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#8
funkervogt

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The article says more on how advanced Russia is than it does how close China is to catching up. It's not like the Russians are stagnant, they're fighting proxy wars in Syria and Ukraine, building theory and experience. Wars they are winning considerably in. Also, cyber warfare and security.

I'd give it a couple more decades for China to reach the same quality in their military as Russia.

The article references an internal Kremlin study in which the Russians admit that China will achieve military technology parity within 10 years. Presumably, the Russians who did the analysis took into account the pace of both countries' technological improvement when they extrapolated when the two lines would cross. 


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#9
Erowind

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The article says more on how advanced Russia is than it does how close China is to catching up. It's not like the Russians are stagnant, they're fighting proxy wars in Syria and Ukraine, building theory and experience. Wars they are winning considerably in. Also, cyber warfare and security.

I'd give it a couple more decades for China to reach the same quality in their military as Russia.

The article references an internal Kremlin study in which the Russians admit that China will achieve military technology parity within 10 years. Presumably, the Russians who did the analysis took into account the pace of both countries' technological improvement when they extrapolated when the two lines would cross.
Outlook was also accounting for tactical and logistical knowledge which the study omitted. And while I know the point of the study was to only discuss tech. Outlook was broadening the conversation by opening the room to what other elements make a military effective. If I'm wrong feel free to correct me btw.
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#10
Alislaws

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Russia will stay wary of China i think.

 

The reality is China has the highest population in the world, and Russia has the most land area and natural resources so China will always have a long term incentive to possibly take a chunk out of Russia. 

 

Would be interesting to hear from PhoenixRu on how china is viewed by Russians generally, whether they see them more as an ally against the west/USA than a threat or a rival.



#11
Yuli Ban

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Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the "Cold War" was a bit of a three ring circus. 

 

Nixon supporters boasted of how Nixon "played the China card" against the Soviet Union. Before that, China and Russia put on the veneer of being allies.  Yet, just beneath the surface, nationalistic considerations created severe tensions.  In 1969, the correspondent Harrison Salisbury even wrote a book entitled War Between Russia and China in which he dwelled on the possibility of an eminent war between the two countries. 

 

In the early years of the Chinese revolution, Mao was a bit of a puppet of the Soviet Union.  As control over China was consolidated, Mao demonstrated increasing independence from the Soviet bloc.  So much so that while most Communist movements throughout the world were sponsored by the Soviets, many leftists came to consider themselves Maoists. Mao was a prolific writer, so his stature among Communists came to rival Marx, Lenin, and Stalin.

 

If the past is any indication, I expect that future Sino-Russian relations will oscillate through time.  Sometimes they will be allies, sometimes bitter foes, sometimes something in between. Some of that will depend upon whether they each view Europe and the United States and /or Europe as enemies, or merely economic rivals. That too may oscillate through time. Too me, it is obviously in everybody's interests to "just get along."  Unfortunately there will probably always be hardliners  who scoff at such sentiments as being hopelessly utopian.  So humanity may very well end up choosing between "hopelessly utopian" ideals, or self-incineration. Welcome to our planet folks. 

Or, to put it succinctly: "We have always been at war with Eastasia".


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#12
funkervogt

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Russia will stay wary of China i think.

 

The reality is China has the highest population in the world, and Russia has the most land area and natural resources so China will always have a long term incentive to possibly take a chunk out of Russia. 

But China wouldn't do that because it would know that Russia might use nuclear weapons in response. 



#13
Alric

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This is why I was never really that worried about a major war with Russia or China. The US is way over on the other side of the ocean and so while we may be enemies at times, it makes little sense for us to seriously fight. China and Russia on the other hand are right next to each other. 



#14
Alislaws

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Russia will stay wary of China i think.

 

The reality is China has the highest population in the world, and Russia has the most land area and natural resources so China will always have a long term incentive to possibly take a chunk out of Russia. 

But China wouldn't do that because it would know that Russia might use nuclear weapons in response. 

 

Yeah, It would need some sort of asymmetry in missile defences between Russia/China to be likely. But even with MAD deterrents its something Russia have to think about and prepare for, and is going to colour their perceptions. 

 

Also by that logic any nation with nuclear weapons would need no other defense, which the nations of the world all seem to disagree with.

 

Also if China stole some of Russia, then Russia tried to nuke them, China would then nuke Russia right back. 

 

Essentially China might steal half of Russia and then Russia gets a choice

 

A) Accepting the loss

B) Nuke a billion Chinese people but have all Russia's major population centres nuked in return. 

 

Neither would be a good outcome but Russia is much better off under A) than under B)



#15
funkervogt

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Russia will stay wary of China i think.

 

The reality is China has the highest population in the world, and Russia has the most land area and natural resources so China will always have a long term incentive to possibly take a chunk out of Russia. 

But China wouldn't do that because it would know that Russia might use nuclear weapons in response. 

 

Yeah, It would need some sort of asymmetry in missile defences between Russia/China to be likely. But even with MAD deterrents its something Russia have to think about and prepare for, and is going to colour their perceptions. 

 

Also by that logic any nation with nuclear weapons would need no other defense, which the nations of the world all seem to disagree with.

 

Also if China stole some of Russia, then Russia tried to nuke them, China would then nuke Russia right back. 

 

Essentially China might steal half of Russia and then Russia gets a choice

 

A) Accepting the loss

B) Nuke a billion Chinese people but have all Russia's major population centres nuked in return. 

 

Neither would be a good outcome but Russia is much better off under A) than under B)

 

Yes, a military needs different weapons systems and conventional weapons in addition to WMDs to scale to different levels of threat. 

 

Nuclear missiles by themselves are no use if a foreign terrorist group stages a high-casualty attack within your country's borders, and the group is based in a distant country where its members are intermixed with the innocent populace. 

 

Similarly, if you are the leader of Russia, and China has invaded some part of your shared border, with conventional forces you could invade them at some other part of your shared border where they are weak, and then demand a land exchange at the peace table to restore the status quo ante. 


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#16
funkervogt

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Update: Russia just transferred several Su-35 fighter planes--considered Russia's most advanced--to China, knowing full well the latter will reverse-engineer it. The Russians had to do this because they're so short on cash, and because they know their opportunity to sell weapons to China is rapidly coming to a close due to the shrinking technological gap. 

 

https://www.janes.co...rcraft-to-china

 

FYI, the Russian Su-35 is considered as good as, or slightly better than, the American F-15. 

https://nationalinte...-who-wins-42307

 

F-15s still form the backbone of the U.S. Air Force's air supremacy fighter force; it has ~450 of them and only 187 of the more advanced F-22 fighters. 

https://en.wikipedia...litary_aircraft



#17
funkervogt

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China is retiring its old destroyers, which were copies of Soviet ships, and is replacing them with much larger, better, indigenously-designed ships. China's dependence on Russia for military technology is waning in every area. 

 

https://www.janes.co...-051-destroyers






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